AFC North Predictions

Here's how it'll happen (or, at least, how I think it'll happen) last to first:

Cleveland Browns:

I really think they'll be a better team. I do. It's just that they don't have enough pieces in place at this point, they play a tougher schedule this year (since they have to play the NFC South and the AFC West), and everyone in the division either got better or stayed about the same. While the Browns got better this off-season, they were sooooooo much worse than everyone else in the division last year, they're unlikely to make a quantum leap in performance.

Maybe in two years. If Charlie Frye works out. And they can keep the team together without losing 30 people a season to IR. And Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow live up to their potential. And if they can possibly start playing decent defense. If it's not too much trouble.

You wanna know the worst part, though? They're still going to play us tough. The only easy games we've had against this incarnation of the Browns were the first game we ever played against them and the most recent one. All the ones inbetween have been way more competitive than they should have been. And don't get me started on the 2002 Wild Card game. Maybe they should've kept Kelly Holcomb...

Cincinnati Bengals:

I'm not saying that, just because they're in third place they'll have a lousy record. I think they'll be 8-8 or 9-7. I'm just not sold on their defense. And, once teams realize that the Bengals can't play defense, that they're soft up the middle, have a marginal front 7 and a secondary that got pretty lucky on a cosistent basis last year, it's all over.

You can consistently win 10 or 11 games a year with an awesome defense. For whatever reason, you can't consistently win 10 or 11 games a year with an awesome offense. I know what you're going to say. Look at the Colts, right? Well, their offense, at its height, had more playmakers and fewer criminals. And Peyton Manning is still better than Carson Palmer (even if they both have two healthy knees). Plus which, the Colts had a plan on defense: Play the Cover 2 and hang on for dear life. And try to stay out of the offense's way. Marvin Lewis has a defensive background and wants his team to have a dominant unit. However, they don't have the personnel and none of their guys seems to have 70 plays a game in them, even if they're not suspended for violating league/team policy/state laws regarding beer and sex acts.

Add to all of this the fact that Palmer's returning from knee surgery, this team probably isn't mature enough yet to accept and retain success gracefully, and there's no conceivable way they're going to "force" 3,913 turnovers like they did last year, and it becomes pretty easy to see them taking at least a three game slide.

Baltimore Ravens:

Just like I'm not saying the Bengals finishing third automatically guarantees a 6-10 season, I'm not saying that the Ravens finishing second guarantees them a 10-6 or 11-5 finish and a spot in the playoffs. They're just going to finish better than the Bengals, but not quite as good as the Steelers.

The defense has one more year. McNair will make the offense better. Jamal Lewis didn't have to rehab an ankle injury in prison this off-season. They still have Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, and Mark Clayton. If the offensive line is as crappy this year as it was last year, though, all bets are off.

Above and beyond everything I just listed, however, is that Brian Billick's back is against the wall. If he takes another dump on the field this year, he's gone. He and his offensive expertise will be sent packing. I would assume he doesn't want that. Therefore, he's going to coach his ass off all year (think Cowher after the 2003 season when the running backs sucked, the offensive line was injured and inefficient, and the defense wore itself out trying to bail out the quarterback, eerily similar, no?). Cowher responded with a 15-1 season in 2004 and went all the way to the AFC Championship game with a new QB and a revitalized running game. Billick doesn't have as much talent on either side of the ball as we had in 2004, but he can still pull a 10-6 or 9-7 season out of thin air and save his job.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

I'm not being a homer on this one. I really believe we're the best team in the division. Everyone else has a hole. While we're not exceptional at a lot of positions, we're two deep at most positions (RB, the secondary, the offensive and defensive lines, QB, WR). The only depth issue we have is at linebacker, where you have the starting four, James Harrison, and a bunch of guys who either weren't drafted or haven't distinguished themselves in any way.

On the whole, though, this is the least nervous I've been about an upcoming Steelers season ever. In fact, the only thing that makes me nervous is the fact that I'm not at all nervous.