The Season That Has Been

Now that I've had a chance to catch my breath during the bye week, I decided to take a look at 2009 thus far on offense and defense.

A lot of people, myself included, have been critical of the Steelers to this point because they (and me) can't understand how a team that won the Super Bowl in 2008 (we won Super Bowl XLIII, by the way, I'm not sure that I mentioned that ) could struggle as much as they've struggled.

I took a look at the numbers and discovered a couple of interesting things.

1. Good God, how did we win a championship last year?
2. Given #1, I guess things aren't that bad this year.

After seven games in 2008, the Steelers were 5-2.

After seven games in 2009, the Steelers were 5-2.

Sure, you can say that they faced the toughest schedule in NFL history last season. But, we won games against Jacksonville, the hated Ravens, the Browns, the Bengals, and Texans and lost games against the Eagles and Giants. Among the teams that we beat in the first seven games in 2008, only the hated Ravens were any good. In 2009, the only team we beat that was any good was Minnesota.

One issue that I have identified with the 2009 Steelers is special teams, both in terms of the return game and coverage ability. They have pretty well sucked in 2009. Well, they pretty well sucked in 2008. In all actuality, we're better off this year than last year because this year we have Vulva instead of Bitch Merger or the guy that was so bad that he was cut in favor of a gimpy Bitch Merger. I... think his first name was Paul. At any rate, we're actually better on special teams this year than we were last year. As sad as that may be, as much of a point of consternation as it continues to be, we still won the Super Bowl last year with crappier special teams, so we can't call it an issue.

The defense. It was first in points allowed, first in yards allowed, first in passing yards allowed, second in rushing yards allowed, and was historically good. Hey, can't have that two years in a row. Right now, it's 10th in points allowed, eighth in yards allowed, 15th in passing yards allowed, and second in rushing yards allowed. It's not historically good, but it's pretty damn good. The trouble is that they're on pace to force 21 turnovers (29 forced last year) and get 43 sacks (51 last year). Game by game that's not too much, but over the course of a season it adds up.

But, the offense is way better. Last year, they were 22nd in yards per game. That's not a misprint. Last year, they were 20th in points per game. They had the 17th-best passing attack and the 23rd-best rushing attack. Last year, hands down, we rode that historically good defense all the way to the championship. People tend to view championship teams through rose-colored glasses, so that's a good reality check. This year? We are 14th in points scored, fifth in passing yards, seventh in total yards, and 17th in rushing yards.

So, the issue is that we're gaining tons of yards but we choke in the red zone, right? Well, I've said that. And, thus far, I am wrong. Last year, we scored touchdowns on 55.1 percent of red zone trips and 58.62 percent of the time in goal-to-go situations. This year, we're scoring touchdowns 56.52 percent of the time in the red zone and 71.43 percent of the time in goal-to-go. Um... I'd have to say that's not the issue.

Really, ultimately, it's the fact that we've choked in the fourth quarter on offense, defense, and special teams (except last week). Stats back that up. We gave up 75 points in the fourth quarter last year and scored 104 points. This year, we've already allowed 62 points and have only scored 30. Ouch. That's bad. Is it fixed? I don't know. It was against the Vikings, I know that. Hopefully, there were just some early season bumps against the Chargers, Bengals, and Bears. Hopefully.

It's a different year. It's a different team. As Tomlin says, we haven't identified the personality of this team yet. I do know that two of the big issues from last season -- sacks allowed and rushing yards gained -- are trending in the right direction this season. Roethlisberger is on pace to throw the ball 535 times this year and get sacked 48 times. Last year, he threw it 506 times and was sacked 51 times. Last year, we averaged 3.7 yards a carry. We're averaging four yards a carry this year.

Special teams are slightly better, the offense is much better, and the defense is not one of the greatest defenses ever to take the field. Considering that we won the Super Bowl last year (you're sure I mentioned that already, right?) I think we're in good shape.

So... why do I still feel uneasy? I have a theory. External factors have changed.

Last season, expectations were low. We had gotten bounced out of the first round of the playoffs the previous season and were facing the toughest schedule in NFL history. This season, expectations were high. We won the Super Bowl and were facing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history.

Through seven games last season, the Colts were struggling at 3-4 and the Patriots were without Tom Brady. There were no undefeated Broncos teams. There was no offensive juggernaut like the Saints. There was only the New York Giants, who many Steelers fans legitimately believed we would've defeated if we had a punter that was worth a damn and James Harrison wasn't our long snapper.

Brady's back and the Patriots beat the Titans -- a team we needed overtime to beat -- by 59 points. Indianapolis is 6-0 and is crushing people.

More teams have more buzz, but we have the ring. And the bullseye on our chests. And that's the difference.

Need more perspective? At this point in 2006, we were 2-5. I think we're OK in 2009.

Steelers vs. Vikings Review

Well, I was wrong. I said that the Vikings would win and they did not. I am always happy when I predict the Steelers to lose and I am wrong. I think I may predict them to lose the rest of the season and be pleasantly surprised when they win.

What I thought was interesting was that the 2008 Steelers beat the 2009 Vikings today. And it was weird. Because these are the 2009 Steelers. I wasn't quite sure how to react.

The Good:

1. Well, we won. That's awesome.
2. We defeated the undefeated Vikings, arguably one of the best teams in the league, to say nothing of the NFC.
3. We held Adrian Peterson in check, for the most part. Any time we face an elite running back, we shut him down as a runner, but seem to forget about him when he becomes a receiver. Obviously, there was no defense for the play that the announcers gushed about in the fourth quarter, where William Gay failed to rise above his name. But, really, you still need to keep your eyes on the most explosive playmaker in the NFL wherever he goes. If he becomes a receiver, he's actually more dangerous, because he's already in the open field where he can do a ton of damage. But, we contained him as a running back. Which was key.
4. MAN, did the defense come through. The entire fourth quarter, I felt like a poor kid at Christmas. I felt as though I was going to get what I wanted, but didn't really believe that it was going to happen. In 2008, I would've been confident that someone was going to make a play to pull it off. In 2009, I was like a poor kid at Christmas.
5. Well, Tiny Tim threw away his crutches, walked, then did a double-back-flip-somersault and vaulted right to his XBox 360 and played Rock Band while listening to his 32-gig iPod touch. Wow. Just, wow. Just a very impressive performance by the defense in the fourth quarter.

The Bad:

1. We choked in the red zone. Big time. We ended up with two field goals and a turnover in three trips to the red zone. Without two defensive touchdowns, that comes back to kill us.
2. We seemed unable to throw anything but a screen pass in the first half. Until that last drive at the two minute warning, Ben had 12 attempts and 35 yards passing. That's abysmal.
3. Rashard Medenhall had a crucial fumble. Again. He's looked great at times and he appears to be the running back of the future, but he really needs to get his fumble issues in check.
4. How many pre-snap penalties did we have on offense and defense? A hundred? It sure seemed like it.
5. We didn't make strong adjustments at halftime. If the Vikings hadn't gift-wrapped two fourth quarter defensive touchdowns to us, we would have lost (I know that's like saying "if you hadn't done that thing that made you win, we wouldn't have lost," but it's still true.)

The Ugly:

1. We didn't take advantage of superior field position in the first half.
2. Our coverage units -- I know the announcers called out Jeff Reed, but everyone was to blame for Percy Harvin's touchdown return -- are not good. We need to work on that.
3. Our return game isn't much better. I know that I've been critical of Stefan Logan all season, but there's a good reason for that. He's been absolutely terrible. The field position swing that we were looking for when we kept Logan on the team depends on Vulva punting better than Bitch Merger, but it also depends on Logan averaging more than two yards a return. And not fair catching inside the ten yard line. And, generally, not sucking. He has failed to not suck thus far. And that needs to improve.
4. They ran 75 plays, we ran 46. Jesus.
5. We outlasted them, we outhustled them, but they have to believe they should've won this game. And they didn't. And that will sting them. And, should we meet them in February, they will remember this. And be pissed about it.

Ultimately, though, we won and they lost. We're 5-2 and share first place with the Bengals, who currently have the tiebreaker on us and share a 1 1/2 game lead over the hated Ravens with us. We head into the bye week with a four game win streak and the (at the moment) undefeated Broncos on the horizon -- and don't think they want to beat the Defending Champs in order to prove their legitimacy -- and the division-leading Bengals after that.

It doesn't get any easier coming up, but today feels good. So let's focus on that. The Steelers won. It's a good day.

Also... my brother got engaged today! I found out at the tail end of the third quarter, so my attention was divided between the game and Weidman and I planning the bachelor party, but it's great news. Congrats, Bruddah!

We are going to kill you in New Orleans. Just know that.

Jeff Reed

I wanted to make a separate entry for this.

When I first heard that Jeff Reed was arrested after Sunday's game, I thought, "Crap. That means he'll be suspended by the team for the next game." Sure, that also meant that Matt Spaeth would be suspended, because he played a part in the altercation with police and was also charged, but, uh, he's Matt Spaeth.

Then it came to light that Reed would not be suspended. And I thought that was strange. Santonio Holmes got suspended for getting arrested in 2008 and it turned his season around. So, I figured that was team policy. Get arrested, get suspended. I guess that's not the case.

Now, I trust Mike Tomlin. I think that he's a very reputable man and a stand up guy. When he explained that he suspended Santonio because he didn't have enough time to gather information before game time. News of the Holmes arrest hit on 10/24/08 and he was suspended for the following game against the Giants on 10/26/08. Tomlin announced the suspension on 10/25, one day after the news broke.

Reed was arrested on 10/18/09 and it was announced that he wouldn't be suspended on 10/20/09... two days later. So, two days is enough time to gather information, but one day is not? Sure, Holmes got arrested two days before kickoff, which is much different than getting arrested eight hours after kickoff for the previous week's game, but it seems like there is a double standard in play.

This is not to suggest that it's a race issue, because I don't think it is. I think it's a value issue. Even though the kicker position is largely reviled in the NFL, it's still a very valuable position. This decision means that Reed is more important to the team than Holmes. This decision means that, even though Reed got arrested and was clearly in the wrong, he has the advantage when he and the team go to the bargaining table before free agency starts and after the season ends.

I'm not sure that they played this right in terms of negotiation tactics, but I think they made the right decision if they're interested in winning the game on Sunday, which they obviously are.

Browns Review and Vikings Preview

Well, I'm sorry. It's been a long couple of weeks and I have been under the gun in several key areas, most notably at work, where I've had all this work stuff to do and haven't been able to devote as much time to my blog.

Thoughts about the Cleveland game:

1. We had 557 total yards, they had 213 total yards. And we only beat them by 13. At home. In a division game. Where we figured we'd be able to gain ground on the Bengals and the hated Ravens.
   
2. Part of the reason we didn't score as much as the yards would indicate is that we had four turnovers.
3. But, we also forced three turnovers.
4. And we got crushed on special teams.
5. And we sucked in the red zone.
6. And we really, really sucked in goal-to-go situations.
7. I have a feeling that the red zone and goal-to-go issues will sort themselves out over time, but we were supposed to re-gain our special teams advantage after Vulva came back and Stefan Logan joined the team. Thus far, Logan has not turned his preseason success into regular season production. And that's hurting the Steelers. The good news is that Vulva is as good as ever.
8. I still feel uneasy in the fourth quarter.
9. Other teams still have that look in their eye like they might come back in the fourth quarter.
10. We should have defeated the Browns and Lions by more than 21 points total in back-to-back weeks.

Now the Minnesota Vikings come to town. I wrote in August (scroll towards the bottom) that Favre signing with the Vikings was going to assassinate their season. Well, thus far, that prediction isn't working out so well. But, it's early in the season. The Jets started out 8-3 last season before Favre got hurt/imploded like he always does and they ended up missing the playoffs. He can still assassinate their season. I just don't think it happens Sunday. Partially because Sunday's game isn't important enough to kill the season for either team. Partially because I don't think that he's going to be the reason they lose (if they lose at all).

Here's the thing: I actually think that, top to bottom, we have the better team. I think that they have their stars, we have our stars, and, ultimately, our team outweighs their star power. I also think that cohesion and team-outweighing-star-power advantage means a lot more in December and January when everyone is freezing and exhausted. But, that also means that they're fresh right now.

Brett Favre took the offseason off, didn't have all the reps and the throws and the hits and even the preseason to wear on his body, so he's not worn out. Adrian Peterson had the offseason to rest and recuperate, he only has 120 carries thus far this season, and he's young, so he doesn't wear down quite so easy, but he does tend to hit a wall of sorts around Week 14 when the fantasy football playoffs kick into high gear.

Overall, I think our offensive line actually holds an edge over their defensive line, because the Williamses (Pat and Kevin, the defensive tackles) don't seem to be as effective since they tested positive for banned substances and Jared Allen can be run on, as he's always trying to get to the quarterback and mostly ignores the running back. I also think that, if we choose to, we can be successful doing some running back screens. We used to throw them to Willie Parker all the time. We can bring that back. We can throw a few to Mendenhall. We don't have to keep throwing bubble screens to Hines and Heath. If we take the time to set up a screen, I think we can be successful.

Our defensive line is better than their offensive line. Early on in his career, Peterson's line made him look better. At this point, he's making his line look better. They're not pulling and trapping as well, they're not blowing people off the ball, and they just don't, in general, seem to be as interested in blocking people anymore because, well, Adrian is just going to juke the defender and run by him.

I think our receivers are better than their receivers. I think our receivers are better than their defensive backs. I think our defensive backs are better than their receivers. Our linebackers are better than their linebackers (even though it's close). I think Roethlisberger, at this point, is a better quarterback than Favre.

As I said, I think we're the better team top-to-bottom. The only place where they have a decided advantage is in special teams, where Percy Harvin is way better than Stefan Logan. He's way better than everyone in the league not named Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs.

So, the Steelers are at home, they have the better team, and they have a history of stopping elite running backs, so that means they'll stop Peterson, the home crowd will take over, and they'll win the game, right?

Well, that sounds all well and good, but the fact remains that the Vikings have the number two scoring offense in the league (31.5 points per game) and the number 18 scoring defense in the league (20.2 points per game), while the Steelers have the 14th (23.3) and 11th (18.7), respectively. The Steelers are much more impressive in terms of their yardage rankings, but Minnesota goes out and gets it done.

They also have luck on their side. They complete Hail Mary passes to the back of the end zone with 12 seconds left. They blow 21 point fourth quarter leads, mismanage the clock, and their opponent still misses a field goal. As of right now, they're cool, calm, collected, and extremely lucky. And talented. And confident. And they want to make a statement against the defending champs. And they all love Brett Favre at this point and they'll believe anything he says, like when he tells them they can win this game.

I also don't think that Brad Childress is a good coach, but he hasn't killed them thus far.

This is one of those midseason "statement games" that teams that are trying to establish themselves try extra-special hard to win. We had two in a row in 2004 and won both of them against the Patriots and Eagles. We lost our statement game against the Giants last year, but won statement games against the Patriots and Cowboys.

The point is that regular season statement games don't really mean that much. And veteran teams like the Steelers understand that. But, they also understand that all wins are important. So, they'll probably fall behind by a couple touchdowns, make a furious comeback in the fourth quarter, and eventually lose on a play that may or may not be considered fluky.

I think the Steelers are the better team, they'll be the better team if these two clubs meet in February, and they're more complete overall, but that the Vikings are the team that wins this game in late October. They win this game because it means more to them than it does to the Steelers. They win this game because they want it more. They win this game because, at this point, they're the better team.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Steelers 24

Steelers vs. Browns Preview

As I've written previously, the Bengals are like the younger brother of the Steelers. We can hate on them, but, ultimately, we think that they're cute when they try really really hard.

To extend the metaphor, the Browns are the middle brother. We know their strengths, we know their weaknesses, we know where they came from, and we know how to handle them if they suddenly decide to get squirrely. In recent history, we've beaten them unmerciful.

We've won the last 11 games against the Browns. We kept them from winning the division in 2007 and we beat the mighty Kelly Holcomb in the playoffs in 2002. Between their rebirth in 1999 and today, we're 18-3 against them and the last time they beat us was October 2003. I had just gotten married at that point. That's a long time.

This season, they're 1-4, they traded Braylon Edwards for a bunch of guys that Eric Mangini likes, and we're 3-2. Last season, we won the Super Bowl. We've won two Super Bowls (seriously, we won Super Bowl XL and XLIII, don't know if I threw those facts out any point) since they last beat us.

Given recent history, I don't think there's any way that they win this game. I picked the Steelers in my Survivor Pool and I am not at all nervous. I think that we win, but I think it's going to be a close game.

I know they suck. I am aware of this fact. I'm aware of the fact that they defeated the opprobrious Bills 6-3 only because they put their closer in with the bases loaded in the eighth inning. I know that starting quarterback Derek Anderson was 2-for-17 with only 23 yards and an interception in their last game. I also know that they played the Bengals tough and the Bengals, whether we like it are not, are leading the division currently, they beat us, and they're 3-0 in the division. The Bengals are a good team, so help me, and the Browns gave them a game.

I would also like to add that the "rivalry" that exists between the Browns and the Steelers is mostly on the side of Cleveland. They hate us. We always win. We've won six Super Bowls and they have never been. That hate is valuable. That hate is palpable. That hate is something that Magini can use to make a game of it on Sunday.

I also think that the defense is going to need to adjust to the loss of Aaron Smith and the re-addition of Troy Polamalu. I think that, ultimately, Smith's loss is going to be our gain, but I think that's in the long term. In the short term, the defense is going to be disoriented -- even more than they've been thus far -- and they're going to give up gaps and make mistakes. In the short term, they're going to expect Troy to come flying in, but, in the short term, he's not going to be well enough and adjusted enough to do that. Everyone needs time when they come back to the office from a vacation to get re-adjusted and football players are no different.

I think that they score on us quite a little bit and possibly Joshua Cribbs scores on a return. But, I think that we're too much better from top to bottom to lose a game to a team that's crazed and pissed off and that's it. They're not anywhere near as talented as we are and that will prove itself out throughout the course of the game.

This game is extremely important to the Cleveland Browns, but it is also important to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They know how important it is to show up for division games. They know how important it is to not host Minnesota next week at .500. They know they can't fall behind the pace in the division.

The Steelers will take care of business on Sunday, but it won't be easy. It won't be as easy as the 14 point line (which is ridiculous, by the way) seems to suggest.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 21.

Steelers vs. Lions Review

Well, I was in Seattle and didn't catch the game because I was taking a tour of Underground Seattle.

It's actually a very cool tourism destination with enough different, fun things to do that pretty much anyone can go there and find something interesting to occupy their time. They're still bitter about that whole Super Bowl XL thing (which the Steelers won, by the way), which isn't cool, but I ran into a lot of very nice people and had a ton of great food.

From what I heard, the Steelers looked great in the first three quarters, then almost choked everything away in the fourth quarter. The hell you say! The more I think about it, the more I think the theories that I have about the Steeler defense are correct.

I would like to take this opportunity to also point out that star defensive lineman and former Pro Bowler Aaron Smith was placed on injured reserve today.

That doesn't help, but it may be helpful to get some youth infused on that line, see what Ziggy Hood can do, or possibly Nick Eason. I think there will be a dropoff, of course, because Aaron Smith is really, really good at what he does. But the silver lining there is that both Hood and Eason are about 15 years younger than Smith, so at least they'll be consistent. They'll be consistently worse than Smith at the beginning of the game, but they'll still have plenty left in the tank in the fourth quarter.

This is not to say that we should hope that all members of the over 30 gang get hurt, it's just to say that Smith getting hurt now and getting put on IR now will suck less than, say, him getting hurt and getting put on IR towards the end of the 2007 season. That was disastrous. This is just highly inconvenient. And, who knows, if Hood goes in and plays great, that could mean that the 2009 draft class was a success. Mendenhall is starting to bail out the 2008 class, Vulva, Gay, and Timmons (sounds like a malpractice firm that only goes after OBGYNs) bailed out the 2007 class, and Hood, Joe Burnett, and Mike Wallace could make the 2009 class not so bad.

Ultimately, the personality of the team is changing. Tomlin has said numerous times that every season is different, every season has its own personality, and everything develops in its own time.

This team is very different from the 2008 team, obviously, but we're not sure what the personality of it is yet. All I know is that we aren't likely to see another 13-9 victory or a 10-6 victory, or a 15-6 loss. We have already allowed 20 or more points in a game three times (three times in a row, actually) and we only did that five times total in 2008. But, we've also scored 28 or more points twice (again, in a row) and we only did that four times all of last season.

The team is changing, the personality is forming, and we should have a better idea of where they are and what they're like by the time the bye week rolls around.

It'll be interesting to see how they deal with a fiesty, but crappy adversary (Cleveland) and a team that has looked great so far but maybe leans on the running game too much and won't be able to count on their quarterback as the season wears on (Minnesota).

After that, we get a frisky Broncos team and a revenge game against the Bengals. The next month or so will determine the course of the season and the personality of the team. I'm looking forward to seeing how they respond and how everything shakes out.

I'm really, really scared that it might be bad, but I'm looking forward to it.

Steelers vs. Lions Preview

Seriously? It's the Lions.

Thus far this century, they're 41-107. That's a .277 winning percentage. That means that, on average, they're 4-12 since 2000. That's worse than the Pirates.

I know they're at home.

I know we're the defending champs and we have a bullseye on our chests.

I know they signed Larry Foote and he knows our defense inside and out.

I also know that Troy should be back for this game.

I also know that the players know they won by ten last week and aren't satisfied (for the most part).

I also know that the Lions have won 11 out of their last 52 games. They went 0-16 last season.

I know we choked away a loss against the Bengals, but this is a less talented team than the one the Bengals have.

Just trust me. We're 10 1/2 point favorites on the road.

I think we cover.

I think we make Matthew Stafford our bitch.

I think we roll.

I think I said this for the Bengals game.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Lions 13

Steelers vs. Chargers Review

First of all, I would like to point out that I am now 13-1 overall and 4-0 against the San Diego Chargers. You're welcome.

Second of all, I would like to point out the following: The Steelers were up 28-0 and 35-14 at different points throughout the course of this game, but neither myself nor anyone in the stadium felt completely comfortable that the outcome of the game was secured until Jeff Reed kicked a field goal with 43 seconds remaining.

Sure, the Stefan Logan fumble was fluky play. Sure, if you're a Chargers fan, you feel as though there's no doubt that the play called on the field was accurate and that it was a fumble recovered for a touchdown. Sure, if you're a Steelers fan, you feel supremely violated by the refs. The point is that the play was challenged, the refs took a look at it, and were unable to conclusively overrule the play as called. If it was called down by contact, they probably couldn't have overruled that, either. So it was close.

Sure, the Chargers recovered an onside kick, which almost never happens.

But what we can take away from this Steelers victory are the following points:

1. We won by ten points in a game that we dominated and everyone was upset about it.
2. When Jacob Hester scored on the aforementioned fumble recovery, there was a loud popping sound that could be heard in Heinz Field and that popping sound was the sphincters of everyone in the stadium puckering.

When that fumble happened and the Chargers looked unstoppable on offense, everyone -- everyone that stayed, that is -- had the same thoughts running through their heads. "Ah, crap. Not again. This is not happening again. Is this happening again? I think it's happening again."

Consider:

1. We had 510 yards of total offense. I had to check the box score, I'm not going to lie. I have to admit, though, that I thought the number was higher. At the end of the third quarter, I seriously thought we had 500 yards of total offense.
2. Through the first three quarters, we held the vaunted Chargers offense to seven points. Seven.
3. We had 177 yards rushing. Of those 177 yards, 165 came from a guy that a number of people had labeled as a bust and that Mike Tomlin had benched the week before.
4. Given all that, we felt the need to run a trick play on first and goal from the six to score a touchdown.

Just a weird, weird game. We pushed around a once proud defense. We kicked the hell out of the prohibitive favorite to win the AFC West entering the season. And we felt bad about it. And, yet, we were justified.

This brings about two key questions that seek to set the collective minds of Steeler Nation at ease:

1. Is the running game back?
2. Can we trust the defense?

Well, for number one, I really don't know. The offensive line looked good, Mendenhall looked sharp, but the Chargers were undermanned and we were fired up. Really, Bam Morris or Barry Foster would've looked good given those circumstances.

We're not going to get a real answer in the next two weeks because we play Detroit, then Cleveland, and both of those teams suck.

Then, we play Minnesota. At home. We will know then. For sures. I have circled that date on my calender and I hope the Steelers offensive line has as well.

For number two, I... I have to say no. I think there are a couple of factors in play here.

Factor Number One is that the average age of the defensive line is death, so they're bound to wear down over the course of the game. Even though we only have three defensive linemen, the key to the success of any 3-4 team is the three guys up front. Our three guys up front are old. They're tired. They have two rings each and there's only so much you can do to motivate a guy given those parameters. Even when someone like Mike Tomlin or Dick LeBeau is feeding them the "one game at a time, one play at a time" rhetoric, it only goes so far.

Are they washed up? Are they not worth it? Of course not. When playing to the best of their abilities, they're still really damn good. I think the first three quarters of each of the last three games proves that. They're just old. They're millionaires. They have two rings. I'd get in their faces and yell at them and slap them around, but they're bigger than me.

Factor Number Two is that the offense is starting to come into its own. It's evolving. It's becoming the focus of the team. After all the great drives and clutch plays of the past 23 games (2008 season plus playoffs plus four games this year), the defense has come to depend on the offense. Previously, in 2007 and 2006, they had no one to depend on but themselves. I think you see this happening a little bit with the hated Ravens as well. For years, the defense couldn't let up, couldn't yield, because they'd be writing checks the offense couldn't cash. Now? They have a unibrowed golden boy and they can afford to let this receiver slip by or that tackle go unmade.

I don't like to mention this, but the hated Ravens have a bunch of young guys on defense. Guys that are hungry. Guys that don't have two rings and millions and millions of dollars in the bank. They'll come back angry and hungry because they have unfinished business ahead of them. Our guys? You can't make that same claim about them.

The Steelers are currently among the worst defenses in terms of points in every fantasy league I'm involved in. They're not getting sacks. They're not getting shutouts or keeping points off the board. They're not forcing turnovers. They're not scoring touchdowns. They're also not available as a free agent.

Maybe that's because I live in Pittsburgh and everyone still has faith that they'll turn it around. Maybe that's because everyone's hoping that everything will turn around once Troy comes back (expected to happen this weekend against Detroit!) Maybe, collectively, we're ignoring Factor One and Factor Two.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that the factors I've talked about aren't the issue. I hope it's something else, anything else. I hope that, as Tomlin has said, the personality and makeup of a team develops over the course of a season and this is our early wakeup call. I hope I'm totally full of bullshit and I'm just being reactionary.

But, I don't think I am. And that sucks.

Steelers vs. Chargers Preview

First some thoughts on the implosion against the Bengals:

1. Well, so much for us dominating, eh? Who's the idiot that said that would happen? Oh, right.
2. The running game is not back. We still can't gain four yards on third and three. Still can't gain a foot and a half on fourth and goal. It was the Bengals. I am managing my expectations and not expecting Fast Willie to bust out for 100 yards against the Chargers, or possibly the rest of the season, except for maybe against the Browns or Lions.
3. That last drive by the Bengals was a master stroke. Sure, we shouldn't have coughed up a conversion on fourth and ten to some random white dude, but they made sure by how they managed the clock that they would either win or lose on that drive. Nicely done by them. More than I have come to expect from Marvin Lewis.
4. Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall should not have been called out in the media. Tomlin is using that as a weapon, when he should go all Santonio Holmes on them. Worked out well last season.
5. Speaking of Holmes, he's fighting the ball. That's no good.
6. Speaking of the defense, they miss Troy. That much is obvious. However, they have no excuse for not forcing any turnovers the last two games. This needs to change. Stat.
7. They also need to stop being clutch. They need to bring back the "someone is going to make a play" mentality. I had that mentality as the Bengals were driving for the win. I just assumed we'd stop them. We didn't. I assumed we'd stop Cutler and the Bears in Week 2. We didn't. Therefore, I no longer have that mentality. I hope that's not the case with the guys that actually are supposed to play defense. My mentality matters not. I'm just some asshole with a blog. They need to get their swagger back, because it's currently gone.
8. I seriously believe it's time to pick up Mike Wallace if you play in a deep fantasy league with a lot of roster spots or a lot of teams. He and Hines Ward (and possibly Heath) are the only guys playing out there right now.

For this week... I really don't know. I would trust the 2008 Steelers to win this game. I wouldn't trust them to dominate, but I would trust them to make enough plays to win. Home crowd, two straight tough losses, prime time, this is the kind of situation where they would have shined last year.

I haven't lost faith in the magic of last year, but I have also come to terms with how special last year's run was. We have the same problems this year that we had for most of last year -- especially down the stretch -- but we were able to overcome those problems on shear balls and willpower. I have not seen the balls and willpower thus far this year, with the possible exception of the fourth quarter and overtime against the Titans. And that could've been muscle memory, not balls and willpower.

Philip Rivers is averaging 330 yards a game. He has more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. And Kurt Warner. And really anyone else you can name, because he leads the league in yards per game.

Darren Sproles is a scary player. He doesn't scare me as a ball carrier, but he scares the hell out of me as a receiver. We did, after all, give up a super long passing touchdown to him in the Divisional Playoff round last year, regardless of whether or not the outcome was already decided.

Their defense is frisky, even if I am not starting them in fantasy this week (starting Washington against the hapless Bucs instead). Without Jamal Williams plugging up the middle (he always kills us) we may be able to run, but I wouldn't count on it.

They have a swagger. They expect to win this game. They're ready for us. This is different than an upstart Bengals team playing over their heads. This is a talented team that doesn't have a shred of doubt in their minds that they will be victorious. And that's dangerous.

On the other hand, they have basically the same players and the same coach as 2008. And we pretty much ruled them in two games in 2008. We have basically the same players and the same coach.

It's prime time. It's at home. Tomlin has been beating these guys up on the practice field and in the media. Hopefully, they're angry. Possibly, they're too beat down. I really don't know.

It could be that I was deflated after reading this on ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/3715/trouble-in-steel-town.

There's a lot of issues addressed there. A lot of problems. A lot of things that need to be fixed. Can we fix them? I think we can, but I don't know that we can fix them all in one week. And that's pretty much what we need to do.

If we can fix them, at least for this game, the schedule gets easier. We don't have to play the hated Ravens until November, which is a blessing (and a curse). And, actually, if we were playing the hated Ravens on Sunday night, I'd feel comfortable guaranteeing a victory. Against the Chargers? This Sunday night? I don't.

HOWEVER, I will say this: Weidman and I are going to the game. I am 12-1 and his record is comparable. I am 3-0 against the Chargers, including last year's playoff win. And that's a 3-0 record that spans 15 years and pre-dates Heinz Field.

Still... my predictions have been dead freakin' wrong thus far.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Steelers 13