Playoff Primer

Editor's Note: I wrote half of this on Saturday, then never got around to writing the other half. So, it may seem a little disjointed and I'll fill in the gaps where I can. Also, I picked all four winners from Wild Card weekend, so it doesn't change my bracket at all.

We've come to the time of year when all the major movie studios release their Oscar-hopeful movies in the hopes that the Academy will forget that they pegged us with crap like Righteous Kill, Disaster Movie, and Good Luck Chuck all year.

I usually catch at least one, if not two, of these movies every year, but I'm struggling with which ones to see this year. There are a lot of movies with a lot of potential to be great, but there is some severe suckitude potential as well.

Doubt has an all-star cast and I loved the play, but the screen play was written by the guy who wrote the stage play and the film was directed by that same guy. I have this awful feeling that it's going to be 100 minutes of gripping performances, viewed from a wide angle lens, consisting mostly of three people in a room, sitting around and talking. There's a reason that Hollywood stopped adapting anything but musicals in about 1965. Plays are dialog driven, films are action driven. Sometimes you get A Few Good Men or 12 Angry Men (maybe they should change the name to Doubt Men), most of the time you get... well, take your pick of crappy, art-house play-to-movie flops. My (least) favorite is American Buffalo. (Editor's Note: Saw it
on Saturday and it's a quality film. It translated well. They did just enough to make you forget it was based on a play -- shooting more outdoor scenes, moving shots, just the right amount of close-ups and cuts -- and leaned on the script and the performances.)

Frost/Nixon is an entire movie that is based around an interview. Great cast, great concept, but it strikes me as having the possibility of being like a movie about a fluffer that gets a scene with Peter North at the end of the movie. I can just sense a feeling of, "I waited two hours for that? I need a Kleenex."

Milk sounds like it has a strong cast, I like Sean Penn, and it's a movie about someone overcoming a disability to achieve great things. (That joke was subtle and considerably funnier if you know what Milk is about. Go ahead and Google it. I'll wait... yeah, not as funny if you need an explanation.) But, there's a real possibility of them going over-the-top, beating you over
the head with a message, and Penn hamming it up too much in anticipation of his "I'd like to thank the Academy" moment.

The Reader has a naked Kate Winslet, but it also has a clothed Kate Winslet.

My point is this: All the playoff teams have the potential to win the Super Bowl, but they all have the potential to fall prey to mass suckitude. And, unlike a lot of other years, the team that ends up winning will probably not be the team with the fewest holes. It will be the team that covers up their weaknesses the best.

NFC:

Arizona Cardinals:

Everyone is down on these guys because they spent the past four weeks in the wood shed. Well, they deserve all the criticism they're getting for getting pasted in four of their last six games and only outscoring their opponents by one point over the course of the season, but the point is that
they're here, they have no fear, get used to it (bringing it back to Milk with that.)

They're the ultimate high-risk, high-reward team on both offense and defense. They could force six fumbles and return two of them for touchdowns, they could give up 250 yards rushing to Michael Turner and get embarrassed in their own stadium.

But, if they get hot, there's no other team in the league that has the potential to get hotter, especially on offense.

However, now that they have to travel to Carolina, they're screwed. ThePanthers have a great pass defense and have more going for them running the ball than the Falcons do. They also have Steve Smith and no one on Steelers West can cover him.

Carolina Panthers:

They have a great running game, a solid pass defense, and Steve Smith.

They also have Jake Delhomme (who had Tommy John surgery in the offseason), no receivers other than Steve Smith, and are one of those "great potential" teams that never seems to live up to their great potential.

Of course, they will still beat Steelers West.

Philadelphia Eagles:

I know they kicked the crap out of us and I know everyone wants to see a

Turnpike Super Bowl, but I gotta say I don't think it's going to happen.

Philly plays great pressure defense, Brian Westbrook is one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, and Asante Samuel is one of the mostdangerous defenders this side of Ed Reed. But... I just don't think they have enough.

They can't run the ball, they pass too much, they have Andy Reid as their head coach (7-0 in his first playoff game in a postseason, 2-6 in his second), and their front seven, while awesome, could wear down pretty easily throughout the course of a game. Particularly if they're playing a team that is physical and likes to run the ball like, oh, say, the Giants. Just because they haven't worn down very often thus far does not meant that they won't do it. And at the worst possible time.

If they were playing Steelers West this weekend, I'd give them more of a shot, but they're playing a good, balanced team that split the division serieswith them this year (so there's none of that, "It's tough to beat a team three times in a year," bunk).

New York Giants:

This is the football equivalent to Doubt. Ironically enough, I had thefewest doubts about Doubt since the Oscar orgy started, which is why I saw itfirst. And I was 95% sure I'd like it, but there was still that 5%.

The 5% against New York is a bunch of circumstantial stuff. Their defense hasn't looked super sharp the past few games. They had a week off, so they might be rusty. If you stop their running game, it's fairly easy to stop them, especially since their star receiver and tight end are out of the picture.

But, they still have a great defense, they still have three quality runningbacks, they still have the best offensive line in football, and they still havea very serviceable quarterback with postseason experience and as many Super Bowl rings as his brother.

They have the fewest holes and the most talent. And, while "getting hot at the right time" and superior game planning are extremely important in the playoffs, talent still wins out. They have also beat all three teams left in the bracket and are suddenly clutch behind Tom Coughlin.

Panthers beat Steelers West, Giants beat Eagles

Giants beat Panthers and advance to Super Bowl XLIII

AFC:

Hated Ravens:

Well, so, it's well established that I hate these guys, but I have to admit that they couldn't have drawn better match-ups if they tried. I think the Dolphins are a great story, but I actually deleted the breakdown I did of them and why they might be able to get to the Super Bowl when I wrote the second half of this article on Tuesday (also deleted a pretty good dick joke, but that's neither here nor there). The Dolphins are a 9-7 or 8-8 team that got lucky and won 11 games. Hey, it happens. We got unlucky in 2006 and only went 8-8 (and had to deal with Cowher's March 2006 retirement). We got unlucky in 2003, too, went 6-10 when we probably could have gone 10-6, drafted Ben, and the rest is history.

We had a better team in 2005 than in 2004, but the 2004 team finished with a better record by four full games because of scheduling and luck. Miami sucks, is my point. I was hoping and praying that they'd actually win on Sunday, but it was not to be.

Baltimore's a good team, maybe even a great team, and they're scary in a single-elimination situation because they keep the game close and they're just one Ed Reed interception return or kick return from breaking a game wide open.

On the other side of that, they're also waiting for a big play that may never happen. And, if it does happen, but doesn't demoralize the other team, then they lose their biggest weapon. They were up 13-3 at the end of the first half and I knew the game was over. That kind of certainty to desperation from the Dolphins and the hated Ravens thrive on that. Every blowout they were involved in this year had at least one of those plays.

The time they got blown out -- against the Colts -- they didn't even come close to getting one. And they didn't get one against us. We got two on them -- Woodley's scoop-and-score in the first game and Santonio's touchdown in the second -- and that was that.

They didn't get a big play on defense or special teams in the game against the Titans earlier this year and that was the difference in the game. Say they get one on Saturday. They could win that game. They're scary because they can beat anyone left in the bracket, but they're also not scary because anyone left in the bracket can beat them.

Beating the hated Ravens is very simple: Jump out to an early lead -- preferably with a big play on defense or special teams -- and make them throw the ball. Joe Flacco has done a hell of a job this year, but they haven't put the game completely on him yet. But, no one has been able to do that to them except the Colts this season, so it seems unlikely.

Tennessee Titans:

I'm going to stand by what I said in November. I don't trust their receivers, their quarterback is
a hundred years old and, if we play them again, we're not turning the ball over five times again and we're not letting up 128 sacks. They're good enough to win most games, but I don't think that they're quite dominant and you need to have a little of that if you're going to win the Super Bowl, to say nothing of actually getting there.

They have terrific running backs and a great defense, but they don't have that spark on special teams, that guy that can make a big play on a return or force a fumble in kick coverage. They haven't made a ton of big plays on defense. They haven't made a ton of big plays period. They lack thatone guy that makes you say, "Oh, shit. We definitely have toaccount for _________."

A lot of people will say Albert Haynesworth is that guy, but I don't think a defensive tackle is in a position to make enough game changing plays that you need to by conscious of where he is at all times.

Like you have to be with Troy. Or Roethlisberger. Or James Harrison. Or Ed Reed.

So, the lack of an "Oh shit" factor makes me think that the hated Ravens will beat them on Saturday.

San Diego Chargers:

It would be inaccurate to say that they looked good against the Colts.

It really would. I think they looked better than the Colts and made a couple more plays than Indy and that was the difference. Their pass defense, which was 31st in the league at the end of the season but Ron Rivera (remember him? I'm pretty sure the Steelers talked to him, gave Tomlin the job, then he ended up getting fired from Chicago and working as the linebackers
coach for San Diego before Ted Cottrell got fired and they promoted Rivera) went from hot head coach candidate to the dog house to defensive coordinator and then back to hot candidate again, all because he came in with a good game plan and shut down Peyton Manning on Saturday night. I still don't trust their defense. We gained 410 yards against them when we played them, we just didn't score.

However, since they have the league's second-highest scoring offense, they don't need much of a defense. Right?

Well, LaDanian Tomlinson is probably going to miss the game and star receiver Vincent Jackson just got busted for another DUI when he was already on probation. And Antonio Gates has a high ankle sprain, which is an injury that kept Kendrell Bell out of the line-up for most of the season. That leaves the offense in the hands of Philip Rivers -- who had his worst game of
the season against us -- and Chris Chambers, who was hurt most of the year and is unreliable at best.

Now, the Chargers managed some miracles the last couple of years in the playoffs on Norv Turner's play calling and by putting the game on the very small shoulders of Darren Sproles. Who do you like in this match-up: Dick LeBeau and a Steelers defense that was historically good during the regular season and finally healthy after the bye week? Or Norv Turner with a midget tailback, a hobbled former basketball star playing tight end, Chris Chambers and a dude that could enter Sunday either drunk or suspended (or both)?

Okay, I stacked the deck a little there, but you see what I mean.

All that having been said, this team is like Verbal Kint. It's protected from up on high by the prince of darkness. They finished 8-8, yet they won their division. I know they won five straight to get to this point, but Denver also had to pull of an epic choke job. The Colts gave the game away on Saturday night and the Chargers benefited from some questionable calls late in the game.

But, I'd also rather the Steelers play them than any other team in the bracket.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

We know the strengths and weaknesses at this point. Legendary defense, clutch quarterback, exceptional coaching staff, and a bunch of capable veterans mixed in with some young talent at all the key positions.

They can't protect the quarterback and they can't really run the ball, buteveryone has holes. If they come out no huddle -- not against the Chargers, but in a super-duper important game that they might lose if they don't do something wacky -- they can keep the defense off balance, move the ball, and not worry about having to run it. By the time the defense adjusts, get back to playing Steeler football and hope that you have a 14 point lead.

In 2005, we finally started thinking outside the box in terms of our game planning and it paid off. I think that the Steelers and the Giants are the only two teams remaining that truly understand the gravity of the situation. For that reason, coupled with all the stuff about the Giants being balanced and everything we bring to the table, the Steelers and Giants will be the two teams that make it to the Super Bowl.

Hated Ravens beat Titans, Steelers beat Chargers

Steelers beat hated Ravens

Steelers advance to Super Bowl XLIII

And... the Giants beat the Steelers in the Big Game. Sorry, but that's how I see it right now.

I also reserve the right to change this prediction if the Steelers actually make it to the Super Bowl. But there are some games to be played in the meantime.