Tuesday, August 22, 2006

AFC West Predictions

*****THIS JUST IN*****

Pittsburgh was just ranked as America's 8th drunkest city by Forbes Magazine. Cleveland came in 7th. It's on.

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Here's the AFC West, last to first:

Kansas City Chiefs:

It KILLS me to write this because I mortgaged my one Fantasy team on Larry Johnson. But, they're the worst team in the league. Seriously. With Art Shell in the Bay Area, you can't write the Raiders off. All that talent? All that potential? This many suspect defenses in this division? I'm not gonna do it.

They're getting too old on offense. Their star-studded offensive line is going down, one by one. They lost Al Saunders. They still don't have any receivers. Tony Gonzalez might actually have to block this year.

And they still can't play defense. Free agent additions and over-the-hill ex-stars won't save this defense. They've gotta start building through the draft. This is Year One of the great decline. Next comes the salary cap purging and starting over with a bunch of young guys. Don't kill the messenger.

Oakland Raiders:

I like Art Shell. But I don't like him that much. The Raiders are definitely the third best team in the division. They have lots and lots of talent. Loads of characters with bi-polar disorder that have HUGE athletic upside. They have too much talent, too many guys that could rock the world and change the game forever to finish 4-12 again. And they have Art Shell. He may only be good enough to get this team to 6 or 7 wins, but I just have a feeling that he'll make them play to their potential. Otherwise, he'll beat them up. Ever seen Art Shell? I don't want to be trapped in a room with him on his bad side. Ask Jerry Porter.

One other reason I think they're going to finish third: Intangibles. I think that Big Art is going to call Al Davis after every win and say, "Al. What's up? We won! Remember when you fired me ten years ago? Remember when everyone said I lost my mind when I hired some dude that owned a bed and breakfast to run my offense? Yeah. That was wild."

San Diego Chargers:

I don't trust Philip Rivers. I don't care how good he's looked in training camp in 7-on-7 drills against guys who can't hit him. I don't trust their secondary (even though no one except the Raiders has decent receivers). And, above all, I don't think you can build an entire offense around a tailback and a tight end. You need to have someone who strikes fear in the opposition at the flanker position.

All that having been said, I completely trust Marty Schottenheimer to take a team that has no business whatsoever winning ten games and coach them to nine victories.

They're not making the playoffs. They'll get blown out and Rivers will look terrible. But they will most assuredly finish second in this division.

Denver Broncos:

Reasons I love this team:
  1. Mike Shannahan
  2. Someone, I don't care if it's some dude in a wheelchair that won a raffle at the stadium, will rush for 1,000 yards for them this year.
  3. Jake Plummer has finally found the key to regular season success in this system. Or any system with a guaranteed running game for that matter.

Reasons why I don't like this team:

  1. Mike Shannahan (post John Elway)
  2. They can't really plug just anyone in at tailback and have them gain 1,000 yards every season can they? I mean, really?
  3. Jake Plummer

For the first three reasons, I love this team during the season. For the last three (and the fact that their defense has serious holes that are exposed in an unholy manner when faced with playoff competition and gameplanning) I don't like them in the post-season.

They'll win the division. They'll win 12 games. But, they'll take another early exit until Shannahan learns that he needs another Elway (as though someone like that exists) to take his system from regular season success to Super Bowl glory.

And Shannahan's no different than Cowher. Both can pretty much will, scheme, and motivate a team to the playoffs. Even a first round bye. But the players make the plays. And Plummer ain't Elway. He's not even (gasp) Trent Dilfer.

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