Monday, April 27, 2009

Steelers Draft Review 2009

I've been over this and over this in my head. I've looked at the list of guys that we took again and again. I've talked to God knows how many people about it. I've tried to look at the 2009 draft for the Steelers from every angle.

I've tried to find my own angle. But, really, this is all I have: If you're looking for a grade for the 2009 Steelers draft, you have to ask yourself how Ziggy Hood is going to do. If he has a long and productive career, then I think it gets a B. If, like I think will happen, he ends up being the next Chris Hoke, then the draft gets a C.

(This is not to say that I dislike Chris Hoke. This is only to say that I think of Hoke as a capable back-up and that's it. If we drafted Hoke in the first round, you would be disappointed in the pick. And I would be disappointed in the pick. So let's hope Hood isn't the next Hope.)

Now, I've claimed before that it was only a matter of time until Tomlin took over the team -- and the defense -- and LeBeau and the 3-4 quietly stepped aside. I don't think Tomlin would force LeBeau out, but I also think that LeBeau knows that he can't coach forever. I've been predicting that LeBeau would step aside for some time now, but I really do think that it happens after the 2009 season.

Tomlin is now established. He's won a Super Bowl. This is his team. He's put his stamp on it. Just like when Ron Erhardt ran the offense for Cowher, then stepped down, I think LeBeau will step down now that Tomlin is ready. It's just a hunch. It hasn't happened yet. It probably won't happen until after the season. But I think it happens. And I think that LeBeau is the kind of guy that won't hang on too long. Or, really, won't retire in March 2010 and not tell anyone.

Two years ago, I was afraid that we didn't have the personnel to support the 4-3/Cover 2 defense. Now, with Hood, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, the aging of Keisel, Hampton, and Smith, and the fact that James Harrison can play any position in the 4-3, depending on down and distance, I think our current personnel is holding us back from making the switch.

I'm fine with another year of the 3-4. Especially since we've got the league's best defense. But, I really believe we need to move -- and have been moving towards -- the 4-3.

I personally don't think that Hood is a good fit in the 3-4 at any position in the front seven. Some people whose opinions that I respect have said otherwise. But, I really think his first, best destiny -- and what is going to save this draft class from being an average draft class -- is nose tackle in the Cover 2. I think that he will destroy people, probably end up going to the Pro Bowl a number of times, and possibly end up in the Hall of Fame if he gets to work in the Cover 2. If he's forced to work in the 3-4 that the Steelers run, then he's the next Chris Hoke.

Now for the rest of my draft and the rest of my thoughts...
  1. I think that they filled a lot of needs and, overall, had a really good draft. Not a lot of star power, but I think they picked up a lot of good contributors.
  2. I'm glad they didn't reach for a guard or a tackle in the first round, because there were no guys with a first round (or even middle of the second round) grade on them by the time they drafted. And, really, it made sense for them to get out of the second round for the same reason.
  3. Kraig Urbik is the kind of guard that we draft. Let's hope he makes it and learns how to pass block. That's not his longsuit, so that's why he was available in the third round.
  4. Mike Wallace is another Nate Washington. Hopefully we get the same production out of Wallace that we got out of Washington before he left. And, hopefully, some team is dumb enough to throw $27 million at him when his contract is up.
  5. I think Keenan Lewis is a better fit if we go to the Cover 2, but I think he'll still be a solid contributor.
  6. I obviously like Joe Burnett enough to have predicted that the Steelers would draft him. Again, he's a better Cover 2 guy, but he'll go on my tomb stone with Brian St. Pierre as a guy that I pegged the exact round and spot that he'd be drafted. It's rare company to be in, so I hope he lives up to it.
  7. Frank Summers is a big back, which we needed. He's tough to tackle and he'll get some goal line and short yardage carries, which we needed. Basically, he's like Jerome Bettis, only shorter and not as nimble. For that reason, my buddy Topher has already come up with a nickname for him: Short Bus. Let's hope it sticks.
  8. Ra'Shon Harris is a better Cover 2 defensive tackle and I don't think he makes the team this year. But, hey, we're the defending Super Bowl champions. Not all of these guys could have expected to make the 53 man roster, right?
  9. I like AQ Shipley a lot. He was on my radar, but I thought he'd be gone by the time the Steelers thought about the center position again. As it turns out, he was the first guy they thought of enough to select, so he's the guy. But, he has extraordinarily short arms and probably won't make it. His arms are 29 inches long and he's 6'3". My arms are longer. You need long arms to play on the offensive line in the NFL. That's just how it works nowadays. I really hope he makes it, but I'm not convinced. Maybe he hangs on long enough to contribute something in a blowout victory or when we're resting our starters late in the season. All I know is that Mike Mayock said that he watched film of the Rose Bowl in order to scout the Southern Cal linebackers and said that Shipley kept showing up on the film, knocking all those guys to to the turf. They all got drafted in the first three rounds. Hopefully, that foretells great things about Shipley and he's the next great Steelers center. I seriously doubt it, but I have great hopes.
  10. With David Johnson, I really think they were picking names out of a hat at that point in the draft. With 15 picks until Mr. Irrelevant was chosen, I'm sure they had other things occupying their attention. And it showed. The last thing we need is another tight end that can't really block. And that's Johnson. So, I think he gets cut and misses out on the opportunity to become the next Bruce Davis.
The underlying issue of this draft was that we're the defending Super Bowl champions, so we don't have a lot of holes to fill. We drafted nine guys and we'll sign another ten free agents. They all have long odds to make the roster. There's a lot of talent on our team. There's no shame in that.

The Patriots have been criticized in recent years for not drafting well. I think it's that they had so much talent on their roster and couldn't take an unproven guy over someone they knew and trusted.

Therefore, you can't judge this draft class on playing time and starts. You have to judge them on quality guys that they drafted that ended up making a contribution. By that measure, I think the Steelers get an A on this one.

Provided that Ziggy Hood holds up his end of the bargain, that is...

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