Early Super Bowl Thoughts

A few things that jump out at me with, like, 35 days of hype and storylines left to go:

1. Did you know that Ken Whisenhunt, Russ Grimm, and Kevin Spencer used to coach for the Steelers? Yeah. Really. It happened. Wait, who the hell is Kevin Spencer? Special teams? Ah, screw him. Whisenhunt took himself out of the running for the top job after Cowher retired in March 2006 and Grimm -- according to one guy at one newspaper that wasn't sure about his source (since it wasn't, ya know, Russ Grimm) -- almost had the head job until the Rooneys pulled the rug out from under him and hired some young black guy no one had heard of. How dare they! Whisenhunt, Grimm, and that other guy want revenge! Well, actually, Whisenhunt was offered the Raiders job in 2006 and took the Cardinals job in 2007 before the Steelers had made up their minds. Grimm might have thought he was getting the job, but he now gets to live in Arizona and dropped 40 pounds. He's doing great. If anyone has a right to be pissed, it's Spencer. No one ever mentions him amidst all this revenge talk and the Steelers special teams have wicked sucked since he left.
2. The Cardinals finished the season at 9-7 and only outscored their opponents by one point for the year. Talk about wicked sucking. They must be pushovers. Well, since then, they beat the Falcons by six (wasn't that close), the Panthers by 20 IN CAROLINA and the Eagles by seven (lead 21-6 at halftime). Anyone that does all that deserves attention and respect.
3. Larry Fitzgerald is an absolutely tremendous receiver and the best in the NFL right now, but the Steelers (and Dick LeBeau) have an equally tremendous record of shutting down the other team's best guy and making them beat us with their second and third best guys. See also in big games in recent years: Moss, Randy, Berrian, Bernard, Alexander, Shaun.
4. I think the line is too high. It's at seven right now (opened at seven) and I have a feeling it'll get higher rather than lower. That line, at a neutral site, tells me that Vegas would lay 10 points if this game were played in Heinz Field. That's just too high.
5. I think the over/under is too low. It's 47. I thought it was insanely high when I first looked at it, but, the more I think about it, the more I think we're going to need to score 28 points to win. If seven points is too high of a line, then that makes it 28-23 or 28-24. Even 28-21. Add those up and there's your over.
6. Experience has been mentioned as being a big factor, but it's being mentioned as generally being a big factor, not specifically. I think that it is a big factor for a couple of reasons: The Arizona players being tight or overwhelmed will only make a significant difference in the first quarter and the last two minutes and there's a huge difference in terms of how recently and how much experience everyone has. If the Cardinals come out tight in the first quarter and make some mistakes and we capitalize, it's 14-3 or so and we've got them. We came out tight against the Seahawks because they were more experienced and prepared, but they didn't take advantage of it and we somehow closed the half with the lead. If Arizona does that to us (and we do it to ourselves, it's a two-way street), then they can win... unless it's close in the 4th quarter, where Roethlisberger's overall effectiveness in the two minute offense and our confidence and experience will be a huge factor. Hate to bring it up, but the 1995 team folded in the fourth quarter because they panicked and got sloppy. The 70s teams owned the fourth quarter, at least in the key moments (X and XIII), and particularly in IX and XIV. For IX and XIV, they were clearly the better team, talent won out in IX and experience advantage won out in XIV.
7. How recently and how much experience (sorry, needed a new numbered list): Kurt Warner is the only person on the offense with starting experience in a Super Bowl and that was in 2001. And that didn't end so well for him. Clark Haggans is the only guy on defense, but he's not a starter now. Of the other guys, my boy Brian St. Pierre and Sean Morrey have Super Bowl experience, but they weren't prominently involved. The only non-Steeler-non-Kurt-Warner player on the roster with Super Bowl experience is Rod Hood, but that was as a back-up with the Eagles in 2004. And, again, didn't end so well. Roethlisberger was a starter in Super Bowl XL (which the Steelers won, BTW) and had a crappy game. Actually, he had the worst passer rating of any Super Bowl winning quarterback. But, if you look at the games he's lost and the bad performances he's had, especially in the postseason, he tends to learn from his mistakes and apply what he has learned. Hines Ward is a Super Bowl MVP, Heath Miller and Nate Washington played in the big game as rookies, Willie Parker did okay for himself, Max Starks was involved, and there are guys on IR (Smith and Simmons) that were involved and can provide guidance to the offensive linemen that don't have Super Bowl experience. On defense, Farrior, Foote, Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, Polamalu, and Deshea Townsend were all starters and Brett Keisel was prominently involved. And we won. And that was just three years ago. If you look back at Super Bowl XLII, the Patriots had the advantage in the first quarter due to their edge in experience, they just didn't capitalize. The last 35 seconds were WAAAAAY more excited than they should have been and that was due to the fact that the inexperienced Giants defense underestimated how desperate a team can get with only 35 seconds left when there is no tomorrow and a championship on the line. Again, Brady missed Moss a couple times by only a few feet. If the Patriots had taken advantage there, they might have been 19-0 in 2007.
8. I'm glad that coach Tomlin is the only black coach in the Super Bowl. In 2006, I was disappointed that the first black coach to win a Super Bowl was going to win it by default -- both Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith qualified. While it was monumental and important, it's not like that black coach beat a white coach to win. I was happy that it happened period, don't get me wrong, but it's more significant if a black coach beats a white coach in the eyes of the old, stodgy dudes that make decisions about who works and who doesn't. If Doug Williams had beat Randall Cunningham (yes, I know they were in the same conference) to win the Super Bowl, then it wouldn't have been as signficant. He beat John Elway and won the MVP and that paved the way for guys like, well, Cunningham and Donovan McNabb and Byron Leftwich and Kordell and Michael Vick and Daunte Culpepper. That's not the greatest list ever, but the fact that a bunch of guys that would just get labelled "athletes" and have to play tailback or receiver got a chance to play the game's most important position is... important. Dungy retired, Crennell got fired, Herm Edwards got fired. If a black guy wins the Super Bowl -- especially head to head against the two white guys that didn't get the job he has -- it's going to make a big difference. And, I know, the most powerful person on the planet is a black man now. But the NFL moves a hell of a lot slower than the rest of the world. And, taking color out of it, it could also mean that more assistants get a shot at a head coaching job, which means that we stop recycling old guys that have been around forever. That's been the trend the last couple of year, but Mangini already got recycled and you can beat your sweet ass that McCarthy and Lane Kiffin will get recycled in the future.

That's all I have at the moment. More to come. I still have 11 days until kickoff, right?