Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win. The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired. As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."
The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going. All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.
I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened. They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course. I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.
I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games. I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover. I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.
I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham or Levi Brown in. I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.
But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions. Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.
The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there. In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.
They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone. They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense. They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice. They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.
They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working. They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home. I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.
Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason. They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go. They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.
Prediction:
Jets 17, Steelers 16
Friday, October 11, 2013
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Buctober: NLDS Preview
First off, let me say that Tuesday's Wild Card was an amazing game. The fans were insane, the players fed off that energy, and the Pirates took care of business. To some degree, the Reds choked, but the Pirates also dismantled Cincy and every key moment in the game swung in the Buccos favor.
If they can play like that the rest of the way, they'll not only win this series, they'll win it all.
Trouble is, I don't think that they can sustain what they did on Tuesday night.
St. Louis is more consistent and balanced. They finished 3rd in runs scored, 4th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging. They were also 5th in ERA and 8th in WHIP, and were in the top 15 in pretty much every other pitching category. They're not a team that needs to score a bunch of runs to win, but they're a team that can win a slugfest. They can also win tight, low-scoring games. They play exceptionally well at home and they get 3 out of 5 games at Busch Stadium.
They have a ton of players on the roster with extensive postseason experience. Talent usually trumps experience, as the Pirates proved on Tuesday night, but the Cardinals have more talent and more experience.
I don't think that the Wild Card game hurt the Pirates at all. If anything, it gave them the confidence and the experience they didn't have previously. Francisco Liriano will still get to pitch in the first three games -- Game 3 at PNC Park and he's much tougher at home than on the road -- and a starting threesome of AJ Burnett, Gerrit Cole, and Liriano is still very formidable. Maybe Burnett versus Wainwright today favors the Cardinals, but the pitchers don't go against each other. They go against the batters for the other team. As long as the Buccos do a better job of scoring runs against Wainwright than St. Louis does against Burnett, then AJ and the Pirates will win. The bullpen was barely touched on Tuesday, Mark Melacon didn't have to pitch, and Jason Grilli has two days rest.
The 4 seed vs. 1 seed matchup only concerns me in that the Pirates need to play three road games in a five games series, but they would've needed to play three road games regardless of who they drew.
I just think this Cardinals team is a bad matchup for them, despite the fact that the Pirates won the season series 10-9. They won most of those games at home and four of those wins came in a five game series at the end of July at PNC. If the Buccos had three home games and started off the series with two games in Pittsburgh, I'd pick them. This is a really close series, the games should be tight, and it's entirely possible that the Pirates could pull it off.
As a lifetime Pirate fan, I've spent my time hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. It could be that's clouding my mindset and opinion now, because there's something knawing at me that says the Buccos hold the advantage in terms of talent, pitching, and matchups and have enough of an advantage to overcome the fact that St. Louis has homefield.
If they can split the first two games in St. Louis, then they have a real shot. If they can't split those games -- I think they lost both of them -- then the Cardinals can split the next two games in Pittsburgh. If they split in St. Louis, then it's very possible that they could use that momentum to close out things at home.
I don't think it'll happen that way, so I'm going to go Cardinals in 4.
HOWEVER, if the Buccos do happen to beat the Cardinals, I like their chances to advance to the World Series. I think that they have the pitching depth and building confidence to take on the Braves or Dodgers. I will be rooting for them to take this series and advance to the NLCS (then the World Series!), but expecting them to fall flat on their face in Missouri.
BONUS COVERAGE:
My buddy Keith, who knows everything about baseball, completely disagrees with me. I asked him for his prediction (without first telling him that I was going to try and quote him on it) and he had this to say:
"The Cardinals offense is not intimidating without Allen Craig, particularly since the only reason they won the division was an absurd team performance with RISP. Plus, the Pirates all believe that they are a part of something special while this is just another postseason for the Cards.
The Braves are virtually unbeatable at home for some reason. The Dodgers have won 60 of their last 90 games. Both teams have absolute shutdown closers. LA wields the extra threat of Clayton Kershaw, but the Pirates have handled Zack Greinke pretty well over the years. I think whoever wins the Atl/LA series wins the NL."
So, I'm hoping for the best, that Keith is right. Like he usually is.
If they can play like that the rest of the way, they'll not only win this series, they'll win it all.
Trouble is, I don't think that they can sustain what they did on Tuesday night.
St. Louis is more consistent and balanced. They finished 3rd in runs scored, 4th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging. They were also 5th in ERA and 8th in WHIP, and were in the top 15 in pretty much every other pitching category. They're not a team that needs to score a bunch of runs to win, but they're a team that can win a slugfest. They can also win tight, low-scoring games. They play exceptionally well at home and they get 3 out of 5 games at Busch Stadium.
They have a ton of players on the roster with extensive postseason experience. Talent usually trumps experience, as the Pirates proved on Tuesday night, but the Cardinals have more talent and more experience.
I don't think that the Wild Card game hurt the Pirates at all. If anything, it gave them the confidence and the experience they didn't have previously. Francisco Liriano will still get to pitch in the first three games -- Game 3 at PNC Park and he's much tougher at home than on the road -- and a starting threesome of AJ Burnett, Gerrit Cole, and Liriano is still very formidable. Maybe Burnett versus Wainwright today favors the Cardinals, but the pitchers don't go against each other. They go against the batters for the other team. As long as the Buccos do a better job of scoring runs against Wainwright than St. Louis does against Burnett, then AJ and the Pirates will win. The bullpen was barely touched on Tuesday, Mark Melacon didn't have to pitch, and Jason Grilli has two days rest.
The 4 seed vs. 1 seed matchup only concerns me in that the Pirates need to play three road games in a five games series, but they would've needed to play three road games regardless of who they drew.
I just think this Cardinals team is a bad matchup for them, despite the fact that the Pirates won the season series 10-9. They won most of those games at home and four of those wins came in a five game series at the end of July at PNC. If the Buccos had three home games and started off the series with two games in Pittsburgh, I'd pick them. This is a really close series, the games should be tight, and it's entirely possible that the Pirates could pull it off.
As a lifetime Pirate fan, I've spent my time hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. It could be that's clouding my mindset and opinion now, because there's something knawing at me that says the Buccos hold the advantage in terms of talent, pitching, and matchups and have enough of an advantage to overcome the fact that St. Louis has homefield.
If they can split the first two games in St. Louis, then they have a real shot. If they can't split those games -- I think they lost both of them -- then the Cardinals can split the next two games in Pittsburgh. If they split in St. Louis, then it's very possible that they could use that momentum to close out things at home.
I don't think it'll happen that way, so I'm going to go Cardinals in 4.
HOWEVER, if the Buccos do happen to beat the Cardinals, I like their chances to advance to the World Series. I think that they have the pitching depth and building confidence to take on the Braves or Dodgers. I will be rooting for them to take this series and advance to the NLCS (then the World Series!), but expecting them to fall flat on their face in Missouri.
BONUS COVERAGE:
My buddy Keith, who knows everything about baseball, completely disagrees with me. I asked him for his prediction (without first telling him that I was going to try and quote him on it) and he had this to say:
"The Cardinals offense is not intimidating without Allen Craig, particularly since the only reason they won the division was an absurd team performance with RISP. Plus, the Pirates all believe that they are a part of something special while this is just another postseason for the Cards.
The Braves are virtually unbeatable at home for some reason. The Dodgers have won 60 of their last 90 games. Both teams have absolute shutdown closers. LA wields the extra threat of Clayton Kershaw, but the Pirates have handled Zack Greinke pretty well over the years. I think whoever wins the Atl/LA series wins the NL."
So, I'm hoping for the best, that Keith is right. Like he usually is.
Friday, September 20, 2013
Heisenberged: Bears at Steelers Preview
OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game. I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time. I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later. I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already. If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.
I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot. I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.
After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team. That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked). New England was defending its title. That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.
The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem. The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other. Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination. There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there. Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through. If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through. That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.
The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays. I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him. If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury. If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure. Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense. He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball. They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays. If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence. Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays. I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that. I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk. That might not happen this season.
The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones. Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw. Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6. If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense. But, they still don't have enough. They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense. Right now, they're playing it safe. They're playing not to lose. Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau. These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.
These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays. I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team. Both seasons had similar vibes to them. Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games). They needed to develop and gain confidence.
Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10. Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.
Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play. They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes. The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.
I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.
Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13
I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot. I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.
After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team. That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked). New England was defending its title. That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.
The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem. The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other. Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination. There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there. Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through. If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through. That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.
The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays. I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him. If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury. If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure. Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense. He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball. They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays. If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence. Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays. I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that. I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk. That might not happen this season.
The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones. Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw. Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6. If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense. But, they still don't have enough. They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense. Right now, they're playing it safe. They're playing not to lose. Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau. These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.
These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays. I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team. Both seasons had similar vibes to them. Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games). They needed to develop and gain confidence.
Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10. Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.
Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play. They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes. The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.
I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.
Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13
Friday, September 06, 2013
Remember the Titans... Suck: Titans at Steelers Preview
Holy crap. There hasn't been a post on the ol' SteelersNAt blog since August 15th. I would've thought August 26th, but what do I know.
Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.
I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season. They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14. So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek. Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season. And that doesn't make any sense.
What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter). I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.
Consider:
Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.
I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season. They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14. So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek. Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season. And that doesn't make any sense.
What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter). I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.
Consider:
- Chris Johnson can break a big play at any time.
- Kenny Britt had his first big game against the Steelers and Nate Washington has big play potential (or at least he did at one point and maybe he's still mad that he doesn't play for Pittsburgh anymore).
- The Titans defense is young and opportunistic. Better yet, they're young, inexperienced, and undisciplined, so maybe the cornerbacks will jump routes and miss, allowing a big play on the back end. Maybe they'll jump routes and hit, making a big play.
- Ben Roethlisberger is quirky and unpredictable. If they start to struggle running the ball early on -- and they probably will -- then Roethlisberger might decide to let it rip.
- This year's defense can't possibly be worse at forcing turnovers than last year's... can it?
On the other side of all this is the fact that neither team's offensive line looks like it's all the way together yet. That's a wild card in that it could lead to a lot of big plays -- strip-sacks and whatnot -- or it could lead to a lot of futility and three-and-outs.
The good news is that Tennessee doesn't have a very good team and they're in Year Two of a pretty painful four year rebuilding process. They may be competitive and dangerous eventually, but not now. Their front seven has been repeatedly gutted by free agency and Bernard Pollard might be their best player in the secondary. On offense, Jake Locker is a great athlete, but he's a terrible quarterback. The Steelers tend to feast on terrible quarterbacks. Despite the nice things I said about Britt and Washington, those guys are a couple of oft-injured, wildly inconsistent "upside guys" that keep getting chances because someone is dumb enough to believe that they'll put it all together eventually if they just get enough chances.
Chris Johnson is the guy to fear, even if he's been underwhelming the past two or three seasons. He's still explosive, still super fast, and can still break off a long touchdown at any moment. The Titans are going to feed him the ball because they have no other real option. If he gets enough chances, he'll break a big gain eventually. The Steelers just need to stay focused, maintain their lanes on defense, and practice sound tackling fundamentals.
The Steelers are an average team, but the Titans are a bad team. The fact that Roethlisberger is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the league lifts the Steelers from being below average to just average. If they can't beat Tennessee, then they are a bad team (I don't care if the Titans finish with a winning record, bad teams can get lucky as these same Titans did in 2011).
In order to not embarrass themselves, the Steelers need to win this game. If they can get off to a winning start, they'll enter next week with more confidence -- and they'll need all the help they can get against the Bengals. If they lose this week, they could very well open up the season 0-3. If they split their non-division conference games (home against the Titans, at Miami), go 3-1 against the atrocious AFC East (yes, this means they're going to lose at home to the Patriots; I've accepted it, the sooner you do the better for your sanity), split their division games, and split with their non-conference games (a pretty up-in-the-air NFC North), then they're looking at a 9-7 season.
Maybe they catch some breaks, beat the Dolphins and go 4-2 in the division, that puts them at 11-5.
The X-Factor this season is the guys they've drafted since 2010. There are only four guys on the roster from the 2006-2009 draft classes -- Woodley, Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and David Johnson. There are five players still on the roster from the 2002-2005 draft classes -- Ben, Troy, Keisel, Ike Taylor, and Heath. With no young veterans stepping up -- and the guys from those 2006-2009 classes should all be playing vital roles on the team, making up the core group of talented skill position players -- they have a bunch of old guys that need to keep playing at a high level and really young guys that need to grow up in a hurry. Assuming that the old guard doesn't fall apart this season -- and, aside from Troy missing at least 5-6 games every season with various injuries, it doesn't look like they will fall apart -- then it's up to the 2010-Present draft classes to make up that talent gap and deliver.
If they can deliver in a big way, then you're looking at a 12-4 or 13-3 season. I don't think they're all going to deliver in a big way. I think some of them will make a big leap forward, some of them will be average, and some of them will fall off. When that happens, you're looking at 8-8 or 7-9 or 9-7. If injuries keep mounting and the depth of this team is really tested, then it's a 6-10 or 5-11 situation, but I don't think that's going to happen.
They're an average team and they're going to finish with an average record. They'll do slightly better or worse depending on luck. I've seen so many successful seasons in the last decade or so that I really don't care how well (or not) they do during the regular season. I believe that there's a big enough talent gap between them and the favorites from the AFC that I know they won't advance to (and win) the Super Bowl. If they're not going to win the Super Bowl and are probably going to be average, I just don't want to be bored when it's happening.
It all starts on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and, the good lord willing, it will be exciting.
Thursday, August 15, 2013
ArenaBowl XXVI Preview
Wow...and just like that, we're back to Arena Bowl time again. That means the end of Arena season for another year, and the beginning of the NFL. But, not to get ahead of things - there's still an Arena Bowl to enjoy. This year, there will be an extra bonus to the coverage - and that's the fact that Keller and I are actually going to be at the game.
It was all a random series of events that included me saying, "Dude...we should just drive down to Orlando. <ha-ha>" and Keller saying, "<lol> Yeah, we should."
Then we discovered that pretty much the same seats we have at Consol were available for this game and we called each other's bluff. So...we're going. The only thing more exciting is the fact that the match-up is between two teams we actually give a shit about: Our division rival Philadelphia Soul and a team called the Arizona Rattlers (I might have mentioned that I'm a fan.)
The astute among you may notice that these are the same two teams that met up last year - and this is the first time that has ever happened. So, what should we expect this time around? Well, last year, the Rattlers came into the Arena Bowl after being narrowly beaten by the Sharks the year before, and the Soul came in with only one or two players who had ever been to the big show before. The Ratts owned the field from the word go, Dan Raudabaugh looked like a dear in headlights, and Brackins got shut down. By the end of the night, Arizona routed the Soul, and their media guys quickly began to regret starting this crap before the playoffs started.
This season, the Rattlers have owned the Soul, beating them in both meetings. The Latin Laser, Nick Davila, has been money, Odie Armstrong has been rumbling into the end zone, guys like Poots are making plays, and their defense has been solid. The only team to really threaten them was the Shock, and they put that threat to bed last week...but I'm not as confident as I should be.
First of all, the Soul got brought to Jesus last year, and I think they got woken up. They know what they're in for and they're ready for the bright lights. If Dirty Dan was going to get the yips, he might have gotten that out of his system a few weeks ago when he threw 5 interceptions in one game. I just see them being a stronger team this time around. But, it's not just them I'm worried about.
The Rattlers might be the ones getting cocky this year. It's their third Arena Bowl in a row, they've already beaten the Soul twice this season, and they pasted them last year. Also, they've been held up as the league's golden children all season (there was some unfounded sour grapes rumors that the league was intentionally trying to force a dynasty) and have been basically made out to not be able to lose. Well...they can.
Aside from the fact that it is very hard to beat a team three times in a season - in this league or the outdoor one - there's also the concern behind center. Last week, Davila took a pretty vicious hit to his throwing arm - the same arm he had surgery on during the off season. After that, you could see that every throw was agony. I haven't seen any word as to how bad it was or even if it's still an issue - but I know that the Rattlers are going to start him, no matter what. If it's not 100%, that's a huge loss. Even if it's functionally 100%, it's a weak point that could get injured again during the game.
I also have concerns given the fact that Boss Ross has been near-unstoppable this year (which isn't to say that AZ's Armstrong hasn't been - he just hasn't put up nearly the same numbers) and Brackins has been returning to form. Also, Philly didn't have Tiger last year. Although he was all but shut down last week, this is the stage that dancing fool was made for.
The bottom line is that the Rattlers should win this one, but their worst enemy is themselves. If they come in like they're owed a victory, they will lose. If Davila's arm gives out, they will probably lose. But if they bear down, focus and play it like any other week, they can win.
Plus, Philly pulled out this crap right before the playoffs.
Stay tuned for after this weekend, when Keller and I will post a follow-up with our experiences and pictures. Plus, look for us on TV - we'll be the idiots wearing our Power jerseys five rows up from the field.
It was all a random series of events that included me saying, "Dude...we should just drive down to Orlando. <ha-ha>" and Keller saying, "<lol> Yeah, we should."
Then we discovered that pretty much the same seats we have at Consol were available for this game and we called each other's bluff. So...we're going. The only thing more exciting is the fact that the match-up is between two teams we actually give a shit about: Our division rival Philadelphia Soul and a team called the Arizona Rattlers (I might have mentioned that I'm a fan.)
The astute among you may notice that these are the same two teams that met up last year - and this is the first time that has ever happened. So, what should we expect this time around? Well, last year, the Rattlers came into the Arena Bowl after being narrowly beaten by the Sharks the year before, and the Soul came in with only one or two players who had ever been to the big show before. The Ratts owned the field from the word go, Dan Raudabaugh looked like a dear in headlights, and Brackins got shut down. By the end of the night, Arizona routed the Soul, and their media guys quickly began to regret starting this crap before the playoffs started.
This season, the Rattlers have owned the Soul, beating them in both meetings. The Latin Laser, Nick Davila, has been money, Odie Armstrong has been rumbling into the end zone, guys like Poots are making plays, and their defense has been solid. The only team to really threaten them was the Shock, and they put that threat to bed last week...but I'm not as confident as I should be.
First of all, the Soul got brought to Jesus last year, and I think they got woken up. They know what they're in for and they're ready for the bright lights. If Dirty Dan was going to get the yips, he might have gotten that out of his system a few weeks ago when he threw 5 interceptions in one game. I just see them being a stronger team this time around. But, it's not just them I'm worried about.
The Rattlers might be the ones getting cocky this year. It's their third Arena Bowl in a row, they've already beaten the Soul twice this season, and they pasted them last year. Also, they've been held up as the league's golden children all season (there was some unfounded sour grapes rumors that the league was intentionally trying to force a dynasty) and have been basically made out to not be able to lose. Well...they can.
Aside from the fact that it is very hard to beat a team three times in a season - in this league or the outdoor one - there's also the concern behind center. Last week, Davila took a pretty vicious hit to his throwing arm - the same arm he had surgery on during the off season. After that, you could see that every throw was agony. I haven't seen any word as to how bad it was or even if it's still an issue - but I know that the Rattlers are going to start him, no matter what. If it's not 100%, that's a huge loss. Even if it's functionally 100%, it's a weak point that could get injured again during the game.
I also have concerns given the fact that Boss Ross has been near-unstoppable this year (which isn't to say that AZ's Armstrong hasn't been - he just hasn't put up nearly the same numbers) and Brackins has been returning to form. Also, Philly didn't have Tiger last year. Although he was all but shut down last week, this is the stage that dancing fool was made for.
The bottom line is that the Rattlers should win this one, but their worst enemy is themselves. If they come in like they're owed a victory, they will lose. If Davila's arm gives out, they will probably lose. But if they bear down, focus and play it like any other week, they can win.
Plus, Philly pulled out this crap right before the playoffs.
Stay tuned for after this weekend, when Keller and I will post a follow-up with our experiences and pictures. Plus, look for us on TV - we'll be the idiots wearing our Power jerseys five rows up from the field.
Saturday, August 10, 2013
Preseason Watchlist: Steelers vs. Giants
I have to say that the preseason snuck up on me this year. I could've sworn that the draft just happened, then suddenly I turn around and Training Camp is opening.
Here's what I'm going to be watching for tonight, since it doesn't make sense to put much stock in who wins and loses. It's only the preseason, but there are some interesting things to watch.
Zone Blocking Scheme:
They're implementing a new blocking scheme this year and it's a zone blocking scheme instead of the traditional "everyone has a guy they're assigned to block" scheme that they've used since The Chief bought the team.
It's a change in strategy, but the word on the street is that it's not Todd Haley's idea/fault. The Steelers wanted to move to this kind of blocking scheme since 2011, but they didn't have the athletes at tackle to pull it off.
This is just for the running game, not the passing game. The idea is that, unlike a man blocking scheme, where you "put a hat on a hat" and everyone blocks their assigned guy, each lineman is responsible for a zone and needs to block anyone that is in that zone/comes into that zone. The tackles push to the sidelines and interior linemen push towards the middle of the field. In theory, that creates seams and cut-back lanes in the defense that the running backs will then be able to run through.
Honestly, I don't think we have the athletes at running back to pull this off, but I am willing to try anything that will improve the running game. In this blocking scheme, the running back needs to have great short area quickness to burst through the seams and cut-back lanes, excellent vision to see those openings develop, and good decision-making ability (or at least the ability to make quick decisions and commit to them) so that he hits the hole before it closes. No one on the roster in 2012 fits that bill, with the possible exception of Rashard Mendenhall. He might have been a good fit, but he's now in Arizona. Word is that Le'Veon Bell has the right kind of skillset to run behind this scheme and be successful, so that's another thing to watch.
The Rookies:
Really, there are two rookie classes to evaluate in this game, since DeCastro and Adams were hurt most of last season, third round pick Sean Spence missed all of last season on injured reserve, and Alameda Ta'amu went on a drunken rampage through South Side, which hurt his chances to crack the line-up.
Adams and DeCastro will be in starting roles and it'll be nice to see them in action, along with the fact that they'll be working in the new zone blocking scheme. Spence and Ta'amu will be playing more, because they're lower on the depth chart, but they're both playing positions -- Spence at inside linebacker and Ta'amu at defensive tackle -- where there isn't an entrenched, established guy. If they play well, they could unseat the guy in front of them on the depth chart, which is always interesting to watch.
I mentioned Bell, who has apparently had a great camp. Jarvis Jones has also done extremely well by all accounts and I'm most excited to see him play. I really need to see him step into the void that James Harrison left behind, especially since I don't trust Jason Worilds any farther than I can throw him.
Since all the cornerbacks on the roster are working through some type of injury, Shamarko Thomas will be playing nickel back with the first team defense tonight. I'm really looking forward to seeing him play. His natural position is safety, but if he can also help out as a nickel cornerback, then that's another thing he can do to help this team. Ryan Clark and Troy aren't getting any younger, Ryan Mundy will be on the other team's sideline, and it would be super nice if this kid stepped up and started playing well from the get-go.
Rookie receivers Justin Brown and Markus Wheaton should get a lot of work, since there are now open spots at 4th and 5th receiver after the Plaxico Burress injury. There are actually a lot of warm bodies at the position -- there are 11 guys in total, counting Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, and Plax, who probably won't have to fight for their roster spots -- and I'm hoping that this fosters competition for remaining roster spots. The more tough decisions these young guys can make the coaches make, the better the depth at the position.
Explosive Plays:
The Steelers were a really, really boring team last year. They didn't generate a lot of explosive plays on offense and they played things ultra-conservative on defense. Dick LeBeau knew that he didn't have the personnel to take a lot of chances and try to make a lot of splash plays, so he tried to teach the guys on defense to keep everything in front of them and not be a hero. The result was that they didn't allow a lot of 20+, 30+, or 40+ yard plays, but they also didn't record a lot of sacks or force very many turnovers.
On offense, they were hesitant to stretch the field and go for the big play and their running backs were mostly "two yards and a cloud of dust" guys that didn't get yards in chunks.
You ended up with an 8-8 team that played vanilla games that didn't feature many big plays on offense or defense, not a lot of sacks or turnovers, and a lot of low-scoring slugfests. The 2009 Steelers finished 8-8, but at least they were exciting. They forced turnovers like crazy, turned the ball over like crazy, and big plays were all over the place. Another team like that may kill me, but it's a chance I'm wiling to take.
At this point, I suspect that the 2013 Steelers will finish anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8 and I'm prepared for that. I just don't want it to be boring.
What I'm looking for tonight is whether or not the young kids have the swagger and the skill to go out and try and make something happen. They may let up some big plays, they may make some big plays, but in the end what I'm looking for is something interesting and exciting. With the number of players that are going to either retire or get cut in the next couple of seasons, I want to see what this next generation is made of.
No Injuries:
Just wanted to make sure I said it. As long as we make it through tonight without anyone getting seriously hurt, that's a net win.
Here's what I'm going to be watching for tonight, since it doesn't make sense to put much stock in who wins and loses. It's only the preseason, but there are some interesting things to watch.
Zone Blocking Scheme:
They're implementing a new blocking scheme this year and it's a zone blocking scheme instead of the traditional "everyone has a guy they're assigned to block" scheme that they've used since The Chief bought the team.
It's a change in strategy, but the word on the street is that it's not Todd Haley's idea/fault. The Steelers wanted to move to this kind of blocking scheme since 2011, but they didn't have the athletes at tackle to pull it off.
This is just for the running game, not the passing game. The idea is that, unlike a man blocking scheme, where you "put a hat on a hat" and everyone blocks their assigned guy, each lineman is responsible for a zone and needs to block anyone that is in that zone/comes into that zone. The tackles push to the sidelines and interior linemen push towards the middle of the field. In theory, that creates seams and cut-back lanes in the defense that the running backs will then be able to run through.
Honestly, I don't think we have the athletes at running back to pull this off, but I am willing to try anything that will improve the running game. In this blocking scheme, the running back needs to have great short area quickness to burst through the seams and cut-back lanes, excellent vision to see those openings develop, and good decision-making ability (or at least the ability to make quick decisions and commit to them) so that he hits the hole before it closes. No one on the roster in 2012 fits that bill, with the possible exception of Rashard Mendenhall. He might have been a good fit, but he's now in Arizona. Word is that Le'Veon Bell has the right kind of skillset to run behind this scheme and be successful, so that's another thing to watch.
The Rookies:
Really, there are two rookie classes to evaluate in this game, since DeCastro and Adams were hurt most of last season, third round pick Sean Spence missed all of last season on injured reserve, and Alameda Ta'amu went on a drunken rampage through South Side, which hurt his chances to crack the line-up.
Adams and DeCastro will be in starting roles and it'll be nice to see them in action, along with the fact that they'll be working in the new zone blocking scheme. Spence and Ta'amu will be playing more, because they're lower on the depth chart, but they're both playing positions -- Spence at inside linebacker and Ta'amu at defensive tackle -- where there isn't an entrenched, established guy. If they play well, they could unseat the guy in front of them on the depth chart, which is always interesting to watch.
I mentioned Bell, who has apparently had a great camp. Jarvis Jones has also done extremely well by all accounts and I'm most excited to see him play. I really need to see him step into the void that James Harrison left behind, especially since I don't trust Jason Worilds any farther than I can throw him.
Since all the cornerbacks on the roster are working through some type of injury, Shamarko Thomas will be playing nickel back with the first team defense tonight. I'm really looking forward to seeing him play. His natural position is safety, but if he can also help out as a nickel cornerback, then that's another thing he can do to help this team. Ryan Clark and Troy aren't getting any younger, Ryan Mundy will be on the other team's sideline, and it would be super nice if this kid stepped up and started playing well from the get-go.
Rookie receivers Justin Brown and Markus Wheaton should get a lot of work, since there are now open spots at 4th and 5th receiver after the Plaxico Burress injury. There are actually a lot of warm bodies at the position -- there are 11 guys in total, counting Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, and Plax, who probably won't have to fight for their roster spots -- and I'm hoping that this fosters competition for remaining roster spots. The more tough decisions these young guys can make the coaches make, the better the depth at the position.
Explosive Plays:
The Steelers were a really, really boring team last year. They didn't generate a lot of explosive plays on offense and they played things ultra-conservative on defense. Dick LeBeau knew that he didn't have the personnel to take a lot of chances and try to make a lot of splash plays, so he tried to teach the guys on defense to keep everything in front of them and not be a hero. The result was that they didn't allow a lot of 20+, 30+, or 40+ yard plays, but they also didn't record a lot of sacks or force very many turnovers.
On offense, they were hesitant to stretch the field and go for the big play and their running backs were mostly "two yards and a cloud of dust" guys that didn't get yards in chunks.
You ended up with an 8-8 team that played vanilla games that didn't feature many big plays on offense or defense, not a lot of sacks or turnovers, and a lot of low-scoring slugfests. The 2009 Steelers finished 8-8, but at least they were exciting. They forced turnovers like crazy, turned the ball over like crazy, and big plays were all over the place. Another team like that may kill me, but it's a chance I'm wiling to take.
At this point, I suspect that the 2013 Steelers will finish anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8 and I'm prepared for that. I just don't want it to be boring.
What I'm looking for tonight is whether or not the young kids have the swagger and the skill to go out and try and make something happen. They may let up some big plays, they may make some big plays, but in the end what I'm looking for is something interesting and exciting. With the number of players that are going to either retire or get cut in the next couple of seasons, I want to see what this next generation is made of.
No Injuries:
Just wanted to make sure I said it. As long as we make it through tonight without anyone getting seriously hurt, that's a net win.
Friday, August 09, 2013
Buccos Fever: Time to Catch It
(Editor's Note: When I got home from work, I was bound and determined to write a positive post about the Pirates and I'm gonna do it. Even though they're currently losing to the Rockies by 4 after 1 inning.)
I've been doing everything I normally do throughout the course of a Pirates season: Going to games, watching a few here and there on TV, keeping track of stats and trends to see if they're playing over their heads, under their heads, or about where they should be. This season, I did all these things wincing, with one eye closed. That's because I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for them to blow it all by collapsing.
Well, they're 114 games in, they have the best record in baseball, and they already have 70 wins. They could go 12-36 for the remainder of the season and still finish above .500. If they continue at their current pace, then close out the season 9-23 like they did last season when they were in full Collapse Mode, they'll still win 89 games.
I've stopped wincing and I have both eyes open. That actually happened a while ago, but I assumed that the reason they hadn't started their collapse yet was because I was keeping my big mouth shut.
OK... at this point I am going to guarantee that the Pirates win 82 games this year. There, I said it.
Here's the thing: This team isn't thinking about 82 wins, they're thinking playoffs. They're trying to win the division and will settle for the Wild Card. Sure, there was a lot of lip service paid to this idea -- most notably by Clint Hurdle -- but now I get the sense that they actually believe it. I think this is a team that's confident and expects to win. That's a huge change between now and the past 20 years or so.
They're playing better defense. Russell Martin alone has thrown out more base stealers already this season than Rod Barajas and Mike McKenry combined did all of last season (27-19). Pedro Alvarez has shown more range and his glove work has improved dramatically; he just needs to work out the kinks on his throw to first. Starling Marte has settled in at left field, Cutch is playing his usual stellar defense in center, and Neil Walker isn't letting his struggles at the plate affect his fielding.
The bullpen isn't as over-worked as they were last season. Provided he comes back healthy, Jason Grilli will be well-rested for the posteason and they'll have a great back-up closer and eighth inning set-up man in Mark Melacon. There really isn't a weak link and, even though the Pirates are 22nd in Quality Starts, you get the feeling that the bullpen is being used correctly, not that Hurdle is going to the well too early too often.
The starting pitching has been very efficient and AJ Burnett hasn't had to carry the staff. James McDonald wasted no time imploding and they've been able to get along very well without him. Guys like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Brandon Cumpton, and Jeanmar Gomez have filled in admirably and I can see one of them becoming a long reliever when the roster expands in September.
(Well, crap. The Rockies are now winning 7-1 in the bottom of the second. I'm still going through with this.)
On offense... well, the offense has been pretty dreadful. They're 21st in runs, 22nd in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging percentage. Those numbers have actually improved in the last month or so. However, the big issue last season was that they were hot and cold and relied too much on timely hitting. Their numbers have stabilized this season and even Pedro has been more consistent. With runners in scoring position, Cutch and Walker have taken a big step down and everyone else has had to pick up the slack. That means that they don't have that one guy you need to be afraid of, but it also means that someone different can (and has) step up every night.
They still have a major hole in right field, where they're dead last in OPS at that position. Travis Snider probably did us all a favor when his .219 average and .609 OPS went on the DL, but Jose Tabata and Alex Presley haven't been much better. Presley has one freakin' walk in 66 plate appearances and the two have combined for only 18 extra base hits. After they stood pat at the trade deadline and with Alex Rios getting traded from the White Sox to the Rangers, it looks like there aren't any options on the open market. I think they'll need to give the Tabata/Presley platoon a couple more weeks, then call in Andrew Lambo. They have nowhere to go but up, OPS-wise.
Right field OPS will either stay at its current horrid state or improve. If Neil Walker can get back up in the .280 or .290 range, that would be a huge boost. Cutch is really starting to catch fire and Pedro's due for another hot streak. They've already overcome some pretty significant injuries to their starting pitching and bullpen and might be able to overcome more (though I really hope no one else gets hurt, please). Their prospects -- either guys they drafted or guys they traded for -- have paid off and they're finally starting to hit on bargain free agents and low risk trades (Martin and Francisco Liriano this year, AJ Burnett last season).
I think that success is sustainable for the next 48 games and I think it's sustainable beyond this season. They've quietly "crept up" to 19th in payroll and they're spending almost four times what the 30th-ranked team (Astros) is spending.
These aren't your father's Pirates. Well, maybe your father's Pirates won the World Series, I'm not sure how old you are. I mean, my father's Pirates won the World Series. They're not your older sibling's Pirates when you were a "change of life" baby.
They're your Pittsburgh Pirates and it's time to catch Bucco Fever.
(FOR THE LOVE OF- now it's 10-1.)
I've been doing everything I normally do throughout the course of a Pirates season: Going to games, watching a few here and there on TV, keeping track of stats and trends to see if they're playing over their heads, under their heads, or about where they should be. This season, I did all these things wincing, with one eye closed. That's because I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for them to blow it all by collapsing.
Well, they're 114 games in, they have the best record in baseball, and they already have 70 wins. They could go 12-36 for the remainder of the season and still finish above .500. If they continue at their current pace, then close out the season 9-23 like they did last season when they were in full Collapse Mode, they'll still win 89 games.
I've stopped wincing and I have both eyes open. That actually happened a while ago, but I assumed that the reason they hadn't started their collapse yet was because I was keeping my big mouth shut.
OK... at this point I am going to guarantee that the Pirates win 82 games this year. There, I said it.
Here's the thing: This team isn't thinking about 82 wins, they're thinking playoffs. They're trying to win the division and will settle for the Wild Card. Sure, there was a lot of lip service paid to this idea -- most notably by Clint Hurdle -- but now I get the sense that they actually believe it. I think this is a team that's confident and expects to win. That's a huge change between now and the past 20 years or so.
They're playing better defense. Russell Martin alone has thrown out more base stealers already this season than Rod Barajas and Mike McKenry combined did all of last season (27-19). Pedro Alvarez has shown more range and his glove work has improved dramatically; he just needs to work out the kinks on his throw to first. Starling Marte has settled in at left field, Cutch is playing his usual stellar defense in center, and Neil Walker isn't letting his struggles at the plate affect his fielding.
The bullpen isn't as over-worked as they were last season. Provided he comes back healthy, Jason Grilli will be well-rested for the posteason and they'll have a great back-up closer and eighth inning set-up man in Mark Melacon. There really isn't a weak link and, even though the Pirates are 22nd in Quality Starts, you get the feeling that the bullpen is being used correctly, not that Hurdle is going to the well too early too often.
The starting pitching has been very efficient and AJ Burnett hasn't had to carry the staff. James McDonald wasted no time imploding and they've been able to get along very well without him. Guys like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Brandon Cumpton, and Jeanmar Gomez have filled in admirably and I can see one of them becoming a long reliever when the roster expands in September.
(Well, crap. The Rockies are now winning 7-1 in the bottom of the second. I'm still going through with this.)
On offense... well, the offense has been pretty dreadful. They're 21st in runs, 22nd in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging percentage. Those numbers have actually improved in the last month or so. However, the big issue last season was that they were hot and cold and relied too much on timely hitting. Their numbers have stabilized this season and even Pedro has been more consistent. With runners in scoring position, Cutch and Walker have taken a big step down and everyone else has had to pick up the slack. That means that they don't have that one guy you need to be afraid of, but it also means that someone different can (and has) step up every night.
They still have a major hole in right field, where they're dead last in OPS at that position. Travis Snider probably did us all a favor when his .219 average and .609 OPS went on the DL, but Jose Tabata and Alex Presley haven't been much better. Presley has one freakin' walk in 66 plate appearances and the two have combined for only 18 extra base hits. After they stood pat at the trade deadline and with Alex Rios getting traded from the White Sox to the Rangers, it looks like there aren't any options on the open market. I think they'll need to give the Tabata/Presley platoon a couple more weeks, then call in Andrew Lambo. They have nowhere to go but up, OPS-wise.
Right field OPS will either stay at its current horrid state or improve. If Neil Walker can get back up in the .280 or .290 range, that would be a huge boost. Cutch is really starting to catch fire and Pedro's due for another hot streak. They've already overcome some pretty significant injuries to their starting pitching and bullpen and might be able to overcome more (though I really hope no one else gets hurt, please). Their prospects -- either guys they drafted or guys they traded for -- have paid off and they're finally starting to hit on bargain free agents and low risk trades (Martin and Francisco Liriano this year, AJ Burnett last season).
I think that success is sustainable for the next 48 games and I think it's sustainable beyond this season. They've quietly "crept up" to 19th in payroll and they're spending almost four times what the 30th-ranked team (Astros) is spending.
These aren't your father's Pirates. Well, maybe your father's Pirates won the World Series, I'm not sure how old you are. I mean, my father's Pirates won the World Series. They're not your older sibling's Pirates when you were a "change of life" baby.
They're your Pittsburgh Pirates and it's time to catch Bucco Fever.
(FOR THE LOVE OF- now it's 10-1.)
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Sabercats at Power: Final home game
Pretty much, it's all over but the crying at this point.
Technically, the Power is still playoff eligible, but we would need to
win out and have the Predators lose out. Not gonna happen, but we can
dream.
If nothing else, this weekend will be one last chance to see the Power play at home for the season and -- win or lose -- Sabercats games are fun. Defying all logic, we've always matched up very well against them, despite them being way out of our league. The games are generally close, and we've been capable of winning against them.
So, we should just sit back, relax, and watch some football. It's going to be a short and sweet post, but that's because everything's been said before. Next week, we'll have a better idea of the playoffs and we can get back to it.
The Sabercats are led by one Russ Michna, known primarily as being the long-time QB of the Chicago Rush and looking just like Keller's brother. I'm still not sure why Chicago decided to part ways with him, but their loss has been San Jose's gain. Once they kicked Aaron Garcia all the way back to Florida, Michna turned their offense around. He's accurate and mobile, with the experience that makes him hard to rattle.
Our offense really hasn't been the same since Jason Willis left, and unfortunately, his return is going to be on the wrong side of the line. He already has 31 TDs with the Cats, and I'm sure he'll rack up a few more this weekend.
On defense are Clevan Thomas who is an interception machine and Ken Fontenette, who is a tackling machine. Also, his last name always makes me think that it's the word for the soft spot on a baby's head. I need help, seriously.
Last week in Cleveland, the Power should have won. The refs even did everything they could to give us the game, and we still frittered it away. It was pretty sad. That kind of play will not stack up against the Sabercats, however, I really think that it's more because the Power have already packed it in for the season. The record they've had the last two seasons would demoralize anyone, and these guys are only human. I just hope that they can pull it together one more time for the paying home crowd - especially since the game will be nationally televised.
Elsewhere in the League
If nothing else, this weekend will be one last chance to see the Power play at home for the season and -- win or lose -- Sabercats games are fun. Defying all logic, we've always matched up very well against them, despite them being way out of our league. The games are generally close, and we've been capable of winning against them.
So, we should just sit back, relax, and watch some football. It's going to be a short and sweet post, but that's because everything's been said before. Next week, we'll have a better idea of the playoffs and we can get back to it.
The Sabercats are led by one Russ Michna, known primarily as being the long-time QB of the Chicago Rush and looking just like Keller's brother. I'm still not sure why Chicago decided to part ways with him, but their loss has been San Jose's gain. Once they kicked Aaron Garcia all the way back to Florida, Michna turned their offense around. He's accurate and mobile, with the experience that makes him hard to rattle.
Our offense really hasn't been the same since Jason Willis left, and unfortunately, his return is going to be on the wrong side of the line. He already has 31 TDs with the Cats, and I'm sure he'll rack up a few more this weekend.
On defense are Clevan Thomas who is an interception machine and Ken Fontenette, who is a tackling machine. Also, his last name always makes me think that it's the word for the soft spot on a baby's head. I need help, seriously.
Last week in Cleveland, the Power should have won. The refs even did everything they could to give us the game, and we still frittered it away. It was pretty sad. That kind of play will not stack up against the Sabercats, however, I really think that it's more because the Power have already packed it in for the season. The record they've had the last two seasons would demoralize anyone, and these guys are only human. I just hope that they can pull it together one more time for the paying home crowd - especially since the game will be nationally televised.
Elsewhere in the League
- Utah has nothing left except to play spoiler. Philly clinches the number one seed in our conference with a win (and a Shock win) this weekend.
- Iowa is just about out of this if they lose, and the Preds have buffer space. Given that they have more to play for, the Barnstormers might pull this off - but my money's on the Preds
- Spokane travels to Jacksonville this week and it could go either way
- Cleveland's out if they lose this week, and I'm fairly sure that the Rush can accomplish that objective.
- Tampa pretty much just needs to beat the Talons to get a postseason spot, and they've historically been pretty good when their back is against the wall.
- Finally, there's NOLA at AZ....which is a freebie for the Ratts.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Voodoo at Power preview
Another tough loss last week. The Power kept it competitive, but at some point they need to start winning games, even if other teams losing keep us in the playoff hunt. There are three teams that need to finish with a worse record than the Power, and they had a chance to beat each of them, one right after the other. So far, that didn't work against the Preds -who were the most important of the three - but we still have NOLA and the Gladiators to go.
This week is the New Orleans Voodoo, a team that the Power successfully beat in their house and is also a team that hasn't won on the road so far this season. Granted, the Power doesn't have a great record at home, but it's a winnable game.
The big problem Saturday night is going to be Captain Morgan himself.
Donovan Morgan is a force of nature on offense. When he's on his game, no one else on the team seems that scary - and given that this game is just as important to the Voodoo as it is to the Power, expect him to be on his game.
The question mark for both teams is quarterback. The Power continue their random roll call for QB every week - it looks like Sheffield will be under center this week, but that's never a sure thing. He might have "family issues" again at the last minute, Austin might be really on it in practice, or Coach Sting might just feel like throwing Cassidy in again. We don't know. On the Voodoo side of things, Kurt Rocco is their starter. He let the team to a strong showing last year, but he's been struggling this season. After a pretty bad showing last week, Chris Dixon might be in. I'd rather that - replacement QBs on the road are generally less dangerous than a troubled starting QB.
Wrapping up the season:
Down the stretch here, the Power is 2 games back from the Preds, and some wins need to stack up. The Preds will face Sharks, Rattlers, 'Stormers, Gladiators and Voodoo. Sharks are a rival, so it's tough to call. Ratts will be a loss. Iowa, Cleveland and NOLA should all be wins, but they'll probably drop one of them. So, optimistically, the Preds will go 2-3 in their last five. Optimistically.
What does that mean for the Power? Nothing good. That would mean that the Power needs to win out. Our final opponents are Voodoo, Gladiators, 'Cats, Storm and Shock. Voodoo and Gladiators are the best bets. Cats are a strong maybe, Storm's unlikely and the Shock ain't happening. Best - absolute best - case, the power goes 4-1, though I'd expecct 2-3, and that won't be enough.
I don't want to be a Debbie Downer about the situation, but that's really what it comes down to - and it's not taking into consideration the Voodoo and Gladiators going on a tear...I mean, the Preds could just as easily fall apart. I'm not putting money on either. The simple fact is, the Power probably won't make the playoffs, but still have a chance of ending the year with a better record than last year.
Baby steps.
Elsewhere in the League
This week is the New Orleans Voodoo, a team that the Power successfully beat in their house and is also a team that hasn't won on the road so far this season. Granted, the Power doesn't have a great record at home, but it's a winnable game.
The big problem Saturday night is going to be Captain Morgan himself.
 |
| I can't count the number of times that's been the case |
The question mark for both teams is quarterback. The Power continue their random roll call for QB every week - it looks like Sheffield will be under center this week, but that's never a sure thing. He might have "family issues" again at the last minute, Austin might be really on it in practice, or Coach Sting might just feel like throwing Cassidy in again. We don't know. On the Voodoo side of things, Kurt Rocco is their starter. He let the team to a strong showing last year, but he's been struggling this season. After a pretty bad showing last week, Chris Dixon might be in. I'd rather that - replacement QBs on the road are generally less dangerous than a troubled starting QB.
Wrapping up the season:
Down the stretch here, the Power is 2 games back from the Preds, and some wins need to stack up. The Preds will face Sharks, Rattlers, 'Stormers, Gladiators and Voodoo. Sharks are a rival, so it's tough to call. Ratts will be a loss. Iowa, Cleveland and NOLA should all be wins, but they'll probably drop one of them. So, optimistically, the Preds will go 2-3 in their last five. Optimistically.
What does that mean for the Power? Nothing good. That would mean that the Power needs to win out. Our final opponents are Voodoo, Gladiators, 'Cats, Storm and Shock. Voodoo and Gladiators are the best bets. Cats are a strong maybe, Storm's unlikely and the Shock ain't happening. Best - absolute best - case, the power goes 4-1, though I'd expecct 2-3, and that won't be enough.
I don't want to be a Debbie Downer about the situation, but that's really what it comes down to - and it's not taking into consideration the Voodoo and Gladiators going on a tear...I mean, the Preds could just as easily fall apart. I'm not putting money on either. The simple fact is, the Power probably won't make the playoffs, but still have a chance of ending the year with a better record than last year.
Baby steps.
Elsewhere in the League
- Orlando at Jacksonville - as I said above, it's a rivalry game and it was a three-point game last time they met up. I need to think positive and say that the Sharks will pull it off again.
- Philly at Cleveland - Philly's better on the road, and Cleveland's not good.
- Another division match-up, and it's between the Talons and Barnstormers. The Barnstormers took the Talons at home last time, and they should be able to do it on their home turf as well.
- As far as I'm concerned, the GotW is once again featuring the Cats, even if it's not the TV game. Last time the Cats and Blaze met up, San Jose won by a point. Utah needs this win hard, but I'm still betting the Cats win the rematch.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Heading to the Jungle - Predators rematch
Okay, yeah...we lost last week. Badly. Definitively. A division loss, no less. But, strangely, it's not that important in the grand scheme of things. We're playing for the 4th spot in the conference. We're not going to get the division, so Philly getting farther out in front isn't going to make them win it any more than they already are. The teams we have to be concerned with are Cleveland, New Orleans and Orlando - which makes this week's game somehow more important than our division game last week.
Right now, the series is tied between these two teams. The Power swept them last season, but lost hard both in their first season and earlier this year. The acquisition of Aaron Garcia was key in starting to turn Orlando around - but they're still down at the bottom of the pack with us. Regardless, he's one of the best in the game, and the Power will be playing on his field.
His prime receiver is T.T. Toliver, but it's really a triple threat of Toliver, Prechae Rodriguez, and Jason Geathers, accounting for almost 50 TDs on the year between them. Last time the two teams met up, the majority of the damage (yards-wise) was Toliver, and that's pretty standard fare for him. Rodriguez put up 3 touchdowns, and Geathers generally just made plays when needed. Marlon Moye-Moore is also a concern in the running game (but not nearly as much as "Boss" Ross last week. Ugh.)
As with most weeks, turnovers were an issue last time the Preds/Power met up, and there is no reason to think that it won't happen again. Dominic Jones is Orlando's player on defense and special teams, but that's not really important - our turnover issue is more of a failing on offense than it is a success for the opponent's defense.
It's an important game in Florida and all-but-a-must-win for the Power. Tune in Saturday to see how it plays out.
Elsewhere in the League
Right now, the series is tied between these two teams. The Power swept them last season, but lost hard both in their first season and earlier this year. The acquisition of Aaron Garcia was key in starting to turn Orlando around - but they're still down at the bottom of the pack with us. Regardless, he's one of the best in the game, and the Power will be playing on his field.
His prime receiver is T.T. Toliver, but it's really a triple threat of Toliver, Prechae Rodriguez, and Jason Geathers, accounting for almost 50 TDs on the year between them. Last time the two teams met up, the majority of the damage (yards-wise) was Toliver, and that's pretty standard fare for him. Rodriguez put up 3 touchdowns, and Geathers generally just made plays when needed. Marlon Moye-Moore is also a concern in the running game (but not nearly as much as "Boss" Ross last week. Ugh.)
As with most weeks, turnovers were an issue last time the Preds/Power met up, and there is no reason to think that it won't happen again. Dominic Jones is Orlando's player on defense and special teams, but that's not really important - our turnover issue is more of a failing on offense than it is a success for the opponent's defense.
It's an important game in Florida and all-but-a-must-win for the Power. Tune in Saturday to see how it plays out.
Elsewhere in the League
- Utah came up big last week against Jacksonville in the Battle of Replacement QBs. The decision to start Jason Boltus instead of Tommy Grady turned out to be the right one. The question is, will it be the right call again this week in a big division match-up against the Shock?
- The two big things to consider in Saturday's match between the Soul and the Barnstormers are Iowa's defense and the Soul's habit of choking at home. I think that those two things might spell a win for Iowa.
- With Bernard Morris on IR and newly acquired Kyle Rowley taking snaps, the Sharks have been on a two-game skid, but they're still at the top of their division. With a game against Cleveland this weekend, they should return to their winning ways and help us out.
- Chicago and Tampa Bay are tied in the standings, and both coming off losses. Tampa is still the better team, but the Rush needs the win to stay on top of their division.
- Likewise, the Talons need a win to catch up to the Rush. New Orleans actually got win number three last week, so I for one, will be rooting for the Talons this week.
- Every now and again, the CBS game of the week gets it right: The game between Arizona and San Jose should be the best game this week. Normally, in a game as unpredictable as this, I'd take the home team...but I've also been predicting a Rattlers fall for weeks now. So I just don't know. Watch the game, it'll be fun.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Soul/Power Round Two
I'm strangely optimistic about this game. Philly hasn't won a division game yet, we've beaten them, they've made some consistent mistakes, and we looked good last week.
First off, even though the Power lost in San Jose last week, it kind of felt like a win. Cassidy took the snaps and looked confident the whole game. In fact, in the last minute of the game, it was tied up. Everything after that was a matter of risk/reward that didn't fall our way. San Jose is one of the toughest teams in the league, and the Power hung in against them and played a good, clean game.
Philly, on the other hand, very nearly lost to New Orleans at home last week. It was a sloppy, sloppy game where they never held a lead until almost the end. Also, they continued messing up in a critical area they've repeated week after week: Blowing it in the fourth with stupid mistakes. When the Power was out there, they were in the driver's seat until Dirty Dan threw a pick right at the end. When the Rattlers were out there, they were looking good until Dirty Dan tried to throw it away between the wall and the iron...and had the ricochet picked. This past week with NOLA, they actually had to burn their last time out or they would have lost by one point because the clock ran out!
I know, a Power fan ragging on a team for 4th quarter meltdowns is a bit hypocritical. However, when the Power melts down in the fourth, it's generally because they gave up in the third. Philly, on the other hand, lets sub-par teams hold in way longer than they should and/or make one truly stupid mistake late in the game that turns things around.
So we've got it made in the shade, right?
Well, no. The first catch is that Philly tends to do these things to themselves at home, not on the road. Secondly, they have a very solid team on paper - one that is pretty similar to the Arena Bowl team from last year.
As usual, Tiger Jones is going to be the aerial threat that we need to watch out for. The most annoying part is, every time he scores, he'll do an obnoxious dance (that tends to be fun to watch...) Also, we have to accept the fact that Derrick "the Boss" Ross is going to set an AFL record this week. It's going to happen. He's 7 yards shy of the all-time rushing record, and he can get that on one carry. Philly is just about the only team in the league that actually plays a running game, and they play it a lot. (Side note: The record Ross is going to beat took Bo Kelly 12 years to set - and Ross has been in the league for three. So, he's going to push it out of reach by the time he's done playing.)
One last player to note for this week is Ryan McDaniel. In many ways, he reminds me of an evil Gary Butler. He's Philly's big time hot-head. He's been playing great on offense, but at the same time, he's drawn some big-time penalties because of his short fuse. Here's where the Bully can come in - if Butler and McDaniel clash enough, they might get each other ejected, and that could be exactly what we need. Regardless, getting him to lose his cool could be that 4th quarter screw-up for this week.
Elsewhere in the League
First off, even though the Power lost in San Jose last week, it kind of felt like a win. Cassidy took the snaps and looked confident the whole game. In fact, in the last minute of the game, it was tied up. Everything after that was a matter of risk/reward that didn't fall our way. San Jose is one of the toughest teams in the league, and the Power hung in against them and played a good, clean game.
Philly, on the other hand, very nearly lost to New Orleans at home last week. It was a sloppy, sloppy game where they never held a lead until almost the end. Also, they continued messing up in a critical area they've repeated week after week: Blowing it in the fourth with stupid mistakes. When the Power was out there, they were in the driver's seat until Dirty Dan threw a pick right at the end. When the Rattlers were out there, they were looking good until Dirty Dan tried to throw it away between the wall and the iron...and had the ricochet picked. This past week with NOLA, they actually had to burn their last time out or they would have lost by one point because the clock ran out!
I know, a Power fan ragging on a team for 4th quarter meltdowns is a bit hypocritical. However, when the Power melts down in the fourth, it's generally because they gave up in the third. Philly, on the other hand, lets sub-par teams hold in way longer than they should and/or make one truly stupid mistake late in the game that turns things around.
So we've got it made in the shade, right?
Well, no. The first catch is that Philly tends to do these things to themselves at home, not on the road. Secondly, they have a very solid team on paper - one that is pretty similar to the Arena Bowl team from last year.
As usual, Tiger Jones is going to be the aerial threat that we need to watch out for. The most annoying part is, every time he scores, he'll do an obnoxious dance (that tends to be fun to watch...) Also, we have to accept the fact that Derrick "the Boss" Ross is going to set an AFL record this week. It's going to happen. He's 7 yards shy of the all-time rushing record, and he can get that on one carry. Philly is just about the only team in the league that actually plays a running game, and they play it a lot. (Side note: The record Ross is going to beat took Bo Kelly 12 years to set - and Ross has been in the league for three. So, he's going to push it out of reach by the time he's done playing.)
One last player to note for this week is Ryan McDaniel. In many ways, he reminds me of an evil Gary Butler. He's Philly's big time hot-head. He's been playing great on offense, but at the same time, he's drawn some big-time penalties because of his short fuse. Here's where the Bully can come in - if Butler and McDaniel clash enough, they might get each other ejected, and that could be exactly what we need. Regardless, getting him to lose his cool could be that 4th quarter screw-up for this week.
Elsewhere in the League
- First up is Cleveland at Orlando. Really, this game can't work out badly for us - merely "good" and "better." Obviously, we want Cleveland to lose, on principle and because they're in our division. But, if they happen to win, Orlando losing is good as well. Even if we lose, whichever of those teams win can only tie our record, and we have more division wins than Cleveland. Right now, 4th place in the conference is a playoff spot, and we're still on pace for that.
- I don't have nearly as much to say about Tampa Bay at NOLA. They're gonna beat the Voodoo, and that's good for us - the Voodoo is the other team we need to stay at a worse record than us to get into the playoffs.
- Likewise, San Jose shouldn't have much trouble against the Barnstormers.
- The match-up between Spokane and Arizona is being touted as a preview of the division championship. It might be - regardless, it's going to be a great match-up. I'm not going to feel comfortable until the Ratts lose again. I mean, they can beat the Shock, but they've won 8 in a row and are still due for a stumble.
- The main thing San Antonio's meeting with the Chicago Rush has going for it is that it's a division match. They're pretty evenly matched, and I'm going to give a slight edge to the Talons.
- I'm still baffled that Utah has had such a crappy season. I honestly haven't watched enough of their games to really get a feel for why, but the fact is, things haven't gone their way. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is in it to win it.
Friday, June 07, 2013
Power at Sabercats preview
Three things are true about last week: We got our asses kicked, the Sabercats got their asses kicked, and both other teams in our division lost. So, we're all starting from a blank slate this week.
That being said, the Sabercats are going to crush the Power on Saturday. They're just too solid of a team to begin with, and they've gotten stronger in the second half of the season with the addition of Russ Michna at quarterback. As mentioned in past posts, the Cats had trouble with veteran QB Aaron Garcia, but when they swapped him out for Michna, everything gelled.
We will also get to see former Power receiver Jason "Watchu Talkin' Bout" Willis in action again...which isn't so hot in this situation. He primarily headed out to San Jose to follow Garcia, but seems to like it out there. The short version is - he's a scary, scary individual and their current top scorer.
What concerns me is their defense, which is second in the league. Last week, the Power hung in there the first half and kept it respectable, if not hopeful. The announcers - who were super, pro-Jacksonville - spent the first half lamenting how lack-luster the Sharks were playing. The second half was a different story. The trademark Power Critical Turnover happened, and the wheels fell off. That one magic turnover that causes more to follow until the team is just trying to get the game over with.
Against a normal team, this is bad. Against a team that plays as dirty as the Sabercats, this could, and would, be disastrous.
Elsewhere in the League
That being said, the Sabercats are going to crush the Power on Saturday. They're just too solid of a team to begin with, and they've gotten stronger in the second half of the season with the addition of Russ Michna at quarterback. As mentioned in past posts, the Cats had trouble with veteran QB Aaron Garcia, but when they swapped him out for Michna, everything gelled.
We will also get to see former Power receiver Jason "Watchu Talkin' Bout" Willis in action again...which isn't so hot in this situation. He primarily headed out to San Jose to follow Garcia, but seems to like it out there. The short version is - he's a scary, scary individual and their current top scorer.
What concerns me is their defense, which is second in the league. Last week, the Power hung in there the first half and kept it respectable, if not hopeful. The announcers - who were super, pro-Jacksonville - spent the first half lamenting how lack-luster the Sharks were playing. The second half was a different story. The trademark Power Critical Turnover happened, and the wheels fell off. That one magic turnover that causes more to follow until the team is just trying to get the game over with.
Against a normal team, this is bad. Against a team that plays as dirty as the Sabercats, this could, and would, be disastrous.
Elsewhere in the League
- First up is Iowa at Cleveland. Both teams are at the bottom of their divisions and on a three-game slide, badly in need of a win. Iowa is the slightly better bet here.
- NOLA at Soul. Philly can take the Voodoo without much difficulty, but I'm hoping for an upset!
- The Blaze continues to struggle and I think that the Rush, who continue to heat up, have a good shot at beating them
- Arizona travels to Texas to play the Talons this weekend. As powerful as the Ratts continue to be with only one loss on the season, I can't help but think that a stumble is coming at some point.
- Spokane and Jacksonville are too evenly matched to call. Both whooped the crap out of their opponents last week (Sabercats and Power, respectively) and have tied records. When in doubt, take the home team, which in this case is Spokane.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Pens vs. Bruins Preview
I've said all along that the Pens would have underachieved had they not won the East. Coming into the playoffs, I had a really good handle on how they matched up against other teams in the Eastern conference, but really no idea how they matched up against anyone in the West, given the fact that the shortened season eliminated inter-conference play. The only thing I knew for sure was this: Whoever the Pens had to face in the Eastern portion of the bracket, the odds and matchups were in their favor to win the series.
I believed that against the Islanders and the Senators and I believe it in the Eastern Conference Final against the Boston Bruins.
Like most of the teams in this side of the bracket, the Pens finished the season with a winning record against the Bruins, going 3-0-0 and winning three one goal games. Now, the fact that all three games were close means that they were anyone's games. But, you can't discount the fact that the Pens also won all three close games, because this figures to be a tight series.
Neither team has a huge name at goal tender, but Tuukku Rask is certainly more well-regarded and has more raw talent than Tomas Vokoun. Then again, Marc-Andre Fleury has more renown and athletic ability than Vokoun and look where the two netminders stand at this point. Fleury is officially Vokoun's backup and will only come in if the Bruins chase Vokoun or if it looks like the series is on the brink and Vokoun has lost his edge (like what happened against the Islanders and would've happened against the Flyers last year, had the Pens possessed two viable options at goal tender). And, realistically, I don't think that Vokoun is going to get rattled enough that he loses the starting job.
He's not as flashy or exciting as Fleury, but he's extremely consistent. The Pens don't need a guy with a high ceiling as long as he also has a high floor. The Flower has has a high ceiling, but he also has a pretty low floor. If the Pens can get competent, consistent goal tending, then they'll be able to score enough goals and protect their goal tender with their skilled defensemen enough that they don't need a guy like Jonathan Quick (who is amazing, BTW, and you should totally watch the Hawks-Kings series).
Vokoun has earned at least one mulligan. You can't fault him for the double overtime loss against Ottawa and that's been his only loss since he came in. He's been making the easy saves, making the vast majority of the tough saves, and hasn't let in any headscratchers. If he can keep that up, I think that's more than sufficient from here on out.
Now, that's not to say I'm in love with the guy, but we're going to have to face facts here. Regardless of who the Pens have in at goal the rest of the way, the other team is going to have the advantage at goal tender. That's more praise for Quick, Rask, and Corey Crawford than it is a knock on Vokoun or Flower. Thing is, I think the Pens can get past any goal tender if they get enough chances. I think they can wear anyone down -- they sure dismantled a fantastic goalie like Craig Anderson in pretty short order -- and I think they have the talent and tenacity on offense to chase anyone out of the net. I know that's a bold statement, but that's how much confidence I have in this offense.
Boston has an edge between the pipes and the Pens have an edge on offense, but I don't think it's a huge edge. The Bruins can get hot and score goals in bunches. They have four solid lines -- their fourth line in particular has been on fire since the playoffs started -- and their top line is the second best in hockey (after Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis). Their second and third lines don't match up as well against the Pens as their first and fourth -- especially if Jussi, Kennedy, Morrow, and Cooke continue to play about as well as they have -- but Boston has a ton of depth and can get on you in a hurry; just ask Toronto.
The difference in this series, for me, is defense and special teams.
Zdeno Chara can handle anyone and getting Dennis Seidenberg back is a big deal for the Bruins, but other than those two guys, they have a bunch of warm bodies and rookie overachievers (this is assuming Andrew Ference doesn't see any significant time until Game 3 or 4). Chara and Seidenberg will either wear down or not be on the ice and guys like Torey Krug, Dougie Hamilton, and Pittsburgh's own Matt Bartkowski will come down to earth. The defensemen for Boston have played well in the first two rounds, especially considering the injuries they've had to contend with. But, if you took the best guys from Toronto and New York and made four lines out of them, you still wouldn't have four lines as good as what the Pens have been rolling with since the trade deadline. The Bruins defensemen just haven't had to match up against this level of talent thus far in the playoffs and they're going to come back down to earth (hard) once they have to.
On the other hand, the Pens are now rolling with their full complement of defensemen and they have guys that can skate and score (Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Simon Despres), an enforcer with some scoring upside in Doug Murray, and a couple guys who can do a little bit of everything in Brooks Orpik and Mark Eaton. And, they're deep, so I feel comfortable with Engelland or Niskanen -- or any of the combinations they've played during the course of the playoffs, because all these guys have seen time -- in the event that anyone goes down. They have a ton of options and can play a bunch of different ways, even switching combinations and styles when they do line changes. That flexibility -- which they're only just starting to take advantage of, since there were so many injuries throughout the course of the season -- makes this a very balanced and capable defense.
On special teams, Boston can't give the Pens more than three chances a game if they want to win this series. The power play for the Penguins is just too potent and, regardless of how good your penalty kill is, it's extremely difficult to shut them out on any given night. Since goals will probably be flowing pretty freely, you don't want to give the Pens a stick to hit you with. The biggest stick they have is that power play, particularly since James Neal appears to have found his scoring stroke back. With Letang running point and Neal and Iginla sniping away from either side, then you add in Kunitz and/or Crosby and Malkin... that's just a deadly PP unit right there. When you add in the fact that the Penguins are also very good at drawing penalties -- note that I didn't say diving, because they've really gotten away from that -- and it's a lethal combination. You pretty much have to pick your poison. It'll be interesting to see what strategy Boston goes with: Whether they'll let the Pens skate free and trust Rask to make a bunch of killer saves or if they'll clutch, hold, and slash in the hopes that the officials won't call anything this deep in the playoffs, dealing with the daunting task of killing a bunch of penalties if that strategy backfires.
In case I haven't made this abundantly clear, the Bruins are a great team. The Pittsburgh Penguins are just better and they have a number of key advantages over Boston. I think the Pens are feeling it now and they're incredibly focused on the prize. When you take the talent that they have and add in determination, focus, and desperation, that's a dangerous team right there. I think that it's possible that the Blackhawks could beat them in a seven game series at this point, but I don't see anyone else with the horses and the intangibles to match up.
If Boston can get all four of their lines rolling, if their young defensemen continue to play at the high level they've been playing, and if Rask only has one game where he gets overpowered and overwhelmed and if the Bruins can stay out of the penalty box, they can win this series.
But... that's a whole lot of "ifs" and too many for my blood.
Prediction:
Pens in 6
I believed that against the Islanders and the Senators and I believe it in the Eastern Conference Final against the Boston Bruins.
Like most of the teams in this side of the bracket, the Pens finished the season with a winning record against the Bruins, going 3-0-0 and winning three one goal games. Now, the fact that all three games were close means that they were anyone's games. But, you can't discount the fact that the Pens also won all three close games, because this figures to be a tight series.
Neither team has a huge name at goal tender, but Tuukku Rask is certainly more well-regarded and has more raw talent than Tomas Vokoun. Then again, Marc-Andre Fleury has more renown and athletic ability than Vokoun and look where the two netminders stand at this point. Fleury is officially Vokoun's backup and will only come in if the Bruins chase Vokoun or if it looks like the series is on the brink and Vokoun has lost his edge (like what happened against the Islanders and would've happened against the Flyers last year, had the Pens possessed two viable options at goal tender). And, realistically, I don't think that Vokoun is going to get rattled enough that he loses the starting job.
He's not as flashy or exciting as Fleury, but he's extremely consistent. The Pens don't need a guy with a high ceiling as long as he also has a high floor. The Flower has has a high ceiling, but he also has a pretty low floor. If the Pens can get competent, consistent goal tending, then they'll be able to score enough goals and protect their goal tender with their skilled defensemen enough that they don't need a guy like Jonathan Quick (who is amazing, BTW, and you should totally watch the Hawks-Kings series).
Vokoun has earned at least one mulligan. You can't fault him for the double overtime loss against Ottawa and that's been his only loss since he came in. He's been making the easy saves, making the vast majority of the tough saves, and hasn't let in any headscratchers. If he can keep that up, I think that's more than sufficient from here on out.
Now, that's not to say I'm in love with the guy, but we're going to have to face facts here. Regardless of who the Pens have in at goal the rest of the way, the other team is going to have the advantage at goal tender. That's more praise for Quick, Rask, and Corey Crawford than it is a knock on Vokoun or Flower. Thing is, I think the Pens can get past any goal tender if they get enough chances. I think they can wear anyone down -- they sure dismantled a fantastic goalie like Craig Anderson in pretty short order -- and I think they have the talent and tenacity on offense to chase anyone out of the net. I know that's a bold statement, but that's how much confidence I have in this offense.
Boston has an edge between the pipes and the Pens have an edge on offense, but I don't think it's a huge edge. The Bruins can get hot and score goals in bunches. They have four solid lines -- their fourth line in particular has been on fire since the playoffs started -- and their top line is the second best in hockey (after Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis). Their second and third lines don't match up as well against the Pens as their first and fourth -- especially if Jussi, Kennedy, Morrow, and Cooke continue to play about as well as they have -- but Boston has a ton of depth and can get on you in a hurry; just ask Toronto.
The difference in this series, for me, is defense and special teams.
Zdeno Chara can handle anyone and getting Dennis Seidenberg back is a big deal for the Bruins, but other than those two guys, they have a bunch of warm bodies and rookie overachievers (this is assuming Andrew Ference doesn't see any significant time until Game 3 or 4). Chara and Seidenberg will either wear down or not be on the ice and guys like Torey Krug, Dougie Hamilton, and Pittsburgh's own Matt Bartkowski will come down to earth. The defensemen for Boston have played well in the first two rounds, especially considering the injuries they've had to contend with. But, if you took the best guys from Toronto and New York and made four lines out of them, you still wouldn't have four lines as good as what the Pens have been rolling with since the trade deadline. The Bruins defensemen just haven't had to match up against this level of talent thus far in the playoffs and they're going to come back down to earth (hard) once they have to.
On the other hand, the Pens are now rolling with their full complement of defensemen and they have guys that can skate and score (Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Simon Despres), an enforcer with some scoring upside in Doug Murray, and a couple guys who can do a little bit of everything in Brooks Orpik and Mark Eaton. And, they're deep, so I feel comfortable with Engelland or Niskanen -- or any of the combinations they've played during the course of the playoffs, because all these guys have seen time -- in the event that anyone goes down. They have a ton of options and can play a bunch of different ways, even switching combinations and styles when they do line changes. That flexibility -- which they're only just starting to take advantage of, since there were so many injuries throughout the course of the season -- makes this a very balanced and capable defense.
On special teams, Boston can't give the Pens more than three chances a game if they want to win this series. The power play for the Penguins is just too potent and, regardless of how good your penalty kill is, it's extremely difficult to shut them out on any given night. Since goals will probably be flowing pretty freely, you don't want to give the Pens a stick to hit you with. The biggest stick they have is that power play, particularly since James Neal appears to have found his scoring stroke back. With Letang running point and Neal and Iginla sniping away from either side, then you add in Kunitz and/or Crosby and Malkin... that's just a deadly PP unit right there. When you add in the fact that the Penguins are also very good at drawing penalties -- note that I didn't say diving, because they've really gotten away from that -- and it's a lethal combination. You pretty much have to pick your poison. It'll be interesting to see what strategy Boston goes with: Whether they'll let the Pens skate free and trust Rask to make a bunch of killer saves or if they'll clutch, hold, and slash in the hopes that the officials won't call anything this deep in the playoffs, dealing with the daunting task of killing a bunch of penalties if that strategy backfires.
In case I haven't made this abundantly clear, the Bruins are a great team. The Pittsburgh Penguins are just better and they have a number of key advantages over Boston. I think the Pens are feeling it now and they're incredibly focused on the prize. When you take the talent that they have and add in determination, focus, and desperation, that's a dangerous team right there. I think that it's possible that the Blackhawks could beat them in a seven game series at this point, but I don't see anyone else with the horses and the intangibles to match up.
If Boston can get all four of their lines rolling, if their young defensemen continue to play at the high level they've been playing, and if Rask only has one game where he gets overpowered and overwhelmed and if the Bruins can stay out of the penalty box, they can win this series.
But... that's a whole lot of "ifs" and too many for my blood.
Prediction:
Pens in 6
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Power @ Sharks Preview
Well...here we go again. We're into the back half of the season and that means we get to start playing good teams again. This week, we get a rematch against the Sharks, and this time, we're in their house. I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand, the Sharks are still the dangerous team we faced in week #2...but on the other hand, the Power's gotten a taste of them and tends to be slightly better on the road. Out of the last four games, the Sharks have had three losses and a win against the Preds...by three points That's not a stunning record, so we might have a chance.
Our win last week against the Gladiators was just what the doctor ordered, but we can't make it more than it was. Cleveland is a lousy, lousy team. However, that game was a blast to watch, and there was actual life in Consol for the first time in more than a year. Plus, it was a division win - so I think that, more important than the victory itself, it was a confidence builder.
So, what are we looking at this week? Well, it's a road game, as mentioned earlier, which is good and bad, given the Power's history. The more important part of the team's history is the fact that we've never beaten the Sharks, and we've never ended a game within 20 points of them...and that's something the team CANNOT think about.
The biggest thing that that worked against the Power in the most recent match-up was Jacksonville's defense. They had six sacks and three picks, and that will kill you every time. Normal suspects - Swiss cheese line and a rattled QB. Sheffield is still throwing picks, but he seems to be settling into his role. Also, the line is giving him more time to think. That keeps up, we're in a better place.
Other than that, it's business as usual. There's nothing I can say this time that I didn't say last time we played them specifically, or most weeks in general.
A few notes: last week, Chris LeFlore returned a huge kickoff for a TD that helped earn him Week 10 AFL MVP. Obviously, he's getting more comfortable in his role. Also, Twitter holds rumblings that Oderick Turner has returned, strengthening the receiver position. (I didn't see Graves playing last week, so Turner might be filling Graves' shoes.)
It's a road game, but it will air at 7 on ThisTV, this Saturday, June 1st.
Elsewhere in the League
Our win last week against the Gladiators was just what the doctor ordered, but we can't make it more than it was. Cleveland is a lousy, lousy team. However, that game was a blast to watch, and there was actual life in Consol for the first time in more than a year. Plus, it was a division win - so I think that, more important than the victory itself, it was a confidence builder.
So, what are we looking at this week? Well, it's a road game, as mentioned earlier, which is good and bad, given the Power's history. The more important part of the team's history is the fact that we've never beaten the Sharks, and we've never ended a game within 20 points of them...and that's something the team CANNOT think about.
The biggest thing that that worked against the Power in the most recent match-up was Jacksonville's defense. They had six sacks and three picks, and that will kill you every time. Normal suspects - Swiss cheese line and a rattled QB. Sheffield is still throwing picks, but he seems to be settling into his role. Also, the line is giving him more time to think. That keeps up, we're in a better place.
Other than that, it's business as usual. There's nothing I can say this time that I didn't say last time we played them specifically, or most weeks in general.
A few notes: last week, Chris LeFlore returned a huge kickoff for a TD that helped earn him Week 10 AFL MVP. Obviously, he's getting more comfortable in his role. Also, Twitter holds rumblings that Oderick Turner has returned, strengthening the receiver position. (I didn't see Graves playing last week, so Turner might be filling Graves' shoes.)
It's a road game, but it will air at 7 on ThisTV, this Saturday, June 1st.
Elsewhere in the League
- I am just giddy this week. Three games are airing in Pittsburgh, and Philly shifted their kickoff, so I get to watch football from 4 until after midnight. First up is Philly hosting Arizona. The Ratts have lost one game this season thus far, so I'm really hoping they'll do the Power a solid and take the Soul down.
- The Rush maintains their slim grip on the lead in their division as they travel to Florida to play the Preds. My money is on the Rush.
- Statistically, the Gladiators are slightly better than the Voodoo. But, the Voodoo is at home in the Graveyard and has lost 8 in a row...dare we hope for a double smack-down on our division rivals this week?
- Tampa travels to Iowa with hopes of getting back to their winning ways...and Iowa really needs a win as well to keep up with the Joneses in their division. Too close to call.
- Speaking of the Joneses in that division, San Antonio plays host to the Utah Blaze at 8:30 Monday, and the Talons are sporting their fourth QB of the year - former Power thrower, Xavier Lee. You never seem to see much of him at any one point or position. He's a utility player who does a bit of everything, but QB is what he seems to really want to do. I've always liked him, but I'm not sure he has what it'll take to beat Tommy Grady.
- Finally, the prime time game of the week is the Saberkitties and the Spokane Shock. It's a division grudge match between two teams that are virtually tied and both riding a winning streak. The Cats tend to win high-pressure games, but the Shock doesn't just lie down. I'm just glad we all have the chance to watch this one.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Cleveland Gladiators at Pittsburgh Power Preview
Finally, in week ten of the season, we have a division rivalry game at home. As some of you may remember, the last time we were scheduled to play the Gladiators, they were so intimidated that they didn't take the field, making them the only AFL team in history to forfeit a game. (That's the way I choose to remember it, rather than think about the vast amounts of strike BS that plagued the league last year.)
As we all know, the Power is having a rough go of it this season, but frankly, so is Cleveland. We both stand at 2-6, so this is a pretty important game. We've both beaten Philly so far, so - believe it or not - we both still have the right to dream of taking the division. Sure, any one of us would exit the playoffs early, but who cares - making it to the post season is all that really matters.
The Power got their collective asses handed to them again at home last week (one of the head office guys commented to me afterwards that, since I was in Philly, I'm one of the lucky few to actually see our boys win this year) and that's sad. Thing is, there was a lot of good in the game - it's just that turnovers killed us.
Right from the word go, our defense was all over Tampa's QB. They weren't able to close the deal often (only one recorded sack on the game) but they were back there in his space a lot. Conversely, our O line was actually looking half-way decent. They certainly were giving Sheffield time to think, or at least to scramble, which is something that's been lacking up until now.
Sheffield himself was looking promising during his first home start. He has the range, he has accuracy, he seems good natured when coaches correct him on field and he can move (35 yards on the night.) The problem was INTs. The best that I can figure is that he has tunnel vision. Nearly every pick was seemingly a perfect throw to a defensive player who was wide open. I think what's happening is that he's so focused on his receiver that he just plain doesn't see anyone else on the field. This is not good, and it's something that I sure hope he can shake.
Cleveland is, again, not the strongest team in the league, but they're not a pushover. Brian Zbydniewski completes about 50% of his passes (most while the other team is spell-checking his name) and averages only about 1 pick a game. Also, he is mobile enough that he has 6 rushing TDs on the year. This is concerning only because McPhearson was able to put up some serious yardage on us last week, and the defense wasn't able to do much about it.
While the Gladiators lost some key players in the off season - most notably Robert Redd - they kept Dominick Goodman. He, Johnathan Lewis and Thyron Lewis are going to be the main threats that we have to contain this week. They make up the bulk of Cleveland's yards and scores and will likely be the main targets.
Cleveland has a bad habit of giving up a lot of yards on penalties, just like we do. I know I say it a lot, but we need to capitalize on those tendencies and play the cleaner game. Our officiating crew at home royally sucks, but if the Power can manage not to piss them off and let Cleveland rack up the penalty yards, it could make or break the night.
We haven't seen a home win since April 14, 2012 for crying out loud. This is a streak that HAS to end.
Elsewhere in the League
As we all know, the Power is having a rough go of it this season, but frankly, so is Cleveland. We both stand at 2-6, so this is a pretty important game. We've both beaten Philly so far, so - believe it or not - we both still have the right to dream of taking the division. Sure, any one of us would exit the playoffs early, but who cares - making it to the post season is all that really matters.
The Power got their collective asses handed to them again at home last week (one of the head office guys commented to me afterwards that, since I was in Philly, I'm one of the lucky few to actually see our boys win this year) and that's sad. Thing is, there was a lot of good in the game - it's just that turnovers killed us.
Right from the word go, our defense was all over Tampa's QB. They weren't able to close the deal often (only one recorded sack on the game) but they were back there in his space a lot. Conversely, our O line was actually looking half-way decent. They certainly were giving Sheffield time to think, or at least to scramble, which is something that's been lacking up until now.
Sheffield himself was looking promising during his first home start. He has the range, he has accuracy, he seems good natured when coaches correct him on field and he can move (35 yards on the night.) The problem was INTs. The best that I can figure is that he has tunnel vision. Nearly every pick was seemingly a perfect throw to a defensive player who was wide open. I think what's happening is that he's so focused on his receiver that he just plain doesn't see anyone else on the field. This is not good, and it's something that I sure hope he can shake.
Cleveland is, again, not the strongest team in the league, but they're not a pushover. Brian Zbydniewski completes about 50% of his passes (most while the other team is spell-checking his name) and averages only about 1 pick a game. Also, he is mobile enough that he has 6 rushing TDs on the year. This is concerning only because McPhearson was able to put up some serious yardage on us last week, and the defense wasn't able to do much about it.
While the Gladiators lost some key players in the off season - most notably Robert Redd - they kept Dominick Goodman. He, Johnathan Lewis and Thyron Lewis are going to be the main threats that we have to contain this week. They make up the bulk of Cleveland's yards and scores and will likely be the main targets.
Cleveland has a bad habit of giving up a lot of yards on penalties, just like we do. I know I say it a lot, but we need to capitalize on those tendencies and play the cleaner game. Our officiating crew at home royally sucks, but if the Power can manage not to piss them off and let Cleveland rack up the penalty yards, it could make or break the night.
We haven't seen a home win since April 14, 2012 for crying out loud. This is a streak that HAS to end.
Elsewhere in the League
- At some point while I wasn't paying attention, the Talons managed to get to the top of their division, and the Shock started getting back on track. This game might actually be worth watching
- Jacksonville at Orlando. The Preds stumbled last week against Philly, but in general, Garcia is trying to turn them around. Things went completely pear-shaped for the Sharks last week (both on and off the field) and they got beat hard to continue their slide. They need a big win this week, and facing their former star QB in the interstate War on I-4 matchup might just be the tonic they need. I'll take the Sharks in this one.
- Football is never an if A>B and B>C then A>C equation. Just because we beat Philly and Tampa Bay beat us doesn't mean that Tampa is going to beat Philly....but I still think Tampa can beat Philly. They're playing at a higher level and have all the right ingredients Philly just seems to be a bit lost this season and haven't quite gelled.
- Iowa is not a bad team. They're not a great team, but they're not horrible. Arizona, on the other hand, is 8-1 and destined to go to the Arena Bowl again. The only way Iowa wins this one is if the Ratts overlook them or play easy this week...neither of which is something the team is known for.
- Utah at San Jose....oh dear. Where do I start? On one hand, it's a division match, Utah continues to be kinda crap and San Jose's winning streak is running the same as Utah's total wins - 4. On the other hand, the Cats are showing their true colors as that team I love to hate when, after beating the Sharks handily, still felt the need to start some shit with the dance team for interfering with the game. The end result - several arrests, a senior-citizen coach hospitalized and an appearance on Fark.com. What does this mean for the game? Probably very little, but I still hate the Sabercats because they're a bunch of douchebags...but I love watching them play.
- Finally, Chicago needs every win they can while they stay neck and neck with San Antonio in their division, and a cream puff team like the Voodoo is probably the best thing to happen.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Tampa Bay Storm at Power Preview
Better late than never, right? Almost forgot to write something this week.
The Power return home this week after an exciting win in Philly. Much like the one in NOLA, a road win is great and all, but the average fan probably doesn't even know it happened - and that's sad. I had a great time out there again this year, and everything that was true last year remains so this year: Crab fries are awesome, cheesesteaks are tasty, beer is everywhere, Philly fans are still frickin terrible and the Soulmates Dance Team is still ridiculously hot.
Last week, things were changed up around the team, and it showed. Steven Sheffield was obviously uncomfortable at QB, but after 3 seasons, we're kind of used to the quarterback shuffle. At least this one got to get his sea legs while on the road and away from that one jackass in my section who spends every game looking miserable and periodically yelling, "Go home <insert name of QB>!"
During the last home game, Superman Berry took a vicious hit that left my wife concerned for his well-being. Well, he didn't show up in the game in Philly and is listed as injured again this week, so I'm guessing the hit was as painful as it looked. Chris "Gingabread" LeFlore is covering returns for him, and Berry's offensive slot is being filled by committee. Shamar Graves has been an increased presence on the field the last few weeks and leads the team in "Not needing a nickname" yards. (Seriously - dude's name is 'Graves,' and that's awesome.) He plays ironman like Berry, and seems to be everywhere on the field. Even when he doesn't snag picks that it looks like he should have, he at least breaks up plays.
Also appearing on offense is newcomer James Robinson. He was injured in the pre-season, so we hadn't gotten to see him on the field yet this year, and the man knows how to make an entrance. In his debut, he put up 4 touchdowns for the Power, so it'd be great if that's going to be the norm. Likewise, Joystick continues to be a force on the field this season with good numbers of his own.
Defense was able to keep the pressure on Dirty Dan, and was even able to get that last-minute, over-the-wall pick that they needed to save the game. The new kicker had a pretty rough game, and I really hope that improves before kickoff tomorrow night.
Yes, this "preview" sounds a hell of a lot like a "review" so far, but that's by design. The lineup should look very much this same this week, and we can probably expect the same things on our side of the ball. Kicking is concerning, returns leave a bit to be desired, the QB is not comfortable yet and the offensive line still sucks. If the positions that can improve do so (basically, everything but the O line), then things are going to look more hopeful for us.
Unfortunately, Tampa Bay is - as usual - a good team this year.
There are certain things that I learn to expect when I watch other teams around the league. I love watching Rattlers games, because the local TV station streams the live games online with the same feed as TV (announcers and all.) Voodoo and Sabercats games usually have the scores up on screen. And, Tampa Bay has their radio feed piped in for audio. I love these guys. They're that rare combination of good sports coverage and an obvious love for this sport, not just sports in general. I'm always entertained by them, and look forward to watching Tampa games because of them.
Except for the week before they play the Power.
The Sabercats were trouncing the Storm pretty good last week, and it got hopeless pretty fast. Later in the game, Jack and Darek started looking ahead to this week and for the second year in a row, they said something to the effect of, "Well, at least we're playing Pittsburgh next week..." I mean, really guys - just because it's fundamentally true, could you maybe throw us a bone next year and pretend like you're a little concerned? Thanks. Long time listener, first time complainer.
But, as I was saying, the Cats were putting a hurting on them and beat them pretty hard. As such, I expect them to come in here tomorrow night and bring some anger. They're still in the running for their division, and they're looking for every win they can get. Historically, we've matched pretty well against them, the games have been high-scoring and close...we just haven't beaten them.
This year, they're lead by QB Andrian McPherson. Last week - this early in the season - he locked up the AFL record for rushing touchdowns by a QB in a season, and he's thrown for 34 as well. So, needless to say, containing him is going to be job #1 for the Power defense. If Alvin Ray Jackson or Sergio Gilliam want to pick a few in the process, I won't be complaining - however, McPherson doesn't throw many of those. Only three this year, and two of them were during last week's disaster.
However, the Storm is currently third in the league for picks themselves, and that's worrying. I can sugar coat things as much as you want, but I can't change the fact that picks are now and always have been the Power Achilles heel. When a team comes in that is good at them - like the Storm in general and DB Chris Smith in specific - we're often boned. I hope that Sheffield doesn't get rattled by the lack of protection and throw too early as so many of our new QBs do, and actually avoids that trap.
So, the short version is that we need to keep doing what we did last week in Philly, and play the Storm like we have in the past....just more so. A win is not out of the question this week, but they're not going to hand it to us like they did the Sabercats.
A Word on Tebow
Ah, Tebow. He is the Paris Hilton of football. Someone decided at some point that he should be famous, and we all just went right along with it. When he didn't live up to the hype, he started getting passed around and mocked. Now, he has been cut by yet another team (and, really, when the Jets cut you, how can you hold your head up?) and we're still talking about him.
This week, water cooler sports talk briefly acknowledged that the Arena League existed when Ron Jaworski, Soul owner and Philly legend, offered Tebow a contract as a backup to Dirty Dan Raudabaugh. Now, the Soul isn't the first team to express interest - back in March, the Predators considered it - and certainly isn't the first team to make an NFL player an offer. Chad OchoJohnson and T.O. have both been offered jobs in the indoor game in the past. What makes Jaws' offer different than the others is that he's mostly serious and people have had constructive arguments as to why it could work.
Most of the time, these offers go out with absolutely no expectations outside of a little free publicity. Jaws is an anomaly by being a respected voice in the NFL and being a very hands-on owner in the AFL (I love Swanny to death, but I never see him in the front row screaming at refs like I did Jaws last weekend.) He's not saying that he'll move heaven and earth for Tebow and let him start next week - he's saying he'll pay him league wage and let him come in for special plays not covered by the guy currently getting the job done. All of this lends an air of plausibility to the equation.
I had a conversation the other day where people pointed out that Tebow was never given the time to develop in the NFL because of his hype. That he's not very accurate and doesn't process well under pressure. These are things that the AFL could either cure him of, or destroy him with (QBs trained for the NFL don't often play well in this league.) I mean, hey, it worked out for another Christian QB who couldn't quite hack it in the NFL...
However, it's not going to happen, at least not in the current climate - but maybe it should. In the NHL and MLB, the farm system is well utilized to develop players for the pros when they need a little extra polish. How often do we hear about a winger "called up" or "sent down" as needed, or a pitching prospect that is going to break out any day now as soon as he gets his act together? Right now, the NFL will pull players from the AFL for camp that look promising, and nearly always cut them before the season starts - and that's it.
They know these guys are pinning everything on the hope of the NFL, and they'll jump ship in a heartbeat if they get and offer...and their teams accept this. The fact that NFL camp happens during the late AFL season is just bad luck. Last year, Tiger Jones - one of Philly's absolute best players - got called up by the Eagles right before the playoffs. They tied him up in camp just long enough that the Soul didn't have him during the playoffs, and then they cut him. Think about that: A receiver the NFL felt might be good enough to go to the big show, and they took him away from a team right before the playoffs. Think that had any unfortunate side effects? (Okay, bad example: Soul went to the Arena Bowl because of their insane depth on that roster. They melted down in the Arena Bowl, but that was more Raudabaugh than lack of Jones...but you see my point.)
And this isn't an isolated incident. Every year, several teams lose good players right when they need them most to the NFL when they know damn well they aren't going to stay there. Why not work together? Tebow is hardly an anomaly. Every year, there are draft picks that don't pan out for any number of specific reasons, but a common general one is that they're just not quite ready for the NFL yet. Why not "send them down" for a season or two in the Arena League? It'd be a win for everyone. Let the NFL subsidize the AFL a bit so they could offer better salaries, their players get some work in key areas, the AFL gets more talent which means more viewers, which means more money, which means more salaries... There are holes, but overall, this could improve both leagues and get us closer to the ideal of quality football year-round.
My name is Weidman, and I approve this message.
Elsewhere in the League
The Power return home this week after an exciting win in Philly. Much like the one in NOLA, a road win is great and all, but the average fan probably doesn't even know it happened - and that's sad. I had a great time out there again this year, and everything that was true last year remains so this year: Crab fries are awesome, cheesesteaks are tasty, beer is everywhere, Philly fans are still frickin terrible and the Soulmates Dance Team is still ridiculously hot.
Last week, things were changed up around the team, and it showed. Steven Sheffield was obviously uncomfortable at QB, but after 3 seasons, we're kind of used to the quarterback shuffle. At least this one got to get his sea legs while on the road and away from that one jackass in my section who spends every game looking miserable and periodically yelling, "Go home <insert name of QB>!"
During the last home game, Superman Berry took a vicious hit that left my wife concerned for his well-being. Well, he didn't show up in the game in Philly and is listed as injured again this week, so I'm guessing the hit was as painful as it looked. Chris "Gingabread" LeFlore is covering returns for him, and Berry's offensive slot is being filled by committee. Shamar Graves has been an increased presence on the field the last few weeks and leads the team in "Not needing a nickname" yards. (Seriously - dude's name is 'Graves,' and that's awesome.) He plays ironman like Berry, and seems to be everywhere on the field. Even when he doesn't snag picks that it looks like he should have, he at least breaks up plays.
Also appearing on offense is newcomer James Robinson. He was injured in the pre-season, so we hadn't gotten to see him on the field yet this year, and the man knows how to make an entrance. In his debut, he put up 4 touchdowns for the Power, so it'd be great if that's going to be the norm. Likewise, Joystick continues to be a force on the field this season with good numbers of his own.
Defense was able to keep the pressure on Dirty Dan, and was even able to get that last-minute, over-the-wall pick that they needed to save the game. The new kicker had a pretty rough game, and I really hope that improves before kickoff tomorrow night.
Yes, this "preview" sounds a hell of a lot like a "review" so far, but that's by design. The lineup should look very much this same this week, and we can probably expect the same things on our side of the ball. Kicking is concerning, returns leave a bit to be desired, the QB is not comfortable yet and the offensive line still sucks. If the positions that can improve do so (basically, everything but the O line), then things are going to look more hopeful for us.
Unfortunately, Tampa Bay is - as usual - a good team this year.
There are certain things that I learn to expect when I watch other teams around the league. I love watching Rattlers games, because the local TV station streams the live games online with the same feed as TV (announcers and all.) Voodoo and Sabercats games usually have the scores up on screen. And, Tampa Bay has their radio feed piped in for audio. I love these guys. They're that rare combination of good sports coverage and an obvious love for this sport, not just sports in general. I'm always entertained by them, and look forward to watching Tampa games because of them.
Except for the week before they play the Power.
The Sabercats were trouncing the Storm pretty good last week, and it got hopeless pretty fast. Later in the game, Jack and Darek started looking ahead to this week and for the second year in a row, they said something to the effect of, "Well, at least we're playing Pittsburgh next week..." I mean, really guys - just because it's fundamentally true, could you maybe throw us a bone next year and pretend like you're a little concerned? Thanks. Long time listener, first time complainer.
But, as I was saying, the Cats were putting a hurting on them and beat them pretty hard. As such, I expect them to come in here tomorrow night and bring some anger. They're still in the running for their division, and they're looking for every win they can get. Historically, we've matched pretty well against them, the games have been high-scoring and close...we just haven't beaten them.
This year, they're lead by QB Andrian McPherson. Last week - this early in the season - he locked up the AFL record for rushing touchdowns by a QB in a season, and he's thrown for 34 as well. So, needless to say, containing him is going to be job #1 for the Power defense. If Alvin Ray Jackson or Sergio Gilliam want to pick a few in the process, I won't be complaining - however, McPherson doesn't throw many of those. Only three this year, and two of them were during last week's disaster.
However, the Storm is currently third in the league for picks themselves, and that's worrying. I can sugar coat things as much as you want, but I can't change the fact that picks are now and always have been the Power Achilles heel. When a team comes in that is good at them - like the Storm in general and DB Chris Smith in specific - we're often boned. I hope that Sheffield doesn't get rattled by the lack of protection and throw too early as so many of our new QBs do, and actually avoids that trap.
So, the short version is that we need to keep doing what we did last week in Philly, and play the Storm like we have in the past....just more so. A win is not out of the question this week, but they're not going to hand it to us like they did the Sabercats.
A Word on Tebow
Ah, Tebow. He is the Paris Hilton of football. Someone decided at some point that he should be famous, and we all just went right along with it. When he didn't live up to the hype, he started getting passed around and mocked. Now, he has been cut by yet another team (and, really, when the Jets cut you, how can you hold your head up?) and we're still talking about him.
This week, water cooler sports talk briefly acknowledged that the Arena League existed when Ron Jaworski, Soul owner and Philly legend, offered Tebow a contract as a backup to Dirty Dan Raudabaugh. Now, the Soul isn't the first team to express interest - back in March, the Predators considered it - and certainly isn't the first team to make an NFL player an offer. Chad OchoJohnson and T.O. have both been offered jobs in the indoor game in the past. What makes Jaws' offer different than the others is that he's mostly serious and people have had constructive arguments as to why it could work.
Most of the time, these offers go out with absolutely no expectations outside of a little free publicity. Jaws is an anomaly by being a respected voice in the NFL and being a very hands-on owner in the AFL (I love Swanny to death, but I never see him in the front row screaming at refs like I did Jaws last weekend.) He's not saying that he'll move heaven and earth for Tebow and let him start next week - he's saying he'll pay him league wage and let him come in for special plays not covered by the guy currently getting the job done. All of this lends an air of plausibility to the equation.
I had a conversation the other day where people pointed out that Tebow was never given the time to develop in the NFL because of his hype. That he's not very accurate and doesn't process well under pressure. These are things that the AFL could either cure him of, or destroy him with (QBs trained for the NFL don't often play well in this league.) I mean, hey, it worked out for another Christian QB who couldn't quite hack it in the NFL...
However, it's not going to happen, at least not in the current climate - but maybe it should. In the NHL and MLB, the farm system is well utilized to develop players for the pros when they need a little extra polish. How often do we hear about a winger "called up" or "sent down" as needed, or a pitching prospect that is going to break out any day now as soon as he gets his act together? Right now, the NFL will pull players from the AFL for camp that look promising, and nearly always cut them before the season starts - and that's it.
They know these guys are pinning everything on the hope of the NFL, and they'll jump ship in a heartbeat if they get and offer...and their teams accept this. The fact that NFL camp happens during the late AFL season is just bad luck. Last year, Tiger Jones - one of Philly's absolute best players - got called up by the Eagles right before the playoffs. They tied him up in camp just long enough that the Soul didn't have him during the playoffs, and then they cut him. Think about that: A receiver the NFL felt might be good enough to go to the big show, and they took him away from a team right before the playoffs. Think that had any unfortunate side effects? (Okay, bad example: Soul went to the Arena Bowl because of their insane depth on that roster. They melted down in the Arena Bowl, but that was more Raudabaugh than lack of Jones...but you see my point.)
And this isn't an isolated incident. Every year, several teams lose good players right when they need them most to the NFL when they know damn well they aren't going to stay there. Why not work together? Tebow is hardly an anomaly. Every year, there are draft picks that don't pan out for any number of specific reasons, but a common general one is that they're just not quite ready for the NFL yet. Why not "send them down" for a season or two in the Arena League? It'd be a win for everyone. Let the NFL subsidize the AFL a bit so they could offer better salaries, their players get some work in key areas, the AFL gets more talent which means more viewers, which means more money, which means more salaries... There are holes, but overall, this could improve both leagues and get us closer to the ideal of quality football year-round.
My name is Weidman, and I approve this message.
Elsewhere in the League
- The Spokane Shock still need every easy win they can get given their tough division, and hosting NOLA looks to be just what the doctor ordered.
- San Antonio at Cleveland is going to be a matchup of two teams that are just struggling. Both teams are coming off of a win, and it'd just be nice if the Talons can make up for beating us by beating our division rival.
- San Jose at Jacksonville is looking like the game to watch this week (which you won't, because you'll be watching the Power, right?) Both teams are powerhouses right now, and this game will show who the real deal is. The Sabercats have been on the warpath since they picked up Michna, winning their last three. The Sharks slipped and lost their first two games of the season in their last two starts. Hosting the Cats, they'll be looking to get back to their winning ways. The Sharks can win this, and probably should, but matching Michna and Morris, I'm going to have to take Michna.
- Every year, there's a good example of divisional strength, and this game is it. At 3-4, the Utah Blaze is sitting in last place in their division. At 4-4, the Barnstormers are tied for first in theirs. The Blaze has just not been living up to expectations, but I think they can take the 'Stormers.
- GotW is Preds at Soul. Just like the Cats are proving that they're totally doing great with Michna in their life, Garcia has been showing them that he's totally over them and happy with his new squeeze, the Orlando Predators. Winning two in a row, they're trying to make a comeback, and Philly would be another great feather in their cap. They way they're playing and the way Philly has looked, they might just do it, too.
- Sunday, Arizona travels to Chicago to close out the weekend. I expect them to TCB and bring home a W.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Penguins-Senators Preview
Here's the thing about this series (and the next series, if the Pens win this series): It's going to take a big time effort from the Senators for them to win. Or, the Pens are going to need to implode as badly as they imploded against the Islanders for 2.5 games, but for the entire series.
Honestly, that's not saying that Ottawa (or Boston or the Rangers) are any better or worse than the Islanders. It's saying that the three possible remaining opponents for the Pens don't scare me. The Islanders scared me to a degree in that they were young and unpredictable. They have a bunch of great skaters and very skilled players. They're just rough around the edges, couldn't quite grasp the moment, and weren't as deep as the Penguins.
And, really, when you stack everything up, the Pens played a solid series. They had a +8 goal differential, went 7 for 21 on the power play, killed 18 out of 20 penalties, and have three of the top five scorers in the playoffs.
Yes, I know they went to overtime twice, but they won both of those games. Yes, I know Fleury looked lost and helpless for a long stretch there, but they put in Vokoun and he won his two starts. I know they were outshot and outhustled for about half of the series, but they still scored eight more goals than their opponents and they still recorded two shutouts.
They didn't win with authority. They should've crushed and swept the 8 seed and asked who was the next to be slaughtered. But... they still won and they still won pretty convincingly.
I also know that the Senators smoked the Canadiens in five games, winning two of those games by a convincing 6-1 margin. The thing you have to keep in mind there is that Montreal kinda sucks. They limped into the series, were playing their worst hockey at the end of the season, weren't getting much in the way of defense or goaltending, and couldn't muster enough offense to offset that. If Montreal made it past Ottawa, they weren't making it past their next opponent.
Ottawa's strengths lined up perfectly against Montreal's weaknesses. The same could be said about the Islanders strengths and the Pens weaknesses. The difference is that the Pens found a way to win -- and fairly convincingly -- and Canadiens got destroyed.
The Senators aren't particularly flashy or skilled or fast or deep. They're not dangerous. They're not young. They're not exciting. They're a methodical, disciplined team that converted every mistake Montreal made and took advantage of every opportunity Montreal afforded them.
When the Pens are playing their preferred brand of hockey, they don't make many mistakes and they don't afford their opponents many opportunities. They prefer to line up their best guys against your best guys and force you to beat them. Since they're so skilled and so deep, they usually come out on top. They were skilled enough and deep enough and had enough mental fortitude to beat the Islanders in six, even when they weren't playing their preferred brand of hockey.
I think they can beat Ottawa even if they don't play their preferred brand of hockey. I think they can also beat the Rangers or Bruins. (I don't think they would be able to beat any of the four teams left in the West, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves).
Just for the Ottawa series, I think they keep things tight, keep things boring, and should be able to win if they don't completely implode. The Senators just aren't explosive enough to make the Pens pay consistently enough for it to matter.
I think the Pens can gut out another ugly series and move on. If they actually start to put everything together in this series and play close to perfect, then it'll be over in five.
Prediction: Pens in Six.
Honestly, that's not saying that Ottawa (or Boston or the Rangers) are any better or worse than the Islanders. It's saying that the three possible remaining opponents for the Pens don't scare me. The Islanders scared me to a degree in that they were young and unpredictable. They have a bunch of great skaters and very skilled players. They're just rough around the edges, couldn't quite grasp the moment, and weren't as deep as the Penguins.
And, really, when you stack everything up, the Pens played a solid series. They had a +8 goal differential, went 7 for 21 on the power play, killed 18 out of 20 penalties, and have three of the top five scorers in the playoffs.
Yes, I know they went to overtime twice, but they won both of those games. Yes, I know Fleury looked lost and helpless for a long stretch there, but they put in Vokoun and he won his two starts. I know they were outshot and outhustled for about half of the series, but they still scored eight more goals than their opponents and they still recorded two shutouts.
They didn't win with authority. They should've crushed and swept the 8 seed and asked who was the next to be slaughtered. But... they still won and they still won pretty convincingly.
I also know that the Senators smoked the Canadiens in five games, winning two of those games by a convincing 6-1 margin. The thing you have to keep in mind there is that Montreal kinda sucks. They limped into the series, were playing their worst hockey at the end of the season, weren't getting much in the way of defense or goaltending, and couldn't muster enough offense to offset that. If Montreal made it past Ottawa, they weren't making it past their next opponent.
Ottawa's strengths lined up perfectly against Montreal's weaknesses. The same could be said about the Islanders strengths and the Pens weaknesses. The difference is that the Pens found a way to win -- and fairly convincingly -- and Canadiens got destroyed.
The Senators aren't particularly flashy or skilled or fast or deep. They're not dangerous. They're not young. They're not exciting. They're a methodical, disciplined team that converted every mistake Montreal made and took advantage of every opportunity Montreal afforded them.
When the Pens are playing their preferred brand of hockey, they don't make many mistakes and they don't afford their opponents many opportunities. They prefer to line up their best guys against your best guys and force you to beat them. Since they're so skilled and so deep, they usually come out on top. They were skilled enough and deep enough and had enough mental fortitude to beat the Islanders in six, even when they weren't playing their preferred brand of hockey.
I think they can beat Ottawa even if they don't play their preferred brand of hockey. I think they can also beat the Rangers or Bruins. (I don't think they would be able to beat any of the four teams left in the West, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves).
Just for the Ottawa series, I think they keep things tight, keep things boring, and should be able to win if they don't completely implode. The Senators just aren't explosive enough to make the Pens pay consistently enough for it to matter.
I think the Pens can gut out another ugly series and move on. If they actually start to put everything together in this series and play close to perfect, then it'll be over in five.
Prediction: Pens in Six.
Thursday, May 09, 2013
Hit the Road, Jack
This week, the Power head back out on the road, Keller and I follow them again, and several players get the boot. It's action-packed, and I haven't even gotten to the part where I talk about Chickie's and Pete's Crabfries.
Let's start with what we will be facing when we meet up with the Soul for the first time this season. At 3-3, they're not quite the powerhouse they were last season...but that doesn't mean they're not decisively at the top of our division. Part of their slide this year is due to the loss of Tiger Jones, Captain Morgan, and few others. However, they've kept stars like Dirty Dan Raudabaugh, Derrick Ross and LaRico Stevenson (seriously, I miss that guy.)
Dirty Dan continues to be the red-headed menace that he's always been. This season, he's on the right side of a 32/6 touchdown vs interception ratio. He has good protection, thinks well on his feet, and is mobile. He is the prime threat, and there's no two ways about it.
On the receiving side, Larry Brackins - stud of the last Arena Bowl -is still around and doing his thing, but definitely in more of a supporting role. The heavy lifting is being done by Anthony Jones, and that dude is a monster, with 775 yards and 14 TDs in just six games this season.
While he's the threat in the air, Derrick Ross is most assuredly a threat on the ground in a league that doesn't use infantry very often. His 14 TDs on the ground is a pretty good stat for a fullback for a season. In just a third of a season, it's phenomenal.
On the other side of the ball, LaRico Stevenson and Joe Goosby are twin terrors, putting up respectable numbers in sacks, turnovers, and tackles. Given the continuing situation with our offensive line, these are the two that scare me the most. Add to that the fact that Stevenson can return...
In typical Power fashion, it's time to replace some QBs and swap out kickers. Czajkowski who, while formidable in Words With Friends, has been struggling. He was let go, while Baker and Wolford have been placed on IR. This makes room for a new kicker, a new receiver, and QB Steven Sheffield. If that name sounds familiar, it's because we had originally signed him to a 3-year contract in November. That's good. It means he was someone the Power thought was worth locking in. He was Garcia's backup, after all. On the other hand, he didn't play for us because he didn't show up. That's bad. But it was for family reasons. That's...none of our business, really.
I'm just not super stoked about the situation. Quarterback drama has become our bread and butter. Last week, we brought back Derrick Cassidy - architect of the killer comeback against the Preds last year - to fill in while Shane Austin is out with an injury. However, not only did they only use him for one or two plays, but Jefferson kept running back on the field like he was going to play whether coach liked it or not. I have no frickin' clue what the situation really was, but best case it's that everyone was confused and worst case, it was that Coach Sting has no control over Jefferson. Neither is good.
So, what's going to happen is, the Power, Keller, and myself are going to drive to Philly, the Power are going to figure some stuff out while we drink some beers, and then I'm gonna eat a cheesesteak and some crabfries while I enjoy some football and Soulmate cheerleaders.
Elsewhere in the League
 |
| I mean, just look at them. LOOK AT THEM! |
Dirty Dan continues to be the red-headed menace that he's always been. This season, he's on the right side of a 32/6 touchdown vs interception ratio. He has good protection, thinks well on his feet, and is mobile. He is the prime threat, and there's no two ways about it.
On the receiving side, Larry Brackins - stud of the last Arena Bowl -is still around and doing his thing, but definitely in more of a supporting role. The heavy lifting is being done by Anthony Jones, and that dude is a monster, with 775 yards and 14 TDs in just six games this season.
While he's the threat in the air, Derrick Ross is most assuredly a threat on the ground in a league that doesn't use infantry very often. His 14 TDs on the ground is a pretty good stat for a fullback for a season. In just a third of a season, it's phenomenal.
On the other side of the ball, LaRico Stevenson and Joe Goosby are twin terrors, putting up respectable numbers in sacks, turnovers, and tackles. Given the continuing situation with our offensive line, these are the two that scare me the most. Add to that the fact that Stevenson can return...
In typical Power fashion, it's time to replace some QBs and swap out kickers. Czajkowski who, while formidable in Words With Friends, has been struggling. He was let go, while Baker and Wolford have been placed on IR. This makes room for a new kicker, a new receiver, and QB Steven Sheffield. If that name sounds familiar, it's because we had originally signed him to a 3-year contract in November. That's good. It means he was someone the Power thought was worth locking in. He was Garcia's backup, after all. On the other hand, he didn't play for us because he didn't show up. That's bad. But it was for family reasons. That's...none of our business, really.
I'm just not super stoked about the situation. Quarterback drama has become our bread and butter. Last week, we brought back Derrick Cassidy - architect of the killer comeback against the Preds last year - to fill in while Shane Austin is out with an injury. However, not only did they only use him for one or two plays, but Jefferson kept running back on the field like he was going to play whether coach liked it or not. I have no frickin' clue what the situation really was, but best case it's that everyone was confused and worst case, it was that Coach Sting has no control over Jefferson. Neither is good.
So, what's going to happen is, the Power, Keller, and myself are going to drive to Philly, the Power are going to figure some stuff out while we drink some beers, and then I'm gonna eat a cheesesteak and some crabfries while I enjoy some football and Soulmate cheerleaders.
 |
| LOOK AT THEM! |
- Tampa at San Jose is mainly interesting to me because we're playing Tampa next week. Both teams are looking strong right now, but being in different divisions, there's not a lot riding on this one.
- Chicago at Cleveland. You know what? This game is pretty important. (Just bear with me for a second on this one.) Playoff spots go to division leaders, then the next two best records. Right now, Philly and Jacksonville are leading their respective divisions. Tampa Bay is coming up on the Sharks hard. That leaves a spot open. NOLA, Cleveland, Orlando and Pittsburgh are all tied at 1-5. If we can't get the wins honestly, I'll take our rivals losing. So....Go Rush.
- NOLA at Iowa. See above. Go 'Stormers
- Utah at Arizona: The Blaze is still at the bottom of a strong division and need every win. I really don't know how to call this game. Blaze is better than their record and the Ratts need to lose occasionally. But I don't think they will this week.
- Sharks are on the road in San Antonio, and they will most likely rack up another win.
- Orlando at Spokane. This will show whether or not the Preds beating us was a fluke or if Garcia is going to make them the real deal.
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