Buccos Update: Memories of the Implosion

On February 11th, 2001, the City of Pittsburgh imploded Three Rivers Stadium.  Here's a video of what that looked like.

I'm not gonna lie, it was pretty awesome.  I watched that old, concrete shitheap crumble to pieces from high atop Mount Washington and cheered like crazy. On the way home, I remember thinking that, with a new stadium and a young team that they could build around recently-signed Jason Kendall, the Pirates might not suck forever.

I was young, I have difficulty thinking logically when it comes to the Pirates, and my brain was pretty well frozen after waiting a couple hours in sub-freezing weather for the detonators to fire.  That's also part of the Pirate Mystique, that they can give us hope when logic is trying desperately to pimp slap us back into reality. Baseball fans, in general, are optimistic by nature.  Maybe it's the fact that every new season starts in the spring, which makes us think about rebirth and new life.  Maybe it's the fact that the season is so long that anything can happen.  Maybe it's the fact that we're all suckers.  That's probably it, because I'm fully intending on wearing a Pirates shirt to work tomorrow.  I actually started this post two weeks ago, because I knew that the implosion was coming, but I waited until they officially clinched their 20th consecutive losing season to finish posting it, because I still believed that they'd somehow come through in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.

So, I'm going to pile on and hit everyone with some cold, hard logic and reality.  I think it will be good for all of us, especially me.

Andrew McCutchen isn't going to have another season like this one, though he may come close.  They wasted a perfectly good season from Cutch in the midst of finding different and interesting ways to lose and disappoint us.  I understand that Cutch's average has dropped about 50 points since July and that his home run stroke has essentially disappeared, but I don't see him doing much better than .330/.400/.560/.960 for the rest of his career.  They took his season and they crapped all over it.

AJ Burnett isn't going to have another season like this one.  Joel Hanrahan -- today's collapse notwithstanding -- and Jason Grilli, his second half issues notwithstanding, are not going to have another season like this one.

Starling Marte and Alex Presley and Brock Holt and Jody Mercer are the future.  But, they're flawed like the rest of the roster: They don't walk enough and they strike out too much, even Cutch.  Pedro Alvarez is basically Joaquin Phoenix's character from Signs.  Garrett Jones had a fine season, but he's also 31.

There are a number of promising pitching prospects, led by Gerrit Cole, but who's to say they won't fade in August and September like James McDonald?  The line-up can't help but improve without Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes dragging down the bottom of the order, but who's to say that they'll find two guys that are better for next season?  As it turns out, Ryan Ludwick and Adam LaRoche aren't bad players, they were just playing for a bad team.

That brings us to the recent statement from the Pirates that announced they will be retaining key members of the front office, like Neal Huntington, Kyle Stark, and Greg Smith, as well as manager Clint Hurdle.  An implosion of this magnitude would tend to dictate that heads should roll.  But, if I'm Bob Nutting, I have to ask myself a very important question.   Who's out there -- that would take the job, which is a very important question -- that's better?  I've always been of the opinion that you shouldn't fire a guy unless you have a better option in mind and that better option should bloody well be willing to take the job.

They could try to improve themselves with free agent additions -- even if Barmes, Barajas, LaRoche, Ludwick, and Derrick Lee show that those acquisitions don't usually work out -- but, as Slate pointed out in 2010, spending money only buys you so much.  It doesn't buy enough wins to make it worth it just for the sake of spending money.

The other option is to go the route of the Indians, Rays, and A's and build from the farm system.  But, the system is toxic and develops players that don't walk enough and strike out too much, with the possible exception of Neil Walker.  They could blow up the entire system on down to the receptionist that answers the phone for the single A affiliate West Virginia Power and replace them all with people say, "Thank you for calling the Pirates, what's your on-base percentage?"  But, that would require time and effort and they're entirely too busy cashing checks.

Everything stacks up to years of disappointment for fans and years of profitability for the Nuttings.  I'm still going to 6-10 games next season because I'm an idiot.  I enjoy watching Major League Baseball live and the city I live in doesn't offer any other options.  I love baseball and I can't let the Pirates go.  I wish I could teach them a lesson by boycotting them, but I can't.

The best, most realistic option is to give them my money, but not my heart.  I guess that'll have to do.

Pick Em Week 4

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Oooooooooooookay, so...look...Last week was whack.  Yes.  I said "whack."  Last week was so messed up, my vocabulary actually trailed back in time to a safer era in the early 90s.  I've never seen so many sports pages use the word "Bizarre." This situation caused the President to feel the need to take time away from important things to make a statement about it, and for the Romney camp to find a way to compare it to the Presidency.  I hate to make excuses, but...yeah - that's why our picks sucked.

Well, rumor has it that the real refs might be back on board by tomorrow night, so maybe this week will return to normal.




...and, by "normal," I mean that Forty's playing it safe, Keller is being strange (thanks for the excuse to edit a Bucs logo) and I'm pulling the Crazy Ivans.

Lock of the Week (Keller): Hated Ravens over Cleveland Browns (Baltimore will win, but not cover the 13 point spread) 23-14:   As I see it, there's no down side to this pick.  Either I'm right and I get two points or I'm wrong (like I usually am with my Lock of the Week) and the hated Ravens lose.  Also, Cleveland sucks and Baltimore does not.

I know this is a classic "letdown" game and that the hated Ravens will probably not have the energy available to put forth their best effort on four days rest... but, Cleveland sucks, Cleveland sucks, Cleveland sucks.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Hated Ravens over Cleveland Browns (Baltimore won't cover, but they'll get the W.) 21-14: I hate picking the Ravens, but I continue to find myself doing that.  Eh, they're playing the Browns and are on a roll.  I don't see myself picking the Browns at any point in the future, so that by default makes this a lock for me.  The Browns are the Pirates of football, and as long as Ray Lewis is walking upright, Ed Reed continues his deal with the devil to make his hands and the ball magnetic opposites, and someone on their team is mourning a dead brother, I'm gonna pick the Ravens.

Lock of the Week (Forty) Baltimore over Cleveland (Ravens tend to play to their competition, so take the under and Cleveland with the points.) 24-17: We were all terrible last week thanks to all the crazy upsets, overtime games and referee debacles. The no brainer I missed was picking the Browns over the Bills. The Bills aren't as good as they were originally predicted to be and had an eight game road losing streak. What I ignored was Cleveland's overall losing streak, depleted secondary, that the offense is led by green rookies and the chaos around the sale of the team.

The Browns showed in the Bengals game that they can spark offensively, but the veteran Ravens defense with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed should probably keep that in check easily. The Ravens are also more likely to be able to handle the quick turnaround time from Sunday to Thursday and the high pressure of a Thursday night game. There could be some let down after the big win Sunday night against the Patriots, but I think the game and rallying around Torrey Smith over the death of his brother has pulled them together as a team. A word the Browns have to look up in the dictionary to know the definition of. 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Raiders

Not a lot of good news, particularly after an ugly, frustrating loss like this one, but let's get the good news out of the way first:

1. Ben Roethlisberger played a fantastic game, only getting sacked once in 50 dropbacks, not throwing an interception, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, throwing four touchdown passes, and going 8-for-14 on third down.  I know the Raiders were thin in the secondary -- safety Michael Huff played the entire game at cornerback -- but this was still a very impressive effort by Roethlisberger, especially considering that the running game was non-existent.
2. I like the fact that they got Mike Wallace and Heath Miller prominently involved in the passing game.

Bad News:

1. The pass rush didn't generate nearly enough pressure and hasn't all season.  The only time they get sacks or generate pressure is either when LaMarr Woodley makes an exceptional individual effort or they rush six or more guys.  They don't have the talent in the secondary to cover receivers for more than three seconds.  Most teams don't.  I'd like to say this issue will be fixed when/if James Harrison comes back, but I don't think it will.  I know that Harrison -- or even Jason Worilds -- would be a big upgrade in terms of pass rush ability, but I don't know that upgrading one spot is going to be the silver bullet that fixes everything.
2. They went to prevent defense mode far too early, which is one reason they blew two ten point fourth quarter leads.
3. Rashard Mendenhall can't come back soon enough.  I think it's smart that the Steelers have been trying not to rush him back, but I also think they can't wait any longer.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer and Baron Batch aren't bad players, they're just not as explosive as Mendenhall.  They don't have the speed to get to the edge, so defenses can focus on clogging up the middle and waiting for Redman and Dwyer and Batch to run into them.  Since defenses don't need to worry about protecting the edge, it makes it easier for them to defend the run.  When it becomes easier to defend the run, they have to worry about it less and can focus on defending the pass.  All of this means that it's going to get harder and harder for Roethlisberger to keep having the season he's having.
4. Special teams hasn't been very special thus far this season and yesterday was another example.  Shaun Suisham had two line drive kickoffs that didn't make it to the end zone and Oakland returned both of them for a total of 87 yards.  Antonio Brown had a punt return for a touchdown called back. At that point in the game, it would have made the score 21-7 if it counted and would have probably sent the Raiders into a tailspin.  Instead, Dwyer fumbles, Oakland scores, and it's suddenly a ball game again.
5. Technically, they've "forced" two turnovers thus far this season, but they haven't actually forced any turnovers.  One turnover was the result of a muffed punt in the Jets game and the other was an interception by Ryan Clark that occurred after Denarius Moore slipped and fell down.  They've only committed three turnovers, which is good, but the defense isn't good enough -- or young enough -- to face drive after drive and not be expected to buckle.

There were a number of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest cause for concern is the fact that Oakland is hardly an offensive powerhouse and they scored 34 points and what was supposed to be a solid defense.  The Raiders scored 14 points against the Chargers in Week 1 and only 13 against the Dolphins in Week 2.  The Steelers have already allowed two opponents to score 30 or more points against them and we're only in Week 3.  They allowed 30 points in a game once in 2010 and once in 2011.

Their issues on defense go beyond just the pass rush, but getting guys healthy and finding ways to get more pressure on the quarterback is the best "quick fix" option that they have.  Hopefully Harrison, Mendenhall, and Polamalu will return after the bye and things will get closer to normal. 

But, I have a feeling that there really is no quick fix and that we could be in for a long season.  This isn't based just off the loss to the Raiders or the loss to the Broncos, even though both of those sucked.  It's based off the fact that they've been underwhelming thus far this season and I think things will get worse before they get better.

Old Rivalries Die Hard: Steelers at Raiders Preview

The trouble with a post like this is that I don't want to sound overconfident and have fate smack me in the face for my hubris.  This is definitely a game that the Steelers should win, but I have no idea whether or not they actually will win it, because there are a lot of factors in play.

First of all, the Oakland Raiders do not suck.  They sucked in 2006 and 2009 and the Steelers let them hang around in those games and ended up losing to a couple of the crappiest NFL teams of this century.  They were actually decent in 2010, finished with an 8-8 record, and came into Heinz Field that season with a respectable 5-4 record, but then the Steelers completely destroyed them 35-3.  So, now that they're actually a decent team this year -- not really a good team, but a decent team that has some talent -- does that mean the Steelers roll, or does that mean that they come into Oakland and lay a giant turd where the pitcher's mound should be?  I have no idea.

Second of all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Bay Area do not get along.  He threw four picks in that 2006 debacle, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  We all know how things worked out for him in San Francisco on Monday night last December (granted, he was playing on one leg).

Thirdly, I can't tell yet if this Steelers team is a solid squad that knows how to get the job done or if they're a week-to-week team that is inconsistent.  My guess is that they're a week-to-week team, because of three factors.

1. The defense doesn't get pressure on the quarterback and they don't force turnovers.  That means that they have to hope that the opposing team's quarterback implodes every week like Mark Sanchez did last week.  They got lucky with the horrible quarterbacks they played last season, but you can't count on bad quarterback play every week.  You need to take the ball away and you need to kill drives with sacks and explosive plays.
2. They don't run the ball well, but they're committed to the run.  That means a lot of 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 9 situations for Roethlisberger.  They've been great on third down thus far this season -- converting 19 of 34 through two games and 8 of 15 last week against the Jets -- but they're not going to be able to keep that pace up.  That ten minute drive in the fourth quarter against New York last week was awesome, but it's a three-and-out or a drive that stalls at midfield if Roethlisberger doesn't convert some key third downs.
3. Too many old guys and too many fragile guys on the offensive line.  I have a feeling that they're going to use at least 15 more combinations on the offensive line this season.  I have a feeling that the injuries to James Harrison and Troy are going to linger.  I have a feeling that they're not done putting guys on injured reserve.  The "next man up" played well in Week 2, but I don't think we can count on that kind of consistent performance from the back-ups all season.

I say all this because, after thinking about the Jets game last week, I don't think it was a dominant performance.  I don't think they beat up the Jets or even wore them down.  I think, like the Seahawks game last year, they just kind of leaned on the Jets until they fell over.  Once the lead got to ten points and the clock kept winding, you knew that Sanchez wasn't going to be able to pull the game out.  The rest was just details for the box score.

And, hey, there's nothing wrong with winning, but I'm just saying it's way too early to start thinking Super Bowl, or even playoffs.  At least that's how I feel this week.

That's why this is an important game, even though it's supposed to be a snooze fest that the Steelers should win easy. 

Above all else, they need to run the ball effectively.  They're not going to blow the Raiders off the ball -- I don't think that they're good enough up front to blow anyone off the ball, to say nothing of the fact that Oakland's front seven is pretty tough and athletic -- but they need to do better than the 2.6 yards per carry they're currently averaging.  One thing they can do to help that average right off the bat is to take toss plays and sweep plays out of the playbook until Rashard Mendenhall come back.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are solid backs, but they don't have to quickness you need to get to the edge.  Todd Haley needs to realize that and come to terms with the fact that this offense can't afford to lose eight yards a play on those runs simply because they're in the playbook.

If they can average four yards a carry, then they'll get themselves into third-and-managable situations.  Better yet, they may be able to avoid third down altogether, which would be a huge step up.  The fact that they've run 133 plays on offense and 34 of those of have been on third down is a bad sign.  By contrast, they opponents have run 106 plays and have faced 21 third downs.  Slow, plodding drives are good for killing the clock and playing keep-away, but they're really difficult to sustain and it tends to put the defense in a bad spot if they're expecting to get a breather and the offense goes three-and-out.

I think they should be able to cruise if they run the ball effectively and I think they will be able to run it effectively.  The Oakland secondary is banged up, which should help the third down conversion rate.  Carson Palmer is still a serviceable quarterback and he has no love for the Steelers, but he's no longer a guy that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.  Their receivers are big and fast, but they have trouble separating from defenders.  If Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis play tight and physical like they did against the Jets receivers in last week's game, they should be fine.

Darren McFadden scares the hell out of me.  But, he only has 54 yards on 26 carries this season and has been far more dangerous as a receiver.  I'm not saying he won't break out in this game and basically take it over, but I don't think it's very likely.  I think Lawrence Timmons can handle him in coverage coming out of the backfield and I think the rest of the front seven will be able to stay in their gaps and keep him bottled up in the running game.

If they can run effectively, contain McFadden, and Roethlisberger doesn't throw four interceptions, this is a very winnable game.  And I think they will win.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Raiders 10

Pick Em Week 3

(To see Pick 'Em standings -- week-by-week and year to date, click here.)

Okay, I'm just going to get this out of the way early.  I have to pull it out at least once a season, and it's rearing its head early this year.

Seriously, how does New England lose at home to the Cardinals?  How?  (And, yes, I lost my fantasy game as well.)

But, this was hardly the only upset this week.  Dallas losing to Seattle?  Yep, that was one.  If you knew how many times I put the bird head into the pick chart and took it back out again, you might understand how pissed I was about that.  But, we're not going to dwell on those things - onwards and upwards.  I'm down one point in the standings, and it's still anyone's game.  You'll also see that Forty is going to continue with the crazy.



First thing to notice is that we can't agree on birds this week, except for the most hated of all birds.  Once again, we all took the Ravens.  Last week, they were the dogs to an arguably worse team than the Pats, and we all took them.  Not sure what to make of that.

Also, we all had our own crazy pick of the week.  I picked the Titans, Keller went it alone with the Chargers and Forty doubled-down with the Cards and Browns.  Well, crazy worked for him last week.

Lock of the Week (Keller): Chicago over St. Louis (Bears favored by only 7.5, take that in a heartbeat): My Locks of the Week are pretty well cursed, but I can't get past the fact that the Bears are talented, pissed off that they lost to the division-rival Packers, and working on ten days rest.  Jay Cutler pretty much assassinated any chance they had at winning in Week 2, but the Rams are not the Packers.  I don't think they force four turnovers and I don't think Cutler and the Chicago offense implode on Sunday.  I also think St. Louis kinda sucks choade, even if they hung on to beat the Redskins last week.  The Bears are too strong and too motivated and I think they roll.

Having said that, my locks of the week suck, so maybe go with someone else's lock.  Or pick teams out of a hat.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): KC Chiefs at NOLA (Spread is 9, take it, 53 total, take the under.) 21-14
I'm not going to advise picking out of a hat like Keller.  Instead, go with a sure thing like the fact that I haven't yet edited a logo for the Chiefs to go in the grid above.  (I figured the Browns would be the last one I do, but Forty had to go and screw that up.)

Seriously though, why am I picking a "lock" game between two 0-2 teams?  Because the Saints are better than that record and the Chiefs aren't.  Romeo Crennel is re-creating the Browns out there in KC, and NOLA is looking to regain their sea legs.  They faced some maverick offenses the first two weeks, and KC is about as straight-forward as they come.

Lock of the Week (Forty): San Francisco over Minnesota (spread is 7.5, take it, over under is 43, go over) 28-17 The San Francisco 49ers in last week's big Sunday night game proved that last year wasn't a fluke and their offense was competent enough to go with the best defense in the NFL. Kendall Hunter and Mario Manningham proved to be secret weapons as both chipped in more than 40 all purpose yards each. Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis were the stars, as they should be, and even Michael Crabtree is starting to show some promise. The most important element the 49er's displayed last week is that they are a team on a mission. They just don't want to win this year, they want to dominate and go to the Super Bowl. The Vikings are coming off of a tough loss to the Colts. Christian Ponder played well, but Adrian Peterson is still suspect and the running game will be needed to take pressure off Ponder against the strong San Fran defense. The Minnesota defense isn't much in the takeaway department, which plays well into the conservative 49er's offense being able to control the ball as they wish.


Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Get Sanchez: Jets at Steelers Preview

I have to admit that I only saw five plays of last week's game against the Broncos.  Interestingly enough, I was in Colorado at my brother in-law's wedding.

I got to look at this instead of Peyton Manning, which I think is a fair trade.

As a result, I wasn't able to witness them falling apart in the fourth quarter, though I somehow caught Demarius Thomas' 70 yard catch-and-run for a touchdown, which I took as a bad sign.  I've seen highlights and read some analysis and I have to say I'm not sure why a lot of people are freaking out.  I mean, I know why they're freaking out, it's because the Steelers lost and lost by meltdown and that's not something that people are accustomed to seeing from the Steelers.  But... I don't think the freakouts are warranted.

I tried to get everyone to calm down after the hated Ravens curb-stomped the Steelers in the opener last year.  My point was that it was only one game and the NFL would only give them one loss, no matter how poorly they played.  From what I can tell, the offense and defense performed pretty well for the first three quarters and kept Manning mostly in check.  They didn't get destroyed for four quarters like they did in Baltimore to open the 2011 season.  As you may recall, the Steelers were 12-4 last year.  They don't get to face the craptastic line-up of inept quarterbacks this season that they benefited from last season, but I think it is not yet time to panic and that there's a very solid chance they finish 10-6 or 9-7.


But, this is a Preview post for the Jets game, so I'm going to move on.

Three big items in this game:

1. Word came out today that Darelle Revis is out for this game.  That's huge.  If Revis Island is vacant, then Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will all have better match-ups.
2. They get Ryan Clark back.  Even though Troy and James Harrison are probably out, I think adding Clark back in is a net win.  Harrison didn't play last week, either, and Troy freelanced a little too much (from what I heard and it also looked like he took himself out of the play on the Thomas touchdown).  With Clark back in there and Ryan Mundy playing things by the book, they should be fine in the secondary.  It'd just be nice if they could generate some kind of pass rush and force Sanchez into making some mistakes.
3. Read this this morning: "Pittsburgh hasn't started a season 0-2 since 2002, though that didn't stop the Steelers from finishing 10-5-1 and making it to the divisional round of the playoffs. The Steelers haven't even lost consecutive games since a five-game slide in 2009."  That's some serious consistency right there.  I have a feeling the veteran guys on this team will be extra focused on Sunday to make sure that continues.  With two teams as close talent-wise as the Jets and Steelers, that little bit of extra focus is going to help a lot.

I think the Jets offense isn't as good as the Bills made them look in Week 1 and the Steelers defense isn't as bad as Manning made them look, either.  Manning is a better quarterback than Sanchez and he also has more talent around him at the skill positions.  The Jets are almost as thin at tackle as the Steelers and I have a feeling that LaMarr Woodley "great performance against a bad player" games against Austin Howard.  Howard plays right tackle for the Jets.  I had to look it up, too.  It's OK, you shouldn't feel bad.  Howard's not that good, that's why you don't know who he is.

I don't think New York has enough push in the running game to bully a surprisingly deep Steeler defensive line.  Shonn Greene doesn't scare me and neither do any of the guys up front for the Jets.

On offense, I have to say the Jets defense doesn't scare me as much without Revis.  Without him to shut down half the field in the passing game, the opposing team's offense has a lot more options and a lot more ways to attack a pretty average group of re-tread defenders and roleplayers.  I'd also like to add that Bryant Thomas is out for this game, which decreases the odds that Ben Roethlisberger will get sacked 15 times.  My cousin, Dustin Keller, is also scratched for this game, which will hurt a Jets offense that already doesn't have a lot of weapons.  Get well soon, Dustin.  Auntie Claudette sends her love.

I think the Steelers will have trouble running the ball, because they always have trouble running the ball.  It's kind of their thing, but at least they're persistent.  There should be some real opportunities for Roethlisberger, provided he's able to stay upright.  And, provided New York decides not to blitz too much.  According to ESPN blogger Jamison Hensley, Roethlisberger was 6 for 14 with 60 yards and an interception when the Broncos blitzed.  Hensley also points out that the Jets have blitzed on 43.4 percent of all snaps since 2009, most in league.  So, yeah, I think they're going to blitz.  It will just come down to how well the Steelers can pick those blitzes up and how badly the Jets defense breaks down on the back end without Revis if the Steelers do manage to pick up the blitz.

I know I've talked a lot about how both offenses are going to struggle and how they're going to have to do a lot of things right to score points, but I still feel like this is going to be a pretty high scoring game (take the over).  I think that there will be enough breakdowns in coverage when the defenses blitz a little too hard and enough turnovers that give the offense a short field that this won't be a 13-10 slugfest.  Plus which, those kinds of games are usually reserved for November or December.

I think the Steelers win, in a push (line is currently Steelers by 5), but take the over.  Also, these happen to be the numbers in my football pool this week, so I hope I'm predicting the right score.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Jets 23

Pick 'Em Week 2

(To see standings -- week-by-week and year-to-date, click here.)

Well, I was right about three things last week:

1. Some of my picks
2. The fact that week one, anything can happen
   
3. That I'd end up tied with one of those two yahoos.

As it turns out, our decision to include a "lock" pick could turn out to be a game-changer. Keller actually out-picked both Forty and I, but since he blew his lock he only holds a one point lead. That's fine - it's only one week. There were some shockers in the first week - Namely Dallas and Washington pulling off the upsets. Lucky for Keller, the "defending Super Bowl champion has won their first game of the season since, like, 1846." Wait, not lucky. The other thing. What was that called? Oh yeah - "Ha ha!"

Week two looks to have its own share of upsets, but more in our picks than what Vegas is predicting. For one thing, we all ended up picking the Ravens, even though Philly is favored. I don't think that's much of a stretch, but obviously the bookies feel differently. Also, Forty has learned that there comes a time in a man's life to either go big, or to pack up and go home.

He went big this week.

Keller and I stayed exactly the same in our picks, and our lock of the week is the same, so he and I will stay one pick apart this week - but Forty has a chance of either pulling way out ahead, or heading to the ATM to reserve that $50.

Lock of the Week (Keller): New England over Arizona, 38-10: We're doing the same thing this year that we did last year where we don't count the first week of the season, right? We're doing that, right? I got crushed in fantasy football, crushed in Pick Em, and crushed on my Lock of the Week last week. But... I'm totally coming back strong and I'm going to take out my failures on those that I feel have wronged me. I guess that means Weidman, Forty, and the universe at large. So... watch out.

Hey, so, here's why I'm taking the Patriots. It's Tom Brady at home in the regular season against a crappy team. That's pretty much a slam dunk right there. Tom Brady at home in the playoffs against a marginal team? Maybe not so much. But, these are the kind of games that Belichick and Brady dominate in the regular season, then everyone wonders what happens when they lose to teams that aren't pulled from Division I-AA once they coast through an easy regular season schedule and play a real team in the post season. I hate the Patriots and they can't win important games where they can't cheat, is what I'm saying. But just for this week, there's no easier pick to make.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): New England over Arizona, 35-10 (They will cover, and probably over might be a stretch. Play it safe and take the under.)

Okay, so here's the deal: Keller calls this a no-BS lock of Dallas/Giants proportions, so that concerns me. However, he's right: It's Pretty Boy at home during the regular season. It's also their home opener, and that's the kind of deal that Belichick brings out the formal hoodie for. Plus, it's the Arizona Cardinals. If it were the Arizona Rattlers, then there might be a chance, but I don't see their outdoor team marching into New England's back yard and winning.

But, even if we're all wrong, then we're all wrong and the points are a wash - and besides, I won both my fantasy leagues this week, marking the first time in ever that I rocked out in week one (or, generally, any week), so I'm feeling good.

Difficulty: I have Brady on one team, which, as I've mentioned in the past, almost assures a meltdown.

Lock of the Week (Forty):New England over Arizona 41-10 (The spread is 14, so no problem there. The over/under is 48, so you might want to go with the under, but the Pats could cover on their own.)

The first week of the NFL season is always hard to predict and the second week isn't much better. Looking over the current slate of games, I only see one absolute lock of the week.

The New England Patriots in week one did two things they haven't done in a few years; dominate on defense and establish a solid running game. Stevan Ridley, who I championed as a fantasy football sleeper in several leagues, had 125 yards and a touchdown. The defense had two sacks, one fumble recovered for a touchdown, one interception and several passes deflected in only giving up 13 points. Not to mention that they still have, to paraphrase “The Blues Brothers,” a passing game powerful enough to turn goat piss into gasoline.

One might say, sure, but this was against the lowly Tennessee Titans who have a couple good receivers, but no one to get them the ball, a running game that isn't living up to potential and a defense that's mediocre at best. Who do the Pats play this week? The Arizona Cardinals who you can say the exact same things about. Throw in that it's a home game and you're looking at another blow out for the early favorites to make another Super Bowl.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

NFL Pick Em Standings: 2012

This year, we've expanded our world-famous NFL Pick Em challenge to three lofty competitors: Weidman, Forty, and Keller. Picks are straight up, not against the spread and the Lock of the Week (the pick each "expert" feels most confident in in a given week) is worth two points.

Keep checking back each week to see how we're doing!

Keller                               Correct Picks            Lock Bonus                   Total Score
Week 1                                     11                              0                                      11
Week 2                                      9                               0                                       9
Week 3                                      5                               1                                       6
Week 4                                     11                              1                                      12
Week 5                                     10                              1                                      11
Week 6                                      3                               1                                       4
Week 7                                     11                              1                                      12
Week 8                                      8                               1                                       9
Week 9                                     11                              1                                      12
Week 10                                   10                              1                                      11
Week 11                                   12                              1                                      13
Week 12                                    9                               1                                      10
Week 13                                    8                               1                                       9
Week 14                                    7                               1                                       8
Week 15                                   10                              1                                      11
Week 16                                   12                              1                                      13
Week 17                                   12                              1                                      13

Total Points YTD: 174

Weidman                         Correct Picks            Lock Bonus                   Total Score
Week 1                                      9                               1                                      10
Week 2                                      9                               0                                       9
Week 3                                      7                               0                                       7
Week 4                                     10                              1                                      11
Week 5                                      9                               1                                      10
Week 6                                      5                               1                                       6
Week 7                                     11                              1                                      12
Week 8                                     10                              1                                      11
Week 9                                     11                              1                                      12
Week 10                                    8                               0                                       8  
Week 11                                   12                              1                                      13
Week 12                                    8                               1                                       9 
Week 13                                    9                               1                                      10
Week 14                                    8                               1                                       9
Week 15                                   11                              0                                      11
Week 16                                   12                              1                                      13
Week 17                                   11                              1                                      12

Total Points YTD: 173

Forty                                 Correct Picks          Lock Bonus                    Total Score
Week 1                                      9                                1                                     10
Week 2                                     10                               0                                     10
Week 3                                      7                                1                                      7
Week 4                                     11                               1                                     12
Week 5                                      9                                1                                     10
Week 6                                      4                                1                                      5
Week 7                                     11                               1                                     12
Week 8                                     10                               1                                     11
Week 9                                     11                               1                                     12
Week 10                                    8                                1                                      9
Week 11                                   13                               1                                     14
Week 12                                   10                               1                                     11
Week 13                                    9                                1                                     10
Week 14                                    9                                1                                     10 
Week 15                                   11                               0                                     11 
Week 16                                   11                               1                                     12
Week 17                                   12                               1                                     13

Total Points YTD: 179

                                            Weidman                  Forty                                Keller
Total Points:                            173                        179                                    174

Welcome Back, Peyton: Steelers at Broncos Preview

I'm actually leaving my house in about an hour to fly to Denver, so I feel as though the Steelers will have a little extra home field advantage in this one.  I also feel as though that won't make any difference.

I can't get past the fact that these are, essentially, the same two teams that met in January.  Same venue, same home field advantage for the Broncos, pretty much the same everything.  But, the edge goes for Denver because they swapped out Football Jesus for one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game.  I am well aware of the fact that Peyton Manning is not the same quarterback he once was and that no one -- not even Peyton or his doctors -- can say for sure how his neck will react once he starts getting hit for real.  Assuming that Manning is about 80%, that makes him about 300% better than Tim Tebow, and that makes the Broncos a much better team than they were in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs.

So, that's one thing.  The other thing is that Ryan Clark will not be available for this game.  I think that his absence was a key contributor to the pass defense's collapse in January.  Yes, Dick LeBeau is really smart and really good at his job and will find ways to patch the holes Denver found in his scheme in the last game.  But, you can't overlook the fact that Ryan Mundy backs up Ryan Clark for a reason: It's not that Mundy is a bad player, he's just not as good as Ryan Clark.  I don't think that Clark is an all-star, but he does do an exceptional job of playing the "hero" and covering up for all Troy's freelancing.  Without him there to watch Troy's back, either Polamalu doesn't do as much freelancing or there's no one there to cover for him when he does.  Either way, it hurts the defense as a whole.

Finally, you have the mile-high effect.  These are highly trained athletes and most of them are in great physical condition.  The issue is that they're not in mile-high condition just yet and the Broncos have the advantage of having practiced and trained at a higher altitude all spring and summer.  Historically, Denver enjoys a home field advantage early in the season simply because they're used to the conditions and their opponents aren't.  I just have a feeling that Casey Hampton, for one, will be gassed midway through the second quarter, especially considering he didn't have training camp to play himself back into shape.  Since these are two teams that played a tight game that was decided in overtime eight months ago, every little edge that Broncos have is significant, and I feel that this is a big edge for them.

I don't think there's anything actually wrong with the Steelers on offense or defense, I just don't think that they're good enough to overcome everything they'll need to overcome to win this game.  I think that, overall, they'll have a good showing this season and finish between 9-7 and 11-5, depending on how they do against the hated Ravens.  Denver's defense is too good, they have just enough of an edge on offense with Clark on the sidelines, and they have the altitude on their side.

I think they also have the psychological edge in this game.  Sure, the Steelers are made that they got beat in such dramatic fashion last season and the defense will be fired up, trying to prove that the playoff collapse was a fluke.  But, the Broncos have a nationally televised prime time game, a shiny, new, big name quarterback to show off, and they're just as motivated to show that their playoff win wasn't a fluke as the Steelers are to prove that their loss was a fluke, if not more motivated.

Mike Wallace is going to be fine.  He's still fast enough and scary enough to keep defenses honest.  He doesn't need to know the offense to know how to run in a straight line.  He just needs to be there.  He occupies two guys and allows Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown and Heath Miller to draw single coverage and get better match-ups.  Roethlisberger may not look his way that often -- unless he sees single coverage -- but I think Wallace is more than capable of making some plays when Roethlisberger does call his number.  I also wouldn't be surprised if they got Wallace involved early by throwing him some quick slants and screen passes and seeing what he can do, as well as taking a shot with him deep even if it's not there.

What worries me is that the Broncos have an exceptional front seven and a solid defense overall.  They feel like they can pressure anyone and they will blitz with regularity.  The Steeler offensive line is still in flux and I'm not sure they're up to the task of blocking all these guys.  It could get ugly.

The x-factor for Denver is Manning.  If LaMarr Woodley decapitates him on the first series, the Broncos are sunk, at least for this game.  We also don't know how much arm strength he's been able to build back up after having basically no arm strength following the 2010 season.  He also hasn't taken a real hit in 18 months.  It'll be interesting to see how he reacts to the first one.

I know I've been all over Chris Rainey all pre-season, but he's the x-factor in this one.  Denver has a slight edge on offense and defense, so special teams needs to step it up.  Special teams is basically just Rainey now that Brown is no longer returning punts.  If he can get a big return -- not even necessarily a touchdown, just a long return that puts the Steelers in a position to score -- they can win this game.  Do I think he'll do that?  I have no idea, but I don't think it'll happen.

Ultimately, they don't have enough to win this one without a little luck and a little help.  It's not going to be a blowout, but I don't think they're going to pull this one out.

Prediction:
Broncos 20, Steelers 13

Pick'em 2012 Begins!

After a few weeks off, it's back to it for me. Once again, the NFL season is upon us and you know what that means: It's time for Steelers N At Pick'em, where each week Keller and I bring you our take on the upcoming slate of games for your office pools and any other uses to which you might wish to apply our wealth of knowledge and wisdom. While the friendly wager stays the same, there will be a few changes to the format this year.

For one thing, we'd like to welcome Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst. Last year, he seemed to think that he knew better than the two of us and, let's be honest, some weeks a dart-throwing monkey would have. I think that he brings some valuable qualities to our group, namely, the fact that he's from Ohio and went to Pitt, giving him a cultural upbringing in football, and the fact that he has a beard like the rest of us. Also, he's a Patriots fan, so we have something to look down on him for, and when we wear a hoodie, ours have sleeves.

So, welcome, Forty. We look forward to taking your money.

Next, instead of breaking down each and every game, we're going to streamline it into a combination of straight picks, one "lock" game each week, and some brief highlights to watch for. Picks are a straight 1 point for each correct, and our weekly locks are worth 2 points for the pick (Points and spread not included.) End of the season, winner takes all. We hope this works out just as well for everyone. If you want more input on a given game, feel free to leave comments below.

So, on to the picks.


Week 1 is difficult to get crazy on, and the picks bear this out. A lot of teams are big question marks going into the season, and you're never sure what to expect. As you will see, the picks pretty much break down along the lines of those nice, unbiased and objective folks in Nevada. When in doubt, this is generally a "safe" bet, so we will go with it.

What to watch for
Well, out of the gate, I can see that the best I can do is tie one of these other two yahoos. When I got crazy, it was the same kind of crazy as one or the other of them. That's fine, I've got a long season. Also of note is the fact that the Pats fan is the only one who took the Steelers in their opener. Steelers N At applauds his optimism, but I think this will turn out to be folly. Minus our top three draft picks already, we don't get to have Ryan Clark when we play in Denver. Furthermore, we have an untested offensive plan and we're playing a mile in the damn air.

Keller's Lock of the Week: New York Football Giants over Them Cowboys (take them to cover at 3.5 point favorites, but probably take the under). Score: 24-17. The defending Super Bowl champion has won their first game of the season since, like, 1846, or at least since the NFL decided that the season opener would be the defending champ at home in front of a fired up crowd that just saw a trophy ceremony. Also, Tony Romo in a high pressure game. If it’s close in the fourth quarter, he’ll find a way to fumble/intercept the 'Boys out of the game and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Bet your children’s children’s unborn children on this one. And take it to the bank. Or spend it on blow and strippers. Whichever.

Weidman's Lock of the Week: Eagles over the Browns (With points and the under.) Score: 24-14
I know - it's like picking gravity to win over a dropped rock, but a lock's a lock. I think the Eagles are going to win without trouble, but I don't think they're going to blow them out as it's just the Browns, and there's no need to make a statement against them.

Since I'm still in a period of adjustment, I'm going to give an Arena anecdote: Both teams had a high-profile AFL player trying out for them this season, and neither made the cut - and I think both cases say something different about the team. The Eagles had Tiger Jones, a phenomenal player from the Soul, but the fact is, he excelled in a weak division with a superstar QB, and the Eagles already have a winning system with depth at WR. Passing on him was a smart call, because they don't need him. On the other hand, the Brownies are perpetual jokes who need to change things up and try something new. Rod Windsor had 156 catches for 1,830 yards and 36 touchdowns last season, along with First Team All-Arena offense and a shiny new ring in a tough division. Passing on him is just the first dumb choice on the road to the Browns not accomplishing anything this season.

Forty's Lock of the Week, Chicago over Indianapolis (with the points, Chicago favored by 9.5) Score: 32-13
No luck for Andrew Luck in his regular season debut as he goes against one of the consistently best defenses in the NFL. Samson Satele replaces future hall of famer Jeff Saturday at center along with Mike McGlynn and Winston Justice being new to the offensive line. Brian Urlacher, even with a bad knee, and Lance Briggs should be able to walk through that line like an open door whenever they feel like. Luck should be able to throw a couple nice passes to his talented receivers, but he's too green to operate as fast as he needs to against the Bears D with the running game not being strong enough to take some pressure off him.

The Bears offense also showed signs of being solid last year before injuries to Matt Forte and Jay Cutler. Add in Brandon Marshall and you have what could be one of the most underrated offenses this year in the NFL. Look for them to establish that early here.


Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.