2. I talked to my brother last night and he said that one of his keys to the game is pressuring Warner. I agree, but I think that everyone else in the playoffs has done it wrong. Warner is great against the blitz. In the regular season, Warner completed 64.4 percent of his passes against the blitz. He had 14 touchdown passes and was sacked only five times in blitzing situations. His quarterback rating against the blitz was 103.1.
Here's where I think we have an advantage: We don't blitz that much. Most of the time, we send only four or five guys, as opposed to the six or seven guys that the Eagles and Panthers regularly sent. Most of the time, the Eagles and Panthers played man coverage behind the blitz. Kurt Warner is incredibly accurate, so he torches man coverage. He doesn't have a weak arm, but he doesn't have a rocket arm, so fitting the ball into small windows against zone coverage is a challenge for him.
Also, he's not the best quarterback in the world at reading zones and often overlooks players that are sitting in zones. He's a "ready, fire, aim" kind of guy, kind of like Tommy Maddox. When he gets into a groove, he's pretty much unstoppable, but he can also be fooled into throwing a ball into triple coverage.
Remember 2003 and 2005, when teams figured out that all they needed to do was sit in zones five yards from the line of scrimmage and all a linebacker had to do to make Maddox think he was blitzing was take a step towards the line and yell, "SCHMITZ!"? And then they'd just drop into coverage and Tommy would throw it right to them? I'm sure we all remember the Rashean Mathis Game in 2005 when Maddox singlehandedly destroyed us against Jacksonville.
My point is that Warner can be forced into similar mistakes, but not quite as frequently and not quite as drastic.
The closest defense to ours that Warner and the Cardinals have faced this season is the Patriots. Those would be the same Patriots that killed Arizona 47-7. And Warner was benched early. According to Whisenhunt, that was because the Cardinals had already clinched their playoff seed and he didn't want Warner to get hurt... but he looked pretty bad.
Well, so, in order to stop Warner, you need to get pressure with four or five guys and play zone in the backend.
I think now is an appropriate time to mention that Dick Lebeau invented something called the zone blitz defense and that's the kind of defense the Steelers run. And have run for the past five seasons.
3. Warner's very, very good at holding onto the ball until the last possible instant before getting it out and hitting the receiver in stride. But, if we can confuse him long enough to waste a half second, then he'll think that last possible instant is a half second after where it actually is.
While he's trying to sense the pressure and waiting for his receiver to uncover, Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison will be taking turns knocking his dick into his watch pocket.
Warner's 37 years old and is a little shell shocked from his last couple of seasons with the Rams and his only season with the Giants. His only season with the Giants, he had nine starts and fumbled the ball 12 times. He makes Rashard Mendenhall look like Jerome Bettis when it's not first and goal from the 2 in the Divisional Round of the 2005 playoffs.
Pressure Warner early and he will turtle in the fourth quarter. If he doesn't fumble first. Then again... there's no room for a football in that shell... so...
4. Hines Ward just needs to be on the field. If he suits up and plays, one of two things happen: Either the Cardinals double him and he becomes a decoy or they ignore him and he makes them pay for it.
5. Limas Sweed and Nate Washington are unreliable, but Heath Miller is going to be a big factor in this game.
I think Sweed and/or Washington will get behind the coverage, but whether or not they actually catch the ball is a different story.
6. Arizona's offensive line has been helped tremendously by Russ Grimm and the fact that they've been together for the past two seasons, with the same starting five that whole time.
But, they're not great athletes. If they have to hold their blocks too long -- like they did in the 3rd quarter against Atlanta and the 3rd quarter against Philly -- Warner's in big trouble.
I think the defense will show a lot of different looks before the snap in order to confuse the offensive line and confuse Warner, so the fact that these guys are big and physical won't mean too much.
In point of fact, the offensive lines for the hated Ravens and the San Diego Chargers are bigger and more physical and you saw how well they did against our front seven, especially running the ball.
7. The more I think about it, the more the 2008 Steelers remind me of the 2004 Patriots.
- Faced a tough schedule during the regular season, fought through the games they needed to fight through, won the games they were supposed to win, finished as the #2 seed in the AFC despite the fact that they had a solid record.
- Not big on style points, not a lot of stars. Both teams had only three players voted to the Pro Bowl.
- Clutch quarterback that didn't post great stats.
- Lots of moving parts on offense and defense with no dominant lead rusher or receiver on offense and an emphasis on team and scheme on defense.
- Roster loaded with playoff and Super Bowlexperience and guys that had been with the team for quite some time.
- Played an up-and-coming team with a great defense, committment to the running game, and surprisingly mature rookie quarterback in the AFC Championship game and won in Heinz Field.
- Super Bowl opponent: Team that revolved around their quarterback, had one BIG target at wide receiver, lack of a running game, and an exotic defense that employed a bend-but-don't-break philosophy.
- Line: Favored by 7.
- Over/Under: 46.
Let's hope they take it the rest of the way.
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