There are two silver linings, as I see it. The first is that, under NFL guidelines, the Steelers will only be charged with one loss for Sunday night's game. Even though they performed worse than bad, they can still only get one loss from that game. They can't get like a loss and a tie or a credit for another loss that strikes a future win off the books or anything. Just one loss, so that's good. They deserve two or three for that performance, but they are only on the books for one.
The other good news is that everyone else in the division lost, so it's not like the Steelers lost any ground in the division. They may have had their confidence shattered and many fans may still be shell-shocked -- I know I was still pretty angry about the game as of last night, but I'm feeling less angry today -- but, as far as the division standings are concerned, basically nothing happened last week.
Other thoughts are not quite so optimistic. The Steelers just played very, very poorly on Sunday night. There weren't serious problems with their scheme, the Patriots did not provide the rest of the league with a "blueprint" to beat the Steelers, it was just a horrid performance on all fronts. The good news there is that, hopefully, the Steelers can just put the game behind them and focus on this week. There aren't wholesale changes that need to be made to the systems on offense and defense. The bad news there is that the, "Hey, guys, do you think you could just play better? Like, a lot better?" strategy doesn't usually work. Either the players play well or they don't. Just saying, "Play better," a lot doesn't make them better. If that worked, then there would be no bad teams in the league.
The Steelers aren't a bad team by any stretch. They're just not executing well of late on offense and defense. They've had a bunch of injuries and the offensive line may not be able to recover. The defensive line misses Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel in a big way. The offense, in general, is pretty broken and maybe thinking that throwing Ben Roethlisberger back in there would fix everything was like having a child to try to save a bad marriage. Losing Max Starks hurts the team, but at least they're getting healthier at all positions.
The defense didn't fall apart or start sucking overnight, they just didn't play well on Sunday. The idea that the way to beat the Steelers is to abandon the running game and pick them apart in the passing game underneath is not a new idea. Various teams -- especially the Patriots -- have used this strategy very effectively since the turn of the century. Many of the guys the Steelers have on defense have been in the line-up since the turn of the century, so it's unrealistic to think that their odds of actually stopping that strategy would improve with age.
They did a great job of not getting beat deep and punishing receivers underneath in 2008. They did a decent job on that front for most of 2009. The first few games this year, they did an exceptional job. Now, either they're starting to show their age, the injuries are starting to catch up with them, or both.
They're an old team that doesn't have a lot of quality depth. We knew that coming in, but we didn't know if key injuries were going to strike key positions and when those injuries were going to hit. Well, we're only nine games in and there have already been a couple, with the most notable ones to Smith and Starks.
I'm not declaring that the season is over, but I do think that all us Steeler fans now need to adjust our expectations for the season. When they started out hot, the defense looked unstoppable, and we just needed to wait for Ben to come back to have a complete team, a home playoff game and a first round bye looked realistic. They're still well-positioned and they still have three division games left on the schedule to create some separation, but Sunday night really hurt their chances. They also need to recover from the injuries they've suffered thus far and the reserves need to step up now that they're starters. They need to avoid more key injuries, which is pretty much impossible.
All of these things could conceivably happen. This team could have learned a thing or two from their collapse last season. But, they could be waiting for the other shoe to drop. They could have psyched themselves out so bad trying to avoid a collapse that a collapse is now unavoidable.
November is when you either start to pull away and establish yourself or when you collapse. In 2008, the Steelers pulled away and established. In 2009, they collapsed. I'm not sure what 2010 holds in store for the team, but I would put better odds on a collapse (with more injuries) than I would on a pull away/establish.
Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, this is not a complete team at this point. They are a damaged, splintered team and the AFC is too stacked on too many fronts for them to get very far in the playoffs, even if they were to make it. That could change if some pieces come together and reserves step up, but I doubt that it will happen. I'm obviously hoping that it will happen, but it's doubtful.
My father in-law thinks that they're done. He sees another late-season collapse and his official prediction is 9-7, with the Steelers missing the playoffs. Now that it's on the Internet, it's written in stone. I intend to hold him to that prediction, regardless of what happens.
I would say that 9-7 or 10-6 is a fair prediction at this point. But, I guess we'll see.
In other news, the Steelers cut Jeff Reed. I know he was having a bad season thus far, he was inconsistent at best, and he was 0 for 4 from 40-49 yards, which is a range where he's usually automatic. But... I keep thinking they cut him because of his mouth and his antics, not his foot. Sure, I guess there's a joke in there about him putting his foot in his mouth, but we're better than that.
I think it's a mistake for the balance of the season, but I also think that it's going to turn out to be a good move in the long term. Even though he was in a funk this year, he was still about as reliable as any other kicker in the league at Heinz Field, if not more accurate. The Steelers are going to be involved in more close games and they play four of their next seven at home (where they're surprisingly 2-2 and 4-1 on the road). They could've used Reed's accuracy and familiarity with Heinz Field for the rest of the year, then cut him loose at the end of the season.
Suisham -- I ended up Googling just his last name because I couldn't remember if his first name was Shawn, Shaun, or Todd -- isn't an improvement over Reed. He doesn't have a reputation as a clutch kicker and he doesn't have as much experience at Heinz Field. I mean, no one has as much experience at Heinz Field as Reed, but Suisham has played most of his career in the NFC, so he has less than a lot of guys that are out there.
He turns 29 in December, so maybe this is a decent long term move if he works out. I just don't think he's going to work out well enough for it to be worth it long term. So, in addtion to questions about the offensive line, whether or not Hines Ward will retire, whether or not half the defense will retire, and the whereabouts of Roethlisberger's penis, the 2011 offseason will involve the added question of who the Steelers will pick up to replace Reed.
I'm thinking it's a Vulva situation and they draft some dude in the fourth or fifth round. That's a good long term solution if that guy works out and it's a pretty crappy next few years -- Kris Brown, I'm looking at you -- if the guy doesn't.
I guess we will see.
No comments:
Post a Comment