A Few More Super Bowl Thoughts

1. I have been able to think of little else the past week. In the past 24 hours, I said "Super Bowl" five times when I meant to say something else. Best example: Yesterday, I said to the wife, "I talked to Super Bowl and he said that we should keep forwarding the mail as we get it, but that there's no rush." I meant to say "Dad" instead of "Super Bowl."

2. I talked to my brother last night and he said that one of his keys to the game is pressuring Warner. I agree, but I think that everyone else in the playoffs has done it wrong. Warner is great against the blitz. In the regular season, Warner completed 64.4 percent of his passes against the blitz. He had 14 touchdown passes and was sacked only five times in blitzing situations. His quarterback rating against the blitz was 103.1.

Here's where I think we have an advantage: We don't blitz that much. Most of the time, we send only four or five guys, as opposed to the six or seven guys that the Eagles and Panthers regularly sent. Most of the time, the Eagles and Panthers played man coverage behind the blitz. Kurt Warner is incredibly accurate, so he torches man coverage. He doesn't have a weak arm, but he doesn't have a rocket arm, so fitting the ball into small windows against zone coverage is a challenge for him.

Also, he's not the best quarterback in the world at reading zones and often overlooks players that are sitting in zones. He's a "ready, fire, aim" kind of guy, kind of like Tommy Maddox. When he gets into a groove, he's pretty much unstoppable, but he can also be fooled into throwing a ball into triple coverage.

Remember 2003 and 2005, when teams figured out that all they needed to do was sit in zones five yards from the line of scrimmage and all a linebacker had to do to make Maddox think he was blitzing was take a step towards the line and yell, "SCHMITZ!"? And then they'd just drop into coverage and Tommy would throw it right to them? I'm sure we all remember the Rashean Mathis Game in 2005 when Maddox singlehandedly destroyed us against Jacksonville.

My point is that Warner can be forced into similar mistakes, but not quite as frequently and not quite as drastic.

The closest defense to ours that Warner and the Cardinals have faced this season is the Patriots. Those would be the same Patriots that killed Arizona 47-7. And Warner was benched early. According to Whisenhunt, that was because the Cardinals had already clinched their playoff seed and he didn't want Warner to get hurt... but he looked pretty bad.

Well, so, in order to stop Warner, you need to get pressure with four or five guys and play zone in the backend.

I think now is an appropriate time to mention that Dick Lebeau invented something called the zone blitz defense and that's the kind of defense the Steelers run. And have run for the past five seasons.

3. Warner's very, very good at holding onto the ball until the last possible instant before getting it out and hitting the receiver in stride. But, if we can confuse him long enough to waste a half second, then he'll think that last possible instant is a half second after where it actually is.

While he's trying to sense the pressure and waiting for his receiver to uncover, Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison will be taking turns knocking his dick into his watch pocket.

Warner's 37 years old and is a little shell shocked from his last couple of seasons with the Rams and his only season with the Giants. His only season with the Giants, he had nine starts and fumbled the ball 12 times. He makes Rashard Mendenhall look like Jerome Bettis when it's not first and goal from the 2 in the Divisional Round of the 2005 playoffs.

Pressure Warner early and he will turtle in the fourth quarter. If he doesn't fumble first. Then again... there's no room for a football in that shell... so...

4. Hines Ward just needs to be on the field. If he suits up and plays, one of two things happen: Either the Cardinals double him and he becomes a decoy or they ignore him and he makes them pay for it.

5. Limas Sweed and Nate Washington are unreliable, but Heath Miller is going to be a big factor in this game.

I think Sweed and/or Washington will get behind the coverage, but whether or not they actually catch the ball is a different story.

6. Arizona's offensive line has been helped tremendously by Russ Grimm and the fact that they've been together for the past two seasons, with the same starting five that whole time.

But, they're not great athletes. If they have to hold their blocks too long -- like they did in the 3rd quarter against Atlanta and the 3rd quarter against Philly -- Warner's in big trouble.

I think the defense will show a lot of different looks before the snap in order to confuse the offensive line and confuse Warner, so the fact that these guys are big and physical won't mean too much.

In point of fact, the offensive lines for the hated Ravens and the San Diego Chargers are bigger and more physical and you saw how well they did against our front seven, especially running the ball.

7. The more I think about it, the more the 2008 Steelers remind me of the 2004 Patriots.

• Faced a tough schedule during the regular season, fought through the games they needed to fight through, won the games they were supposed to win, finished as the #2 seed in the AFC despite the fact that they had a solid record.
• Not big on style points, not a lot of stars. Both teams had only three players voted to the Pro Bowl.
  
• Clutch quarterback that didn't post great stats.
• Lots of moving parts on offense and defense with no dominant lead rusher or receiver on offense and an emphasis on team and scheme on defense.
• Roster loaded with playoff and Super Bowlexperience and guys that had been with the team for quite some time.
• Played an up-and-coming team with a great defense, committment to the running game, and surprisingly mature rookie quarterback in the AFC Championship game and won in Heinz Field.
• Super Bowl opponent: Team that revolved around their quarterback, had one BIG target at wide receiver, lack of a running game, and an exotic defense that employed a bend-but-don't-break philosophy.
• Line: Favored by 7.
• Over/Under: 46.

Remember who won that Super Bowl? Remember how close it was? Thus far, the 2008 Steelers have followed the trajectory of that 2004 Patriots teams very closely.

Let's hope they take it the rest of the way.

Steelers vs. Cardinals Preview

Well, first of all, I think that Steelers West has earned the right to be called the Cardinals, or Arizona. At least for the rest of this season. If Seattle rebounds next year and the Cardinals suck balls, they're right back to Steelers West.

And, of course, if they manage to pull of the upset, then they're the Cardinals (or Arizona) forever.

But let's not talk about that.

I just covered how great the Steelers defense has been this year, but Arizona's offense has been quite good as well. They had three receivers with 1,000 yards this season (to put that in perspective, Hines Ward was our leading receiver by 200 yards and only had 1,043 yards for the season). Kurt Warner threw for almost 4,600 yards and had 30 touchdown passes.

In the playoffs, they've scored at least 30 points in every game they've played in and beat Carolina by 20 in Carolina. Edgerrin James is the leading rusher in the postseason and Larry Fitzgerald has 208 more receiving yards than the second place guy.

A defense that was much maligned during the regular season, giving up 56, 37, 35, and 47 points in various games thoughout the season. But, they've turned things around in the playoffs, forcing 12 turnovers and shutting down Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Brian Westbrook in consecutive weeks.

After allowing 110.2 yards rushing per game in the regular season, they've allowed on 232 yards rushing in three playoff games (77.3 per game), again against some of the best running backs in the league.

They allowed 26.6 points per game before the postseason, 20.7 points per game during the postseason.

Perhaps the biggest improvement, though, has been the fact that they're now running the ball effectively for the first time all season. They were dead last in the NFL in rushing yards (73.6 yards per game) and 31st in yards per attempt (3.5) during the 2008 season and they are averaging 111 yards per game in the playoffs.

Now, I'm not a big proponent of "all you need to do is get hot come playoff time," but Arizona does have some compelling statistics. On top of all the stats, they're playing tougher, they're playing smarter, and Kurt Warner is entering into one of those zones that he can enter into, kind of like Bullet Time, where everyone else is moving very, very slowly, but you're moving in real time. And, as we've seen firsthand, Ken Whisenhunt can also get into a hell of a zone as a play caller, so there's that on top of that.

Here are a few points about that, though:

1. Larry Fitzgerald is averaging 18.2 yards per catch and a touchdown every fourth time he catches the ball. Those numbers are not sustainable. Don't get me wrong, Fitzgerald is a fantastic player, it's just that no one can be that good for that many consecutive games with this much on the line. Think Steve Smith in the 2005 playoffs: He tore up New York, then destroyed Chicago, then ended up with five catches for 33 yards against the Seahawks. They blanketed him and never let him get a clean release off the line of scrimmage and he wasn't a factor.
   
2. The Cardinals are +9 in turnovers the last three games. Their defense has forced 12 turnovers. During the course of an entire 16 game season, they forced 30 turnovers and were even in turnover ratio. Continuing to force four turnovers a game and being +9 in turnover ratio are things that are not sustainable. Turnovers are forced to a degree, but there's also a lot of luck involved. Seventeen of the turnovers Arizona forced during the regular season were recovered fumbles. A lot of that is opportunity and how the ball bounces.
3. I bet you're wondering who led the league in turnovers forced... that would be the hated Ravens with 34, who forced one turnover in the AFC Championship game. A Chargers defense that forced 24 turnovers during the season forced zero in the Divisional round. So, something's gotta give.
   
4. Arizona is running the ball more, but they're not actually running the ball better. They averaged 3.5 yards per carry in the regular season and have averaged 3.3 yards per carry in the playoffs. The Steelers, on the other hand, have allowed 88 total yards rushing in the postseason and 2.4 yards per carry. During the regular season, they lead the league in average yards per carry, holding opponents to an average of 3.3 yards per carry. I don't see them running the ball on us. I just don't see it. Maybe, maybe if they come out in that big formation they used against Philly for about 50 percent of the snaps and we come out in dime... maybe. No one has run against us all year and I don't think this Cardinals team is going to be the one to break that streak.
5. They're still giving up 324 yards per game. That's a lot. That's actually more yards than the Steelers gave up in any individual game thus far this season. And, for all those that are wondering how many yards per game they gave up during the regular season when everyone thought they were the team's weakness... 331.
   
6. Kurt Warner has been on fire. I don't think that continues... at least not to the degree he's been on fire thus far this postseason. One reason is that Fitzgerald won't be getting him 150 yards per game. The other reason is the Steelers defense.

Since our pass defense has been so bad for so long, people don't realize how good they've been this season.

1. Jason Campbell hadn't thrown an interception all season before he faced the Steelers in Week 9. He threw two on Monday Night Football.
   
2. Matt Cassel came into his game against the Steelers having thrown for 400 yards in two consecutive games. And he was at home. And the weather was nice. He ended up with 4.3 yards per attempt, 169 yards, and two interceptions.
3. Tony Romo had 210 yards, but only one touchdown and three interceptions, one of which was returned for the game winning score.
4. Joe Flacco threw 15 interceptions in 19 games this season. Five of those were against the Steelers.
5. Philip Rivers had an amazing season. He actually had a better season in terms of touchdowns, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and passer rating than Kurt Warner. If he hadn't played the Steelers twice this season he'd have, including playoffs, a passer rating of 106. After playing the Steelers -- remember only two games out of 18 -- his passer rating dropped to 102. And, remember, a lot of those yards and one long touchdown went to Darren Sproles when the game was already well decided.
6. Okay, okay, Peyton Manning had a big game against our defense. But, he's the only quarterback to have a big game against us this year. I can't analyze that game too much, for obvious reasons, but I do know that Reggie Wayne caught a ball that bounced off the side of Ike Taylor's head and took it 65 yards for a touchdown, so the numbers are skewed by that.

I know they have great receivers. I know Steve Breaston would start for a lot of teams. But, we have four good to great cornerbacks: Ike Taylor is an alternate for the Pro Bowl, Bryant McFadden is a personal favorite of mine, Deshea Townsend has defied the odds and continues to be consistently good, and William Gay has risen above his name to be the best nickel cornerback in the league, holding opposing receivers to 3.3 yards per attempt (got this stat from Football Outsiders, so I'm going to assume they're right).

So, our defense should do well against their offense. At least their offense will not get a ton of yards against our defense. But, as we've discovered, through special teams and turnovers a team does not need to gain a lot of yards to score. More on this in a moment.

When I think about our offense versus their defense, one thing keeps jumping out at me.

Check out this quarterback's stats:

3,520 yards, 36 touchdown passes, only 13 interceptions, and a 96.9 passer rating.

Do you know who that is? That's the stats for the quarterbacks who have played the Cardinals this season. They gave up thirty-six touchdown passes this season. That's over two a game.

Hines Ward has said that he's playing, Heath Miller is starting to become a real threat, Santonio Holmes has been tearing it up the last six or seven games, and Nate Washington and Limas Sweed can't be as bad as they've been (right? Um... right?) Top that off with the fact that Ben Roethlisberger has been better than his stats (three bad games against the Colts, Giants, and Eagles crushed his season stats) and we should be able to move the ball on their defense.

Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and Rod Hood would be playing the Townsend and Gay positions on our defense. They're good, but they're not great. Rogers-Cromartie is playing well for a rookie, but not playing great for a rookie and barely playing good overall.

Adrian Wilson is a hell of a player, but I'd still rather have Polamalu.

I really think we can pass on this team. If we set up the run by passing, we'll be in really good shape. If we come out and try to "establish dominance" and "be physical" and "do the things that made us get off to a slow start in most games this season," then we'll get off to a slow start. If we come out swinging, I think we'll be in very good shape.

As far as their front seven is concerned, they have a bunch of interchangeable parts, which has given us trouble in the running game in the past (no one knows who to block) but not the passing game (no one knows who to block no matter what the formation). Karlos Dansby can play either end position and either outside linebacker position. Linebacker Chike Okaefor used to be an end. End Bert Berry has played linebacker.

So, all three of those guys can play four positions on the front seven. That means they can have a 4-3 front, a 3-4 front, a 2-5 front, or a 5-2 front. That's a lot of different formations. The hated Ravens use those multiple fronts on us all the time, the Jets used it on us in 2007, and the Patriots had used it on us successfully for almost a decade.

If they keep switching up formations, we won't be able to run the ball effectively and we'll probably give up on it unless we have a lead. The area where the Cardinals are vulnerable along the front seven (and especially along the defensive line) is in gap discipline. With Fast Willie, all it takes is for one guy to shoot the wrong gap, one guy to overcommit, or one guy to misread a play (and we run a lot of counters, which are easy to misread), and Fast Willie can hit for a big play.

I honestly don't think the running game is going to be a huge factor, but it's going to play a role. Fast Willie will probably finish with something like 24 carries for 88 yards, but he'll have a bunch of carries for 1 yard, 2 yards, 0 yards, -2 yards, and -1 yard, and one (or a couple) for big gains. Kinda like he did against the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL (which we won, btw).

I have a feeling that will be enough. But, if we don't get those big runs, we might not win.

If we throw the ball early (and late and, basically, a lot), our offense will do well against their defense.

Therefore, since I think our offense will do well against their defense and our defense will do well against their offense, I must think it's going to be a blowout, right?

Well, not exactly. Actually, not it at all, really.

So... I must be one of those people that thinks Whisenhunt's and Grimm's knowledge of our personnel will give Arizona's defense a huge advantage, right?

No, not really.

1. When Grimm left, Willie Colon was a rookie and not starting. Max Starks was the starting right tackle, not the left tackle. Chris Kemeauatu was a back-up and Alan Faneca was starting. Jeff Hartings was our center. DFS was... was he on the team? So, he knows the strengths and weaknesses of Starks... as a right tackle, not a left tackle. Basically he knows Jack and shit, and Jack left town.
2. Whisenhunt knows how Dick Lebeau's mind works, but Lebeau also knows how Whisenhunt's mind works. So that's a wash.
3. As far as Ben Roethlisberger is concerned, Whisenhunt knows that Roethlisberger doesn't respond well to being in a motorcycle accident and getting a concussion, coupled with having his coach quit on him early all in the same four month span. Raise your hand if you knew this, too. At the most, Whisenhunt knows what Roethlisberger doesn't like during the course of the game, but the entire league pretty much knows that at this point. The challenge is putting your players in a position to making those plays and making that happen to Roethlisberger, which is more up to them executing than you having "inside information."
   
4. Roethlisberger is a much different quarterback than he was two years ago, but he's also very similar. The thing is that you don't need any special advantage to know that he holds the ball too long, is sometimes in too much of a hurry to look off the safety, and he'll tend to take a lot of dumb chances if he's way behind in a game. Everyone that has watched film on Roethlisberger knows these things. My grandmother knows these things. So, everyone had better hope my Nana isn't on the Arizona sidelines giving Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast tips.

If Whisenhunt and Grimm don't have a special advantage, then it'll be easy as pie for the Steelers to win, right? Right?

Well, here's the thing.

Almost every Super Bowl champion since the beginning of the century has been able to play the "no respect" card. The hated Ravens could say no one respected their offense. The 2001 Pats... where do I start? The 2002 Bucs, no one respected their defense. The 2003 Pats, everyone thought 2001 was a fluke. We were a 6th seed. The 2006 Colts had, "No run defense and Peyton Manning is a choke artist." The 2007 Giants... where do I start?

The Cardinals have been getting some respect (note: I am now calling them the Cardinals) during this run, but they're still essentially disrespected. They're one of the worst franchises ever and they're touchdown underdogs to one of the greatest franchises in Super Bowl history.

They have nothing to lose, they'll come in loose, and they'll play hard. And we might not be ready for them.

They have too many intangibles on their side -- no one respects them, no one outside their locker room believed in them, they're underdogs, they're the Cardinals, they have a quarterback that's married to Gozer and is 139 years old, they're playing a great team with an amazing defense -- there are too many storylines that favor an upset.

If the Steelers win, we don't even have a good catch phrase. Sure, the beer companies came up with Six Pack, but that's pretty lame. If we win, the storyline will be, "Steelers Win. Again. Yay." If Arizona wins, I'm seeing shades of The Onion's moon landing headline.

My buddy Joel isn't nervous about this game at all. My buddy Keith thinks the Steelers will roll. My brother is cautiously optimistic. Laszlo thinks we shouldn't overlook them... but we won't. So he's not nervous.

Even people who are nervous -- me, Weidman, my buddy Dan -- are nervous because they're not nervous. For me, it's like before the AFC Championship game. What scared me was that I wasn't scared.

The match-ups favor us, experience favors us, the sports pundits favor us, and Vegas favors us. We should win.

I said earlier that 18.2 yards per catch for Fitzgerald and four turnovers per game for the defense were not sustainable. But, they maybe get one of those and make it close. If they get both, they win.

I think we come out rocky, have some turnovers, but turn it around after we survive the best shot they had in the first half. Come the second half, there's too much defense, too many running backs, and too much Roethlisberger.

Prediction:

Steelers 28, Cardinals 24

This Steelers Defense from an historical perspective

When I take a look back at the year that was for the Steelers, I am struck by the fact that this year's defense was very, very impressive in all facets of the game.

They narrowly missed being the first team in 17 years to lead the league in rushing defense, passing defense, and total defense.

They finished a full 24 yards per game ahead of the #2 defense in terms of total yardage (hated Ravens).

They finished 1.3 points per game ahead of the #2 hated Ravens in terms of points allowed per game. That translates to 21 points throughout the course of the season.

A lot of times, you can punch holes in an argument that suggests a defense is "great" or "among the best ever" by taking a closer look at the stats.

Sure, the 2008 Steelers didn't let up a lot of yards, but yards gained might have been down that season in general. Well, the #5 defense in terms of total yards allowed per game finished 55 yards per game behind the Steelers at 292. When the fifth-best defense in the NFL gives up 292 yards per game, yards aren't down for the year.

Maybe they faced some crappy competition. Well, you can either look at the fact that the Steelers faced a schedule where their opponents had a combined .525 winning percentage, or that this defense faced seven of the top 15 offenses in the league in 2008. Either one kind of invalidates that argument.

Maybe they didn't give up a lot of yards, but they gave up a lot of big plays. They gave up only 27 plays of 20 yards or more total throughout the season. That's less than two per game. The second place team in terms of only passing plays gave up 33 passing plays of 20 or more yards throughout the season (Bungles). That's right, the Bungles gave up six more passing plays of 20 or more yards throughout 2008 than the Steelers gave up total plays of 20 or more yards. Looking at plays that went 40+ yards, we gave up three all season. Three.

We got sacks, we forced turnovers, we made game changing plays on defense. We had the Defensive Player of the Year. Our only three Pro Bowl players were defensive players. Every week, a different guy steps up and makes a big play.

With apologies to the 90s Steeler defenses, this is the best Steeler defense that I have seen with my own eyes. I am not saying anything about the defenses from the 70s, since I didn't see them. This is just the best Steeler defense that I have seen.

The 94 defense had a ton of sacks (55, compared to 51 for the 2008 version), but finished second in total defense and allowed more points per game (14.6). Plus which, they didn't make a big play when it counted in the AFC Championship game, a feather in the 2008 team's cap.

The 95 defense was third overall (285 yards per game, which is 48 more per game than this year's squad), and only had 42 sacks. They also finished 9th in points allowed, so that kind of eliminates them.

In 01, we finished first overall (258 yards per game), let up only 13.2 points per game, and had 55 sacks. Surprisingly, this is the defense from the last 20 years that challenges the 2008 defense the most. But, the thing everyone forgets about 2001 is that it was the year before the Texans joined the league and the divisions were re-aligned. We got to play 10 division games against the Browns (still pretty much an expansion team), the Bengals (still the Bungles), the Titans and Jaguars (getting older and starting into salary cap hell), and hated Ravens (breaking in a dude named Elvis as their quarterback). We went 7-3 in our division that year, but I always remember us going 10-0. Anyone that remembers that team, though, remembers that we had very little star power and that our secondary was anchored by Chad Scott. Yikes. Can't nominate them for Best Steelers Defense Since the 70s.

The 2004 team played a weak schedule and finished first in overall defense (258 yards per game) and first in points (15.8). Well, that points number kinda tells you everything you need to know about the 2004 Steelers, as they let up 32 points more than the 2008 Steelers throughout the course of a 16 game season. They also allowed 41 points in the AFC Championship game. Let's move on.

Actually, the 2007 defense finished first overall as well. They let up 266 yards per game, though, and finished third against the rush, third against the pass, and second in points. The fact that they didn't finish #1 in any category and only registered 36 sacks disqualifies them.

That leaves your 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers! They have more playmakers at every level and, where the '94 team had a fading Greene and Lloyd, the '08 version has an emerging LaMarr Woodley and the Defensive Player of the Year in James Harrison. Polamalu is the modern day version of Rod Woodson, except he is at a position that takes advantage of his range and can't be avoided. The defensive line is stronger and the secondary is three deep at cornerback with Pro Bowl alternate Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, and the venerable Deshead Townsend.

Considering the fact that this is the best defense the Steelers have had in the last two decades -- and they've had some damn good defenses in that time -- it begs this question: Are they the best defense of the past two decades (and then some) overall?

Well, I think you need to consider three defenses in that conversation: The 1985 Bears, the 2000 Baltimore hated Ravens, and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A lot of people forget how good the 2002 Bucs defense was, but the numbers show that they're right up there with the Bears and hated Ravens.

The 85 Bears actually allowed 258 yards per game, so this year's Steelers defense has a leg up on them in that regard. But, they also only allowed 12.4 points per game and 82.4 yards rushing per game. The big thing is the points and the fact that they finished 15-1, shut out both of their opponents in the playoffs, and completely shit-smeared the Patriots in Super Bowl XX.

The 2000 hated Ravens set a record for fewest points allowed during a 16 game season and only let up 10.3 points per game. They also scored a lot on defense and went for the whole bend-don't-break philosophy, considering that they actually finished second in yards allowed per game to the Titans (and the Titans, in Baltimore's historic season, allowed 11.9 points per game and only 238.3 yards per game... which is still more yards per game than this year's defense allowed).

The 2002 Bucs finished 28 yards per game ahead of the #2-ranked Panthers, letting up 252 yards per game versus 290 yards per game for Carolina. They actually finished 5th in rushing defense, but first in passing defense by a wide margin, allowing 155.6 yards per game through the air (as opposed to 156.9 yards per game by the 2008 Steelers) and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 48.4 passer rating, while this year's Steelers held their opponents to a 63.4 passer rating.

Interestingly enough, the 2002 Bucs made it to the Super Bowl and faced an expolsive offensive team with a veteran quarterback, a talented receiving corps, and a lackluster running game. The game also featured a match-up of the "new regime" versus the "deposed regime." There are a lot of similarities between this Super Bowl and Super Bowl XXXVII. The good news is that Tampa won 48-21. The bad news is that Tampa also had the "deposed regmine" on their sidelines.

The big thing that the media (and the players) keep talking about is that the three non-Steeler defenses discussed here all won a championship. In order for the 2008 Steelers to be involved in the "Best Defenses of the Last 30 Years" conversation, they need to win it all.

A strong showing (and a win) against an extremely potent Steelers West offense will put them in the conversation.

Early Super Bowl Thoughts

A few things that jump out at me with, like, 35 days of hype and storylines left to go:

1. Did you know that Ken Whisenhunt, Russ Grimm, and Kevin Spencer used to coach for the Steelers? Yeah. Really. It happened. Wait, who the hell is Kevin Spencer? Special teams? Ah, screw him. Whisenhunt took himself out of the running for the top job after Cowher retired in March 2006 and Grimm -- according to one guy at one newspaper that wasn't sure about his source (since it wasn't, ya know, Russ Grimm) -- almost had the head job until the Rooneys pulled the rug out from under him and hired some young black guy no one had heard of. How dare they! Whisenhunt, Grimm, and that other guy want revenge! Well, actually, Whisenhunt was offered the Raiders job in 2006 and took the Cardinals job in 2007 before the Steelers had made up their minds. Grimm might have thought he was getting the job, but he now gets to live in Arizona and dropped 40 pounds. He's doing great. If anyone has a right to be pissed, it's Spencer. No one ever mentions him amidst all this revenge talk and the Steelers special teams have wicked sucked since he left.
2. The Cardinals finished the season at 9-7 and only outscored their opponents by one point for the year. Talk about wicked sucking. They must be pushovers. Well, since then, they beat the Falcons by six (wasn't that close), the Panthers by 20 IN CAROLINA and the Eagles by seven (lead 21-6 at halftime). Anyone that does all that deserves attention and respect.
3. Larry Fitzgerald is an absolutely tremendous receiver and the best in the NFL right now, but the Steelers (and Dick LeBeau) have an equally tremendous record of shutting down the other team's best guy and making them beat us with their second and third best guys. See also in big games in recent years: Moss, Randy, Berrian, Bernard, Alexander, Shaun.
4. I think the line is too high. It's at seven right now (opened at seven) and I have a feeling it'll get higher rather than lower. That line, at a neutral site, tells me that Vegas would lay 10 points if this game were played in Heinz Field. That's just too high.
5. I think the over/under is too low. It's 47. I thought it was insanely high when I first looked at it, but, the more I think about it, the more I think we're going to need to score 28 points to win. If seven points is too high of a line, then that makes it 28-23 or 28-24. Even 28-21. Add those up and there's your over.
6. Experience has been mentioned as being a big factor, but it's being mentioned as generally being a big factor, not specifically. I think that it is a big factor for a couple of reasons: The Arizona players being tight or overwhelmed will only make a significant difference in the first quarter and the last two minutes and there's a huge difference in terms of how recently and how much experience everyone has. If the Cardinals come out tight in the first quarter and make some mistakes and we capitalize, it's 14-3 or so and we've got them. We came out tight against the Seahawks because they were more experienced and prepared, but they didn't take advantage of it and we somehow closed the half with the lead. If Arizona does that to us (and we do it to ourselves, it's a two-way street), then they can win... unless it's close in the 4th quarter, where Roethlisberger's overall effectiveness in the two minute offense and our confidence and experience will be a huge factor. Hate to bring it up, but the 1995 team folded in the fourth quarter because they panicked and got sloppy. The 70s teams owned the fourth quarter, at least in the key moments (X and XIII), and particularly in IX and XIV. For IX and XIV, they were clearly the better team, talent won out in IX and experience advantage won out in XIV.
7. How recently and how much experience (sorry, needed a new numbered list): Kurt Warner is the only person on the offense with starting experience in a Super Bowl and that was in 2001. And that didn't end so well for him. Clark Haggans is the only guy on defense, but he's not a starter now. Of the other guys, my boy Brian St. Pierre and Sean Morrey have Super Bowl experience, but they weren't prominently involved. The only non-Steeler-non-Kurt-Warner player on the roster with Super Bowl experience is Rod Hood, but that was as a back-up with the Eagles in 2004. And, again, didn't end so well. Roethlisberger was a starter in Super Bowl XL (which the Steelers won, BTW) and had a crappy game. Actually, he had the worst passer rating of any Super Bowl winning quarterback. But, if you look at the games he's lost and the bad performances he's had, especially in the postseason, he tends to learn from his mistakes and apply what he has learned. Hines Ward is a Super Bowl MVP, Heath Miller and Nate Washington played in the big game as rookies, Willie Parker did okay for himself, Max Starks was involved, and there are guys on IR (Smith and Simmons) that were involved and can provide guidance to the offensive linemen that don't have Super Bowl experience. On defense, Farrior, Foote, Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, Polamalu, and Deshea Townsend were all starters and Brett Keisel was prominently involved. And we won. And that was just three years ago. If you look back at Super Bowl XLII, the Patriots had the advantage in the first quarter due to their edge in experience, they just didn't capitalize. The last 35 seconds were WAAAAAY more excited than they should have been and that was due to the fact that the inexperienced Giants defense underestimated how desperate a team can get with only 35 seconds left when there is no tomorrow and a championship on the line. Again, Brady missed Moss a couple times by only a few feet. If the Patriots had taken advantage there, they might have been 19-0 in 2007.
8. I'm glad that coach Tomlin is the only black coach in the Super Bowl. In 2006, I was disappointed that the first black coach to win a Super Bowl was going to win it by default -- both Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith qualified. While it was monumental and important, it's not like that black coach beat a white coach to win. I was happy that it happened period, don't get me wrong, but it's more significant if a black coach beats a white coach in the eyes of the old, stodgy dudes that make decisions about who works and who doesn't. If Doug Williams had beat Randall Cunningham (yes, I know they were in the same conference) to win the Super Bowl, then it wouldn't have been as signficant. He beat John Elway and won the MVP and that paved the way for guys like, well, Cunningham and Donovan McNabb and Byron Leftwich and Kordell and Michael Vick and Daunte Culpepper. That's not the greatest list ever, but the fact that a bunch of guys that would just get labelled "athletes" and have to play tailback or receiver got a chance to play the game's most important position is... important. Dungy retired, Crennell got fired, Herm Edwards got fired. If a black guy wins the Super Bowl -- especially head to head against the two white guys that didn't get the job he has -- it's going to make a big difference. And, I know, the most powerful person on the planet is a black man now. But the NFL moves a hell of a lot slower than the rest of the world. And, taking color out of it, it could also mean that more assistants get a shot at a head coaching job, which means that we stop recycling old guys that have been around forever. That's been the trend the last couple of year, but Mangini already got recycled and you can beat your sweet ass that McCarthy and Lane Kiffin will get recycled in the future.

That's all I have at the moment. More to come. I still have 11 days until kickoff, right?

Steelers vs. hated Ravens Review

Generally, I have to say that I thought it was a great game, I thought the defense stepped up (once again) and I thought that Ben Roethlisberger, though it wasn't always pretty and his stat line doesn't really show how well he did, had another clutch game.

The defense sacked Unibrow three times, after the announcers all stressed that he hadn't been sacked in his other two playoff games. They also intercepted him three times, after it was pointed out all pre-game that he hadn't turned the ball over. Aside from the fact that the hated Ravens have a pretty crappy offense, I didn't feel as though, at any point, they were coming back. Once we went up 10-0 (more on this in a moment), I felt the game was safely in hand. And, really, it was. They only had 175 yards of offense, and Flacco was 14 of 30 for 141 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. That's about as much as you can dominate a team.

If you look at Roethlisberger's stats in a vaccuum (16 for 33, 255 yards, one touchdown) they're not all that impressive. But, then you remember that the hated Ravens have a great defense, they hadn't allowed even a peformance this good thus far this postseason, and he ends up over 300 yards with three touchdowns if you count the TD pass the refs stole and the one that Limas Sweed dropped.

I usually don't single the refs out and, well, since we won, it's not like it really matters, but I have two main points about the officiating in this game:

1. Seahawks fans can now, officially, drink a tall, frosty can of STFU. Seriously. It's over. The dead horse has been beaten for almost three years, has been placed in a coffin, and the last nail has been driven in. The Steelers had two calls (a phantom pass interference call and a questionable spot by the officials) go against them and still won the game handily. Like it or not, right call or wrong call, Seattle couldn't overcome the calls that went against them in Super Bowl XL (which the Steelers won, BTW) and that's why they lost. The Steelers were able to overcome the calls that went against them on Sunday, wrong call or right call, and that's why they won. Same number of points in the hands of the refs, completely different results. So, crack that open and drink it down and please, kindly STFU.
   
2. I can take the pass interference call where Bryant McFadden got flagged for getting nailed in the head by Derrick Mason's shoulder. It's pass interference, it usually goes against the defense, and those are things that just tend to happen. I won't accept the Santonio Holmes touchdown that was called an incomplete pass until I get a proper explanation that makes sense. I have too many questions. What I've heard is that the ball came out of his hands when he hit the ground and that made it incomplete. In order for it to be complete, he needed to hang onto the ball. But, I thought someone established possession by getting two feet down and making a "football move," which Holmes did. Is this not the case? The Cliff Notes version that I heard/read was that it wasn't a catch because the defender made contact with him and the ball came out after he hit the ground. He took two steps, though, and, in football terms, got three or four feet in bounds with the ball in his control (not moving around and he wasn't bobbling it). So, how many steps would he need to take, exactly? Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the sequence of, "offensive player catches the ball, is contacted by the defender, hits the ground," something that happens on every play? If he had caught it at the 50, been contacted, then hit the ground and lost the ball at the 35, would that still be an incomplete pass? What if he caught it at the 10 and lost the ball in the end zone? Still incomplete? I realize those are two pretty big hypotheticals, but, hey, isn't that why we have the "two feet a football move" rule? So, all that aside, what happened with the challenges (which actually could've fixed the mess)? Did Harbaugh throw his flag out first and therefore got first dibs? Did Tomlin hear what Harbaugh was proposing and say, "That guy's a dumbass. I don't need to challenge anything now. Let him waste a timeout."? It seems to me that Tomlin was going to challenge the ruling that it wasn't a touchdown (which it also obviously was). If it's ruled a touchdown, then that means that Holmes crossed the plane before the ball hit the ground. Once the ball crosses the plane, then Holmes could've lit the ball on fire and handed it to a cheerleader and it wouldn't have mattered (though he would've gotten a penalty for Excessive Celebration). So, why didn't Tomlin challenge from there? I know that's possible. I'm not pinning this on the refs, I'm just wondering what the sequence of events was. At any rate, it was dumb.

I hate to say it, but the game pretty much speaks for itself. I was only annoyed by two things (other than the officiating):

1. Bruce Arians deciding to go shotgun and throw the ball two yards down the field (to Nate Washington, no less) on 3rd and 1 with the lead and a chance to wind the clock. You just got 9 yards on the previous two carries. You're starting to push the hated Ravens around a little and demoralize them a little. The clock is your best friend. You have a crappy punter and your most reliable receiver is on the sidelines. Why throw there? And, if you're going to "think outside the box" or "go for the throat" why go shotgun, then throw a two yard out to Washington? Why not line up in the I-Formation, play fake to Parker, and throw deep (even if it's to Washington or Sweed, who will probably drop the ball)? Why not take a page out of the 2004 Patriots playbook and run an endaround in that situation? With all the things you can do at midfield on 3rd and 1 with the clock as your best ally and a lead, why a two yard out to Nate Washington?
2. Sweed and Washington are not ready for prime time. And they're our only options if Ward can't go (or is hurt) or Holmes gets hurt. Our passing attack is significantly affected when Sweed or Washington have to go in there. Just something to get paranoid about.

One other main point:

I waited until today to post because I wanted to see if the league posted some kind of logical explanation about what happened on the Holmes TD. But, I also wanted to give the City of Pittsburgh a chance to attone for the fact that there was a serious lack of buzz leading up to the AFC Championship Game. We were one game from the Super Bowl and I was the only person in my office that wore Steelers gear on Friday. In an office of about 40 people, where you can come to work in sweats (loose dress code) and no one will say anything, that's very noteworthy.

Well, the City of Pittsburgh has not attoned. We're now going to the Super Bowl and no one's talking about it. There's still no buzz. It's almost like it's not worth mentioning. It's very, very, very strange.

I was at the bar on Friday and saw about 60 people come and go throughout the course of the night. Only eight of them were wearing Steelers gear. Friday before the game. One game away from the Super Bowl. Eight people wearing Steelers gear.

At some point, a bunch of guys in the corner played "Renegade" by Styx and pounded the table during the bass drum bits at the beginning. I asked them if they were Styx fans or Steelers fans to break the ice. Then I asked them why they weren't wearing their gear and why almost no one else was.

"I think it's because there's a quiet confidence among the fans," one guy said. "I think that's it. It's not that people don't care, because they do. The fans showed up against San Diego in a big way and they'll show up against Baltimore. I think they're confident because we've been there, done that, and no one feels the need to overcompensate. Last time, it was 20-some years since we won and 10 years since we went. This time, we won three years ago."

Fair enough. But... it's the Super Bowl. It's not like there are more steps. It's not like there's another playoff game this week. The Super Bowl is happening in two weeks and we are the AFC representative. We have a chance to maybe start another dynasty if we win this year and once in the next couple of years. We have a chance to be the first team to win six Super Bowls. We have a chance to bolster the Hall of Fame resumes of several key players by winning one this year (principally Hines Ward, who still would need some help, I think). If we win, we can start talking about this year's defense as one of the greatest of all time. Every other all-time defense, with the exception of the '76 Steelers (who kind of fall under the blanket of the Steel Curtain), has a title.

I think it breaks down to three key factors:

1. Everyone is kind of stunned and not sure how to react. If they support Tomlin on this, are they stabbing Cowher in the back? How did we get back again this quickly? Shit, I just bought a 50" plasma to commemorate the last trip to the Super Bowl. Do I have to buy another one?
2. Quiet confidence. We just won one. We can win another one, easy. We'll be back next year or in a couple of years, so it doesn't matter. Cowher (who still contacts guys from his teams) and the veterans will make sure this doesn't happen with the players, but there's no way to force the fans into thinking otherwise. Hey, trips to the Super Bowl and championships are damn rare things. They need to be savored, honored, and enjoyed.
3. We don't have a good catch phrase. I know that sounds completely ridiculous, but even people who didn't follow the Steelers, but still lived in Pittsburgh knew "One for the Thumb." And there were cool spinoffs like, "The Drive for Five." I was at the eye doctor today, it was all women there, and no one knew who we beat to win Super Bowl XL (we won that, BTW), but everyone knew that it was our fifth Super Bowl. It was one for the thumb.

To sound even more ridiculous, I really think #3 is the biggest thing.

All the die hard fans and the fringe fans and the guys that watch the games, but aren't fringe, diehard, or the equivalent to a bunch of women at an eye doctor's office, they'll all be psyched up in about a week. They have two weeks to get in proper game form, so I'm not worried about them.

I'm also not worried about traveling well and having 75 or 80 percent Steelers fans on hand for the game. The Cardinals fan base is weak, for one, and there are more than enough diehards with money to back it up that the Steelers will get those seats filled.

I'm worried that there won't be a buzz. That the ladies in the eye doctor's office won't be psyched up. That no one will jump on a bandwagon that was filled to capacity in the last few weeks of January in the first Sunday in February in 2006.

"Ah ha, Keller, you smarmy bastard," you say. "We don't want bandwagon fans anyway. So this is a good thing."

I don't want bandwagon fans during a close Week 4 game against Cincinnati, because they'll only say, "Ah, it's not the playoffs, who cares?" or, "What quarter is it?" or, "Are they here or in Cincinnati?" or, "They can't get the Bengals? The Steelers suck." or something similarly idiotic/inappropriate/obvious.

But now? I want all the bandwagon fans that will fit... and then some. Like I said previously, I believe in momentum, I believe in the power of positive thinking, I believe in karma, and you bet your ass I believe in Concern Rays. The more people that are behind this team, the better the chances.

And, really, in Week 4 against the Bengals, I'm not looking for any possible edge that I can find, any possible thing that can be done, or avenue that can be pursued, to help the Steelers win.

This is the Super Bowl, though. And, quiet confidence or no quiet confidence, I want to gain every advantage I can.

Steelers vs. Hated Ravens Preview

There has already been a lot written about this game and I have already written pretty extensively about the hated Ravens. The Steelers know them well, they know us well. They hate each other, they respect each other, and it's going to be a fight. We know this, they know this, at this point, some dude in a hut in Borneo knows this... provided he has an Internet connection.

Here's what we know about the hated Ravens:

1. Ray Lewis is a crazy person and still a pretty damn decent linebacker. He can still fire this defense up by shouting, jumping on a pile three seconds after the play is dead and still gettin credit for a tackle, and dancing.
2. Ed Reed is a dangerous, dangerous man. We can't let the ball end up in his hands, even if they decide to play him on offense. We can't fumble in his direction, he can't get an interception, nothing. If he touches the ball, he's going to score.
3. Derrick Mason is the only consistent target in the passing game. He's not fast, he's not flashy, he won't burn you for a 90-yard touchdown, but he'll make a great catch on third down, he'll move the chains, and he'll get open and make a play when everyone knows the ball is coming to him. He's kind of like Hines Ward without the blocking ability.
4. Willis McGahee has the ability to break a big play at any time. You just have to stay in front of him and hit him square. Le'Ron McClain has the best feet of any big man since Jerome Bettis but, like Bettis, if he doesn't have a hole to run through, he's not going to get much.
5. Joe Flacco is a cool customer and is having the best rookie season of any quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger. And, as much as Steeler fans may want to dispute it, he'll have had a better rookie season than Roethlisberger if he manages to win this game and go to the Super Bowl.

Here's the deal about Flacco:

1. Think of how protective a lioness is of her cubs. Now think of how protective the secret service is of the president. Multiply those two amounts and cube them and that's how protective the hated Ravens coaches are of Flacco. In the Tennessee game, they called running plays on 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 14, or pretty much any third down that wasn't easily manageable. They did that until they absolutely, postively couldn't afford to keep protecting him in those situations.
2. A lot of announcers and pundits like to criticize quarterbacks for being "game managers" as though they don't actually do anything. In my mind, a game manager is under more pressure than an all-star. Peyton Manning knows that, if he throws an incompletion on third and three, he'll walk back to the sidelines and his offensive coordinator will say, "That's cool. Here's the passing plays I have planned for first and ten when you go back out there. We could also throw on 2nd and 6 or 2nd and 2 if you like. We'll just keep throwing until you get it right. That's fine." Flacco only has to do his job when he must succeed or the drive fails. It's kind of like being a kicker, but for 10 or so drives per game.
3. Flacco succeeded just enough in these do-or-die situations -- when the coaches allowed him to be exposed to them -- that the hated Ravens won last Saturday. How efficient he is in those situations on Sunday will determine the course of the game.

Ben Roethlisberger is in a similar situation, but he needs to carry more of the load than Flacco, because he's a veteran. This will be Roethlisberger's third AFC Championship game in five seasons. That's pretty intense and impressive. Thus far, he's 1-1 and we need to break that tie. In the good direction, of course.

Roethlisberger understands what's at stake, he won't be overwhelmed by the speed of the game, and he'll be ready for the pressure from a fired up Baltimore defense. I don't think he's what's going to decide this game for the Steelers, but...

In order to win, the Steelers must:

1. Avoid Ed Reed and focus on Ray Lewis.
2. Stay with the running game, even when it's not working (it it won't). They need to stay balanced against a great defense like this. They need the running game to throw off of play action. They need the running game because Willie Parker is too much like Chris Johnson for it not to work eventually. Willie has had his struggles against the hated Ravens. In point of fact, he's never had a good game, he's always struggled. But, there's a breakout game for everyone. Here's hoping he gets it Sunday. Also, running the ball keeps it focused towards Lewis and away from Reed.
3. Score early. I'll be surprised if Flacco throws a pass on third and more than five in the entire first quarter. That means that we need to make those early drives count as they insulate him and try to bring him into the game slowly. If we can get up on them 14-0 or 10-0, we really can turn out the lights on this team, provided there isn't a defensive or special teams touchdown.
4. Don't give up a defensive or special teams touchdown. Be smart, be conservative, don't try to do too much. That's how they get you. They can smell desperation and they thrive on it.
5. Win the turnover battle. The teams are too evenly matched for us to lose the turnover battle and win. That simple.

Here's what I think will happen:

1. We'll go no huddle early and pass the ball on almost every down, with some runs to Mewelde Moore thrown in for flavor.
2. We'll stifle their offense early.
3. We'll get out to an early lead.
4. We'll only give up points in garbage time.
5. Willie Parker will get all his yards in the second and third quarters.
6. Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington will be big factors.
7. Looking back at the stat line later, it will be discovered that Todd Heap had a big game, but all his yardage, catches, and his touchdown will come after the game has been decided.
8. Mike Tomlin will have at least one retarded challenge.
9. Hines Ward and Heath Miller will not be big factors in the red zone -- smart money is on Willie, Gary Russell, and Matt Spaeth.
10. Roethlisberger will be high on attempts and touchdowns, but low on yards and interceptions.

So, that means we win, right?

Here's the thing:

1. We beat the hated Ravens by 3 points (in overtime) and 4 points, respectively.
2. The line is 5.
3. I mentioned that they hate us, right?

John Harbaugh doesn't need to prepare a speech to get these guys beyond crazy for kickoff. They're ready for us.

Well...

1. We still freakin' beat them. I am tired of all of this, "If you guys hadn't done the things that beat us, we would have won," talk. It's the worst cop out ever. They know we beat them twice already, we know we beat them twice already, and we have confidence that we can do it again, whereas they have hope that they can stop us from beating them. Big difference.
2. We don't control what the odds makers do. All we can control is kicking the shit out of them.
3. We hate them, too.

In all honesty, I've been over this and over this in my head and there's only two things that scare me.

1. It scares me that they don't scare me.
2. It's playoff time in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are one game away from the Super Bowl. And... there's no buzz. No radio stations playing the "Here We Go" song again and again, only a certain percentage of busses that have "Go Steelers" on their marquee. No people talking about it at the water cooler. I think everyone has become accustomed to the kind of success we have had the last two decades or so and it has spoiled the magic. I'm not saying the fans won't be up for the game, I'm just saying that it's a bad omen that people aren't more psyched up for this game.

Ultimately, I think it breaks down to this:

The hated Ravens of 2008 are the Steelers of 2004. They're a team with a great, veteran defense rallying around a quarterback that is mature beyond his years. They've had some luck. They've won some key games against big competition. But, in the end game, they're simply not ready for prime time.

The 2008 Steelers are the 2004 Patriots. Veteran leadership behind a solid defense that pressures the quarterback and doesn't give up the big play. Clutch quarterback with a knack for running the two minute offense. Just enough talent spread out throughout their receivers and running backs that you can't key on one guy. Tons of postseason experience (and success) and a coaching staff that has been there, done that.

As painful a memory as it might be, remember that the 2004 Patriots were victorious at Heinz Field in the AFC Championship game and the 2004 Steelers were not.

I think we get to Flacco and make him make mistakes. I think we make the right adjustments to be successful on offense and defense. I think we have enough mettle and ice in our veins to pull out the victory.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Hated Ravens 14

Steelers vs. Chargers Review

Here's what I expected:

1. Us to gain a ton of yards.
2. Us to score a lot of points.
3. Darren Sproles to struggle.
4. The game to be all about Philip Rivers.
5. To run my record to 11-1.
   

Here's what I didn't expect:

1. Us to be able to run the ball.
2. Willie Parker to friggin' go off and return to his 2005-2007 form.
3. For Rivers to throw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns... and still lose.
4. Antonio Gates to have a good game.
5. Vincent Jackson to play, nonetheless catch a touchdown.
6. To be right on the five things that I expected to happen.

I definitely didn't expect 35 points, either. And, really, you could say that it could've gotten a lot more out of hand if Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes didn't have some key drops and if we were actually able to punch it in on fourth and goal. But that'd just be sour grapes.

Here's the thing... by the time the game ended and we were victorious (Editor's Note: It was the first time I got to see an onside kick in NFL action live and in person), I knew that we were going to play the hated Ravens for the AFC title.

That left me with more questions than answers. Fortunately, that was Sunday at 8 p.m. Eastern and this is Wednesday at 12:38 a.m. Eastern, so I have some answers...

Q: The hated Ravens are vulnerable to one thing on defense and that is the deep pass. Are we going to be able to throw deep on these guys?

A: Well, that depends on whether or not we can pass block for Ben Roethlisberger against their blitz packages. I have this weird feeling that we aren't, but that it won't matter. I think Ben escapes pressure and hits a couple guys deep. The real question is whether or not those dudes can actually catch the ball when it comes.

Q: Is the running game back?

A: Yes, if we play the Chargers every week. But, here's the other thing: Fast Willie was in rare form (at least for 2008) on Sunday night. He ran inside-outside with authority, he gained the tough yards between the tackles, and he used his explosive jump cut to bounce to the outside when it was there. He reminded me of Chris Johnson, who did the same damn thing to the hated Ravens in the first half before he went down with an ankle injury. Before that happened, he had 11 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown. Extrapolate that to a full game and he would finish with about what Fast Willie finished with against San Diego. Not saying it's gonna happen, because Fast Willie has struggled against the hated Ravens throughout his career, but it definitely could.

Q: Can you beat a team three times in one year?

A: Uh... YEAH YOU CAN. Especially if you're the Steelers. We beat the Browns three times in '94 and '02. We beat the hated Ravens three times in '01. Sometimes, you just have a team's number. The '99 Jacksonville Jaguars went 14-3 for the season. They went 14-0 against the rest of the NFL (back when there were 10 division games, the Bengals sucked, we sucked, and Cleveland was in their first year back) and went 0-3 against the Tennesse Titans, who beat them in the AFC Championship game (the last conference championship between division foes) and advanced to the Super Bowl... where they lost by a foot and a half to the Rams. Let's move on.

Q: Can the Steelers win without me?

A: They're 11-1 with you and 120-84-1 without you. Odds are that they will win, but it could be close.

Thoughts From This Weekend's Action

Titans-Hated Ravens:

Well, I thought they were going to win and I thought it was going to be ugly, but I didn't think they were going to win that ugly. Holy crap.

I know they have a clutch defense and I know Joe Flacco can shoot lightning bolts from his arse and I know that I keep underestimating them and, like Butch from Pulp Fiction, that's how they're going to beat me, but I still think we're going to beat them. And pretty hard, too. Not like a rented, red-headed step-mule, but pretty hard.

Cardinals-Panthers:

I am officially afraid of Steelers West. If they continue this hot streak, I see shades of Super Bowl XL in them. And that's a bold statement. No one can get into a play calling zone like Ken Whisenhunt. If they beat the Eagles, look out.

Eagles-Giants:

Another ugly game. The Eagles did what they had to do and Eli was Eli, but I'm really not sold on them. I know they womped the shit out of us earlier this year and they beat Steelers West by 28 points on Thanksgiving night, but there's something about them I don't quite trust.

Maybe it's the fact that Donovan McNabb might throw up in his mouth guard. Maybe it's the fact that Brian Westbrook can't find any running lanes. Maybe it's the fact that their best receiver is a rookie that has a penchant for big plays, but also has a penchant for brain farts. Maybe it's that I still think that defense can be beat and beat huge.

Maybe it's that I hate the City of Brotherly Love and all the teams associated with it. Or, maybe it's that the Eagles single-handedly destroyed my big money playoff brackett and probably cost me $250.

Probably that last one. Which means they're gonna beat Steelers West and we'll have to play a 6th seed for the title. Crap.

Steelers-Chargers

This should probably be a separate post.

Steelers vs. Chargers Preview

I'm not going to do the "Poop My Pants" motif, because this is the playoffs and I'm gonna switch it up.

Plus which, I don't think I have 16 points, but we'll see.

Steelers Offense vs. Chargers Defense:

1. The last time we played these guys, we only scored 18 points (I am aware of what the official final score was and I don't care), but we gained 410 yards. We were 0-3 in goal-to-go situations and sucked balls in general when we got inside their 40. Nine of those points were scored by the defense. But, that was only Ron Rivera's third week on the job as defensive coordinator and he's come a long way since then. At that point, they were running mostly Cover 2 stuff and mixing in some blitzes every now and again. Rivera was blowing things up and slowly introducing new elements. It's been a process that has lasted about two months, but the Chargers defense showed on Saturday night that they have a full grasp of Rivera's system and can run pretty much whatever he needs them to run, including changing things up between the huddle and the snap in order to confuse the offense.
2. But, here's the thing: The ability to switch things up that fast really works best against Peyton Manning. Roethlisberger changes a few things before the snap every now and again -- mostly when they go no huddle -- but, for the most part, he still gets the play, reads it off his wristband, and goes to work. Where he does the most improvising is after the snap and there's not a whole hell of a lot the Chargers can do about that scheme-wise. They just need to stay disciplined.
3. San Diego finished 31st against the pass, 25th overall, and let up an average of 349.9 yards per game. For those of you keeping score at home, that's .9 yards per game more than they gained on offense and 112 yards more per game than the Steelers let up on defense. I know that they improved towards the end of the season, but that's a lot of yards. It's not like you can suddenly flip on the "unsuck" switch and be awesome in an instant.
   
4. Also, it's important to understand how many yards 410 yards is for the Steelers offense. They only gained 400 or more yards in total offense one other time this season and that was against the Jaguars (415). They didn't get 400 yards against the Patriots (33 points), Texans (38), Bengals (38 points and 27 points), or Cleveland (31). And, before you say, "Well they had a lot of sacks and turnovers in those games and scored a defensive touchdown in most of them." Well, the Steelers only had two sacks agains the Chargers in the regular season, but they forced three turnovers, scored a safety, and scored a touchdown. And ended up with 18 points.
5. So... what I'm saying, basically, is that we can move the ball on this defense.
6. They're not necessarily a pressure defense, since they had only 28 sacks this year and they're a different team without Shawne Merriman, but they did get four of those sacks against the Steelers. And they do get a lot of hits and knockdowns on quarterbacks, which isn't something huge like sacks, but certainly isn't a little thing.
7. I just have a feeling that we're not going to suck as much on their side of the field, we're going to be able to move the ball, and we can score points. Of course, they can score points, too, having finished second in the NFL (and #1 in the AFC) in scoring offense, with 27.4 points per game.

Steelers Defense vs. Chargers Offense:

1. LaDanian Tomlinson confirmed that he has a torn tendon in his groin. Tomlin said on Tuesday that he expects Tomlinson to play. I think Tomlin is more than a little crazy. I hope Tomlinson plays, I really do. Anyone out there ever try to walk with a sore groin? Now imagine trying to run with a torn one. And there are big, strong, fat, angry guys chasing you and trying to hurt you. If he plays, he's not going to be effective.
2. That means Darren Sproles, the mighty midget, is going to suit up and carry the load. And Michael Bennett is going to chip in, but he wasn't able to beat out Mewelde Moore for the starting job back in the day when they were both with Minnesota. Now, Mewelde Moore is a hell of a player, but he was also our third string running back when the season started. And the Vikings chose to release Bennett and keep Moore a couple years ago.
3. I like Sproles. I was hoping the Steelers would draft him when he came out of Kansas State. He's a great story, a fantastic athlete, and a guy that finishes runs really well for being 181 pounds. He's also a speed guy, an athlete, and a guy that needs to cut (and he cuts a lot, making moves on his moves) in order to be effective. The forecast for Sunday calls for snow. The forecast for Friday calls for snow. The forecast for Saturday calls for a shitload of snow. By Sunday evening, Heinz Field is going to be closer to green bean casserole than a professionally maintained grass surface. Sproles benefited from good weather and an even better surface last Saturday, but he won't get that on Sunday. Not by a long shot. I'd say he slips or misses a cut at least four times. And that's going to kill him, because you just don't get a lot of chances against this defense.
4. Antonio Gates has a high ankle sprain. Vincent Jackson got a DUI. Now, it's the playoffs, so he's probably not going to get suspended, but with Kaiser Goodell at the helm, anything could happen. These first four points don't paint a real pretty picture for the Chargers offense, to say nothing of the fact that they have to face the league's best defense.
5. The silver lining for them is Philip Rivers. He's a big game guy, he does well in the final two minutes, and the offensive players rally around him. With Tomlinson struggling this season, this became Rivers' team. He led the league in passer rating (105.5) and touchdown passes (34).
6. The big, puffy, angry, gray cloud is that Rivers had, by far, his worst game of the season against the Steelers in Week 11. He had a 44.4 passer rating. He didn't throw a touchdown pass and threw two interceptions. He fumbled on a sack, which led to a safety. And, with Rivers playing crappily, a team that scored 439 points on the season only scored 10 against the Steelers. If he doesn't have a big game, the Chargers offense doesn't have a big game. First and foremost, we need to stop Philip Rivers.

Special Teams:

1. We have pretty big advantages in the other two phases of the game, but we are completely outmatched here, except of course at kicker. If the game comes down to a field goal then we did something wrong. But, if it comes down to a field goal, I'll take Jeff Reed over Nate Kaeding (who's also injured) every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
2. But, I think I'd take Mike Scifries with two busted hamstrings over a fully healthy Bitch Merger. Point of interest: There is nothing wrong with either of Scifries' hammies and Merger probably isn't fully healed, either. That disparity is probably worth 15 yards of field position per set of possessions.
3. Sproles is significantly better than whoever we have on punts and kickoffs. That's worth another 10 yards per possession.
4. That means we maybe needed outgain them 410 yards to 218 yards again. Huh. How about that.

X-Factors:

1. I already wrote about the luck-mojo that the Chargers have going for them (the Kaiser Soze reference) in the Playoff Primer and that's a huge factor in their favor.
2. We've pulled off a lot of huge come-from-behind, lucky, improbable wins against good teams this year, so that's a huge factor in our favor.
3. As the underdog and the road team, they've got the whole "us against the world thing" going for them and we've got everything to lose. And Tomlin's 0-1 at home and they're 2-0 against us all time in the postseason. And that includes the 1994 AFC Championship game, where we were prohibitive favorites and they ended up beating us in Pittsburgh and going to the Super Bowl. I should stop talking about this.
4. But, we've got the biggest advantage of all going for us in Sunday's game. And that's that I'm going to be there. I have pretty crappy seats, but my 10-1 record and I will be there. With bells on. And pants. And thermal underwear.

I really thing that we match up too well against the Chargers to lose this game. I realize that I am in mortal danger of jinxing this game by saying that, but I really just don't see it.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Chargers 17

Playoff Primer

Editor's Note: I wrote half of this on Saturday, then never got around to writing the other half. So, it may seem a little disjointed and I'll fill in the gaps where I can. Also, I picked all four winners from Wild Card weekend, so it doesn't change my bracket at all.

We've come to the time of year when all the major movie studios release their Oscar-hopeful movies in the hopes that the Academy will forget that they pegged us with crap like Righteous Kill, Disaster Movie, and Good Luck Chuck all year.

I usually catch at least one, if not two, of these movies every year, but I'm struggling with which ones to see this year. There are a lot of movies with a lot of potential to be great, but there is some severe suckitude potential as well.

Doubt has an all-star cast and I loved the play, but the screen play was written by the guy who wrote the stage play and the film was directed by that same guy. I have this awful feeling that it's going to be 100 minutes of gripping performances, viewed from a wide angle lens, consisting mostly of three people in a room, sitting around and talking. There's a reason that Hollywood stopped adapting anything but musicals in about 1965. Plays are dialog driven, films are action driven. Sometimes you get A Few Good Men or 12 Angry Men (maybe they should change the name to Doubt Men), most of the time you get... well, take your pick of crappy, art-house play-to-movie flops. My (least) favorite is American Buffalo. (Editor's Note: Saw it
on Saturday and it's a quality film. It translated well. They did just enough to make you forget it was based on a play -- shooting more outdoor scenes, moving shots, just the right amount of close-ups and cuts -- and leaned on the script and the performances.)

Frost/Nixon is an entire movie that is based around an interview. Great cast, great concept, but it strikes me as having the possibility of being like a movie about a fluffer that gets a scene with Peter North at the end of the movie. I can just sense a feeling of, "I waited two hours for that? I need a Kleenex."

Milk sounds like it has a strong cast, I like Sean Penn, and it's a movie about someone overcoming a disability to achieve great things. (That joke was subtle and considerably funnier if you know what Milk is about. Go ahead and Google it. I'll wait... yeah, not as funny if you need an explanation.) But, there's a real possibility of them going over-the-top, beating you over
the head with a message, and Penn hamming it up too much in anticipation of his "I'd like to thank the Academy" moment.

The Reader has a naked Kate Winslet, but it also has a clothed Kate Winslet.

My point is this: All the playoff teams have the potential to win the Super Bowl, but they all have the potential to fall prey to mass suckitude. And, unlike a lot of other years, the team that ends up winning will probably not be the team with the fewest holes. It will be the team that covers up their weaknesses the best.

NFC:

Arizona Cardinals:

Everyone is down on these guys because they spent the past four weeks in the wood shed. Well, they deserve all the criticism they're getting for getting pasted in four of their last six games and only outscoring their opponents by one point over the course of the season, but the point is that
they're here, they have no fear, get used to it (bringing it back to Milk with that.)

They're the ultimate high-risk, high-reward team on both offense and defense. They could force six fumbles and return two of them for touchdowns, they could give up 250 yards rushing to Michael Turner and get embarrassed in their own stadium.

But, if they get hot, there's no other team in the league that has the potential to get hotter, especially on offense.

However, now that they have to travel to Carolina, they're screwed. ThePanthers have a great pass defense and have more going for them running the ball than the Falcons do. They also have Steve Smith and no one on Steelers West can cover him.

Carolina Panthers:

They have a great running game, a solid pass defense, and Steve Smith.

They also have Jake Delhomme (who had Tommy John surgery in the offseason), no receivers other than Steve Smith, and are one of those "great potential" teams that never seems to live up to their great potential.

Of course, they will still beat Steelers West.

Philadelphia Eagles:

I know they kicked the crap out of us and I know everyone wants to see a

Turnpike Super Bowl, but I gotta say I don't think it's going to happen.

Philly plays great pressure defense, Brian Westbrook is one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, and Asante Samuel is one of the mostdangerous defenders this side of Ed Reed. But... I just don't think they have enough.

They can't run the ball, they pass too much, they have Andy Reid as their head coach (7-0 in his first playoff game in a postseason, 2-6 in his second), and their front seven, while awesome, could wear down pretty easily throughout the course of a game. Particularly if they're playing a team that is physical and likes to run the ball like, oh, say, the Giants. Just because they haven't worn down very often thus far does not meant that they won't do it. And at the worst possible time.

If they were playing Steelers West this weekend, I'd give them more of a shot, but they're playing a good, balanced team that split the division serieswith them this year (so there's none of that, "It's tough to beat a team three times in a year," bunk).

New York Giants:

This is the football equivalent to Doubt. Ironically enough, I had thefewest doubts about Doubt since the Oscar orgy started, which is why I saw itfirst. And I was 95% sure I'd like it, but there was still that 5%.

The 5% against New York is a bunch of circumstantial stuff. Their defense hasn't looked super sharp the past few games. They had a week off, so they might be rusty. If you stop their running game, it's fairly easy to stop them, especially since their star receiver and tight end are out of the picture.

But, they still have a great defense, they still have three quality runningbacks, they still have the best offensive line in football, and they still havea very serviceable quarterback with postseason experience and as many Super Bowl rings as his brother.

They have the fewest holes and the most talent. And, while "getting hot at the right time" and superior game planning are extremely important in the playoffs, talent still wins out. They have also beat all three teams left in the bracket and are suddenly clutch behind Tom Coughlin.

Panthers beat Steelers West, Giants beat Eagles

Giants beat Panthers and advance to Super Bowl XLIII

AFC:

Hated Ravens:

Well, so, it's well established that I hate these guys, but I have to admit that they couldn't have drawn better match-ups if they tried. I think the Dolphins are a great story, but I actually deleted the breakdown I did of them and why they might be able to get to the Super Bowl when I wrote the second half of this article on Tuesday (also deleted a pretty good dick joke, but that's neither here nor there). The Dolphins are a 9-7 or 8-8 team that got lucky and won 11 games. Hey, it happens. We got unlucky in 2006 and only went 8-8 (and had to deal with Cowher's March 2006 retirement). We got unlucky in 2003, too, went 6-10 when we probably could have gone 10-6, drafted Ben, and the rest is history.

We had a better team in 2005 than in 2004, but the 2004 team finished with a better record by four full games because of scheduling and luck. Miami sucks, is my point. I was hoping and praying that they'd actually win on Sunday, but it was not to be.

Baltimore's a good team, maybe even a great team, and they're scary in a single-elimination situation because they keep the game close and they're just one Ed Reed interception return or kick return from breaking a game wide open.

On the other side of that, they're also waiting for a big play that may never happen. And, if it does happen, but doesn't demoralize the other team, then they lose their biggest weapon. They were up 13-3 at the end of the first half and I knew the game was over. That kind of certainty to desperation from the Dolphins and the hated Ravens thrive on that. Every blowout they were involved in this year had at least one of those plays.

The time they got blown out -- against the Colts -- they didn't even come close to getting one. And they didn't get one against us. We got two on them -- Woodley's scoop-and-score in the first game and Santonio's touchdown in the second -- and that was that.

They didn't get a big play on defense or special teams in the game against the Titans earlier this year and that was the difference in the game. Say they get one on Saturday. They could win that game. They're scary because they can beat anyone left in the bracket, but they're also not scary because anyone left in the bracket can beat them.

Beating the hated Ravens is very simple: Jump out to an early lead -- preferably with a big play on defense or special teams -- and make them throw the ball. Joe Flacco has done a hell of a job this year, but they haven't put the game completely on him yet. But, no one has been able to do that to them except the Colts this season, so it seems unlikely.

Tennessee Titans:

I'm going to stand by what I said in November. I don't trust their receivers, their quarterback is
a hundred years old and, if we play them again, we're not turning the ball over five times again and we're not letting up 128 sacks. They're good enough to win most games, but I don't think that they're quite dominant and you need to have a little of that if you're going to win the Super Bowl, to say nothing of actually getting there.

They have terrific running backs and a great defense, but they don't have that spark on special teams, that guy that can make a big play on a return or force a fumble in kick coverage. They haven't made a ton of big plays on defense. They haven't made a ton of big plays period. They lack thatone guy that makes you say, "Oh, shit. We definitely have toaccount for _________."

A lot of people will say Albert Haynesworth is that guy, but I don't think a defensive tackle is in a position to make enough game changing plays that you need to by conscious of where he is at all times.

Like you have to be with Troy. Or Roethlisberger. Or James Harrison. Or Ed Reed.

So, the lack of an "Oh shit" factor makes me think that the hated Ravens will beat them on Saturday.

San Diego Chargers:

It would be inaccurate to say that they looked good against the Colts.

It really would. I think they looked better than the Colts and made a couple more plays than Indy and that was the difference. Their pass defense, which was 31st in the league at the end of the season but Ron Rivera (remember him? I'm pretty sure the Steelers talked to him, gave Tomlin the job, then he ended up getting fired from Chicago and working as the linebackers
coach for San Diego before Ted Cottrell got fired and they promoted Rivera) went from hot head coach candidate to the dog house to defensive coordinator and then back to hot candidate again, all because he came in with a good game plan and shut down Peyton Manning on Saturday night. I still don't trust their defense. We gained 410 yards against them when we played them, we just didn't score.

However, since they have the league's second-highest scoring offense, they don't need much of a defense. Right?

Well, LaDanian Tomlinson is probably going to miss the game and star receiver Vincent Jackson just got busted for another DUI when he was already on probation. And Antonio Gates has a high ankle sprain, which is an injury that kept Kendrell Bell out of the line-up for most of the season. That leaves the offense in the hands of Philip Rivers -- who had his worst game of
the season against us -- and Chris Chambers, who was hurt most of the year and is unreliable at best.

Now, the Chargers managed some miracles the last couple of years in the playoffs on Norv Turner's play calling and by putting the game on the very small shoulders of Darren Sproles. Who do you like in this match-up: Dick LeBeau and a Steelers defense that was historically good during the regular season and finally healthy after the bye week? Or Norv Turner with a midget tailback, a hobbled former basketball star playing tight end, Chris Chambers and a dude that could enter Sunday either drunk or suspended (or both)?

Okay, I stacked the deck a little there, but you see what I mean.

All that having been said, this team is like Verbal Kint. It's protected from up on high by the prince of darkness. They finished 8-8, yet they won their division. I know they won five straight to get to this point, but Denver also had to pull of an epic choke job. The Colts gave the game away on Saturday night and the Chargers benefited from some questionable calls late in the game.

But, I'd also rather the Steelers play them than any other team in the bracket.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

We know the strengths and weaknesses at this point. Legendary defense, clutch quarterback, exceptional coaching staff, and a bunch of capable veterans mixed in with some young talent at all the key positions.

They can't protect the quarterback and they can't really run the ball, buteveryone has holes. If they come out no huddle -- not against the Chargers, but in a super-duper important game that they might lose if they don't do something wacky -- they can keep the defense off balance, move the ball, and not worry about having to run it. By the time the defense adjusts, get back to playing Steeler football and hope that you have a 14 point lead.

In 2005, we finally started thinking outside the box in terms of our game planning and it paid off. I think that the Steelers and the Giants are the only two teams remaining that truly understand the gravity of the situation. For that reason, coupled with all the stuff about the Giants being balanced and everything we bring to the table, the Steelers and Giants will be the two teams that make it to the Super Bowl.

Hated Ravens beat Titans, Steelers beat Chargers

Steelers beat hated Ravens

Steelers advance to Super Bowl XLIII

And... the Giants beat the Steelers in the Big Game. Sorry, but that's how I see it right now.

I also reserve the right to change this prediction if the Steelers actually make it to the Super Bowl. But there are some games to be played in the meantime.