Steelers vs. Hated Ravens Preview

There has already been a lot written about this game and I have already written pretty extensively about the hated Ravens. The Steelers know them well, they know us well. They hate each other, they respect each other, and it's going to be a fight. We know this, they know this, at this point, some dude in a hut in Borneo knows this... provided he has an Internet connection.

Here's what we know about the hated Ravens:

1. Ray Lewis is a crazy person and still a pretty damn decent linebacker. He can still fire this defense up by shouting, jumping on a pile three seconds after the play is dead and still gettin credit for a tackle, and dancing.
2. Ed Reed is a dangerous, dangerous man. We can't let the ball end up in his hands, even if they decide to play him on offense. We can't fumble in his direction, he can't get an interception, nothing. If he touches the ball, he's going to score.
3. Derrick Mason is the only consistent target in the passing game. He's not fast, he's not flashy, he won't burn you for a 90-yard touchdown, but he'll make a great catch on third down, he'll move the chains, and he'll get open and make a play when everyone knows the ball is coming to him. He's kind of like Hines Ward without the blocking ability.
4. Willis McGahee has the ability to break a big play at any time. You just have to stay in front of him and hit him square. Le'Ron McClain has the best feet of any big man since Jerome Bettis but, like Bettis, if he doesn't have a hole to run through, he's not going to get much.
5. Joe Flacco is a cool customer and is having the best rookie season of any quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger. And, as much as Steeler fans may want to dispute it, he'll have had a better rookie season than Roethlisberger if he manages to win this game and go to the Super Bowl.

Here's the deal about Flacco:

1. Think of how protective a lioness is of her cubs. Now think of how protective the secret service is of the president. Multiply those two amounts and cube them and that's how protective the hated Ravens coaches are of Flacco. In the Tennessee game, they called running plays on 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 14, or pretty much any third down that wasn't easily manageable. They did that until they absolutely, postively couldn't afford to keep protecting him in those situations.
2. A lot of announcers and pundits like to criticize quarterbacks for being "game managers" as though they don't actually do anything. In my mind, a game manager is under more pressure than an all-star. Peyton Manning knows that, if he throws an incompletion on third and three, he'll walk back to the sidelines and his offensive coordinator will say, "That's cool. Here's the passing plays I have planned for first and ten when you go back out there. We could also throw on 2nd and 6 or 2nd and 2 if you like. We'll just keep throwing until you get it right. That's fine." Flacco only has to do his job when he must succeed or the drive fails. It's kind of like being a kicker, but for 10 or so drives per game.
3. Flacco succeeded just enough in these do-or-die situations -- when the coaches allowed him to be exposed to them -- that the hated Ravens won last Saturday. How efficient he is in those situations on Sunday will determine the course of the game.

Ben Roethlisberger is in a similar situation, but he needs to carry more of the load than Flacco, because he's a veteran. This will be Roethlisberger's third AFC Championship game in five seasons. That's pretty intense and impressive. Thus far, he's 1-1 and we need to break that tie. In the good direction, of course.

Roethlisberger understands what's at stake, he won't be overwhelmed by the speed of the game, and he'll be ready for the pressure from a fired up Baltimore defense. I don't think he's what's going to decide this game for the Steelers, but...

In order to win, the Steelers must:

1. Avoid Ed Reed and focus on Ray Lewis.
2. Stay with the running game, even when it's not working (it it won't). They need to stay balanced against a great defense like this. They need the running game to throw off of play action. They need the running game because Willie Parker is too much like Chris Johnson for it not to work eventually. Willie has had his struggles against the hated Ravens. In point of fact, he's never had a good game, he's always struggled. But, there's a breakout game for everyone. Here's hoping he gets it Sunday. Also, running the ball keeps it focused towards Lewis and away from Reed.
3. Score early. I'll be surprised if Flacco throws a pass on third and more than five in the entire first quarter. That means that we need to make those early drives count as they insulate him and try to bring him into the game slowly. If we can get up on them 14-0 or 10-0, we really can turn out the lights on this team, provided there isn't a defensive or special teams touchdown.
4. Don't give up a defensive or special teams touchdown. Be smart, be conservative, don't try to do too much. That's how they get you. They can smell desperation and they thrive on it.
5. Win the turnover battle. The teams are too evenly matched for us to lose the turnover battle and win. That simple.

Here's what I think will happen:

1. We'll go no huddle early and pass the ball on almost every down, with some runs to Mewelde Moore thrown in for flavor.
2. We'll stifle their offense early.
3. We'll get out to an early lead.
4. We'll only give up points in garbage time.
5. Willie Parker will get all his yards in the second and third quarters.
6. Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington will be big factors.
7. Looking back at the stat line later, it will be discovered that Todd Heap had a big game, but all his yardage, catches, and his touchdown will come after the game has been decided.
8. Mike Tomlin will have at least one retarded challenge.
9. Hines Ward and Heath Miller will not be big factors in the red zone -- smart money is on Willie, Gary Russell, and Matt Spaeth.
10. Roethlisberger will be high on attempts and touchdowns, but low on yards and interceptions.

So, that means we win, right?

Here's the thing:

1. We beat the hated Ravens by 3 points (in overtime) and 4 points, respectively.
2. The line is 5.
3. I mentioned that they hate us, right?

John Harbaugh doesn't need to prepare a speech to get these guys beyond crazy for kickoff. They're ready for us.

Well...

1. We still freakin' beat them. I am tired of all of this, "If you guys hadn't done the things that beat us, we would have won," talk. It's the worst cop out ever. They know we beat them twice already, we know we beat them twice already, and we have confidence that we can do it again, whereas they have hope that they can stop us from beating them. Big difference.
2. We don't control what the odds makers do. All we can control is kicking the shit out of them.
3. We hate them, too.

In all honesty, I've been over this and over this in my head and there's only two things that scare me.

1. It scares me that they don't scare me.
2. It's playoff time in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are one game away from the Super Bowl. And... there's no buzz. No radio stations playing the "Here We Go" song again and again, only a certain percentage of busses that have "Go Steelers" on their marquee. No people talking about it at the water cooler. I think everyone has become accustomed to the kind of success we have had the last two decades or so and it has spoiled the magic. I'm not saying the fans won't be up for the game, I'm just saying that it's a bad omen that people aren't more psyched up for this game.

Ultimately, I think it breaks down to this:

The hated Ravens of 2008 are the Steelers of 2004. They're a team with a great, veteran defense rallying around a quarterback that is mature beyond his years. They've had some luck. They've won some key games against big competition. But, in the end game, they're simply not ready for prime time.

The 2008 Steelers are the 2004 Patriots. Veteran leadership behind a solid defense that pressures the quarterback and doesn't give up the big play. Clutch quarterback with a knack for running the two minute offense. Just enough talent spread out throughout their receivers and running backs that you can't key on one guy. Tons of postseason experience (and success) and a coaching staff that has been there, done that.

As painful a memory as it might be, remember that the 2004 Patriots were victorious at Heinz Field in the AFC Championship game and the 2004 Steelers were not.

I think we get to Flacco and make him make mistakes. I think we make the right adjustments to be successful on offense and defense. I think we have enough mettle and ice in our veins to pull out the victory.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Hated Ravens 14