Steelers vs. Browns Review

Wow. See, I had this weird feeling that the Browns were actually going to show up yesterday. Guess I was wrong on that, which is fine.

I'm actually surprised that they fired GM Phil Savage before the game yesterday, but waited until today to fire Crennel. I mean, everyone knew he was gone, but I figured the Browns will pull a Mike-Tice-Don't-Even-Wait-Until-He-Gets-Back-to-His-Office-Directly-After-the-Game kind of firing. I seriously thought that Randy Learner was going to come down to the field in the fourth quarter, stay close to Crennel, and grab him and fire him before Crennel had a chance to shake Tomlin's hand.

A few thoughts on the game:

1. The Browns had 26 yards passing yesterday. On 18 attempts. That's 1.44 yards per pass attempt. They don't even have a word for how bad that is. But, I'm thinking that, if the Oxford English Dictionary sanctions one, it will involve several profanities tied together, followed by the sound of a cat being kicked across the room. I have a feeling that it will be some time before the word actually appears in the dictionary, though, since their staff will need to agree on how to spell the sound a cat makes when you kick it across the room.
2. If you take net yards, that's 1.11 yards per attempt. Also recall that Josh Cribbs had eight yards passing on two attempts. So their kick returner and fourth string receiver actually helped their yards per attempt.
3. Everyone is up in arms about the fact that Roethlisberger was still in the game at the end of the first half and he shouldn't have been because it was a meaningless game and what the hell was Tomlin thinking and... what if he got hurt on the third play of the game? Or the second series? Tomlin was trying to send a message to his players that their effort in the Titans game was unacceptable and that every game matters. He needed to keep starters in until they proved they were putting forth maximum effort and they sure weren't at the time Ben got hurt. They had only scored seven points on offense and were shut out in the first quarter. If they wanted to rest -- Ben in particular -- they should have played better. If they jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, Leftwich would've come in, the reserve offensive linemen would've come in, Gary Russell would have come in... but, the offense decided to suck. Ben's as much to blame as Tomlin for the injury.
4. I think he plays in the playoff game, but I'm concerned about how "with it" he'll be at that point. The injury reminded me a lot of the injury that Tommy Maddox had in 2002. Remember when he came back too early from that injury? Lemme refresh you. Maddox had three turnovers that directly lead to 21 points for the Texans. They had 47 total yards and won. David Carr threw for 33 yards (3-for-10 passing) and won. And Maddox called a timeout with one second left in the third quarter and the clock running. We can't have Ben in there if he's like that. Not in the playoffs.
5. I'm hesitant to announce that Fast Willie is back, because it was against the Browns, but he did look a lot more explosive, he got to the outside in a hurry, and was able to blow by people at the second level.
6. Didja notice a common theme on Sunday? When Willie was successful, my buddy Laszlo noticed that it was when the Steelers lined up in the I-Formation. When they lined up in a single back formation, the results were not as good. If we're not going to bring back Dan Kreider, we can at least stick with the I-Formation. I've never been a fan of the single back look and, if the Steelers are committed to Fast Willie and running the ball, that's the best way to do it. He's stated previously that he prefers to have a lead blocker in front of him to running out of a single back formation. So... why not use the system that works best for him?
7. We needed to win this game and we needed to win big. I'm glad that we finished 12-4, not 11-5. That one extra win was important for some reason.
8. I know I've mentioned this before but, the longer he's coach, the more I like Tomlin. And, I'm not saying anything bad about Cowher, but I find myself forgetting about Cowher more and more every day, especially since they seem to have placed Steely McBeam at the bottom of a well with Ted Levine yelling at him about putting the lotion in the basket. They don't show him on TV and I haven't seen him at games. I'm not worried about him, but it's just interesting that he went away so quickly and quietly.
   
9. I'm not sure if I'd rather be a Bengals fan, a Lions fan, or a Browns fan right about now. At least with the Lions and Bengals, you knew coming into the season that they would suck. Remember 1998? Remember how much that hurt? Imagine that, times ten, plus Ken Dorsey and that's what Cleveland's fans are going through right now. Remember 2006? I'd imagine it has to suck a little like that, except that the Browns just narrowly missed the playoffs in 2007, they didn't win the Super Bowl or anything.
10. I mentioned that recently, right? That the Steelers won Super Bowl XL? Well, I mentioned it now just in case.
    

Perspective

So, the loss yesterday sucked and, like I mentioned, was very disappointing.

But, taking a look at some scores from around the league, it got me to thinking. Sure, our latest effort against the Titans was, hands down, our worst game of the season (although you could make a real argument for the Eagles game), but, considering the strength of schedule we faced at the outset of the season and the fact that no one really knew what to expect from Tomlin in his second year, this has been a very heartbreak-free season.

Looking at the scores from the other games reminded me of this fact. And this list does not even include games where I could say, "Just be happy you don't root for the Browns, or the Lions, or the Bengals, or the Rams." These are all playoff teams, or at least teams that looked awfully good at some point during the season.

1. The Vikings choked one away at home when they had a shot to clinch the division.
2. Tampa, who could have locked up a playoff spot, let up 21 points in the fourth quarter.
3. Steelers West has lost four of their last five and lost by 40 to the Patriots yesterday. 40. Their last three losses have been by 28, 21, and 40 points. They clinched their division in Week 12 with a loss to the Giants (that one was only by 8), so they're going to the playoffs, but I wouldn't be supremely confident, or sober, if I were a Steelers West fan right about now.
4. The Broncos allowed 14 fourth quarter points and failed, yet again, to clinch their division. They've lost two in a row, with the latest loss to Buffalo. Buffalo started the season 4-1 and has since gone 3-7.
5. The Jets, who embarrassed the then 10-0 Titans in Week 12 and had several chances to lock up the #2 seed, lost on the road to Seattle. Seattle is 4-11.
6. The Chargers play the Broncos in Week 17 for the AFC West title. If the Chargers win, they'll take the division. At 8-8. Even if the Broncos win, they'll be 9-7 and division winners.
7. If you were a fan of the 10-5 hated Ravens (and if you are, why are you reading this blog?), the 11-4 Colts, the 10-5 Patriots, the 9-6 Jets, or the 10-5 Dolphins, wouldn't you be just a little upset that an 8-8 team or a 9-7 is going to get a home playoff game while your team gets forced out (or at least doesn't get a home game)?
8. How about the 8-6-1 Eagles, the 8-7 Redskins, 9-6 Cowboys, 9-6 Buccaneers, or 10-5 Falcons? Wouldn't you be peeved that Steelers West has been guaranteed a home playoff game for four weeks and will still get one even if they lose their fifth in six games in Week 17? And, at best, they'll be 9-7? And they've been outscored on the season by 12 points? Just a little peeved?
9. How about Jaguars fans? I bet you thought you'd be 11-4 at this point, not 5-10.
10. And, really, San Diego's too talented to be 7-8. They've had some bad breaks this year, for sure, but they shouldn't be 7-8.

So, that's the good news for today.

Steelers vs. Titans Review

My brother called me last night and asked if I was more angry or disappointed following the shit-kicking that the Titans handed us yesterday.

I'd have to say I'm more disappointed than anything.

We got away from everything that we had been doing during the winning streak and went right back to the suckitude that caused us to lose to the Giants and the Colts.

Turned the ball over too much, didn't play sharp in the second half (we kind of looked flat all day), and it just kind of seemed like a game that was doomed from the start.

A few points and thoughts:

1. Anything Phil Sims said shouldn't be taken too seriously (he called Santonio "San Antonio" and Bo Scaife "Bob Scaifes"), but he did mention at one point during the broadcast that none of the Steelers he talked to seemed to be all that concerned with getting the #1 seed. The people I talked to were very casual about the game, too. Given the fact that we were the #1 seed 115 times when Cowher was here and only went to one Super Bowl, then went and won as the #6 seed, then the third seeded Colts won the next year and the 5th seeded Giants won last year, I get the feeling that the players and fans could care less about seeding, so long as their team makes it into the playoffs.
2. Having said that, I think the players took the game too lightly and that Tomlin will exact his revenge. You'll see a lot of starters playing a lot longer than anyone thought they would next week against Cleveland, even though it's a meaningless game. I think Tomlin saw how quickly things can get away from you and he's going to send a message to all his players this week in practice and during the course of next week's game.
3. Willie Parker ran 18 times for 29 yards. That cannot happen again.
   
4. We made two trips into the red zone and came out with zero points. That cannot happen again.
5. Ben Roethlisberger fumbled four times, losing two. That cannot happen again.
6. He also threw two interceptions.
7. That's four turnovers and five fumbles. Come playoff time, that's going to be too much to overcome, just like it was yesterday.
8. The opposing team finally got called for holding against the Steelers defense. For those of you keeping track at home, that was the first holding penalty called on the opposing team since November 20th.
9. I'm actually not that put out that the Titans were the first team to gain 300 yards in a game on our defense. It had to happen eventually. I'm more put out by the fact that we only sacked Collins once and that we didn't get consistent pressure on him. And that we didn't really try to get consistent pressure on him.
10. There were a lot of comments after the game to the effect of, "We played like crap," "They played great," and, "It's a good thing this didn't happen during a playoff game. We'd have to wait until next season to fix where we screwed up." So, I think the players realized that they didn't have a good performance, either, and they'll be more focused next week and throughout the playoffs.

Here's one other thing I've been thinking about since the Dallas game. I think that, at some point, Tomlin and company realized that they could win games by running a pretty vanilla game plan. The games would be close and we might need to get creative in the second half to win them (i.e. getting away from the vanilla game plan), but we wouldn't need to give too much away in terms of tendencies, formations, and pre-snap reads for opponents that we might meet again in the playoffs/Super Bowl.

It seemed to me that there wasn't anything special or exotic -- especially in terms of the defense -- unleashed the last three weeks. In the game against New England, we did a lot of things -- especially on defense -- that we hadn't done yet this season. And we kicked the hell out of them.

The three games since the Patriots game, the defense has made some big plays, but it's pretty much been as a result of sending three guys and either James Harrison and playing an awful lot of Cover 2 behind that. We haven't done a lot of fire dogging, zone blitzing, or had very many jailbreak blitzes (Timmons and Polamalu haven't been very involved in the pass rush).

It's my opinion that we could be playing possum, trying not to give away too much in these last few games and really just trying to get into the playoffs in a good spot. Once we clinched the division and the #2 seed, that pretty much took the wind out of our creative sails.

I think we're going to see a much more creative game plan on both offense and defense for that first playoff game, regardless of who we play.

It's entirely possible that I'm grasping at straws here, but I really haven't seen any signature LeBeau creativity and not a lot of the formations and patterns that Arians unleashed earlier in the season, or even last season.

We kind of backed into the playoffs last year, though, so we need a strong finish against the Browns to close out this season. I'm not saying a 41-0 thrashing is in order, but we should use that game to get tuned up for our run to the Super Bowl.

Pro Bowl Thoughts

Well, there's the obvious reaction. "B-b-but, we have the NUMBER ONE DEFENSE! Only three guys?!?!?! We're 11-3! We faced a schedule so tough that Job would say, 'Ah, ya know what. It's too hard.' How can we only have three guys?"

Seriously, though, with Faneca and his automatic vote-in playing for the Jets, with Marvel Smith missing so many games, we couldn't send any offensive linemen. Our receivers don't catch enough passes and, unless they're handing out trips to Hawaii for each broken jaw doled out, Hines Ward isn't making it ever again. Too many quality tight ends in the AFC for Heath to make it.

On defense, 3-4 ends just don't go to the Pro Bowl unless Bill Cowher is coaching it. Ryan Clark has meant a lot to this defense and they wouldn't be nearly as effective without him, but Pro Bowls are granted based on interceptions.

Harrison and Farrior are already in and you can't vote in Foote or Timmons, much as I might love them.

Deshea Townsend and Bryant McFadden have alternated at cornerback, so neither of them are eligible. Ball Bitch Ike Taylor? Cornerbacks get voted in on interceptions and interceptions returned for touchdowns. Ike just doesn't have the hands. He's the personification of the cliche that says you take the best athletes that can't catch and put them on defense.

I'm of the opinion that, if Terrell Suggs is a Pro Bowl player, then LaMarr Woodley should really be a Pro Bowl player. But, in all reality, there are a number of outside linebackers that deserve to go over Woodley and Suggs, and Woodley's almost a defensive end. Since the Pro Bowl defense is going to be a 4-3 defense, there really shouldn't be three 3-4 outside linebackers in there anyway.

The only real slight is picking Brett Favre over Ben Roethlisberger. Favre has thrown 17 interceptions, the Jets have won in spite of him as opposed to because of him, and he's there more because of his mystique and the fact that he plays in a big market than the fact that he really deserves it.

And, if not Roethlisberger, why not Philip Rivers? I mean, if it's an all-star game, why not get all the statistical juggernauts you can? The Chargers are 6-8, but Rivers has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and is tied for the league lead with 28 touchdown passes. If you're going for guys that bring a lot of intangibles, you need to vote Roethlisberger in. No one has been more clutch thus far this season.

People make fun of video games, but I think that Madden Football had it right. When you vote in players, you base it this way:

The quarterbacks with the top three ratings are in.

The top three running backs in terms of yardage are in.

The top four receivers in terms of yardage are in.

The linemen and linebackers with the most sacks are in.

The cornerbacks with the most interceptions are in.

The safeties with the most tackles are in.

If you do it that way, there's debate like there's debate on the BCS, that stats and a computer determine the fates of players. But, really, you'd have a hell of a team if you gauged it that way.

There will be debate regardless, the current system is the standard system and the Madden system is the metric system. At least the Madden system is standardized.

16 Reasons the Titans Make Me Poop My Pants

When they were undefeated and seemed to have the #1 seed in the AFC locked up, everyone thought the Tennessee Titans were the best team in the AFC, maybe in the league.

Then they got blown out by the Jets. Then they honked that game last week in Houston. Now, they might get knocked down to being the #2 seed and the Steelers, who weren't assured of a playoff spot, nonetheless a division title two weeks ago, might be able to leapfrog them and become the #1 seed.

So... do the Titans suddenly suck and were suddenly the cat's pajamas? I have a feeling it's somewhere in the middle where we both have some sucky pajamas, but, then again, I hate cats.

I guess we'll have to break it down...

1. The Titans have allowed eight sacks this year. Eight. All year. Kerry Collins and his old man beard have only been sacked seven times. Vince Young and his chemical imbalance count for one of those. Eight times. All year. That's not to say that it's impossible to pressure Collins, it's just that he doesn't take a lot of sacks. And our defense feeds off of sacks. As my buddy Dan pointed out, though, they haven't faced James Harrison and company.
2. They also don't turn the ball over very much. They've lost eight fumbles out of 16 (that's actually a hell of a lot and something they should be concerned about) and Collins has only thrown seven interceptions. That's 15 turnovers in 14 games. Not exactly throwing the ball away, now are they? The 12 turnovers the Steelers have forced in the last three games are a MAJOR reason they've won those three games. We forced some quarterbacks into making some bad decisions the last few weeks, so maybe Troy Polamalu and company can pull some magic.
3. The Titans are +10 in turnover differential, which means that they've forced 25 turnovers. We've forced 27 turnovers, but we've also committed 20. We've lost eight fumbles, too. Out of 22 total fumbles. That's... that's something we should be concerned about.
4. Here's the thing about our turnovers, though. Ben Roethlisberger threw eight interceptions over three games against the Giants, Colts, and Redskins. I'm not saying you take those games out and say the turnovers don't count, but I am saying that he's only thrown one interception in the five games since that three games stretch. And he has seven games where he's thrown zero interceptions this season. And 12 games where he threw either zero interceptions, or only one interception. There's still the matter of the 22 total fumbles but, if the ball keeps bouncing our way and we don't lose any of those fumbles, I'm perfectly content to stick my head in the sand.
5. Tennessee is 7th in the league in sacks, with 38. There have been whispers that our pass protection kinda sucks.
6. They have the 5th-rated rushing attack in the NFL. But, know who's 2nd? The Giants? Know who's 6th? The hated Ravens. Know who's 7th? The Patriots. Wait, what? Really? The Patriots? What's up with Tom Brady that they're running so much? My point is that we faced three of the top seven rushing teams in the league this year and no one has run wild on us.
7. Rookie Chris Johnson is a very fast dude, he's decisive, and he's got excellent vision. If you give him a hole, he's going to do a lot of damage.
8. LenDale White is a very fat dude that is deceptively fast. If you let him get a head of steam, he'll destroy you. He also is a very effective short yardage back and has already scored 14 rushing touchdowns. Must be nice to have a big, fat, effective short yardage guy for when you get to, say, fourth and goal at the one.
9. The thing about Johnson and White is that they need space to operate in in order to be effective. Tennessee is the best team in the league at cutting off backside pursuit. This means that Johnson and White have plenty of time to use their vision, look for a hole to open up, and decide when to hit that hole without having to worry about someone attacking from their blind side and tackling them behind the line of scrimmage. But, aside from the occasional flurry of hair as Polamalu jumps in after a runner has already been stopped, or James Harrison/LaMarr Woodley coming in to strip the ball away from a player that is already in the grasp, the Steelers don't make a lot of plays from the back side. That means that Tennessee's primary advantage against the rest of the league doesn't mean much against the Steelers. Casey Hampton, Aaron Smith, and Brett Keisel/Travis Kirschke are not concerned about back side pursuit. They're looking to fill running lanes by practicing sound gap discipline -- the thing they do better than everyone else in the NFL. This means that the Titans will be down a blocker when they try to run -- because he'll be trying to contain back side pursuit that isn't there -- and the defensive line should be able to force White to run into the pile or force Johnson to stretch the play out to the sidelines. In both cases, they won't gain more than a couple of yards. There won't be a lot of negative plays in the running game, if any, but there won't be any big plays, either, and we'll also have the man advantage when Tennessee gets inside the five.
10. Let's go back to #5. That was pretty much there for shock and awe, but it's also a valid point. But, it's also a misleading stat. See, the Titans do something else better than any other team in the league: They pressure the quarterback with only their four down linemen. Of their 38 sacks, 34 have been registered by defensive linemen. Of those 34 sacks, end Kyle Vanden Bosch and tackle Albert Haynesworth are responsible for 12 of them. Why are Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth important? Because they won't be playing on Sunday, that's why. Granted, the Titans are so deep along the defensive line that it's almost like they have an eight man rotation, not back-ups and starters, but losing your two best pass rushers hurts. Imagine if the Steelers lost Woodley and Harrison. On second thought, let's not imagine that. Forget I mentioned it.
11. Here's the other piece of good news: When the Steelers have struggled to pass protect, it has been against teams that like to blitz: the Giants, the Eagles, the Cowboys, basically the entire NFC East. Teams that rush four linemen on most plays haven't been successful against us: Bengals, Colts, Jaguars, Texans. Even 3-4 teams that don't use a lot of exotic looks (or, more to the point, don't have a whole lot of talent at outside linebacker) have struggled to get to Roethlisberger: Patriots, Chargers, Browns. And, as I've mentioned before, if you take the NFC East out of the equation, we've let up 20 sacks in ten games. I'll take that. I know that Jeff Fisher checks this blog every day, so I hope he forgets this week. If the Titans start blitzing like crazy, we're boned. If they go with their base defense and their base pressure packages, I think we'll be good to go.
12. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan should not have made the Pro Bowl. He's not that great of a man coverage guy and, at least once a game, he does something that could be categorized as "ponderously dumbasstical." He'll blow a coverage, he'll overcommit to a running lane, he'll get flagged for some idiotic personal foul. One of those things (if not all) will happen in Sunday's game. We need to be prepared to strike when it happens. Santonio Holmes, I'm looking at you. Or, Nate Washington. Whichever.
    
13. Hines Ward has been quite clutch the last few weeks. I thought that he had lost a few miles an hour off his fast ball, but he seems to be stepping up at just the right point. This is going to be a tight game, so we need to be able to count on him to make those plays. He better not let us down.
14. Roethlisberger has made it a habit the past few games of forgetting how to play quarterback for the first 3 1/2 quarters of the game, then turning it on late. Can't have that happen on Sunday. It could get ugly.
    
15. I think we're going to continue to see a committee situation in the back field. Mewelde Moore just brings too much to the table to only give him a couple of carries per game and Fast Willie just isn't as explosive as he used to be. Tennessee's defense closes to the ball very, very, very quickly and their defenders are too smart to make a mistake and have Willie rip off a big run. Plus which, I think the days of Willie being able to do that at any moment are gone. I'm not writing his eulogy, but I will say that I'm now more glad than ever that we drafted Mendenhall. Hopefully his shoulder is okay.
16. If it is windy, we're screwed. Bitch Merger's punts will travel 20 yards in the air and Arians will still make Roethlisberger throw 60 yards down the field. The wind will affect the Titans, too, but we seem to go on about our business and ignore the elements. That's another mistake we can't make on Sunday.

So, to review:

Our gap discipline cancels out their back side contain. (That sounds dirty, but also sounds like Amish porn.)

Our pass rush cancels out their pass protection. We won't get sacks, but we'll get pressure.

Their injuries and lack of blitzing cancels out our crappy pass protection.

The three things they do best, we have boiled down to a push.

Therefore...

Who would you rather have: Kerry Collins or Ben Roethlisberger? Roethlisberger. Steelers 1, Titans 0.

Who would you rather have: Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Brandon Jones, and Bo Scaife (they're real guys, I promise, I didn't make them up), or Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington, and Heath Miller? Steelers 2, Titans 0.

Who do you trust more on third and one: LenDale White or Gary Russell? Ouch. I'm giving the Titans two for that one. Steelers 2, Titans 2.

Who is more likely to rip off a big run that shatter the collective wills of the opposing defense: Chris Johnson or Willie Parker? Sorry, gotta go Johnson. Titans 3, Steelers 2.

Rob Bironas or Jeff Reed with the game on the line? Reed. Barely. This is not a knock on Reed, but rather a compliment to Bironas. Titans 3, Steelers 3.

Who's angrier? Titans 4, Steelers 3.

Who has more to lose? Titans 5, Steelers 3.

Who is playing at home? Titans 6, Steelers 3.

Tomlin or Fisher? As much as I hate Jeff Fisher and his mullet, he's a great coach and a hell of a motivator. But, still gotta go Tomlin. Again, not a slight against Fisher. Titans 6, Steelers 4.

Game's on the line and the defense needs to make a stop. Titans or Steelers? Titans 6, Steelers 5.

Game's on the line and the offense needs to make a play. Titans 6, Steelers 6.

Who's luckier? Um... uh... The Steelers have caught their fair share of breaks during the season, but the Titans were on the fortuitous side of a number of plays and officiating decisions. Did they both use it all up already? Did Tennessee go through an unlucky patch the past three games and now they're getting back to good? Have the Steelers blown their luck wad?

I really have no idea.

What I do know is that these two teams are too closely matched for anything but luck to decide the outcome. If both sides execute the way they should, play the way they should, and the coaches and coordinators approach this game the way they've approached every game, it's up to lady luck to pick which side she favors.

I think the horse shoe passes to the Titans.

Prediction:

Titans 14, Steelers 10

Steeler vs. hated Ravens Review

Well, first of all, I meant that I wanted to take the over for the last game, not the under, so I'm both retarded and bad at proof reading.

Second of all, I thought the Steelers were going to come out firing, using their no huddle offense and as many receivers as they could muster (probably four, since a tailback would need to be kept in to block). They didn't.

As a matter of fact, I thought that this game was going to be one of those rare situations where one team would try to out-think or out-coach the other team and the results would be the opposite of what was expected. I thought that both offenses would go all pass wacky, which would shock the hell out of both defenses, and we'd have a high-scoring first half, followed by some excellent second half adjustments. Didn't happen, obviously.

But, if the hated Ravens had come out throwing like crazy, it eventually would have favored the Steelers. Big time. If we had a solution for Tony Romo and Matt Cassel in the spread offense, the high-flying antics of Philip Rivers and company, and were a couple of tipped balls away from shutting down Peyton Manning, then Joe Flacco and his unibrow don't scare me.

More to the point, no passing game in the NFL scares me. I'm working on something for the end of the season -- since, ya know, we have a bye and all -- about how truly amazing this defense is and how remarkable their season has been. Needless to say, I think they've been pretty friggin' awesome.

A Few Thoughts:

1. I read this, from a Steelers fan that e-mailed the ESPN.com blogger that writes about the AFC North: "When are teams going to learn that leaving games in the hands of the officials is not the way to win said games? If the Ravens stop the Steelers from driving 91.99 yards at the end of the game, then there's no chance of the officials deciding it was actually 92 yards instead." That's pretty much all the STFU that hated Ravens fans need to drink. How about your vaunted defense stops our offense for the first 91.99 of those yards before you bitch about the last .01? If the hated Ravens had stopped us at any point in that drive, there wouldn't be a controversial goal line play to discuss.
2. While we're at it, the refs just didn't call penalties in Sunday's game. I think that boils down to the fact that they could've called one on every play, so they just decided to back off. How many flags were there in the third and fourth quarters? One? Maybe? I think it might've been zero. Okay, I just looked it up. There were five. But, two of those were false starts.
3. I am still deeply concerned with Bitch Merger and his two bum hamstrings. Maybe it's just me, but I have this nagging feeling that a team that likes to run the ball and play defense shouldn't absolutely suck on special teams.

While we're at it, the other team that was succeeding with the, "play defense, run the ball, and do just enough to win the fourth quarter" strategy, the Tennessee Titans are next on the schedule.

They just lost to the Houston Texans of all teams. They were in a position to win heading into the game's final two minutes, but Kerry Collins overthrew his man. I don't care that Jeff Fisher needed balls like church bells to go for it on 4 and 3 when he could've just kicked a 49-yard field goal.

The point is that Ben Roethlisberger and company would have converted that fourth down and scored either a touchdown or the winning field goal with under a minute left to play. And, if they had kicked a field goal and made it -- who else is more clutch than Jeff Reed at this point? -- the defense would've held.

That's the big difference between the two teams. I was sure that the Steelers were going to score a touchdown and win, then hold the hated Ravens on their last drive. I was 100% sure of it. I wasn't even 70% sure that the Titans were going to pull out a victory on Sunday, even though they had a first down inside the opponent's 40.

They could come out fired up and beat us on Sunday, but I'm no longer scared of that Titans team in the least. I guess we'll find out what they're made of with the #1 seed on the line.

This Steelers team reminds me of the 2003 Patriots. They win close games, they play great defense, they play solid fundamental football. They hang around against good teams and find a way to win. They blow out bad teams, eventually pulling away in the fourth quarter.

They win ugly, but, damnit, they win. And, with a different guy stepping up as the hero each week, we're not putting too much of our mojo in one basket.

16 Reasons I Hate the Hated Ravens

I have decided that the hated Ravens don't make me poop my pants as much as they make everyone else poop their pants, especially the Steelers. Of course, the Steelers would only poop their pants because of the mutual respect that the hated Ravens and the Steelers share, so there's that.

I read this today and it started to get my blood up. This is what the rivalry with the Browns should be. But, right now, our rivalry with the Browns is about as much as a rivalry as the one between Texas and Baylor.

We need to make the most out of our rivalry with the hated Ravens while we can.

1. First rule, no mutual respect and no pooping of pants. Hatred only.
   
2. How the hell did Joe Flacco throw for 193 yards on us in the first game? How did it happen? Todd Heap was hurt, no one remembered that Mark Clayton was on the team, and Derrick Mason is 148 years old. How did he do it? I'm gonna go with the power of the unibrow. So, I hate Flacco because of that unibrow and because people are comparing him to Ben Roethlisberger.
3. The Steelers have 1,350 yards rushing (23rd) and the hated Ravens have 1,872 (5th). Know what the difference is? Know why they're so far ahead? Attempts. They run the ball almost 10 more times per game than we do, so they have a bunch more yards. I hate that everyone will look at the 5th vs. 23rd ranking and say that they're way better at running the ball than we are.
4. Flacco has thrown for 2,410 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Ben has 2,616 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The stats are basically identical, but who would you rather have? I mentioned I hate the comparisons, right?
5. Hines Ward is better than Derrick Mason, Santonio Holmes is better than Mark Clayton, Nate Washington and Limas Sweed could probably beat out Clayton for the second receiver job in Baltimore. Heath Miller is healthier than Heap. But... they still out gained us through the air in Week 4.
6. I hate that we're 10-3 and haven't clinched the division yet.
7. Not only have we not clinched the division, but we could miss the playoffs. At 10-3. It's not gonna happen, but the fact that it could makes me mad and fills me with hate. And the hated Ravens are the reason for that. If we played out west, we'd have already clinched our division like the 8-5 Cardinals and Broncos.
8. I hate how people talk about how hot the hated Ravens are right now. "They've won 6 of 7 and they've been beating up on teams." We've won 8 of 10 and haven't, at any point in the season, lost three games in a row. Baltimore lost their next two after we beat them in overtime.
9. Fans of the hated Ravens have been claiming that we "stole a win" or "got lucky" or, my favorite, that the hated Ravens "should have won" the last game. Yeah. They totally would've won if they hadn't lost. If we hadn't done all the things that allowed us to beat them, they would've emerged victorious. I hate that. Unless your name is Doctor Emmit Brown, revisionist history is a waste of time.
10. Because he is on my fantasy team, I hate Willis McGahee. He also went to Miami (FL).
11. Because, at best he sat there and did nothing while two people were murdered or at worst he killed two people, then wasn't dumb enough to rob someone in Vegas so he could go to jail, I hate Ray Lewis. I hate him a lot. Guess where Ray Ray went to school?
    
12. They say the hated Ravens have a pressure defense and that we can't protect the quarterback, but we only allowed three sacks that first game. First time Ben gets pressured, the announcers are going to talk about how we can't pass block and they're the greatest defense of all time. I hate that. Gonna be like the Redskins game all over again. And, this isn't revisionist history, this is just a stat: Our quarterbacks have been sacked 38 times this season; 21 times by NFC East teams (4 games), 17 times by everyone else (9 games). If we didn't have to play the NFC East, there wouldn't be the perception that we can't pass block.
13. I hate Le'Ron McClain because he reminds me of Jerome Bettis and we weren't the ones that drafted him.
14. I hate that there will be at least 30,000 Steelers fans in the stands on Sunday and we're 3 point underdogs because of "homefield advantage."
15. Haloti Ngata isn't anywhere near as good as Casey Hampton, but there will be comparisons on Sunday. Guess what? I kinda hate that.
16. The hated Ravens have been the luckiest, most opportunistic, most injury-free team in the universe over the past decade. They won 13 games in 2006 with no offense, a slow defense, and the ghost of Steve McNair at quarterback. And all anyone talks about is how we lucked out and got favorable calls in the 2005 playoffs. Man, I hate that.

Everyone else thinks that this game is going to end in a 0-0 tie, but I must be one of the few people on the planet that A) doesn't think it'll be close and B) doesn't think it'll be all that low scoring.

The over/under for this game is 34 and I'm taking the under.

Remember Myron Cope Night in 2005? Both teams came into the game needing a win, it was only Ben's second year, so they wanted to insulate him and not ask him to do too much, Jamal Lewis had just gotten out of prison, and Jerome Bettis was still playing. Oh. Anthony Wright was Baltimore's quarterback. If you're asking, "Who the hell is Anthony Wright?" my point has already been proved.

At any rate, everyone expected that game to end in a 0-0 tie. Or, at least, they expected that the two teams would run the ball a gazillion times and try to beat each other into submission. Instead, a total of 75 passes were attempted -- including one by No-Block Gardocki -- and the game ended 20-19, Steelers, covering the Over.

I think this game will take a similar path, with both teams throwing way more than they probably should. Roethlisberger is better than Anthony Wright and Flacco isn't as far along in his development as Roethlisberger was on that Halloween night.

We made Tony Romo and Matt Cassel look like totally incompetent assholes the past two weeks and we'll do it again to the man with the iron unibrow on Sunday.

Except this time, we'll actually make something out of those turnovers and score more than 20 points. Their offense? Not so much.

Prediction:

Steelers 27, Hated Ravens 10

Steelers vs. Cowboys Review

Well, it was a hell of a win for the Steelers and a hell of a choke job by the Cowboys. I guess that's what we've come to expect from these two teams in December, though.

The Good:

1. Yet another win and yet another come-from-behind victory for the Steelers. Once again, it was one of those situations where someone had to step up and make a play and one of those situations where Ben Roethlisberger had to put a crappy few quarters behind him and win the game.
2. He was able to do that -- by the way, he now holds the record for most games won by a quarterback in his first five seasons, which is a list that includes Dan Marino and Tom Brady -- because the defense kept us in the game yet again.
3. What a performance by the defense. Five turnovers, they scored a touchdown, and they kept the offense on the Cowboys side of the field for most of the game. They won the game and the fact that they were the far superior defense was the reason we pulled it out. Someone real smart must've predicted that.
4. Nate Washington really came through in crunch time, with three catches on that last drive. Heath Miller came through in the red zone with the touchdown that tied the game.
5. Terrell Owens only had three catches for 32 yards and Roy E. Williams had two catches for 16 yards. So, I guess some dumb ass was worried for nothing. And Romo averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt.

The Bad:

1. Roethlisberger averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt. The big difference between him and Romo was that Romo lost a fumbled and threw three interceptions, whereas Ben didn't turn the ball over. And that's why he won. Still a bad game by Roethlisberger, though. For about 3 1/2 quarters.
2. Where was Hines Ward? One catch for two yards, that's where Hines was. I understand that he's having a bigger year than Santonio Holmes and that defenses should focus on taking him away, but I didn't think they needed to focus on him that much. And, even when defenses have focused on him in the past, he's still gotten something decent. At least more than one friggin' catch for two lousy yards.
3. According to the stat line, the offensive line played a bad game. I think that it was a combination of them sucking and Dallas coming into the game prepared and playing well, but you don't let up five sacks if you've played a good game.
4. Speaking of bad, how about 26 carries for 70 yards and a 2.7 yards per carry average? How about the fact that the Cowboys and rookie Tashard Choice ran for 95 yards on 26 carries (3.7 yards per carry) against our vaunted run defense. We usually don't win when we get outrushed. Or outgained.
5. Yep, we got outgained 289-238.

The Ugly:

1. We forced five turnovers and held them under 300 yards. We started one drive on their 25 and another on their 22. And we still needed a defensive touchdown to score 20 points.
2. Bitch Merger averaged 32.8 yards per punt. Sure, it was windy, but their guy -- and I'll have you know that their starting punter, Matt McBriar was placed on IR earlier this season, so they have us many excuses as we do -- averaged 40 yards per punt.
3. We also punted six times with five three-and-outs.
4. A team that has Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, Hines Ward, and a quarterback who's almost six and a half feet tall, throws a pass short of the goal line on third and goal from the one. And, for those of you that care, throwing a flare pass like that where the receiver actually isn't in the end zone is a mistake. Either they called the wrong play or Carey Davis cut his route short. In that situation, when you're that close, you never, ever, ever, ever leave it up to chance that you'll make it in the end zone. You should already be in the end zone, so that when you catch it, it's instantly a touchdown and you don't have to do any work to make it a touchdown. I watched the replay a couple of times and realized that Davis may have cut the route short because the linebacker on the play successfully read it and probably would've intercepted the pass had Davis been in the end zone. However, one would hope that Ben would've tucked the ball and taken the sack. At that point, it would've been fourth and goal from the five and we would've done the smart thing and kicked the field goal.

All that having been said, I have a few more thoughts:

1. Even though he went for it on fourth and one when he shouldn't have and even though everyone in the stadium knew that they were going to run Gary Russell to the left to try to get that yard, I still like Tomlin a lot. I think it was the wrong call and, since they threw the ball on third down, no one would fall for play action... but, still. I still like him. I have a feeling that he's always going to challenge the players to go out and win the game instead of trying not to lose it. That instills the players with confidence -- sure, it can be a crushing blow when they fail -- but it makes them think that coach trusts them and that coach has the confidence in them to get into that same situation while the game is still on the line to try again if that attempt fails. Like I said, I would've kicked it, but I like Tomlin's moxie and I'm looking forward to the next ten years of second-guessing him.
2. We're no longer a power running team. We don't have the mentality and we aren't physical enough. We're also not talented enough, nor bold enough, to be a passing team. So... we're kinda screwed on offense.
3. I'm going to (hopefully) defend this statement at a later date -- when I have more time and more data -- but I seriously believe this is the best Steelers defense I have seen in person. I'm not challenging the Steel Curtain teams of the '70s, I'm talking about the 90s teams and even a couple of the teams from this decade. This is the best Steelers defense I have seen with my own two eyes, being fully aware of what a good defense looks like.
4. This defense may actually be good enough to take us all the way. The Ravens did it in 2000 with Trent Dilfer. The Bucs did it in 2002 with Brad Johnson. In those years, there wasn't a dominant team that everyone was gunning for. Just a whole lot of really good teams. The Steelers are in the mix with all the really good teams in the league in 2008 and have beaten a few of them.
5. I would also take Ben Roethlisberger over Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer.
   

16 Reasons the Cowboys Make Me Poop My Pants

First and foremost, I hate the Cowboys. My buddy Dave always said that his second-favorite team was whoever played Dallas that week. A couple years, that team went 11-5, which was friggin' sweet.

Ah, the Dave Campo Era. I still say that the collapse of the Cowboys was Chan Gailey's fault, not Campo's and that Bill Parcells benefited from some of the sound draft picks that Campo made and players that he developed. But, still, the fact that Dallas went 5-11 three straight years makes me smile.

However, they were 13-3 last season and, after struggling through Tony Romo's broken thumb, they appear to be back in 2007 form. And they need to make a statement. And we're the next team on the schedule.

And I'm already wasting some of my 16 points. Let's get to it.

1. People talk about Marion Barber. People talk about how awesome he is. They talk about how he might be limited by a dislocated toe. (Don't make fun of anyone with a toe injury. Jonathan Ogden is 12 feet tall and was felled by a toe injury. He will eat you and your loved ones.) I think he'll play and he's definitely a concern, but I think Jim Brown's clone would still struggle against this defense. We've faced too many great running backs and shut them down too many times for me to think otherwise. As soon as someone goes off on us, I'll change my tune.
2. The one dude that does scare me is Felix Jones, Barber's back-up. He's crazy-fast, he's a big play guy, and he's been hurt most of the year after he got off to a good start. He was a first round draft choice. He's got some incentives in his contract, to be sure, that he figured he was going to hit, but then he missed a bunch of time. He probably already spent that money in Week 5 before he got hurt. He probably has some Escalades and some gold-plated hot tubs and some other stuff that rich people buy that he's gotta pay for. Those incentives and his desire to meet them is what scares me. Potential + Desire + Desperation = Badness for the Steelers Defense.
3. Where Barber worries me is when he comes out of the back field as a receiver. He has 47 catches and didn't have a quarterback for a month. He had a 70 yard reception for a touchdown against Steelers West this season. Remember how LaDanian Tomlinson hurt us? Remember how Clinton Portis hurt us? Think about that and add dreadlocks.
4. Terrell Owens, really, I don't think he'll be a big factor. He's someone that has to be game planned for. He's someone you need to keep an eye on. He's their big play guy in the passing game. He's talented, he's big, he's fast, and he does sit-ups in his driveway. He should scare me, but he doesn't. And, anyone that's read my stuff since 2004 (Bruddah, I'm looking at you) knows that Troy Polamalu shut Owens down when he was an Eagle. No matter where Owens lined up, Troy followed him. He had seven catches, but only 51 yards. And no touchdowns. That was four years ago on Heinz Field turf that hadn't yet been murdered by November. Now that Troy's back in top form, Owens is four years older, and he'll be trying to cut on sandy, crappy, cold grass, I just don't see him having a big game.
5. Here's the thing, though. That 2004 game was against the Eagles, not the Cowboys. Andy Reid doesn't know that the I Formation exists. He had 20 receivers on the field, so Troy could rove around and shadow Owens. Dallas will work primarily out of the I, or some other two back, one tight end, two wide receiver set. Does Ike Taylor cover Roy E. Willams (the other receiver)? Does he move to safety? Do you move gay to safety? Does Ryan Clark move into the box? Do they play straight defense and put Ike on Owens? Dick LeBeau is smarter than me, so I'm sure he's got something figured out. But, if we don't have the Troy-Owens match-up, then maybe Owens has a big game, unless we handcuff Troy and make him help over the top. Don't see that happening, either, though.
6. So, about Roy E. He's a talented dude. He was stuck in Detroit for the past few years (same draft class as Roethlisberger) and the Cowboys traded picks for him like he was Herschel Walker or something, so they must see something. He was a #1 receiver in his previous life with the Lions and he didn't just happen into that. Regardless of what Fantasy Football owners think of him (I got nailed, same as everyone), he's big, he's fast, he's in his home state of Texas, he's finally with a winning team, and he probably knows the offense by now. Someone that has all that going for him... you really want William Gay covering him?
7. The Cowboys also happen to have Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin. Austin has three touchdowns on 12 catches. Every fourth time he catches the ball, he scores. Crayton, working as the third guy most of the season, has 31 catches. That would put him third on the Steelers, ahead of Nate Washington and Heath Miller. They're both big, they're both fast. Sure, they might have Dwight Stone's hands, but they're still much better than our third and fourth guys. And, 43 catches and six touchdowns between those two guys (Crayton has three touchdowns, too)... I mentioned they didn't have a quarterback for a month, right? At least Deshea Townsend and Bryant McFadden should be back.
   
8. Nevermind that the Cowboys have all those guys, all that talent at running back and wide receiver. They also have Jason Witten, who, now that he's healthy, is pretty much the best tight end in the NFL. He can stretch the seam, he can go deep, he can run after the catch, they throw screens to him. Chances are, they'll line him up on the strong side opposite LaMarr Woodley, who is still learning the linebacker position from a coverage standpoint. Roy E. and Owens can tear us up on the perimeter and Witten can make us pay underneath. Which is awesome.
9. Here's what we need to do: Play Cover 1. Clark plays centerfield and shades to Roy E's side. Troy follows Owens to whatever side of the field he's on and plays in the box on that side. If he bites too hard on playaction, we're screwed, but he'll give deep help to Ike or McFadden otherwise, which will keep the big play guys in the passing game in check. Gay/Townsend/Fernando Bryant should be able to handle Crayton and Austin. With the linebackers in zone formation, that should equal a big pile of rolling death for anyone that catches anything underneath, with Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior, and Larry Foote acting as roving assassins against any poor schmuck that catches the ball. That still leaves the seam open for Witten, but the hope is that we'll be able to cover that the way we always cover the deficiencies in our pass coverage: By getting to the quarterback. And, per usual, how well we get to quarterback will go a long way towards determining how well we do on defense. That's James Harrison and Woodley territory. Go get 'em, guys.
10. On offense, we just need to be able to run the ball. I looked it up and I realized that we're 22nd in the league. Twenty. Second. I don't care if Mewelde Moore needs to pull a Billy Cole out there, we need to get some yards on the ground.
11. Their front three has two guys that I wanted the Steelers to draft at some point in ends Chris Canty and Marcus Spears. They also have Jay Ratliff, who's good, I guess, even though he's about 50 pounds lighter than Casey Hampton. He has six sacks, so it makes me think that he's going to blow by Justin Hartwig at least once. But, really, their front three isn't blowing my skirt up.
12. It's their linebackers, which are the foundation of any good 3-4 defense, that kinda make me a little skittish. DeMarcus Ware has 15 sacks, but he's a streaky kind of guy like Joey Porter. If he has a good match-up, he'll get a ton of sacks. If not, he'll disappear. I would like to take this opportunity to point out that Marvel Smith did not participate in practice and it looks like Max Starks will start once again. So... good match-up for Ware!
13. The Cowboys have 40 sacks this season. They blitz a lot. They're a high risk/high reward kind of a defense. Since they have enough guys in the secondary that they can afford to let Pacman Jones come and go as he pleases, they feel as though they can keep blitzing like there's no tomorrow and it won't come back to bite them. And, honestly, aside from that crazy-ass Eagles game in Week 2 and the bizzare Rams game in Week 7, it hasn't come back to bite them. This is actually a pretty damn good defense, they're just overshadowed by their offense.
14. Ben Roethlisberger does pretty well against the blitz and can often pull some miracle play out of his ass to get a huge first down or a touchdown, but I have a bad feeling like the Cowboys are going to bring a lot of guys early. If they get in too quick and Ben goes down too many times, it's going to end up like the Eagles game for us, which was not good. If we can beat the blitz early and hit some big plays, then we can get these guys on their heels. We can't have bad reads, we can't have mix-ups between Hines and Santonio and Ben, and we can't let them pile up a bunch of sacks and/or turnovers early in the game. They're going to be fired up, they've got a lot of momentum going their way given the success they've had since Romo's return. All they need is something to fan those flames. The fans will be fired up, too. So will the Steelers, but the last thing we need is for them to go up 14-0 early, take the crowd out of the game, and have the defense start to gamble and play stupid because they don't have faith in the offense. We've kept it together very well thus far. But this game has the potential to make everything unravel.
15. We need Fast Willie back. Ware's fast and a good run defender, but he plays on the weak side. If we can run to the strong side at Bradie James (c'mon, with a name like that, how tough can he be?) and Willie can bounce a couple to the outside, we've got a shot at making some big plays in the running game. Historically, Willie has gotten his yards in chunks. The reason we're 22nd in the league is because those chunks are coming this season. We need to get those chunks back. Their safeties are too aggressive and sometimes take bad angles and their cornerbacks don't tackle very well or support the run with all that much enthusiasm. This is a good situation for Willie to go off. And he really, really needs to so we can get some traction going into the postseason.
16. Wade Phillips gave a bunch of his veteran (read: old) guys the day off yesterday. No injuries, no real reason, he just gave them the day off. I just have this feeling that, early in the game, they're not going to be ready to get hit. So, from the first snap, we need to hit all the guys that got the day off, even if they're standing peacefully on the sidelines. The one BIG thing we have going for us is that we're a far more physical team than the Cowboys. The day off works in our favor and we need to take advantage of it.

It's a close call, so I was going to take the home team. But, we're 4-2 at home and 5-1 on the road, so that doesn't really work.

I was going to let my hatred of the Cowboys cloud my judgement and pick against them because I hate them. Couldn't do that in good conscience.

I was going to pick against Wade Phillips on the road versus Mike Tomlin because Phillips looks like someone's dumbass uncle and Tomlin's a smart guy. Didn't feel right.

Here's what felt right:

I have Romo and Witten on one of my fantasy teams. That team has a bye because I finished as the second seed in that league. I was very thankful about that in the wake of Thanksgiving, because I didn't want my fantasy season to hinge on Romo's and Witten's ability to score points against our defense.

Any time this season when we've faced an offense that was on a roll and looked unstoppable, we've stopped them. We even did a decent job against the Colts, but a couple of freak plays and three interceptions by Ben undid that.

I think we put this game on the defense. We're 9-3 and our offense is 24th overall, 19th in passing, and 22nd in rushing. Yep. That bad. And we're 9-3.

I give us one more week with the defense carrying us.

Prediction:

Steelers 23, Cowboys 14

Three Things...

...that jumped out at me today:

1. The Patriots are screwed. Matt Cassel is referring to himself in the third person: "It's not about Matt Cassel," Cassel said. "This is about 11 guys on offense trying to get better. This isn't about one guy's performance or Matt Cassel and his stock rising or dropping. I could care less about that. I care about winning ballgames."
2. I like Willie Colon: "I think we got the sense that we started to wear on them a little bit going into halftime (with the score tied 10-10)," Colon said. "As a line, we kind of saw their faces. We knew if we kept pounding the rock, we kept sticking to it and knuckling up with them, they were going to break. And they did."
3. Guess what our record was after 13 weeks in 2007? Yep. 9-3. Don't mean to urinate in anyone's Cornflakes, I'm just sayin'.
   

One Other Side Note...

My brother called me after Jeff Reed (don't say anything bad about Jeff Reed, or Weidman and I will come to your house and kill you and all your blood relations) missed that field goal in the fourth quarter.

He said: "We have to understand that, when we play teams in the playoffs, we're going to be playing teams that are as good as the Patriots.  Teams that are as good as the Patriots need to be put away.  Emphatically.  We just failed to do that.  We need to work on this for the postseason."

I couldn't agree more.

I'm going to say this, though: You can count on this defense to win games for you.  This is a championship defense.  I would also like to say, though, that I'd rather be in a position not to worry about it.  However, if I must worry about it, I'll be worried less with this defense.

Steelers vs. Patriots Review

Remember when I said that this game against the Patriots had the potential to be a "signature game" for this season?

Remember when I failed to post a preview for this game?

Well, those were both mistakes.

I didn't post a preview for the following reasons:

1. I got too busy with the holidays.
2. My uncle's house is not set up to accommodate people who are addicted to the Internet (no WiFi and the best Ethernet connection would have required me to write from his floor in the family room).
3. This game scared the shit out of me.

Consider:

1. Matt Cassel had just thrown for 400 yards two games in a row.
2. The Patriots finally remembered that they had Randy Moss and Wes Welker and it didn't matter who was throwing the ball to them.
3. The Patriots realized that the best way to save the season was to spread the formation out and throw every play.
4. The best way to beat the 3-4 defense (especially the Steelers), historically, was to go to the shotgun formation and deploy at least three wide receivers in the formation.
5. We were down our #1 and #3 cornerbacks.

So, I was wrong to not write a review for this game, because I had at least five reasons that the Patriots made me poop my pants.

I was also wrong in calling this a game that had the potential to be a "signature game".  Yes, we won 33-10.  Yes, we did this to the Patriots, who are talented enough to be 7-4 (now 7-5) without their starting quarterback, starting end, starting outside linebacker, starting tailback, and starting free safety.  Yes, we did this in Foxboro, not in Pittsburgh.  But, this was a signature game for the defense, not the entire team.

We forced five turnovers.

We only let up rushing yards in garbage time or against gimmick plays (sorry, but running a draw with less than two minutes left is a gimmick play)

We held Matt Cassel, who had two consecutive 400 yard games, to 169 yards on 39 attempts, with two interceptions and zero touchdowns.  That's 4.3 yards per attempt before you count the yards lost on sacks.  After you count those, that's 3.7 yards per pass attempt.  That's utterly ridiculous it's so good.  Completely insane.

Throughout the course of the season, we have lived and died (mostly lived and won) by this defense.  And it bailed us out again.

I have no way to quantify how good this defense is.  I have no means of comparison.  I have no way of explaining how they haven't suffered a letdown of epic proportions yet.

They've faced teams that like to line up and beat you with the running game in the Jaguars, Giants, Redskins, and the hated Ravens.

They've faced teams that like to throw the ball out of the spread formation and test the depth of your secondary like the Eagles, Patriots, and Colts.

They've faced teams that can do both, like the Chargers and Texans.

They've faced desperate teams, like the Bengals (twice) and the Browns.

They've held up against them all.

I'm done.  I've tried to doubt this defense.  I've tried to say bad things about Ike Taylor and James Harrison.  I've tried (last season) to destroy Lawrence Timmons.  I've tried my best to say that they aren't as good as the statistics say they are and I've been made to look like a fool every time.  I've been happy to look like a fool, but I've looked like a fool.

In all fairness to me, I had the Giants defense and the Steelers defense on my one fantasy team and dropped the Giants in Week 7, thinking that the Steelers would be excellent from here on out.  But, really, I've doubted them on a number of occasions, particularly against the Colts and the Patriots, but I don't doubt them now.  

I will not doubt them again.  Unless they screw up.

But, this was not a signature game.  The offense needs to get their shit together for that.

Steelers vs. Bengals Review

Well, I've actually heard from a couple of regular readers of this blog (yes, two out of three) wondering why there wasn't a "16 Reasons the Bengals Make Me Poop My Pants" post. I didn't forget, I was just going to post it after I got home, but before the game started on Thursday. Then I got tickets to the game and that was that.

Yep. I was at the game on Thursday night and kept things in check (for the most part). My buddy Chris is a champion, because he somehow managed to score two beers before last call, even though he was sitting in his seat when realized there were only 16 seconds left in the third quarter. It was impressive. I think he teleported to the front of the line.

And, of course, most importantly, I notched another W and I'm now 11-1. It still stings that I have a loss in there, but I guess you can't win them all.

And, I guess, it was pretty cool that the Steelers won, too. They're 8-3 now, have a game and a half lead over the hated Ravens, and, if the season ended today, they'd be the #2 seed in the AFC.

But, really, we were huge favorites over the Bengals, they were 1-8-1, and they were still in the game with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Much like the game in Cincinnati, where it was still 17-10 in the fourth quarter, we kind of wore them down and eventually they rolled over.

Good teams don't do that, though. The Colts sure didn't. At the risk of sounding like a I'm beating a dead horse with a broken record, I'm going to say this again: We've got to play better if we're going to beat playoff teams.

We haven't played a complete game yet. We've had a ton of great defensive games, a couple of good offensive games, and a few in there somewhere that the special teams didn't such major balls, but we haven't had a game where we've excelled on offense, defense, and special teams. Nothing where we're kicking ass in all three phases of the game.

This team reminds me a lot of the 2004 team. They're winning games and they're gutting things out with a number of injuries, but they're not really impressive when they do it. That 2004 team played the NFC East and that was Roethlisberger's break-out rookie season. We went 15-1 that season because we played a lot of crappy teams, but that was a very similar team with a very similar feel.

The difference is that the 2008 Steelers haven't had a signature game like the 2004 team -- they had two in a row against the Patriots and especially against the Eagles, where they went on a 64-23 run and became the only team to be undefeated teams in back-to-back weeks that late in the season. That was the point where everyone finally took notice of the 2004 team and they started to become the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl.

Of course, that team faded late, Ben got tired and injured, and the 2004 season was choked away at home. Against the Patriots. In the AFC Championship game. Again.

Now, the 2005 team was very similar to the 2004 team in terms of personnel and character, but they played a tougher schedule and were 7-4 after 11 games. They didn't have their signature game until Week 14, where they beat up on a very talented Bears team in the snow. That game started their eight game winning streak to end the season and, in February of 2006, the Steelers won Super Bowl XL. It had been a while since I mentioned that. Felt good.

Last season, the team kinda limped into the playoffs and their only signature win game in Week 9 against the hated Ravens. And, really, the most significant thing that happened there was that I met Hank Williams Jr.

So... there hasn't been a signature game thus far this season. The bad news is that the only game that has potential for us to crush an overmatched opponent is Week 17 against Cleveland, which, to me, is very close to 2005, when we played Cleveland in Week 16 and Charlie Batch threw a touchdown to Quincy Morgan in the fourth quarter to make it 41-0. I miss Batch almost as much as I miss the Charlie Frye drinking game.

But, there are plenty of opportunities for that signature game to happen:

1. Next week against the Patriots. We'll have had 10 days to rest and they still don't have Tom Brady. If we kick the crap out of them, it'll exorcise some demons from last season and it will also mean that we'll have kicked the crap out of them in their stadium, where we've historically gotten our asses beat down.
2. Week 14 against Dallas. It's at home, they will have had 10 days to rest and prepare, and they may have their shit together at that point. Tony Romo will be coming on strong, their defense is actually pretty well suited to playing in cold weather, and we can see Troy follow Terrell Owens around all game... just like he did in 2004 against the Eagles.
3. How about the week after that? We travel to Baltimore to play the hated Ravens and the division could still be up for grabs. No chance for a Hank Williams Jr. sighting, but still pretty cool.
4. Week 16 against the Titans really only works in two scenarios -- If we haven't lost games 1-3 and they're either 14-0 or 12-2. At 14-0, we can end their perfect season. At 12-2, that means we hold the tiebreaker and makes the last game relevant. Even if we beat the 13-1, 11-3, or 10-4 Titans, it's only a signature game if we win by a lot. If we just beat them, say, 11-10, or something, then we went out and beat a good team on the road. And that's about it. If we thwump them, though, that's a feather in our cap for the season and for the postseason, since we're going to be seeing them again.

My thinking at this point is that we're making the playoffs and we're playing a home game. The Jets still look really unpredictable and could finish out with a better record than us just because they get to play the AFC East, AFC West, and NFC West, which are some of the worst divisions in football, whereas we have to play the AFC South and the NFC East, two of the better divisions.

One thing we need to do before the end of the season. I would prefer that we do this in the next 10 days before the Patriots game:

We need to get Bitch Merger back or find someone else to punt the ball. Paul Ernster's leg belongs in the Smithsonian with all the other old, worthless crap that's only behind glass because it's obsolete.

We need another punter. I don't care if it's Merger. I don't care if it's Vulva (though that might be difficult). I don't care if it's Josh Miller or Gardocki (difficult, but not impossible). I don't even care if it's Reggie Roby (too soon?).

We need someone. Anyone. Not Ernster. I don't want our playoff fate to be tied to his right leg. Or his left leg. Either one of them.

Steelers vs. Chargers Review

I needed to wait a little while before I posted this so that I could cool off. The officiating was horrendous and I'm not just limiting that criticism to the last play, which clearly should have been a touchdown. The NFL has admitted that it should have been a touchdown, the refs admitted that they were wrong, and no one is going to get fined for complaining about it. The NFL still isn't going to fix anything, but they're real sorry. Which is about all we can hope for, I guess.

I'm talking about that lame-ass pass interference call in the first quarter that set up their only touchdown. I'm talking about phantom holding calls -- the last one on Sean McHugh actually wasn't bad, just ill-timed -- flags getting picked up when they shouldn't have been dropped in the first place (everyone I've talked to knows that it's not possible to get flagged for illegal contact if the quarterback is outside of the pocket), and not calling holding when there was holding (in the end zone on James Harrison is the first case that springs to mind, but there were others). There's something wrong with how a game is called if one team has 115 penalty yards and the other has five.

The Good:

1. Fast Willie had 115 yards on 25 carries against a damn good front seven.
2. For as many times as we passed the ball -- 45 dropbacks! -- Ben Roethlisberger was only sacked four times. That's still a lot. That's still too many. But, it's a better ratio than we had earlier in the season.
3. Speaking of Roethlisberger, he averaged over seven yards an attempt. Sure, it was the worst pass defense in the NFL, but at least he threw for 300 yards and didn't throw an interception.
4. The pass defense held up, even though there wasn't a ton of pressure on Philip Rivers. He came into the game with some impressive statistics -- as I mentioned -- and was held to 164 yards (6.3 per attempt), no touchdowns, and was intercepted twice.
5. We shut LaDanian Tomlinson down.
6. Troy Polamalu is back in 2005 form and might be better than he was in 2005. He forced two turnovers, scored a touchdown, made a bunch of plays in the back field, and contained Antonio Gates. Yes. I'm pretending the last play counted.
7. Matt Spaeth might work better for this offense than Heath Miller. Since he can't block, they don't depend on him too much in the running game. But, since he can't block, they assume he can catch, so they look for him in the passing game.

The Bad:

1. The offense gained 432 yards and scored nine points. That's pathetic.
2. Were 0-3 in Goal-To-Go situations. Three trips inside the 10, three failures. Note to Tomlin: "Running back left" was only guaranteed success when Faneca played for us. Now, everyone is looking for it and everyone can stop it. Maybe try a play action pass on the next third and goal, huh?
3. Paul Ernster averaged 31 yards per punt. Kinda makes me long for the days of Bitch Merger and his two bad hammies.
4. We averaged 17 yards a kick return, had zero punt returns, and totally screwed the pooch on the free kick after the safety.
5. So, basically, our special teams are atrocious, even though our coverage units did a pretty good job.

The Ugly:

If I told you that we played a team, forced three turnovers (I'm counting the last one), scored a touchdown, got a safety, didn't turn the ball over, and outgained them 432-225, what would you think the final score was? Gotta be at least 24-10, right? Maybe 34-13? Even going with a best case scenario and assuming the refs got it right, it's an 18-10 victory.

Choking in goal to go situations isn't going to beat anyone in the playoffs.

Crappy special teams play isn't going to beat anyone in the playoffs.

Failing to capitalize on turnovers isn't going to beat anyone in the playoffs.

We've reached the point in the season where thinking about the playoffs isn't a jinx-worthy endeavor. If we make the playoffs, we've got to play much better and much more efficient than we have the past two weeks.

We'll probably be able to get past the Bungles with at least a tie if we play like this on Thursday, but there's no way we beat the Patriots or the Titans, or probably the hated Ravens playing sloppy football like that.

Reason #17

I was going to balance the Philip Rivers criticism I had in the 16 Reasons posts with some stats and observations that point out just how good a season Rivers is having, but those got left out because I was in a hurry to get it posted and forgot to put the information in there...

1. The Chargers have scored 244 points this year and Tomlinson has only scored 30 of those points. To put that in perspective, they scored 412 points in 2007 and Tomlinson was responsible for 114 of those. In 2006, the ratio was 492-198. So, yeah. He's being phased out (or at least is less effective, so they need to find other ways to score) and Philip Rivers is being phased in. They have 244 points and Rivers has 21 touchdown passes, so he's responsible for 126 of those 244 points.
2. Against those 21 touchdowns, he's thrown only eight interceptions. He also has 2,354 yards passing and is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. He's only been sacked 12 times. That's just a bunch of rare statistics right there. Usually, if you have that high of an average, you're throwing high-risk passes. That means more chances for incompletions (he's hitting on 65.4% right now), more chances for interceptions, and more opportunities for the defense to sack you. But, that hasn't happened to Rivers.
3. Pretty much, he's having a hell of a season.
4. Still doesn't scare me, though.
   

16 Reasons the Chargers Make Me Poop My Pants

So, I didn't write a review for the Colts game. A few reasons for that.

1. My first loss watching the Steelers play. I'm 10-1, but that first one is always the hardest.
2. Due to poor planning on my part and lack of an acceptable number of ATMs on Heinz Field's part, I spent an hour or so getting wings and missed most of the second and third quarters.
3. Due to WAAAAAAAAY too much beer on my part, the fourth quarter is kinda fuzzy. Like, well-maintained Chia Pet fuzzy.

I looked at the stats and the highlights from the game, so I think I have a good grasp on how things went down and what things look like for this week. So, without further ado...

1. These aren't your father's Chargers. Or, your cousin's Chargers. You know, your cousin? The one who started following them in 2005? Sure, you could say that they're a 4-5 team that lost their first two games in the closing seconds, so they should be 6-3 if not for Dante Rosario and Ed Hoculli (yes, you were supposed to say, "Who?" to both of those guys). But, they also let up 39 points to Denver, lost to Miami, and lost to Buffalo. They snuck by Oakland and needed a missed extra point and a failed two-point conversion to beat the Chiefs.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson is not the same player he once was. Not even close. I mean, there are some that argue that he put up huge numbers for years because of carries, red zone opportunities, and running behind a great offensive line. So, maybe he wasn't the best back in the league the last five years, but he was up there. Now, he's not there at all. He's averaging 3.8 yards a carry, has only scored four touchdowns in nine games (most seasons, he'd have 20 by now), and he's played crappy defenses like the Saints, Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders.
3. So, ordinarily, I'd say we have to stop Tomlinson to win, but I don't think that's first priority. I think we'll stop him. We've stopped better running backs running behind better lines already this season, so we can stop Tomlinson.
4. Where we have to worry is when Tomlinson gets out of the back field and becomes a receiver. During his career, he has 53 carries against us for 189 yards, but he also has 20 receptions for 110 yards. Granted, the average for the receptions isn't much better, but that's weighed down by a six catch for eight yards effort when we kicked the shit out of them in 2003 (and I was there). We always seem to act like he's the only guy on the field when the Chargers run, but we somehow lose track of him when they pass. He's dangerous in the open field and we can't let him kill us when he catches the ball. James Farrior, LaDanian Tomlinson. LaDanian Tomlinson, James Farrior. James, tell us what Tomlinson had for lunch.
5. The fact that Antonio Gates is awesome is no longer a secret. I know it, you know, hell, Dante Rosario knows it. However, people keep losing track of him (or, ya know, get beat by him, whichever). He leads the team in receptions and touchdowns. He has six touchdowns and his longest touchdown is for 30 yards. Think we might wanna keep an eye on this dude in the red zone? Sick Troy on him. He usually draws the other team's best guy. That has worked for the most part. I mean, look who was covering Reggie Wayne on his 65-yard touchdown last week. It was ball bitch Ike Taylor, not Troy. Have Woodley or Harrison chuck him when he comes off the line, then have Troy keep an eye on him.
6. Silver lining: Tomlinson is third on the team in receptions with 33. Gates has 38. That's 71 catches by the tight end and the running back. Know what other team has a really great running back-tight end combination? The Washington Redskins.
7. Silver lining inside the silver lining: #2 on that list is receiver Vincent Jackson and #4 is receiver Chris Chambers. Both average over 17 yards a reception. The Chargers only throw deep to those guys. To throw deep, you need to hold the ball for a while. The Steelers have 34 sacks in nine games. Philip Rivers had knee surgery in the offseason. I'm sure that all of these things add up to a big pile of awesome that should in no way end with Rivers flopping around on the ground like Carson Palmer circa January 2006. Not saying I'm hoping it will happen, but their back-up is Billy Volek.
8. Side note on Chambers: He is having the weirdest season of all time by a receiver. He has five touchdowns, but only 16 catches. He's been targeted 34 times, but has a bunch of drops. He's averaging 17 yards a catch, but rarely catches the ball. Of those 16 catches, six have gone for 20+ yards and two of those have been 40+, both touchdowns. However, he hasn't caught a pass that has gone for 20+ yards in a month and a half. Just... just, weird. I mean, you can't not cover him, but I'd be interested in seeing what would happen if you didn't for the purposes of science. And my one fantasy team.
9. Jackson is another strange case. He's huge (6'5", 240), he's fast, and he's in an offense that would take advantage of a huge, fast guy, but he never put it together his first two seasons. He seems to be putting it together now (35 catches, 621 yards, four touchdowns), but you can never be sure. He's made Chris Chambers look like Art-freaking-Monk since he came into the league, so maybe this is the game where he has seven drops and Norv Turner's head explodes. Maybe this is the game where he catches 12 balls for 242 yards and three touchdowns and Fernando Bryant's head explodes.
   
10. Oh, that's right! We signed some dude named Fernando Bryant this week. He'll probably be playing for Deshea, who was playing for Bryant McFadden. William Gay could squeeze his way in there, but the fact remains that our top three corners will be, in order: ball bitch Ike Taylor, some dude named Gay, and some dude we just signed. So... maybe their receivers are going to have a good game.
11. Well, except for the fact that I'm still not sold on Philip Rivers. Okay. Take out the 65-yard touchdown from last week and Peyton Manning -- 6'5", 230 pound quarterback with a laser-rocket arm and way better receivers -- was 21 of 39 with 175 yards. That's 4.48 yards per attempt. Peyton Manning. Laser-rocket arm. We still have a defense that will stop teams that just want to throw deep. Rivers and the Chargers just want to throw deep. So... Tomlinson doesn't kill us, Rivers doesn't kill us, it's gotta be their defense, right?
12. Look. (Thank you, President-elect Obama! I needed something to make people listen!) No, seriously. Look. Their defense has allowed 200 first downs. 200! They've allowed 214 points. I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that they have played Oakland, Kansas City, Miami, and Buffalo. Okay, they also played New Orleans and Denver, but still. They only have 18 sacks. They only have six interceptions.
13. On the subject of pass defense, they're dead last in the NFL. They give up an average of 265 yards per game. They've given up 17 touchdown passes. They played the Raiders, okay. The Raiders managed 208 yards combined against Atlanta and Carolina, but put up 277 yards through the air against the Chargers.
14. The defense was so bad that they fired Ted Cottrell a couple of weeks ago and promoted Ron Rivera. But, Cottrell was a blitz-happy guy and Rivera is a Cover 2 guy, so there's bound to be a transition. They still have Shaun Phillips, Luis Castillo, Igor Olshansky, and Casey Hampton clone Jamal Williams, but they're just not the same guys. They've lost their speed off the edge, they've lost their presence in the middle, and they have crappy safeties... which means that it's just the right time for Willie Parker to return from injury! I think he matches up against this defense very well and would have a big day -- a much bigger day than Mewelde Moore -- so I hope he starts.
15. But, I really hope that Ben Roethlisberger doesn't. I think that this is a crappy enough of a pass defense that Byron Leftwich can have a big game against them. Hell, JaMarcus Russell didn't do half bad and he's terrible. I'm not giving up on Roethlisberger and I'm not saying that this should be a permanent shift. I'm just saying that Leftwich is good enough for this week and Roethlisberger is tired enough that we should rest him. When he's hurt, when he's tired, when he's worn out, Roethlisberger gets this look on his face like it's Christmas Eve and he just heard that the last Elmo doll has been sold, even though he pre-ordered one. When he gets that look on his face, he's done. Sit him down. Tomlin's grandmother would be a better replacement because at least she knows her limitations. When Ben gets like that, he doesn't have the chops to do what he is accustomed to doing, but he doesn't realize it. So he forces the ball into coverage. He throws the ball short. He does dumb shit. In order for our quarterback, whoever he may be, to throw for 300 yards against this defense, all we need that guy to do is not do dumb shit. For that reason, I say start Leftwich.
16. Either way, I think Hines Ward and Matt Spaeth do well. I think Moore gets involved in the passing game. I think that, possibly, this is the game that we put it all together. And, possibly, Ben's not gonna be in there when it happens.

My current record for predictions for the season is 7-2, which is better than the 6-3 record that the Steelers actually have. So, I'm going to trust my instincts.

I think that this is not a close game. I think that the Chargers get exposed as frauds. I think that they take their first step into a very disgraceful 8-8 season that ends with the firing of Norv.

I think, though, that Tomlinson gets his numbers and Rivers doesn't end up looking that bad. So, start both of them on your fantasy teams.

Prediction:

Steelers 34, Chargers 13

16 Reasons the Colts Make Me Poop My Pants

I already did a bunch of stuff this week for a Colts site that I write for that talked about how the Colts can win the game.

So, I'm going to talk about how the Steelers can, will, and should.

1. Something's up with Peyton Manning. I've watched all their games this year and he just doesn't look right. He's got that weird, pissed off, anxious look on his face all the time and he just looks like he's going to go all Billy Dee Williams on us every time someone brings up his knee. "It's not my fault! They told me they fixed it! I trusted them! It's not my fault!"
2. Something's up with his passes, too. He's not in sync with his receivers and passes either are a couple seconds too early, a couple seconds too late, or they get their reads crosses and Manning throws inside when the receiver goes outside, or vice versa. It's strange to see and it's difficult to explain, but something ain't right there.
3. As Manning goes, so go the Colts. He's their whole offense. Now, given the fact that he's played absolutely out of his mind the past eight or so years and that, even when he's off his game, he's still in the top ten, it's not too bad. If he's off, the passing game's off. If the passing game's off, the running game's off, because they're not working with a lead and the defense can drop eight guys in the box. And, if we learned nothing else from the Denver game last year, it's that dropping eight guys into the box will stop anyone.
4. I'm not all that worried about the fact that LaMarr Woodley might not play. Lawrence Timmons plays about 15 snaps a game and he already has four sacks. The entire Kansas City defense has four sacks. Granted, the Chiefs suck, but it's still damned impressive that he's done what he's done, given his limited playing time. I think that, if he gets more playing time, he'll do just as well and you can go ahead and multiply whatever he'd do in 15 plays against the Colts by 3 or 4 and call that his stat line for the game.
5. I am not at all worried that Willie Parker is not going to play. (BTW, Willie Parker is not going to play, for those of you that hadn't heard. Update your Fantasy line-ups.) Not at all. Fast Willie dominates teams that have slow outside linebackers, crappy safeties, and cornerbacks that don't want to tackle. He struggles against teams that have fast outside linebackers, talented safeties, and physical cornerbacks. Now, since I'm not broken up about Fast Willie not being able to play, guess which side of the coin the Colts are on?
6. I'm not saying that I'm Mewelde Moore's BFF all of the sudden. I'm just saying that Moore is a better receiver than Willie and, really, he doesn't have any strengths. He doesn't have any weaknesses, either. He's three yards and a cloud of dust, or nine yards on a checkdown and, every now and again, he'll get you 20+ yards on either of those plays. He's not a boom or bust guy like Parker, he's not a power guy like Bettis. He's not fast enough to have to rely on it and he's not big enough to have to rely on it. All he can rely on is that he's perfectly average. And, against a boring defense like the one Indianapolis has, that's perfectly awesome.
7. DFS, Kemoeatu, and Hartwig are starting to come into their own. The Colts defensive tackles? They kinda suck, they're young, they're not quite sure what to do, and they don't have the confidence of having done it before, so they're not sure if they can. Since Moore is starting, we should run between the tackles and take what they give us. For the most part, I'm thinking 4 or 5 yards, but if Bob Sanders or Gary Brackett (those are the two really good guys on the inside for Indy) get caught in traffic, take a bad angle, or miss a tackle, Moore could get one of those 20+ plays.
8. Marvel Smith probably won't be available, which means Max Starks, my favorite mistake, will be at left tackle against Dwight Freeney. This would ordinarily spell disaster, but Dwight Freeny isn't Dwight Freeney anymore. He's just a little dude that's kinda fast, but not as fast as he thinks he is. Same goes for Robert Mathis, but Mathis is closer to actually being as fast as he thinks he is. It could be a problem, but not if...
9. Ben Roethlisberger does not start. He's been holding the ball too long. I know I praised him up and down the past few weeks, but he has been. It's been hurting the team. It's been hurting the offense. It's been hurting his shoulder. He's thinking too much and he's trying to do too much. He needs to take a breather, re-evaluate everything from a different perspective, and come back next week refreshed.
10. In spite of my many criticisms of Byron Leftwich, he does not suck so bad. He has a long-ass wind-up, but he gets rid of the ball in a shorter amount of time than Roethlisberger because he doesn't hold it as long. The faster the quarterback gets rid of the ball, the less time DFS, Willie Colon, and Starks need to spend holding their blocks. And, if Leftwich is in there, they'll give the ball to Moore... um, more... and there will be more checkdowns to the running backs and tight ends. We've become too obsessed as an offense about getting the ball deep. We need to take a step back from that as well and re-evaluate.
11. Joseph Addai's hamstring is still bothering him and Dominic Rhodes was never as great as his stats made him out to be. And his stats were never all that great. I don't see either of them putting up big numbers against our defense. If Clinton Portis and Brandon Jacobs didn't shred the defense -- and neither did Brian Westbrook -- then Addai, Rhodes, and the NFL's 32nd-ranked rush offense ain't gonna, either.
12. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley/Lawrence Timmons match up very well against the Colts tackles, Tony Ugoh and Ryan Diem. Diem and Ugoh can slow them down, though, and really make them work, which would give Manning enough time to get the ball to his receivers.
13. But, he's not on the same page as his receivers, so we might force a couple of turnovers just based off of that. I'm thinking that, since they're not going to be able to run the ball, they're just not going try. That means a lot of passes. That means a lot of chances to pick the ball off and sack Manning. But, it also means a lot of opportunities for the flip to switch for Manning where he suddenly says, "Holy shit! I remember how to kick ass! Let me go do that." I think it could literally happen at any time, so the fewer chances we give him, the better.
14. The Colts pass defense is very, very good. And, it's weird that it's as good as it is, because they've had a ton of injuries and they're playing with dudes that grabbed off the streets. And, they're not rushing the passer, since Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis aren't really Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis anymore and they don't blitz, so they only have ten sacks. Ten. Sacks. Then again, the Jets only had nine sacks coming into the the 11th game of the year against us last year and ended up sacking Ben six or eight times. At any rate, no Heath, the back-up quarterback in the game, and a passing attack that isn't anywhere near where it was last season, it all adds up to us not having a very good game throwing the ball. And, since the ceiling is pretty low for Moore as far as potential yards and touchdowns (should be about average), that means it's going to be a low scoring game.
15. The only way we blow them out is if we come out of the gate throwing the ball to Spaeth and Ward on the inside (over the linebackers and in front of the safeties, the soft spot in the Cover 2) or to Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes on the perimeter (15 yard out, the other soft spot). Moore needs to break a pretty big run early. We need our guys to get yards after the catch. I don't think that's going to happen, so it's going to be close.
16. The only way they blow us out is if they line up in the shotgun with three wide receivers and Dallas Clark. Spread us out, run the ball out of that spread formation, and get Casey Hampton off the field. They don't have anyone that can handle him on the inside, so the only way they can run between the tackles is to get him off the field. And, maybe Manning puts it all together, starts flinging the ball all over the field, and parties like it's 1999. Or, ya know, 2004. Don't think it's gonna happen, so it's going to be a close game.

Close games come down to defense and quarterbacks. We've got the better defense, they've got the better quarterback. So, that's a wash. That means there needs to be an X-Factor.

Fear not, I am going to the game. I am undefeated. We will TRIUMPH.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, Colts 17