Yep. This game scares the shit out of me.
On the one hand, the defense is probably going to be pissed off and mad at the world, we're playing at home, and the Jags will be without man-mountain Marcus Stroud to plug the middle.
On the other hand, Jacksonville's been on a roll, teams that the Patriots have beaten have not fared well the next week, the Jaguars are shockingly similar to us from a personnel and game plan standpoint, we'll be without Aaron Smith, and Marcus Stroud wasn't playing that well this season anyhow.
Can we win? Sure. I also said that we could beat the Patriots and look how that worked out.
So, if we win, here's how it happens.
We get up on the Jags early. This is a team that wants to run their game plan, they're not built to come from behind, and they get very uncomfortable when they're required to throw the ball. Plus which, home crowd, last game at Heinz Field in the regular season, if we get an early lead, it's going to get awfully loud and uncomfortable for Jacksonville.
We need to pressure David Garrard. If he can sit back in the pocket, go through his progressions, and wait for someone to come free, someone's gonna come free. The Jacksonville receivers aren't all that spectacular, but they're a lot like the Steelers receivers. Give 'em time and they'll get open against anyone. It's also a comfort issue. The more you pressure Garrard, the less comfortable he feels. He won't make a ton of mistakes if you take him out of his comfort zone like Derek Anderson or Carson Palmer, but he'll definitely start hearing footsteps if you hit him a few times. Throws will start sailing on him, he'll start skipping the ball to his receivers, may even fumble. What we need to do is get him focused on what might go wrong, not what could go right.
I'm actually not real worried about Maurice Jones-Drew. He's been up and down all season and mostly down the last few games. Plus which, he's a little dude with little feet. If it starts raining or snowing, he'll look like a drunk girl in high heels trying to run. Fred Taylor is the man who worries me. He's been on a roll, he's been able to stay healthy (actually, he's been really damn healthy for about three years now, but no one in Fantasy Football or regular football seems to notice), and he's starting to break big plays. Without Smith to seal off one side of the field, our linebackers are vulnerable. Not sure if Nick Eason or some other jack-ass is going to replace him on Sunday, but there's really no way to replace him. If the Steelers let him walk in the offseason, they had better damn well move to the 4-3, because they don't have anyone that's even close to him on the roster.
But, even though the running backs scare me, Taylor in particular, the big thing that scares me is the passing game. Jacksonville's receivers average 7', 280 pounds, or something crazy like that. They're all huge and no one in our secondary can match them man-for-man. If there are any jump balls, we're screwed.
And, while we're talking about the secondary, they need to listen to this, because they didn't frickin' listen to me last week with the play action passes and look what happened. If Reggie Williams or Matt Jones comes in the game and the Jaguars are outside the 10 yard line, they're running a slant. Be ready for it. Williams comes in and Jacksonville is at their 30? Slant to Williams? Jones comes in and they're at midfield? Slant to Jones. It's simple, but no one in the NFL seems to have caught onto this yet. If they're inside our 10 yard line and Jones or Williams comes in, it's a fade route. If they're both in the game, slant to Williams, fade to Jones. Who Garrard throws to all depends on whether or not we cover Williams.
Even though Jacksonville is going to be preoccupied with trying to stop Fast Willie, I really think we can run on these guys. Tennessee did. Indy did (twice). If you're committed to it and you stay the hell away from the two inside guys (400 pound tackle Grady Jackson is going to be in for Stroud), you can run on this team. And, since they're kinda slow on the edges and their defensive ends suck balls, Fast Willie should be able to run outside the tackles and get a bunch of yardage. Kinda like he did against the Patriots, but hopefully with better overall results for the team.
Where the Jaguars scare me is when we try to throw the ball. They have the guys in the back seven to cover whoever we throw out there. They're good enough at creating pressure with their defensive line that they don't have to blitz. So, that means a long game of Ben dropping back and trying to squeeze the ball into tight spaces against a very quick and athletic Jacksonville defense. That's been how they've handled him ever since blitzing him didn't work so well in 2004. And it has worked. Rashean Mathis pretty well owns Hines Ward. Brian Williams could possibly get torched by Santonio Holmes, but he didn't exactly look like he was 100%.
If we come out with the same, tired game plan we've had the past few weeks where everyone goes deep except Heath and Willie, we're fucked. That's all there is to it. If we come out and run some underneath stuff, some slants, some screens (what the hell happened to the screens? why did we stop calling them when Willie and Najeh Davenport run them so well?), and get those guys to start creeping up. As soon as they start creeping up... BAM! throw the ball deep. Maybe even use some play action in the first and second quarter to take advantage of the fact that Jacksonville has an absurdly aggressive defense. Don't think that's going to work? That's exactly what the Patriots did to us and what the Colts always do to the Jaguars. And it has worked.
But, the biggest thing that scares me about this game is that I don't see it being close. One of the reasons I don't see a close game is because EVERYONE thinks this is going to be a close game. We know each other pretty well, we're very similar teams with similar talent on both sides of the ball. I think it's going to come down to who wants it more in the early going. I really believe that, if we come out and run all over them and hit a few big plays in the passing game, they'll start to fall apart. We'll start to fall apart if they do that to us.
Both teams are 9-4 and have something to play for, but I keep getting the feeling like both teams are also really tired and want to get past this game (and the next two) and get to the playoffs already. They're not looking past each other, they're looking past everybody they have to play before January.
So, I really think that the team that comes out focused and attacking will win the game, probably by a large margin. Personal loyalties aside, I really think that team is going to be the Steelers. I just don't see them taking a giant shit in their pants two straight weeks, especially since the game's at home (we're 7-0 at home and have only won division games on the road... that's weird).
Prediction: Steelers 30, Jaguars 13
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