Pens and Buccos

Regarding the Penguins:

Well, there you go. Fleury had his best game since the overtime win against the Red Wings in last year's Final and we escaped Philly -- and that crowd -- with a win. Pretty much all we needed to do was split the two road games. We did that, so I would say that it looks good for us to win the series.

But, we also had all we could handle from the Flyers last night. Like I've said before, they're a great team, they're just not as good as the Penguins. And that's going to be the difference in the series (as it has been thus far).

And I hope the Rangers beat the Capitals, but I don't want to look too far ahead. The Capitals are the team that scares me the most in the Eastern Conference.

Regarding the Buccos:

I'm cautiously optimistic. It's still only April and they're still the Pirates, but, they also are in a position to sweep the formerly 11-1 Florida Marlins today, so that's awesome.

Bill James developed something called Pythagorean Winning Percentage and BaseballReference.com uses it and I think it's right up there with OPS as far as easy-to-understand and relevant baseball statistics. It basically shows whether teams are lucky or good. Well, the Pirates are currently 8-6 and the PWP says they should be 9-5. While that's not a huge difference, one game is actually pretty big 14 games into the season. And, it suggests that they've been good, not lucky. Actually, they've been better than their record, they've just been unlucky.

I'll need to see them keep this up through at least May before I start getting my hopes up at all. And they need to start winning some games in the division for it to be really worth anything. But, I think there's a chance that .500 is possible this season.

Now, I know that sounds crazy, but hold on. This next thing is even crazier.

I think that the Pirates should pursue .500 as though it were a playoff spot. They have plenty of prospects, they have plenty of money to spend, and they have the ability to manufacture a quality closer at a moment's notice.

If they're within a few games in July, I think they should go for it. It's not as though they can screw themselves up too badly, as long as they don't go for a big time player -- maybe just a couple of bats or a solid guy for the rotation, if they think they need one.

And, realistically, how could you get much worse than 16 straight losing seasons? I think ownership would be very pleasantly surprised by the attendance numbers if they just tried to win games in August and September. I know that the Steelers generally dominate those months, but people would show up at the ballpark on non-bobblehead and non-fireworks nights if they knew they were going to see a competitive game.

At this point -- and it's painful to say this -- a .500 season would be as much of a victory as making the postseason. I'm telling you, if the Pirates can keep their heads above water deep into August and September, people will get behind this team. There are a ton of dormant Pirates fans out there, just like there were a ton of dormant Pens fans out there.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Steelers are the only team that will sell out their games regardless of how well they're doing. But, they only play four (or, if we're lucky, five) months out of the year, which leaves the other seven months for the Pens and the Buccos. We'll hold up our end of the bargain by going to the games and supporting the team as long as they hold up their end of the bargain by not sucking.

Anyone that thinks differently is just being uncautiously pessimistic.