I don't want to hear about how fierce the hitting was in the Flyers series and how the team that won -- in this case, the Penguins -- will be too beat up to play well in the following series.
First of all, the Flyers series ended last Saturday. The first game of the Capitals series is this Saturday. That gave the Pens a full week of rest and recovery. Plus which, it's not like these guys are you or me. If I faced the Flyers and got checked against the boards for six games, I'd be useless for about a month. But, I'm fat and out of shape. No professional hockey player is, they train all season and during the offseason for the long grind of the postseason. They'll come out firing on all cylinders and won't be "dead" or "tired" or "beat up". They'll be fine. Same goes for the Capitals, who are working on less rest and just played a seven game series. I refuse to believe that they'll be too worn out to get up for the Pens. These are professional athletes and the biggest prize in all of professional sports is at stake. Even if they're dead, they're not dead.
I don't want to hear about how we could've lost the Flyers series. There were long stretches where we were outplayed. We caught some breaks. We had some timely goaltending. But so did they. And, as regular readers know, I hate "What if" people. Basically, they're saying, "If we didn't do the things that caused us to lose, we would have beat you." Or, "If you hadn't done those things that caused you to win, you would've lost." There is money in revisionist history. There is some joy. There are no titles. Not even the 1919 Reds ended up with a title, the Black Sox were just stripped of theirs.
I don't want to hear about how the Penguins beat the fifth seed in six games, but the Capitals were taken to the brink by the seventh seed in seven games. That was last series and has nothing to do with this series.
I don't want to hear about how the Capitals "are hot" because they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win their last series. Guess what? They were cold enough to go down 3-1. If the Rangers had put them away, we'd be talking about Carolina right now. And that was last series, which has nothing to do with this series.
What I do want to hear about is who will win this series and why. Because, in all honesty, I'm not sure one way or the other. I know that the teams are evenly matched. I know that I want the Pens to win. I know that Alex Ovetchkin is one of the five best players in the world. I know that you can also say that about Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. I know that this series will go to seven games. What I do not not, for 100% sure, is who will win.
We're so close to being the Capitals and they're so close to being us that it clouds things.
Against the Flyers this year, I could see that they wanted to be the Broadstreet Bullies, but couldn't. Since they couldn't -- and since Gary Bettman wisely changed the rules after the lockout -- the Penguins won.
Against the Flyers last year, I knew they had too many injuries and we had too much talent.
Against the Rangers last year, I knew that Lundquist was vulnerable and that all we had to do was contain Jagr.
Against the Senators last year, I knew that they had half a roster and made it to the playoffs on fumes.
Against the Red Wings, I thought I knew that we had the talent advantage, but now I'm not so sure.
Against the Capitals this year... it's like we're playing us. Young, talented roster with a veteran supporting cast. Some offensive defensemen and some brawlers. They have more enforcers, but we have more shooters. They have one of the five best hockey players on the planet, we have one of the five best hockey players on the planet. They have an extraordinarily solid goalie that is outshined by the star power at other positions, we have an extraordinarily solid goalie that is outshined by the star power at other positions.
We lean on our stars, they lean on their stars. We can be tough if we need to, they can be tough if they need to. But neither is the game that either team likes to lean on.
However, even if we're two very similar teams, we're not secretly proud of or happy for the other team. And, I know that obviously would never happen with the Flyers, but you have to admit that you were proud of Ottawa for reaching the Cup Final after they beat us in 2006. That won't happen with Pens fans if the Caps win. That won't happen with Caps fans if the Pens win.
I said before that I think this series will go to seven games. Realistically, when you get to Game 7, anything can happen. It also stands to reason that, if you get to a Game 7, the teams are evenly matched.
Three things will turn the tide in this series: Goaltending, Talent, and Coaching.
I trust Fleury more than I trust Theodore or Varlamov. And, in crunch time, when one team needs a huge save to hold the series together... who would you trust more? To make that one, critical, series saving play... you want Fleury, right? Me, too.
Talent is obviously in our favor. They have Ovetchkin, but we have Crosby, Malkin, and Staal. So, one of the best five players in the world against three of the twenty best. Who do you think has the edge?
Coaching. Gotta go against Bylsma here, even though I like him a lot. I think the players are playing hard for him, they're inspired by him, and they want to win for him... and themselves, but I just think that he's in over his head. So, that edge goes to the Capitals.
But that still leaves two of three edges to the Pens, which means that they have the overall edge.
Which means that, home ice or not, they Pens win.
Penguins in 7.
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