Steelers vs. Chargers Preview

I'm not going to do the "Poop My Pants" motif, because this is the playoffs and I'm gonna switch it up.

Plus which, I don't think I have 16 points, but we'll see.

Steelers Offense vs. Chargers Defense:

1. The last time we played these guys, we only scored 18 points (I am aware of what the official final score was and I don't care), but we gained 410 yards. We were 0-3 in goal-to-go situations and sucked balls in general when we got inside their 40. Nine of those points were scored by the defense. But, that was only Ron Rivera's third week on the job as defensive coordinator and he's come a long way since then. At that point, they were running mostly Cover 2 stuff and mixing in some blitzes every now and again. Rivera was blowing things up and slowly introducing new elements. It's been a process that has lasted about two months, but the Chargers defense showed on Saturday night that they have a full grasp of Rivera's system and can run pretty much whatever he needs them to run, including changing things up between the huddle and the snap in order to confuse the offense.
2. But, here's the thing: The ability to switch things up that fast really works best against Peyton Manning. Roethlisberger changes a few things before the snap every now and again -- mostly when they go no huddle -- but, for the most part, he still gets the play, reads it off his wristband, and goes to work. Where he does the most improvising is after the snap and there's not a whole hell of a lot the Chargers can do about that scheme-wise. They just need to stay disciplined.
3. San Diego finished 31st against the pass, 25th overall, and let up an average of 349.9 yards per game. For those of you keeping score at home, that's .9 yards per game more than they gained on offense and 112 yards more per game than the Steelers let up on defense. I know that they improved towards the end of the season, but that's a lot of yards. It's not like you can suddenly flip on the "unsuck" switch and be awesome in an instant.
   
4. Also, it's important to understand how many yards 410 yards is for the Steelers offense. They only gained 400 or more yards in total offense one other time this season and that was against the Jaguars (415). They didn't get 400 yards against the Patriots (33 points), Texans (38), Bengals (38 points and 27 points), or Cleveland (31). And, before you say, "Well they had a lot of sacks and turnovers in those games and scored a defensive touchdown in most of them." Well, the Steelers only had two sacks agains the Chargers in the regular season, but they forced three turnovers, scored a safety, and scored a touchdown. And ended up with 18 points.
5. So... what I'm saying, basically, is that we can move the ball on this defense.
6. They're not necessarily a pressure defense, since they had only 28 sacks this year and they're a different team without Shawne Merriman, but they did get four of those sacks against the Steelers. And they do get a lot of hits and knockdowns on quarterbacks, which isn't something huge like sacks, but certainly isn't a little thing.
7. I just have a feeling that we're not going to suck as much on their side of the field, we're going to be able to move the ball, and we can score points. Of course, they can score points, too, having finished second in the NFL (and #1 in the AFC) in scoring offense, with 27.4 points per game.

Steelers Defense vs. Chargers Offense:

1. LaDanian Tomlinson confirmed that he has a torn tendon in his groin. Tomlin said on Tuesday that he expects Tomlinson to play. I think Tomlin is more than a little crazy. I hope Tomlinson plays, I really do. Anyone out there ever try to walk with a sore groin? Now imagine trying to run with a torn one. And there are big, strong, fat, angry guys chasing you and trying to hurt you. If he plays, he's not going to be effective.
2. That means Darren Sproles, the mighty midget, is going to suit up and carry the load. And Michael Bennett is going to chip in, but he wasn't able to beat out Mewelde Moore for the starting job back in the day when they were both with Minnesota. Now, Mewelde Moore is a hell of a player, but he was also our third string running back when the season started. And the Vikings chose to release Bennett and keep Moore a couple years ago.
3. I like Sproles. I was hoping the Steelers would draft him when he came out of Kansas State. He's a great story, a fantastic athlete, and a guy that finishes runs really well for being 181 pounds. He's also a speed guy, an athlete, and a guy that needs to cut (and he cuts a lot, making moves on his moves) in order to be effective. The forecast for Sunday calls for snow. The forecast for Friday calls for snow. The forecast for Saturday calls for a shitload of snow. By Sunday evening, Heinz Field is going to be closer to green bean casserole than a professionally maintained grass surface. Sproles benefited from good weather and an even better surface last Saturday, but he won't get that on Sunday. Not by a long shot. I'd say he slips or misses a cut at least four times. And that's going to kill him, because you just don't get a lot of chances against this defense.
4. Antonio Gates has a high ankle sprain. Vincent Jackson got a DUI. Now, it's the playoffs, so he's probably not going to get suspended, but with Kaiser Goodell at the helm, anything could happen. These first four points don't paint a real pretty picture for the Chargers offense, to say nothing of the fact that they have to face the league's best defense.
5. The silver lining for them is Philip Rivers. He's a big game guy, he does well in the final two minutes, and the offensive players rally around him. With Tomlinson struggling this season, this became Rivers' team. He led the league in passer rating (105.5) and touchdown passes (34).
6. The big, puffy, angry, gray cloud is that Rivers had, by far, his worst game of the season against the Steelers in Week 11. He had a 44.4 passer rating. He didn't throw a touchdown pass and threw two interceptions. He fumbled on a sack, which led to a safety. And, with Rivers playing crappily, a team that scored 439 points on the season only scored 10 against the Steelers. If he doesn't have a big game, the Chargers offense doesn't have a big game. First and foremost, we need to stop Philip Rivers.

Special Teams:

1. We have pretty big advantages in the other two phases of the game, but we are completely outmatched here, except of course at kicker. If the game comes down to a field goal then we did something wrong. But, if it comes down to a field goal, I'll take Jeff Reed over Nate Kaeding (who's also injured) every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
2. But, I think I'd take Mike Scifries with two busted hamstrings over a fully healthy Bitch Merger. Point of interest: There is nothing wrong with either of Scifries' hammies and Merger probably isn't fully healed, either. That disparity is probably worth 15 yards of field position per set of possessions.
3. Sproles is significantly better than whoever we have on punts and kickoffs. That's worth another 10 yards per possession.
4. That means we maybe needed outgain them 410 yards to 218 yards again. Huh. How about that.

X-Factors:

1. I already wrote about the luck-mojo that the Chargers have going for them (the Kaiser Soze reference) in the Playoff Primer and that's a huge factor in their favor.
2. We've pulled off a lot of huge come-from-behind, lucky, improbable wins against good teams this year, so that's a huge factor in our favor.
3. As the underdog and the road team, they've got the whole "us against the world thing" going for them and we've got everything to lose. And Tomlin's 0-1 at home and they're 2-0 against us all time in the postseason. And that includes the 1994 AFC Championship game, where we were prohibitive favorites and they ended up beating us in Pittsburgh and going to the Super Bowl. I should stop talking about this.
4. But, we've got the biggest advantage of all going for us in Sunday's game. And that's that I'm going to be there. I have pretty crappy seats, but my 10-1 record and I will be there. With bells on. And pants. And thermal underwear.

I really thing that we match up too well against the Chargers to lose this game. I realize that I am in mortal danger of jinxing this game by saying that, but I really just don't see it.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Chargers 17