Steelers vs. Cardinals Preview

Well, first of all, I think that Steelers West has earned the right to be called the Cardinals, or Arizona. At least for the rest of this season. If Seattle rebounds next year and the Cardinals suck balls, they're right back to Steelers West.

And, of course, if they manage to pull of the upset, then they're the Cardinals (or Arizona) forever.

But let's not talk about that.

I just covered how great the Steelers defense has been this year, but Arizona's offense has been quite good as well. They had three receivers with 1,000 yards this season (to put that in perspective, Hines Ward was our leading receiver by 200 yards and only had 1,043 yards for the season). Kurt Warner threw for almost 4,600 yards and had 30 touchdown passes.

In the playoffs, they've scored at least 30 points in every game they've played in and beat Carolina by 20 in Carolina. Edgerrin James is the leading rusher in the postseason and Larry Fitzgerald has 208 more receiving yards than the second place guy.

A defense that was much maligned during the regular season, giving up 56, 37, 35, and 47 points in various games thoughout the season. But, they've turned things around in the playoffs, forcing 12 turnovers and shutting down Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Brian Westbrook in consecutive weeks.

After allowing 110.2 yards rushing per game in the regular season, they've allowed on 232 yards rushing in three playoff games (77.3 per game), again against some of the best running backs in the league.

They allowed 26.6 points per game before the postseason, 20.7 points per game during the postseason.

Perhaps the biggest improvement, though, has been the fact that they're now running the ball effectively for the first time all season. They were dead last in the NFL in rushing yards (73.6 yards per game) and 31st in yards per attempt (3.5) during the 2008 season and they are averaging 111 yards per game in the playoffs.

Now, I'm not a big proponent of "all you need to do is get hot come playoff time," but Arizona does have some compelling statistics. On top of all the stats, they're playing tougher, they're playing smarter, and Kurt Warner is entering into one of those zones that he can enter into, kind of like Bullet Time, where everyone else is moving very, very slowly, but you're moving in real time. And, as we've seen firsthand, Ken Whisenhunt can also get into a hell of a zone as a play caller, so there's that on top of that.

Here are a few points about that, though:

1. Larry Fitzgerald is averaging 18.2 yards per catch and a touchdown every fourth time he catches the ball. Those numbers are not sustainable. Don't get me wrong, Fitzgerald is a fantastic player, it's just that no one can be that good for that many consecutive games with this much on the line. Think Steve Smith in the 2005 playoffs: He tore up New York, then destroyed Chicago, then ended up with five catches for 33 yards against the Seahawks. They blanketed him and never let him get a clean release off the line of scrimmage and he wasn't a factor.
   
2. The Cardinals are +9 in turnovers the last three games. Their defense has forced 12 turnovers. During the course of an entire 16 game season, they forced 30 turnovers and were even in turnover ratio. Continuing to force four turnovers a game and being +9 in turnover ratio are things that are not sustainable. Turnovers are forced to a degree, but there's also a lot of luck involved. Seventeen of the turnovers Arizona forced during the regular season were recovered fumbles. A lot of that is opportunity and how the ball bounces.
3. I bet you're wondering who led the league in turnovers forced... that would be the hated Ravens with 34, who forced one turnover in the AFC Championship game. A Chargers defense that forced 24 turnovers during the season forced zero in the Divisional round. So, something's gotta give.
   
4. Arizona is running the ball more, but they're not actually running the ball better. They averaged 3.5 yards per carry in the regular season and have averaged 3.3 yards per carry in the playoffs. The Steelers, on the other hand, have allowed 88 total yards rushing in the postseason and 2.4 yards per carry. During the regular season, they lead the league in average yards per carry, holding opponents to an average of 3.3 yards per carry. I don't see them running the ball on us. I just don't see it. Maybe, maybe if they come out in that big formation they used against Philly for about 50 percent of the snaps and we come out in dime... maybe. No one has run against us all year and I don't think this Cardinals team is going to be the one to break that streak.
5. They're still giving up 324 yards per game. That's a lot. That's actually more yards than the Steelers gave up in any individual game thus far this season. And, for all those that are wondering how many yards per game they gave up during the regular season when everyone thought they were the team's weakness... 331.
   
6. Kurt Warner has been on fire. I don't think that continues... at least not to the degree he's been on fire thus far this postseason. One reason is that Fitzgerald won't be getting him 150 yards per game. The other reason is the Steelers defense.

Since our pass defense has been so bad for so long, people don't realize how good they've been this season.

1. Jason Campbell hadn't thrown an interception all season before he faced the Steelers in Week 9. He threw two on Monday Night Football.
   
2. Matt Cassel came into his game against the Steelers having thrown for 400 yards in two consecutive games. And he was at home. And the weather was nice. He ended up with 4.3 yards per attempt, 169 yards, and two interceptions.
3. Tony Romo had 210 yards, but only one touchdown and three interceptions, one of which was returned for the game winning score.
4. Joe Flacco threw 15 interceptions in 19 games this season. Five of those were against the Steelers.
5. Philip Rivers had an amazing season. He actually had a better season in terms of touchdowns, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and passer rating than Kurt Warner. If he hadn't played the Steelers twice this season he'd have, including playoffs, a passer rating of 106. After playing the Steelers -- remember only two games out of 18 -- his passer rating dropped to 102. And, remember, a lot of those yards and one long touchdown went to Darren Sproles when the game was already well decided.
6. Okay, okay, Peyton Manning had a big game against our defense. But, he's the only quarterback to have a big game against us this year. I can't analyze that game too much, for obvious reasons, but I do know that Reggie Wayne caught a ball that bounced off the side of Ike Taylor's head and took it 65 yards for a touchdown, so the numbers are skewed by that.

I know they have great receivers. I know Steve Breaston would start for a lot of teams. But, we have four good to great cornerbacks: Ike Taylor is an alternate for the Pro Bowl, Bryant McFadden is a personal favorite of mine, Deshea Townsend has defied the odds and continues to be consistently good, and William Gay has risen above his name to be the best nickel cornerback in the league, holding opposing receivers to 3.3 yards per attempt (got this stat from Football Outsiders, so I'm going to assume they're right).

So, our defense should do well against their offense. At least their offense will not get a ton of yards against our defense. But, as we've discovered, through special teams and turnovers a team does not need to gain a lot of yards to score. More on this in a moment.

When I think about our offense versus their defense, one thing keeps jumping out at me.

Check out this quarterback's stats:

3,520 yards, 36 touchdown passes, only 13 interceptions, and a 96.9 passer rating.

Do you know who that is? That's the stats for the quarterbacks who have played the Cardinals this season. They gave up thirty-six touchdown passes this season. That's over two a game.

Hines Ward has said that he's playing, Heath Miller is starting to become a real threat, Santonio Holmes has been tearing it up the last six or seven games, and Nate Washington and Limas Sweed can't be as bad as they've been (right? Um... right?) Top that off with the fact that Ben Roethlisberger has been better than his stats (three bad games against the Colts, Giants, and Eagles crushed his season stats) and we should be able to move the ball on their defense.

Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and Rod Hood would be playing the Townsend and Gay positions on our defense. They're good, but they're not great. Rogers-Cromartie is playing well for a rookie, but not playing great for a rookie and barely playing good overall.

Adrian Wilson is a hell of a player, but I'd still rather have Polamalu.

I really think we can pass on this team. If we set up the run by passing, we'll be in really good shape. If we come out and try to "establish dominance" and "be physical" and "do the things that made us get off to a slow start in most games this season," then we'll get off to a slow start. If we come out swinging, I think we'll be in very good shape.

As far as their front seven is concerned, they have a bunch of interchangeable parts, which has given us trouble in the running game in the past (no one knows who to block) but not the passing game (no one knows who to block no matter what the formation). Karlos Dansby can play either end position and either outside linebacker position. Linebacker Chike Okaefor used to be an end. End Bert Berry has played linebacker.

So, all three of those guys can play four positions on the front seven. That means they can have a 4-3 front, a 3-4 front, a 2-5 front, or a 5-2 front. That's a lot of different formations. The hated Ravens use those multiple fronts on us all the time, the Jets used it on us in 2007, and the Patriots had used it on us successfully for almost a decade.

If they keep switching up formations, we won't be able to run the ball effectively and we'll probably give up on it unless we have a lead. The area where the Cardinals are vulnerable along the front seven (and especially along the defensive line) is in gap discipline. With Fast Willie, all it takes is for one guy to shoot the wrong gap, one guy to overcommit, or one guy to misread a play (and we run a lot of counters, which are easy to misread), and Fast Willie can hit for a big play.

I honestly don't think the running game is going to be a huge factor, but it's going to play a role. Fast Willie will probably finish with something like 24 carries for 88 yards, but he'll have a bunch of carries for 1 yard, 2 yards, 0 yards, -2 yards, and -1 yard, and one (or a couple) for big gains. Kinda like he did against the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL (which we won, btw).

I have a feeling that will be enough. But, if we don't get those big runs, we might not win.

If we throw the ball early (and late and, basically, a lot), our offense will do well against their defense.

Therefore, since I think our offense will do well against their defense and our defense will do well against their offense, I must think it's going to be a blowout, right?

Well, not exactly. Actually, not it at all, really.

So... I must be one of those people that thinks Whisenhunt's and Grimm's knowledge of our personnel will give Arizona's defense a huge advantage, right?

No, not really.

1. When Grimm left, Willie Colon was a rookie and not starting. Max Starks was the starting right tackle, not the left tackle. Chris Kemeauatu was a back-up and Alan Faneca was starting. Jeff Hartings was our center. DFS was... was he on the team? So, he knows the strengths and weaknesses of Starks... as a right tackle, not a left tackle. Basically he knows Jack and shit, and Jack left town.
2. Whisenhunt knows how Dick Lebeau's mind works, but Lebeau also knows how Whisenhunt's mind works. So that's a wash.
3. As far as Ben Roethlisberger is concerned, Whisenhunt knows that Roethlisberger doesn't respond well to being in a motorcycle accident and getting a concussion, coupled with having his coach quit on him early all in the same four month span. Raise your hand if you knew this, too. At the most, Whisenhunt knows what Roethlisberger doesn't like during the course of the game, but the entire league pretty much knows that at this point. The challenge is putting your players in a position to making those plays and making that happen to Roethlisberger, which is more up to them executing than you having "inside information."
   
4. Roethlisberger is a much different quarterback than he was two years ago, but he's also very similar. The thing is that you don't need any special advantage to know that he holds the ball too long, is sometimes in too much of a hurry to look off the safety, and he'll tend to take a lot of dumb chances if he's way behind in a game. Everyone that has watched film on Roethlisberger knows these things. My grandmother knows these things. So, everyone had better hope my Nana isn't on the Arizona sidelines giving Cardinals defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast tips.

If Whisenhunt and Grimm don't have a special advantage, then it'll be easy as pie for the Steelers to win, right? Right?

Well, here's the thing.

Almost every Super Bowl champion since the beginning of the century has been able to play the "no respect" card. The hated Ravens could say no one respected their offense. The 2001 Pats... where do I start? The 2002 Bucs, no one respected their defense. The 2003 Pats, everyone thought 2001 was a fluke. We were a 6th seed. The 2006 Colts had, "No run defense and Peyton Manning is a choke artist." The 2007 Giants... where do I start?

The Cardinals have been getting some respect (note: I am now calling them the Cardinals) during this run, but they're still essentially disrespected. They're one of the worst franchises ever and they're touchdown underdogs to one of the greatest franchises in Super Bowl history.

They have nothing to lose, they'll come in loose, and they'll play hard. And we might not be ready for them.

They have too many intangibles on their side -- no one respects them, no one outside their locker room believed in them, they're underdogs, they're the Cardinals, they have a quarterback that's married to Gozer and is 139 years old, they're playing a great team with an amazing defense -- there are too many storylines that favor an upset.

If the Steelers win, we don't even have a good catch phrase. Sure, the beer companies came up with Six Pack, but that's pretty lame. If we win, the storyline will be, "Steelers Win. Again. Yay." If Arizona wins, I'm seeing shades of The Onion's moon landing headline.

My buddy Joel isn't nervous about this game at all. My buddy Keith thinks the Steelers will roll. My brother is cautiously optimistic. Laszlo thinks we shouldn't overlook them... but we won't. So he's not nervous.

Even people who are nervous -- me, Weidman, my buddy Dan -- are nervous because they're not nervous. For me, it's like before the AFC Championship game. What scared me was that I wasn't scared.

The match-ups favor us, experience favors us, the sports pundits favor us, and Vegas favors us. We should win.

I said earlier that 18.2 yards per catch for Fitzgerald and four turnovers per game for the defense were not sustainable. But, they maybe get one of those and make it close. If they get both, they win.

I think we come out rocky, have some turnovers, but turn it around after we survive the best shot they had in the first half. Come the second half, there's too much defense, too many running backs, and too much Roethlisberger.

Prediction:

Steelers 28, Cardinals 24