Steelers-Panthers Review

The Steelers were supposed to win, they won, and they covered the spread. They need one more win over the lowly Cleveland Browns to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs and a first round bye. They looked incredibly effective in the passing game, Ben Roethlisberger went his second game in a row without an interception, and they generally looked like they could do whatever they wanted on offense.

Except score in the red zone, especially in goal-to-go situations. They've scored touchdowns only 44 percent of the time in the red zone this season and that's not going to be good enough against better teams. They need to come out of the red zone with touchdowns instead of field goals.

In my mind, this comes back to lack of creativity in terms of play calling and lack of a power running game. The fact that the Steelers power running game kinda sucks really can't be fixed at this point, but it can't be helped or masked by more creative play calling. Getting Ike Redmond the ball -- either in the passing game or the running game -- when they get inside the 20 is a good start. More screen passes and fewer quarterback draws. Fewer play calls that send everyone into the end zone; since the end zone is the last line of defense, everyone on defense is usually in there, so it's difficult to throw the ball straight into the end zone, but it's relatively easy to throw the ball to a guy who's a few yards outside the end zone and watch him run in.

In general -- and this came out against the Jets -- they've just been running their standard offense all season and haven't adjusted for down, distance, opponent, or made in-game or halftime adjustments. Sometimes the offense works, sometimes it doesn't. Well, that's fine if you have 16 games to tinker with, but in single elimination the level of urgency is raised. I think that the Steelers need to show more urgency and creativity on offense (and maybe a little on defense) to make a deep playoff run. They're obviously not as good as the Patriots, but I think they're definitely the second-best team in the AFC. If someone knocks the Pats off or if the coaching staff comes up with a great game plan when the Steelers face off against the Patriots again -- remember, the Colts trounced the Steelers in their 2005 regular season meeting, but the Steelers came back strong and won the 2005 Divisional Playoff match-up.

But, they've got ten days, a Browns game, then a bye week to work on that, so it might work out OK.

The other thing they need to keep tabs on is the ball. The ball is fairly important. Roethlisberger had two fumbles against the Jets and two against the Panthers. That can't continue into the playoffs. God help me, I agree with Joe Theisman when he says, "The Steelers need to protect the football if they're going to advance in the playoffs. Right now, they're not." It hasn't happened often -- if it's ever happened -- that I've agreed with Joe Theisman, so that must be pretty important.

I saw Aaron Smith on the sidelines on Thursday night. I'm not sure that dropping him back into the starting line-up is the best move at this point. Ziggy Hood is playing great football and Smith -- even if he's the greatest 3-4 defensive end of this century -- hasn't played in a long time. Maybe involve Smith on first and second down and make him part of a rotation, but I don't think he needs to be in there full time anymore. I know it's blasphemy to say that, but I think it's true.

The same is not true for Ryan Mundy and Troy Polamalu. Troy needs to get back in there ASAP, but I don't think he's coming back until the playoffs.

Steelers-Panthers Preview

I have to say that I'm not sure how to be clever about this. It's a game that the Steelers have to win, it's a game that the Steelers can win, and it's a game that the Steelers should win. If they're going to be the #2 seed in the AFC, this is a game they cannot honk.

The Carolina Panthers are like the Oakland Raiders if the Raiders had a less dynamic running back, a crappier quarterback, and an older defense. This is a bad team. At the NFL level, everyone is talented. I've covered this. We know this. But, the Panthers are less talented than every other team in the league.

I've watched bits and pieces of some of their games throughout the season and what I've witnessed has ranged from horrendous to respectable. I haven't seen them play good football at any point this season. I saw the Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, and Browns play good football at various points during the season before they played the Steelers. They are all decent teams and have the potential to be good. Carolina doesn't seem to have a ceiling that even reaches as high as good.

I know that the Steelers are going to play this game on four days rest. But, so are the Panthers. It's not like they've had the past three weeks off to rest and prepare. Sure, the Steelers are only 4-3 at home, but... this is a pretty bad team that they're playing on Thursday night.

I think this is a game that they should dominate, but I'm not sure that this is a game that they will dominate. For this reason, I can't predict them to cover.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Panthers 13

Steelers-Jets Review

This was a tough game to get a handle on, because there was good, bad, and ugly involved.

The Good:

1. Even though the Steelers lost, they still qualified for the playoffs. This team is going to the playoffs. OK? They're going to the playoffs.
2. The hated Ravens won, but they're still in second place behind the Steelers for the division lead. That means that the Steelers are currently the #2 seed, with the #3 and #4 seeds both holding six losses. That means that it would take a pretty serious meltdown by the Steelers for them to lose that seeding -- and both six loss teams would need to win out.
3. It was a great game to watch and the Steelers -- who had no business still being in the game after that safety -- almost pulled out the victory.
4. You have to admire that Sanchez keeper on fourth and one, even if it meant the Steelers let up a touchdown. That was just a great call.
5. Blitz pick-up. I was very impressed for most of the day on how well everyone on the offensive line and the running back kept in to block did in this area.
   

The Bad:

1. With the Sanchez keeper and a few other plays, the Jets used a lot of misdirection and brought basically everything but the kitchen sink on defense. The Steelers... not so much. They kept Roethlisberger in the shotgun to give him more time to throw and ran effectively out of that formation (more on this in a moment), but they really didn't get too fancy. If they're saving the "sizzle" for the playoffs, that's fine. But, they can't expect to win many postseason games with a totally vanilla approach on offense and defense.
2. I didn't like the fact that they handed the ball to Mewelde Moore when they were backed up against their own goal line, which led to the safety. I actually liked the call -- they were running out of the shotgun effectively all day -- but I didn't like the fact that they handed the ball to Moore, not Mendenhall. And, to clarify, they did not run a draw or a delayed draw on that play. It was a handoff from shotgun formation. A draw play -- especially a delayed draw -- is blocked like a passing play and the quarterback waits for a little bit to hand the ball off to the tailback, hoping to take the defensive line out of the play because they're trying to get upfield. That was a straight handoff. I watched the replay several times. It was a good call, but a bad personnel decision. Mendenhall had been making guys miss in the backfield all day and broke a couple of big runs off those misses. He should have had the ball, not Moore.
3. Zero turnovers forced, one sack for zero yards lost. They need to do better than that in bigger games. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game in the playoffs and this team is going to the playoffs.
4. Too many pass attempts deep to the perimeter. There are stats to follow later. But, it looks like Roethlisberger can't plant and throw deep to the sidelines. He's been off target on those passes all season, even before he hurt his foot and his ankle. This either needs to be improved or it needs to stop.

The Ugly:

1. Matt Spaeth. I don't want Heath Miller to rush back, but Spaeth really sucks. He was targeted eight times and only caught three balls for 27 yards, dropping 15 passes by unofficial count. My best guess is that the Jets just left him open, figuring that he'd either drop the ball or that there was no way on God's green Earth that Matt Spaeth was going to beat them.
2. Roethlisberger fumbled twice. He didn't lose either fumble, but that didn't make it any less scary.
3. Not sure where this belongs, but I don't remember thinking, "If only Troy were in the game, he would have totally made a play there." Maybe part of the awesome of Troy is that you never know when he's going to do something totally amazing, but I don't think his absence is why the Steelers lost.

Some Statistics:

I was on this statistics website the other day and found some interesting stuff...

1. This should come as a surprise to no one, but you can't run on the Steelers in any direction. Up the middle, off guard, off tackle, to the outside. Can't run anywhere. Usually a run defense has a weakness, but the Steelers don't seem to have one. Except on the Sanchez keeper.
2. Bryant McFadden has been targeted to the short area -- passes traveling one yard to ten yards in the air -- on his side of the field more than any other cornerback in the league. He's currently allowing only 5.18 yards per attempt in the short area, which is eighth in the league. Targeted more times than any cornerback in the NFL, still solidly in the top ten in terms of performance. He's not allowing a high average per attempt, even if he allows a lot of yards. So, I still think he's good. So there.
3. The Steelers are completing 67.86 percent of their passes to the deep middle -- passes traveling more than ten yards in the air -- and averaging 15.57 yards per attempt. That is an absurdly ridiculous percentage and average. They're completing 40 percent of their passes deep to Mike Wallace's side of the field and averaging 11.24 yards per attempt. They've attempted to the third most deep passes to the right side of the field in the league and seventh most passes to the deep middle. I think they need to switch those rankings and keep throwing to the deep middle until someone stops them. In fact, they can throw to Wallace on a deep post. Just because he starts out on the right side of the field doesn't mean he has to stay there. Something to think about for the balance of the season and the playoffs.
   

Steelers-Jets Preview

Before we get to the preview for the Jets game, quick review of the Bengals game (which will factor into the preview for the Jets game):

1. Defense was hugely, awesomely clutch. They looked pretty average against a strong Bengals offense in the first game, but the stepped up big time last Sunday, outscoring the offense.
2. Which reminds me... the offense sucked. They moved the ball, they looked solid at times, Randle-El made a huge catch, but they were 0-for-2 in goal to go and 0-for-3 in the red zone. That's no good and it will definitely murder them in the future when they start playing better teams. Hey, they play a better team on Sunday. How about that?
3. Kampinos might be OK. He's still a downgrade from Vulva, but he's a MAJOR upgrade over Bitch Merger. I was nervous on the first punt because I didn't know what to expect, but I became less nervous as the game wore on and he continued to punt in a serviceable manner.
   
4. Weidman actually read the preview for last week's game and told me that "wordsmith" is one word, not two. So there you go.

Moving right along to this weekend's game against the Jets...

I actually thought three weeks ago -- when the Jets were 9-2 and on top of the world, before they got crushed by the Patriots and lost a snoozer to the Dolphins -- that the Steelers could beat this team. What kept jumping out at me is that the Jets' offense is based off running the ball and that no one can run the ball against the Steelers. When they've faced a run-oriented team that needs the run to set up the pass, they've beaten that team.

I've also been thinking about the fact that the Steelers have a crappy offensive line and allow too many hits and sacks on Ben Roethlisberger. The Bengals and Bills don't really have a pass rush, but they looked like they were running the 46 defense against the Steelers. The Jets pressure the quarterback really, really well and head coach Rex Ryan has been hailed as a defensive genius. Given those facts, the Jets should finish Sunday with 15 sacks, right?

My issue with that logic is that the hated Ravens are running the same defense and "only" had three sacks a couple weeks ago. Sure, they hit Roethlisberger a lot and Terrell Suggs flexed a lot, but they ultimately didn't have the kind of overwhelming pressure performance that would have totally shut the Steelers down. If a team comes to blitz, the Steelers will be ready for them, crappy offensive line or no crappy offensive line. The lone exception to this rule is the game against the Saints, where everyone on the offensive coaching staff apparently forgot to read this blog and seemed surprised that a Gregg Williams defense was blitzing a lot.

Because Roethlisberger is hurting, he will throw the ball away more. He will try to get out of the pocket and "make something happen" less. This will ultimately help the team.

The problem is that I don't think the Steelers will be able to run the ball, either.

So, you've got two teams that like to stop the run and run the ball and that will essentially lead to a bunch of pads popping and awesomely violent futility.

Which means that it will come down to the quarterbacks. Which means that the Steelers have the edge. They usually do in that situation, which is one of the reasons that they're currently 10-3. But, that's not the whole story.

If this turns into a passing fest, then the outcome most definitely favors the Steelers. Mark Sanchez cannot be trusted to go a full game without screwing something up.

The other side of that coin is that Sanchez does not screw up very often with the game on the line. He tends to rise to the occasion. Ben Roethlisberger also tends to rise to the occasion, but there's one, big difference.

Sanchez has Santonio Holmes and Roethlisberger does not. Holmes plays his best football in pressure situations. He has made big plays in big games and has made little plays into big plays in big games, or in little games at big moments. As much as he might claim that he doesn't have anything against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he has something against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This is why this game can't come down to who has the ball last. I don't care if it's 10-6 with two minutes left or 17-13 or 24-20 or 31-27. I think Santonio and Sanchez will find a way to come through and Holmes will find a way to settle the score.

So, the plan should be to not make it that close, which I think the Steelers can do.

Prediction:
Steelers 20, Jets 10

Steelers-Bengals Preview Take Two

See? That rhymes? I'm such a word smith.

I think the Steelers face the same issues coming into this game as they did heading into the last game. The only comfort is that this game is at home... where the Steelers are 3-2 and they're 6-1 on the road. Maybe scratch that comfort.

The Bengals have dropped nine straight, they gave up 49 points to the Bills, and they threw a way a game to New Orleans last week, so they're not exactly swimming in motivation or confidence right now. They're still designed to beat the Steelers and they still hate us more than we hate them -- this would be a bigger win for Cincinnati than it would be for the Steelers -- so that's a problem.

The only thing I keep thinking about is that they may have even less to play for in this game than a 2-10 team ordinarily would. Normally, the Bengals would be playing for pride and for next season. The players that are under contract would be trying to protect their jobs and the would-be free agents would be auditioning for the next team. Everyone would be trying to impress whoever their coach would be next year -- either the new guy after Marvin Lewis gets fired or the coach of their new team.

I don't think there's going to be a 2011 season and I think the players might realize that, too. If they don't have anything to play for this season, then they don't have anything to play for at all in this game, since there won't be a next season next season. They basically just have their pride. When it's right around freezing outside, possibly snowing, and James Farrior is trying to make orphans of your children, pride tends to take a back seat to sitting on a heated bench in a parka and talking with your team mates about your golf game.

They still hate the Steelers, they still have their pride, but I'm thinking they won't have as much fight in them in the second half. If the first half of Sunday's game turns out like the first half of the first game, then the Steelers should be able to put the Bengals away in the second half. I think that they have sufficient motivation, pride, and talent to do that.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Bengals 7

Steelers-Hated Ravens Review

That was a tough, hard-fought win and a tremendous performance by Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are now firmly in the driver's seat in the division. It would not take an epic collapse for them to lose that position, but they would need to perform well below expectations.

The game was what it was and I'm glad it's over and the Steelers won. I don't want to get caught up in penalty and fine controversy. I just want to move on with the balance of the season. Looking ahead, here's what I see...

1. The loss of Heath Miller is huge. After seeing that hit and seeing him go off the field, I would be shocked if he plays in either of the next two games. With Matt Spaeth also hurt, that leaves only David Johnson. Well, I know he wears number 85 and that his last name is Johnson and I think his first name is David... but the fact that I would need to Google it to be sure is proof enough that the tight end position is unsettled to say the least. I want Heath to come back, but I'm concerned about his health. That was a rough hit. I really just hope that he is OK and that Spaeth comes back soon. Losing Heath gives the Steelers fewer options in the passing game and fewer options in terms of personnel grouping. That's a big hit to the offense, but they should be fine if Roethlisberger is healthy and the receivers stop dropping passes on third down (BIG issue on Sunday night).
2. The loss of Vulva is almost as huge. The Steelers signed Jeremy Kapinos of Penn State fame, but I'm still very concerned. Having Bitch Merger and The Guy Who Replaced Bitch Merger and Was Worse (Paul Edinger? Maybe? Again, if I have to Google it, it's a bad sign) in 2008 really set the team back. That was an epic defense. The Steelers have a very good defense in 2010, but they're not epic. I'm not sure that they can overcome marginal punting without an epic defense and with an offense that still seems to be trying to find its sea legs.
3. Although I don't wish injuries on anyone, I hope Roethlisberger's foot stays kinda broken. He actually threw the ball away when he was supposed to on Sunday night instead of trying to "create" and it worked out great for everyone. So, even when the foot is healed, I would be in favor of Roethlisberger throwing a few more passes away when nothing is there.
4. Flozell Adams? Maybe not such a huge loss. I always said that I hoped he'd get seriously hurt -- it wasn't a matter of if, but only when -- when the Steelers still had time to compensate. It's not like he's an all-world guy. Trai Essex looked comfortable enough and played well enough after Adams left the field and went to the locker room. Maybe just let him stay there, even if Adams is healthy enough to come back.
5. I keep thinking about what this offense would look like if Santonio was still on the team. They'd be pretty awesome, right?
6. Mike Wallace needs to catch more screens. Defenses are playing about 70 yards off the line of scrimmage to his side of the field. He's so damn fast, he's gotta bust one of those for a touchdown, right? Even if he only averages 15 or so yards a reception, cornerbacks will start to creep up on the line and that will open things up deep.
7. The Steelers need to continue to unleash hell in December. They need to keep working to get better. If they can fix some issues, they can get good enough to get lucky and steal a Super Bowl like they did in 2008. If someone, anyone at all, please do it, can knock the Patriots out, the field for the post season appears to be wide open. With the possibility of a bye week and at least one home playoff game, I like those odds. But, really, that's only if someone knocks New England out. They're the 800 pound gorilla in the AFC bracket as long as Tom Brady is alive.
8. This could be their last chance for a while. Even if there's a 2011 season -- and Weidman and I agree that there will not be, but more on this when I'm able to write it up -- Harrison and Smith might retire. Possibly Hines if the Steelers win another championship, as well as Farrior, maybe Foote, possibly Keisel. If there is no 2011 season, I think all those guys retire and put the Steelers firmly in rebuilding mode. Maybe Hampton retires as well. The point is that this is probably this team's last run, so they better make it count.

I think 12-4 and the #2 seed are definite possibilities, but I still have this lingering doubt from the great collapse of 2009. I hope I am just being paranoid.

Steelers-Hated Ravens Preview

I was really going to write a preview and review for the Bills game. Seriously, I was. I was going to try to come up with some clever padding and some extra fluff around the fact that the Steelers needed to win the game and should win the game, then talk about the fact that they narrowly won. But, really, that's so last week.

The past two weeks, the Steelers played the Raiders and the Bills, the hated Ravens played the Panthers and the Bucs. Both teams had to have one eye on this game the whole time, even though the coaches and players will say that they were taking it one week at a time.

This is a huge game. The Steelers have the 2-9 Bengals, the 1-10 Panthers, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the 9-2 Jets. The hated Ravens have the 5-6 Texans, 2-9 Bengals, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the defending champion Saints.

Whoever wins this game probably ends up 12-4 with an excellent chance to become the #2 seed in the AFC. Whoever loses it probably ends up 11-5 and a wild card. The Browns and Bengals are out of it, so this game is for the division title.

Baltimore is at home where they are 5-0, but the Steelers are 5-1 on the road and the hated Ravens already won at Heinz Field, so the home team is not invulnerable by any stretch.

Ray Rice was limited in the first game and is Baltimore's best weapon, but the Steelers held Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Peyton Hillis in check. I think this game will come down to whether or not Joe Flacco can win it. He hasn't done well at all in against the Steelers in the past, but he beat them in October. So there's that.

The thing I keep thinking about is the fact that the Steelers would have won that first game if Ben Roethlisberger was the starting quarterback and he's starting on Sunday night. Roethlisberger would have hit Mike Wallace on a couple of deep balls that Charlie Batch missed and the Steelers would have won 24-17. He's 6-3 in his career against the hated Ravens and Flacco is 2-3 against the Steelers. If it comes down to the quarterbacks, Roethlisberger has the edge.

For the most part, though, the hated Ravens are the hated Ravens because of their hated defense, the hated Ray Lewis, the hated Haloti Ngata, and the hated Ed Reed. This is still a great defense, but it's no longer a defense that scares the hell out of me. It's a defense that likes to blitz and is good at it and Roethlisberger has been vulnerable to the blitz this season, so it's possible that the hated Ravens could break him down on Sunday night. It's also possible that he could bust out of a tackle and hit Wallace deep against a fairly suspect secondary.

If it comes down to a field goal, we know from last week that Shaun Suisham can be trusted on the road. At Heinz Field, I'm still not sure. But, I guess that's tomorrow's problem.

This game is tough to call. Both teams are 8-3. Both teams lost to the Patriots. Both teams snuck by the Bills in overtime. Both teams have tough, physical defenses. Both teams have great quarterbacks and like to run the ball. Both teams hate each other. A lot.

I keep thinking that holding calls and roughing the passer calls, which have plagued the Steelers in recent weeks, might help decide the outcome of the game. That concerns me, but good teams overcome penalties to win.

But, I keep coming back to the fact that the Steelers would have won that game in October if Ben Roethlisberger was under center.

You can take out home field advantage, because it hasn't mattered in the past and neither team thinks they will win or lose based on the venue. You can take out emotion, because both teams are fired up. You can take out motivation, because both teams understand that this game basically decides the division title. You can take out the running game, because both teams can and will take that away. If either team is able to run the ball, the team that is able to accomplish that feat will win. You can take out kickers, because both kickers can be trusted. You can take out special teams, because the Steelers have been solid in that area and the hated Ravens don't have a major threat.

Once you start taking away stuff, you find out that it comes down to quarterbacks. I trust Roethlisberger over Flacco.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, Ravens 17

Steelers-Raiders Review

Well, I was towards the end of a post about this game and it all got deleted somehow. I think I selected all text, then somehow hit delete, then it auto-saved before I could hit Undo. I really don't know what happened.

Cliff notes from that post:

1. It felt good to get a blow-out win after getting blown out against New England.
2. It felt good to blow out the Raiders, even though it's not much of a rivalry at this point.
3. The Steelers should keep throwing and keep blitzing, because that's what seems to work for them. They didn't blitz Tom Brady because the first thing they teach you at defensive coordinator school is that Tom Brady will destroy your life essence and steal the souls of your children if you blitz him. Not blitzing him did not work, so maybe they should blitz him a lot if they meet in the playoffs. When the defense has performed well, gotten sacks, and forced turnovers, they've been blitzing. So... keep up with that.
4. They can't withstand any more injuries to the offensive and defensive lines. Injuries in those areas will catch up with them and be their undoing when they play better teams.
5. While I don't think that the Steelers are being targeted by the officials, I think that the officials are definitely calling tighter games on James Harrison. That could kill the team once they play better teams and once the games get closer (i.e. in the post season).
6. I will not complain about the officiating and blame the officials if that happens, because I live in Pittsburgh and root for the Steelers, not in Seattle and root for the Seahawks. (They're still bitter so I can still be bitter about them being bitter.)
7. Next week is not a trap game. The Bills are squirrely and the Steelers know they have to win all the games on their schedule to keep up with the hated Ravens. If Buffalo wins next week, it's not because the Steelers got caught in a trap. It is because the Bills are sneaky and possibly a decent team.

It's going to be an interesting season. I'm not going to get as excited about the rest of the season as I was depressed about the rest of the season after the Patriots game. It's a long season and I think that... well, it's a process. It's a war of attrition. So, I will continue to evaluate the season as it progresses.

Steelers-Raiders Preview

The problem with this game -- and the remainder of the season -- is that it's difficult/going to be difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy what the Steelers are going to do.

I know that the Raiders are doing better thus far this season than they've done in any nine game stretch to open up the year since 2002. I know that Oakland is the only team that Ben Roethlisberger has never beaten. I know that the Raiders are more talented this year than they've been since 2002.

But, they're still not as good as the Steelers, even with the injuries. Some guys are starting to come back and the guys that are subbing in for the guys on injured reserve have had some time to adjust to a starting role. The Steelers aren't as talented a team as they were in 2008, or maybe even 2009, but they're still more talented than Oakland.

Then there's the fact that everyone's talking about New England giving the rest of the league the "blueprint" for how to beat the Steelers. Well, I think I mentioned in the review for the Patriots game that that's been the blueprint since approximately December 2001. Some teams can use that blueprint because they have the right personnel, some teams cannot. And, in general, New England kicked the Steelers butts all over the field and played considerably better on Sunday night. So... if you're going to say they discovered the blueprint, then the blueprint is really that the way to beat the Steelers is to play way better than them on offense and defense. Taking that the rest of the way, really the blueprint for any team to beat any other team is to play better on offense and defense. It's not really a special thing, it's kind of what every team tries to do.

Still, if you're going to say that the way to beat the Steelers is to spread out the offense and pass the ball 75 percent of the time, then the Raiders just don't have the horses. They have Jason Campbell, not Tom Brady. They have Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bay, not Deion Branch and Wes Welker. They have Zach Miller, not Rob Gronkowski. Maybe not that last one, since Miller's actually better than Gronkowski, but you wouldn't be able to tell that on Sunday night.

Most of Oakland's offense revolves around Darren McFadden and their resurgence as a team this season has gone in line with his resurgence as a player. Historically -- and thus far this season -- any team that needs to run the ball for their offense to work hasn't done well against the Steelers. They're really, really tough to run against, so Campbell is going to have to win the game pretty much on his own. That's possible but not likely.

The Raiders are 24th in the league against the run on defense. The Steelers haven't been able to run the ball well since Week 3, but Week 3 was also the last time that everything was clicking on offense. They kind of padded their stats against Cleveland with a late touchdown, but they still scored 28 points and Mendenhall still rushed for 84 yards. They need to run the ball to set up play action and establish balance on offense in order score a sufficient number of points to win. They scored a sufficient number of points on Sunday night, but they still lost badly because they allowed 39 points on defense.

I don't think Oakland has it in them to score 39 points against the Steelers tomorrow. I just don't. Again, not saying it's not possible, just not bloody likely.

All week, the players and Tomlin have been talking about how they don't want to repeat last year's collapse. Sunday is a good chance for them to back that claim up. There are still two games left in the month of November and the next game is against the 1-8 Bills. If they finish November with two more wins, then the season will be less on the brink, they'll be more confident, and maybe they can finish strong. A loss on Sunday would not kill the season, but it would certainly put it on life support.

My big problem, though, is that I know that the Steelers should be able to run the ball, set up the pass, and score points on offense. I know that they should be able to stop McFadden and frustrate Campbell on defense. I know that they should, but I can't seem to completely convince myself that they will. I was supremely confident heading into the home date against the Raiders last season and that didn't work out so well.

Then, I guess, the other problem is that I'm not sure what my lack of confidence means. Does it mean that the Steelers will win because I'm not overconfident and they're focused on avoiding a collapse? Or does it mean that they will lose because my gut's right and the other shoe is going to drop? Do I predict a loss and hope my prediction is wrong being that I've been wrong most of the season? I predicted a loss last week and was right, but I actually thought the Steelers were going to win. Does that mean I should predict a win so that I'm right even though I think they're probably going to lose? Does it really matter what I think and predict?

So many questions.

The thing is that I only know the answer to one of those questions. The answer to that one is: No, it doesn't matter what I think and predict. Therefore...

Prediction:
Steelers 35, Raiders 14

Steelers-Patriots Review

There are two silver linings, as I see it. The first is that, under NFL guidelines, the Steelers will only be charged with one loss for Sunday night's game. Even though they performed worse than bad, they can still only get one loss from that game. They can't get like a loss and a tie or a credit for another loss that strikes a future win off the books or anything. Just one loss, so that's good. They deserve two or three for that performance, but they are only on the books for one.

The other good news is that everyone else in the division lost, so it's not like the Steelers lost any ground in the division. They may have had their confidence shattered and many fans may still be shell-shocked -- I know I was still pretty angry about the game as of last night, but I'm feeling less angry today -- but, as far as the division standings are concerned, basically nothing happened last week.

Other thoughts are not quite so optimistic. The Steelers just played very, very poorly on Sunday night. There weren't serious problems with their scheme, the Patriots did not provide the rest of the league with a "blueprint" to beat the Steelers, it was just a horrid performance on all fronts. The good news there is that, hopefully, the Steelers can just put the game behind them and focus on this week. There aren't wholesale changes that need to be made to the systems on offense and defense. The bad news there is that the, "Hey, guys, do you think you could just play better? Like, a lot better?" strategy doesn't usually work. Either the players play well or they don't. Just saying, "Play better," a lot doesn't make them better. If that worked, then there would be no bad teams in the league.

The Steelers aren't a bad team by any stretch. They're just not executing well of late on offense and defense. They've had a bunch of injuries and the offensive line may not be able to recover. The defensive line misses Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel in a big way. The offense, in general, is pretty broken and maybe thinking that throwing Ben Roethlisberger back in there would fix everything was like having a child to try to save a bad marriage. Losing Max Starks hurts the team, but at least they're getting healthier at all positions.

The defense didn't fall apart or start sucking overnight, they just didn't play well on Sunday. The idea that the way to beat the Steelers is to abandon the running game and pick them apart in the passing game underneath is not a new idea. Various teams -- especially the Patriots -- have used this strategy very effectively since the turn of the century. Many of the guys the Steelers have on defense have been in the line-up since the turn of the century, so it's unrealistic to think that their odds of actually stopping that strategy would improve with age.

They did a great job of not getting beat deep and punishing receivers underneath in 2008. They did a decent job on that front for most of 2009. The first few games this year, they did an exceptional job. Now, either they're starting to show their age, the injuries are starting to catch up with them, or both.

They're an old team that doesn't have a lot of quality depth. We knew that coming in, but we didn't know if key injuries were going to strike key positions and when those injuries were going to hit. Well, we're only nine games in and there have already been a couple, with the most notable ones to Smith and Starks.

I'm not declaring that the season is over, but I do think that all us Steeler fans now need to adjust our expectations for the season. When they started out hot, the defense looked unstoppable, and we just needed to wait for Ben to come back to have a complete team, a home playoff game and a first round bye looked realistic. They're still well-positioned and they still have three division games left on the schedule to create some separation, but Sunday night really hurt their chances. They also need to recover from the injuries they've suffered thus far and the reserves need to step up now that they're starters. They need to avoid more key injuries, which is pretty much impossible.

All of these things could conceivably happen. This team could have learned a thing or two from their collapse last season. But, they could be waiting for the other shoe to drop. They could have psyched themselves out so bad trying to avoid a collapse that a collapse is now unavoidable.

November is when you either start to pull away and establish yourself or when you collapse. In 2008, the Steelers pulled away and established. In 2009, they collapsed. I'm not sure what 2010 holds in store for the team, but I would put better odds on a collapse (with more injuries) than I would on a pull away/establish.

Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, this is not a complete team at this point. They are a damaged, splintered team and the AFC is too stacked on too many fronts for them to get very far in the playoffs, even if they were to make it. That could change if some pieces come together and reserves step up, but I doubt that it will happen. I'm obviously hoping that it will happen, but it's doubtful.

My father in-law thinks that they're done. He sees another late-season collapse and his official prediction is 9-7, with the Steelers missing the playoffs. Now that it's on the Internet, it's written in stone. I intend to hold him to that prediction, regardless of what happens.

I would say that 9-7 or 10-6 is a fair prediction at this point. But, I guess we'll see.

In other news, the Steelers cut Jeff Reed. I know he was having a bad season thus far, he was inconsistent at best, and he was 0 for 4 from 40-49 yards, which is a range where he's usually automatic. But... I keep thinking they cut him because of his mouth and his antics, not his foot. Sure, I guess there's a joke in there about him putting his foot in his mouth, but we're better than that.

I think it's a mistake for the balance of the season, but I also think that it's going to turn out to be a good move in the long term. Even though he was in a funk this year, he was still about as reliable as any other kicker in the league at Heinz Field, if not more accurate. The Steelers are going to be involved in more close games and they play four of their next seven at home (where they're surprisingly 2-2 and 4-1 on the road). They could've used Reed's accuracy and familiarity with Heinz Field for the rest of the year, then cut him loose at the end of the season.

Suisham -- I ended up Googling just his last name because I couldn't remember if his first name was Shawn, Shaun, or Todd -- isn't an improvement over Reed. He doesn't have a reputation as a clutch kicker and he doesn't have as much experience at Heinz Field. I mean, no one has as much experience at Heinz Field as Reed, but Suisham has played most of his career in the NFC, so he has less than a lot of guys that are out there.

He turns 29 in December, so maybe this is a decent long term move if he works out. I just don't think he's going to work out well enough for it to be worth it long term. So, in addtion to questions about the offensive line, whether or not Hines Ward will retire, whether or not half the defense will retire, and the whereabouts of Roethlisberger's penis, the 2011 offseason will involve the added question of who the Steelers will pick up to replace Reed.

I'm thinking it's a Vulva situation and they draft some dude in the fourth or fifth round. That's a good long term solution if that guy works out and it's a pretty crappy next few years -- Kris Brown, I'm looking at you -- if the guy doesn't.

I guess we will see.

Steelers-Patriots Preview

I'm not sure what to make of this game.

On the one hand, the Patriots aren't the same offense since they traded Randy Moss. They're more of a short passing team that doesn't have a deep threat, so the defense isn't afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have gotten considerably better at crowding the line -- Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are more comfortable playing tighter on the receiver than they are giving up a cushion and they're more effective that way -- and they haven't had given up tons of yards underneath over the past three seasons. Tom Brady used to shred the Steelers by dinking and dunking his was down the field, but I don't think he can do that Sunday night.

On the other hand, the NFL has been big on fining James Harrison and he's really the enforcer underneath. Receivers know that he will straight up murder them if they get near him. But, with all the fines he's had to pay, he's playing with less intensity. I think that Lawrence Timmons can still get the job of enforcer done, but Harrison's much better at it. In addition, Brady has used the short pass/smart decisions strategy to crush the Steelers defense again and again this season. Teams realize that they can't run against the Steelers, so they just throw it. Brady has no problems keeping at it until the defense flinches and his receivers start getting tons of yards after the catch.

On the one hand, the New England defense kinda sucks. They have smart, savvy players, but they used to have a bunch of smart, savvy players that were actually good. Right now? They're kinda just smart and savvy. So, they'll make a big play when they need to with the game on the line, but they won't be able to out-execute many people play-to-play.

On the other hand, that means that the Steelers actually need to execute, which has been an issue. If they can execute on offense, I think they'll be able to gain yards in chunks, which is how Bruce Arians likes it. But, Bill Belichick's strategy on defense is to take away an offense's two best weapons and make the other guys beat him. That means Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall will be taken out of the game and Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and, Randle-El need to win this game. Can they do it? Sure, anything's possible through Jesus. But... likely? Not as much.

On the one hand, the Patriots got crushed by Cleveland last week. Crushed. By Cleveland. Now, the Browns are starting to look like a better team, but they're still the Browns. Good teams don't get smoked by Cleveland by 20 points.

On the other hand, it didn't work out so well for the Steelers the last time they played someone on a Sunday night that got smoked by Cleveland the previous week. If Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau try what worked for the Browns last week, New England will have already adjusted and it won't work. The Patriots players are super angry about what happened in Week 9 and they've been working all week to fix it. New England is not the kind of team that loses in back to back weeks.

On the one hand, the Steelers have a pretty big special teams advantage, which is weird to say. Emmanuel Sanders is starting to look like a decent return guy, we have Vulva, and our coverage guys are significantly better than their counterparts on the Patriots.

On the other hand, Jeff Reed has been inconsistent to say the least. This is going to be a tight game and the Steelers are going to need to count on his right leg. Can they? I'm not sure.

On the one hand, the line opened at 5 and is now at 4.5, so not a lot of people are taking the Patriots. Seven of eight of the experts on ESPN.com picked the Steelers over the Pats.

On the other hand, when I was talking to Weidman and Topher about this last night at the bar, we had two predictions for the Steelers and one for the Patriots. With three homers in attendance, there should have been three for the Steelers, but by a low margin of victory. And... I should have been more confident in my pick. That's below, but here's one other thing to consider...

I think this is going to be a tight game, but I think the crowd is going to be the difference. At the Baltimore game, people were crazy ba-nuts insane and that was Week 4. After the Steelers had played three of their first four at home. Tomorrow night? You'll have 65,000 drunk yinzers -- myself and Weidman included -- that will have had all day to pre-game and haven't been able to see a Steelers home game in a month. In an entire month. Plus 65,000 drunk, crazy yinzers. Against the Patriots. Both teams are 6-2 and most Steeler fans hate the Patriots about as much as they hate the hated Ravens. They are going to be fired up. Fired up is probably not an apt description and falls way short, so they are going to be super duper crazy insane ba-nuts fired up on a stick. I think they carry the team to victory.

On the one hand, I'm going to the game and I'm 12-3 over my lifetime.

On the other hand, I'm 2-3 in my last five games, which is not exactly awesome.

On the one hand, I predicted the exact score of the Cleveland game.

On the other hand, my predictions have sucked hard this year. When I've predicted a win, the Steelers have lost. When I've predicted a loss, the Steelers have won.

So, even though I think the crowd will carry the Steelers to victory, I need to do my part.

Prediction:
Patriots 28, Steelers 24

Steelers-Bengals Preview

This game scares the hell out of me.

Sure, the Bengals are only 2-5 against (basically) common opponents, but they beat the hated Ravens and they're sixth in the league in passing. The Steelers are 25th at defending the pass.

It's true that Cincinnati has gained a lot of those yards in garbage time, but they still gained them. They have two really great receivers in the venerable duo of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Ike Taylor usually owns Ochocinco, regardless of what his last name is, and the Steelers have been fairly able to stop Owens in the past.

If they put Troy on Owens and he has the same kind of game he had when the two faced each other in the Eagles game in 2004, then that means that the Steelers have a good shot of stopping the Bengals passing game and they have a good chance of winning.

The Cincinnati defense has been pretty craptastic thus far this year, so that should help the Steelers offense. Their cornerbacks have been banged up and their front seven hasn't been as impressive this season as it was the past two seasons. If the Steelers can run the ball and Roethlisberger has enough time to throw, then maybe they can score enough points to pull one out.

This is not a game where they can score 10, 15, 14, or 19 points and still win, so they need to do a better job in the red zone and near the goal line. If they get touchdowns instead of field goals when they get close, they'll be able to score enough points to win.

The problem there is that the Bengals are going to be more fired up and determined than the Saints were last week... and they have another edge.

The big things that scare the hell out of me...

1. This is the third road game in a row for the Steelers. With all the rhetoric about how it's just another game and players don't care where they play, they'd rather have had a home game in there somewhere. Having home games, aside from being able to play in front of fans that support you, also allows you to stay in your routine. Routine is very important to these guys. All this flying around from place to place and practicing in strange places has to be wearing on them at this point. This is the factor that scares me the least, but I think it's definitely a factor.

2. This is a trap game. Last week, the Steelers played the defending champs. Next week, they play New England in another prime time game. This rivalry is way more important to the Bengals than it is to the Steelers. The Bengals don't get a lot of opportunities to play on Monday night and they'll want to make a big splash. They're at home. They are going to be super fired up.

The Steelers have faced a super fired up Bengals team in the past and dispatched them, but they went 0-2 against the super fired up Bengals last season. Recent history says that they'll be too much for the Steelers.

On top of that, the Bengals are a much better second half team than they are a first half team. If they come out fired up and can sustain that, then the Steelers will have their hands full, which will probably translate into a loss.

3. The Bengals were built and designed to beat the Steelers and the hated Ravens. At some point, Marvin Lewis said to himself, "Pittsburgh and Baltimore are pretty good teams. If we can beat them twice a year each, then pencil in two wins over Cleveland, we only need to win three or four other games a year to make the playoffs." That's a made up thought, but it has been documented that the Bengals built their team and their scheme around beating the Steelers and the hated Ravens.

It's tough enough to win a game on Monday night on the road against a hungry division opponent, but it's even tougher when they're specifically designed to beat you.

That factor, plus everything else in play, makes me think the Steelers won't pull this one out.

I've said before that September is where you set yourself up, October is where you start to define your identity, and November is where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. Thus far this season, the Steelers have looked pretty damn good. Almost halfway through, they look like one of the better teams in the NFL. Right now, they look like a contender.

With Monday night's game and a big game against the Patriots next week, they can position themselves well with two wins. After that, they have a suddenly feisty Raiders team, then Buffalo. An undefeated November would establish them as a legitimate contender and position them to rain Hell in December.

The Saints game was a letdown, but the Steelers have another shot to prove that they're for real.

Unfortunately, I don't think they're going to take that shot.

Prediction:

Bengals 28, Steelers 24

Steelers-Saints Review

A loss always sucks. The silver lining is that it's a non-conference loss, so it doesn't count as much. The hated Ravens sit atop the AFC North, but that's only based on a head-to-head win. They still have more conference losses.

You can't pin this loss on Heath Miller. The man has gained countless yards the past few years fighting for that extra inch. I don't want him giving up those inches because he thinks he might fumble. Having said that, he still needs to wrap up the ball in the closing minutes.

You can't pin it on the defense. They held the New Orleans Saints -- there was a graphic during the telecast that said that the Saints have averaged 26.7 points per game since 2006 -- to 20 points, which is below their average. You could argue that they could have stepped up after the Miller fumble and held the Saints to a field goal, but New Orleans would still have won 16-10.

I think that you can pin this on the offense. You can't score ten points and think that you're going to beat the Saints. You might be able to get away with that kind of output against Tampa or Cleveland, but New Orleans is going to score, so you need to keep pace.

I said in the Preview that the Saints were going to blitz and that Ben Roethlisberger was going to make more big plays than dumb mistakes. The issue was that the Steelers weren't prepared for the blitz.

Now, I'm just some idiot with a blog that has six loyal readers and gets 300 click-throughs a month from drunk yinzers that are looking for "porn n at". If I know that the blitz is coming -- and the Saints blitzed seven or eight guys on a few occasions and brought six guys numerous times -- then the Steelers coaches should have been prepared. I understand that Roethlisberger is comfortable with the offense, but, if you're Bruce Arians, you may want to have a review session with your quarterback and receivers regarding hot reads before the game. As far as I could tell, no such review session was conducted.

So, we basically, as Steeler fans, need to come to grips with the fact that either Arians or Tomlin is bad at making in-game adjustments. I may have said this before, but that explains why the offense gets a sudden "spark" when Roethlisberger goes into the two-minute, no huddle offense. He's calling plays at the line of scrimmage, adjusting to what he sees from the defense on the fly. The defense, having game planned to stop a certain scheme with certain tendencies, has no way to react. Thus, Roethlisberger, making in-game adjustments, is successful.

This great scheme, poor in-game factor would help to explain why the Steelers can't score from six inches out with three downs to play. It would help to explain why the Steelers didn't call a draw play on third and 20 in long field goal range in the first half. My buddy Joel and I discussed this -- the draw play in that situation is so predictable that I said, "Draw play," before the ball was snapped and was surprised that I was wrong -- but the draw play is the most logical call in that situation. You know that you're going to get something, even if it's only two or three yards, but you move yourself closer and you put your kicker in a better position. Instead, Arians called a standard play in an attempt to gain the full 20 yards and failed. The kick was no good, which cannot be pinned on Jeff Reed.

This would help explain why the Steelers didn't go play action after they were stuffed on their first attempt to punch it in from six inches out. It would also explain why Roethlisberger -- in a league that is hyper-sensitive about helmet-to-helmet fines and always looks to protect their quarterbacks -- didn't just try to sneak it across the line.

Arians has created an excellent system based on the talent at hand. Ben Roethlisberger is better at running that system than Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch, or Byron Leftwich. He will keep running that system even if it doesn't work. As Steeler fans, that is the contract that we entered into.

Hopefully the system works better against the Bengals next week.

Steelers-Saints Preview

Here's the thing...

I know the Saints are a good team. I am aware of the fact that they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I know that they won the Super Bowl last year. I know that they are well-coached and have a ton of veteran leadership.

I also know that they lost last week. To Cleveland. To Cleveland. At home. I know that they're currently 4-3, but the only good team they've played thus far is Atlanta and they lost to Atlanta. Sure, they beat the 4-2 Buccaneers, but so did the Steelers. The Steelers also beat Atlanta.

Their other three wins are against Minnesota (bad), San Francisco (really bad), and Carolina (super bad), and those were all close games against teams that range from bad to super bad. They also lost to Steelers West (also bad) by ten points. I believe that I mentioned that they lost to Cleveland at home by 13.

I know that the Steelers are banged up on defense, but I will take a banged up Steeler defense over a completely healthy Cleveland defense every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I believe that the Saints are struggling for two reasons:

1. They really, really miss their running game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush being hurt.
2. They kinda got lucky on defense last year.

For number one, the New Orleans offense has a lot more exotic looks and formations than the Steelers offense, but it's basically the same idea: Establish the run and get chunks of yards off of play action. The issue there -- as Steeler fans discovered last season -- is that defenses don't care about play action and you don't get those chunks of yards if you can't run the ball. You may be able to force some chunks of yards to happen through persistence, but you'll also have a lot of turnovers and incompletions mixed in with the success. That's where the Saints are right now.

The Steelers were able to overcome that in 2008 with an outstanding defense and were able to keep the damage to a minimum with a defense that played hard for the first 50 minutes or so in 2009. The issue with the Saints this season is that their defense isn't as good in 2010 -- or as lucky -- as they were in 2009.

The New Orleans defense recorded a ton of turnovers in 2009 and either scored on defense or set their offense up to score. The thing about turnovers is that you can force them, but a lot of it is just how the ball bounces or how dumb the guy with the ball feels like being. Saints defensive coordinator likes to blitz a lot. Then blitz some more. Then mix in some blitzes when he's done blitzing just to mix things up.

Sometimes, you blitz a quarterback and he does something dumb or you get a sack. Sometimes, you blitz a quarterback and he makes a big play. That's the contract you enter into when Gregg Williams is your defensive coordinator.

That contract paid off big time last season, as quarterbacks decided to be dumb more than they decided to make a big play. Sometimes, the ball tipped off a receiver's hand because the quarterback rushed the throw. Most times, that tipped ball went to a New Orleans defender. That's not happening us much this year and the defense is suffering.

The best way to pressure Ben Roethlisberger is to pressure him up the middle and contain the edges. When he is faced with this situation, sometimes he'll take a sack. Sometimes he'll do something really dumb (like against Miami last week). Sometimes he'll bust out of a tackle and make a big play. I just think he makes more big plays than he takes sacks and makes dumb mistakes on Sunday night. Blitzing is a high risk, high reward proposition. The Saints reaped the rewards in 2009 and they're realizing the risks this season.

With Corey Ivy and Ladell Betts at tailback and a high risk defense, I just don't think New Orleans has what it takes to beat the Steelers.

Vegas agrees. The line opened with the Saints favored by 3 or 4. There must have been a ton of action for the Steelers, because the line is now Pittsburgh by 1. I think the Steelers cover easily.

The only thing that worries me is that I'm not worried.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Saints 17

The best

Steelers vs.Dolphins Review

Hey, the Steelers won. They're 5-1 and they're one game ahead in their division. Let's stick with that. That's our story and we're sticking to it.

Let's not worry about the fact that they possibly lost Aaron Smith for the season -- which is one of the things that doomed them last year -- and that Flozell Adams could be done or that Woodley could miss a lot of time.

Let's get past the fact that they maybe should've not had the opportunity to kick that field goal. The Miami fans and papers should do that. The Dolphins had the ball deep in Steelers territory twice early in the game and got two field goals. They later got inside the ten and got a field goal as well. Miami has no one to blame but themselves. Blaming the officials for one play that was correctly called, then the ball got lost in the pile and couldn't be accurately reviewed, smacks of bitter Seahawks fans and no one wants that.

I'm happy that the passing game looked sharp. I'm not especially worried about the offensive line -- even Legursky, who had two holding penalties -- and not hugely worried about the running game. The Dolphins have a great run defense and the Steelers aren't a great running team. I'm happy that the team won. And I'm especially happy that the defense actually came up with a stop with under two minutes to play, even if the Dolphins aren't exactly the 2007 Patriots.

But, I have to say that I'm more than a little concerned that I was right about the early bye week and the fact that the team might not hold up throughout the course of the season. If Smith and Adams are lost for the year, they don't have the necessary depth to weather the storm. They might be able to get by for a few games, but with Nick Eason and Jonathan Scott in there, there's only so far they will be able to get in the playoffs (if they make it there).

The depth on this team is not great, which was one of the things that worried me heading into the season. They can withstand injuries at inside linebacker, cornerback, and possibly an injury to Ryan Clark, but that's about it. If Mendenhall goes down, a receiver gets hurt (especially Wallace), any more injuries strike the offensive or defensive line, or if Leftwich, Dixon, or Batch needs to play more than a half, this team is in deep, deep trouble.

They looked unstoppable through the first few games because injuries had not caught up with them. Well, injuries are starting to catch up because their old bodies are starting to break down. Let's just hope they don't break down any further.

They've got two tough road games coming up -- one against the defending champs of the league and one against the defending champs of the AFC North. I don't care that the Bengals are playing like the Bungles this year. They will still play the Steelers tough.

On top of that, there are three straight prime time games on the schedule -- Sunday night against the Saints, then Monday night against Cincy, then Sunday night against the Patriots. At least the game against New England is at home, where the Steelers tend to fare better.

If you had given me a choice of a Steelers loss, but they get to keep Adams and Smith healthy for the rest of the year or a Steelers win and they lose Adams and Smith, I would have taken a loss. But, the team got a win. They lost some players. There was a controversial call at the end of the game -- where they still would've had two timeouts, the best run defense in the league, and the two minute warning had Miami gotten the ball back, just saying -- but all that needs to be put behind us.

At this point, the Steelers and their fans need to play the hand they are dealt. I am therefore issuing a challenge to the Steelers much in the same way that I issued a challenge to the defense in 2008. If they win these next three games, they are a dominant team. If they go 2-1, they are a great team. If they go 1-2, they're a very good team. Even if they go 0-3, they're still a good team, but they will have a long road ahead of them.

Let's just hope it doesn't come to that.

Steelers-Browns Review

Well, again, it was the Browns. I can't get too excited about the fact that the offense scored 28 points because I have to consider the defense.

The good news is that the 28 points that the Steelers scored against Cleveland were earned. It wasn't like the Tampa game, where Charlie Batch had two touchdowns on balls that should have been intercepted and Brett Keisel returned an interception for a touchdown that took approximately six minutes to consummate, so one can only assume that the offensive players went to the sideline and got a head start on their hydration routine instead of chasing the play. It's possible that the Steelers poured a little salt on the wounds by going for the touchdown on their last drive. But, hey, I will take the points and the correct prediction.

Still, Roethlisberger looked pretty rusty and it wasn't until the second half that he started to shake some of that rust off. Mike Wallace had this to say after the game: "I really didn't want [Roethlisberger] to be flawless coming back. Then, we wouldn't really have anything to work on ... I think it's going to make for a better team because, come Wednesday, we go back to practice and we're going to work even harder."

Well, Mr. Wallace and Mr. Schaffer and Mr. Rooney, I will have to respectfully disagree. If Roethlisberger came out and didn't show any rust and was freakin' perfect, then you'd still have something to work on. You'd have to work on maintaining a level of perfection, which is harder than just working on getting better, which is kind of a nebulous goal.

Here's the thing: I need to approach the rest of the season with guarded optimism. I think that the defense looks great. Outstanding. Perhaps even at 2008 levels. I think that the offense is consistently improving -- not just the addition of Roethlisberger, but the offensive line has vastly improved, the receivers haven't missed a beat without Santonio Holmes, and I'm almost sold on Mendenhall if he'd stop spinning so much -- and that they'll continue to improve. That means that, with Vulva and Jeff Reed, this could be a complete team. Sure, Antonio Brown is still dead to me, but he's good enough.

If you look around the league, everyone else has issues. There's no complete team out there. The Cowboys are in disarray, the Colts don't seem to want to run the ball and they've had issues in their division, the Patriots have injuries piling up and no one in their right mind trusts the defense, the Packers don't have a running game or a clutch defense, the Vikings have Brett Favre, the Eagles still don't know who their quarterback is, the hated Ravens suddenly look vulnerable on defense, the Chargers are a mess, and no one knows what to make of the Jets or their quarterback. If the Steelers can fix their offense and hold it together on defense, then they can make a serious run.

That's if they hold it together on defense. They had an early bye week this year and a lot of the guys are really, really old. If they can hold it together, I think they can go a long way, because I think the offense will get together -- and in a hurry.

Before I sign off, I want to weigh in on the Harrison Fine.

When I first heard that he got fined, was excused from practice, and was thinking about retirement, I thought that he had a torn labrum and just needed to stop complaining. When I eventually read the coverage on the fine, I realized that the fine was levied on his hit on Massaquoi, not his hit on Cribbs.

The Cribbs hit was dirty. I was surprised that there wasn't a penalty. By the letter of the NFL Law, you're not supposed to lead with your helmet. Harrison was leading with his helmet all the way on that hit. Best case scenario, he knocks out Cribbs. Worst case scenario, he drives his helmet into Cribbs' back. If Harrison had gotten fined for that hit, I would have accepted it.

The hit on Massaquoi was not dirty. Harrison complained that he can no longer play football because hits like the one he laid on Massaquoi were what he's been taught to do since he was ten years old. Well, obviously. For the same reason, receivers like Massaquoi have been taught to protect themselves since they were ten. Coaches will tell them, "If you catch a short pass over of the middle or in the flat be careful. That's where the linebackers are. They're big, they're strong, they're scary, and they will murder you if they think the refs will allow it."

For that reason, Massaquoi should have been ready. He should have expected a hit. For all the announcers praise Hines Ward for being a tough guy and a warrior, have you ever seen him take a hit where you would have considered him to be defenseless? Of course not. He listened to his coaches. Hines always defends himself -- or moves out of the way of an on-rushing defender that is leading with his helmet -- if he thinks there is going to be serious contact.

The helmet-to-helmet rules were set up to enforce player safety. What the players don't realize is that they're trying to defend the hitter as much as they're trying to defend the hittee. Harrison could've knocked himself out with that hit, but he's fortunate he did it. He was able to brace himself.

What the NFL needs to do is start enforcing leading with the helmet against players who attack running backs and quarterbacks that aren't high-profile. What they need to do is penalize and fine players that lead with their helmet in a deliberate attempt to harm another player -- which Harrison did against Cribbs, but not Massaquoi. They need to protect all players, not just short-armed receivers in the deep seam.

Any player that leaves himself defenseless obviously doesn't understand the game of football. But, any player that uses his helmet as a weapon and deliberately tries to hurt another player with it does not understand the game and has no regard for his own safety. That is what the NFL needs to crack down on.

Steelers vs. Browns Preview

C'mon. It's the Browns.

I know that they've been close in every game this year. I know they've fought hard. I know they're a young team with something to prove and they just beat the Bengals and hung tough against the Falcons. I know they hate us more than we hate them. I know they beat us when they were 1-12 last season and we needed to win to stay in the playoff hunt.

But... it's the Browns.

I also know that Colt McCoy will be starting, Peyton Hillis is gimpy, and they don't have any legitimate receiving threats. The defense has been (mostly) unstoppable this year, so they should crush Cleveland.

The Browns are 14 point underdogs (the line started at 15.5, so Vegas is obviously trying to push the action to Cleveland) and that has to upset them. But, the last time I talked about an upsetting point spread, the Steelers beat Tampa 38-10.

I think the defense will be fine and this is the lightest challenge they have faced thus far this season. I think the real x-factor here is Ben Roethlisberger.

He's started two Super Bowls (XL and XLIII, which the Steelers won), a number of playoff games, and a number of games where he was returning from a serious injury (or bike crash), but this may be the most important start of Roethlisberger's career.

He knows the fans are mad at him. He knows that he needs to make it up to them. He knows that the best way to do that is to go out and destroy the Browns in his first start back. Then, he needs to keep winning and keep playing well. He also needs to stay out of trouble and keep Lil' Roethlisberger in his pants, but I think we all knew that.

The team weathered those first four games and did very well. It's now time for Roethlisberger to take over and prove that he's an elite quarterback that makes this team significantly better. I think he can do that. I think he knows what's at stake on Sunday and I think he will be able to handle it and handle it well.

Really, the only thing that scares me is Josh Cribbs. If that dude blows up and/or Cleveland gets a defensive touchdown, the Steelers could be in for a long day. Even if those things do happen, though, I still think the Steelers win, just not by as much. I think they know that there's too much on the line to come out flat. I don't think they come out flat. I think they come out fired up and that makes all the difference.

Prediction:

Steelers 28, Browns 10

Bye Week FAQ

How do you feel?

I feel pretty good. I think I would actually feel more ill-at-ease if the Steelers were heading into the Browns game with a 4-0 record. I think there was bound to be a letdown on defense when Ben Roethlisberger came back because everyone would just assume that the offense was going to take it from here. But, after everyone had way too much faith in the offense after the Tampa game and they let the team down, I think that the whole team realizes that it's going to take a team effort for the balance of the season.

I'm also glad that the next game is against Cleveland. The Browns are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback and the Steelers should be fired up. Sure, the Browns beat the Bengals, but so did Tampa, so maybe the Bengals are back to being in the Land of Suck.

The one thing I know is that the hated Ravens are a good team. Very beatable, especially by the Steelers when they have the right quarterback, but they're not going to go away.

But, ultimately, I was heading into the season thinking that 2-2 would be a very respectable start, so I'm super happy at 3-1 and we got the letdown game out of the way.

You must feel pretty dumb about thinking the defense was going to suck.

That's not a question.

You must feel pretty dumb about thinking the defense was going to suck, right?

I do feel a little dumb about being so down on them early on the offseason. But, by the time the preseason came along, I was basically on the trolley, sipping some Kool Aid. I was sipping it because I saw Ed Buchette throw down about three cups and he was slouched over in the corner.

Right now, I'm still a little cautious given the fact that they've shown shades of 2009 already this season. The big issue with the defense is that they're old. The good news is that LaMarr Woodley is playing great, James Harrison has caught his eighth wind, and Lawrence Timmons is living up to his draft stock. The issue is that I think Larry Foote or Keyaron Fox may be better at the Buck linebacker position than Farrior at this point. I think he's hurting the defense more than he's helping.

As long as no one gets seriously hurt -- like injured reserve hurt -- on the defensive line and Troy and Ryan Clark stay healthy in the secondary, I think we will be good to go. The other thing that needs to start happening is to start getting the young guys more reps. I think they are ready, especially Ziggy Hood. I hate to say it, but he might be a better option at end than Aaron Smith or Brett Keisel at this point.

What are your thoughts on the offensive line?

So glad you asked. In 2008/2009 they were dreadful. Heading into the season, I thought they may have upgraded to decent. At this point, I would say that they are pretty good. Considering that the Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII (yep, we won that game) with a dreadful offensive line, I am OK with pretty good.

The pass protection has gotten a lot better, particularly with regard to blitz recognition, but the big steps have been taken in the running game. Legursky and Pouncey are big time upgrades and Flozell Adams -- even though I don't trust his creaky, old body -- is basically a wash with Willie Colon. Maybe Adams is slightly better because he doesn't commit dumb penalties and is a little bigger and more physical.

Success in the running game is equal parts attitude, talent, and execution. The Steelers of the 70s really only ran counters and traps and everyone knew it. No one could stop it because they had a lot of good players and they executed the crap out of those plays. The Electric Company of the OJ Simpson days were unstoppable because they were super talented and they just knew that no one was going to be able to stop them.

The talent level is better this year, but I think the attitude has improved as well. Those linemen come out now expecting to be able to run the ball instead of waiting for the other shoe to drop. That will make a big difference for the balance of the season and (hopefully) in the playoffs.

Playoffs? Playoffs?!?! PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Yes. I said playoffs. With the remaining schedule and the fact that this team looks like it's for real, I think it's realistic to start thinking about the playoffs. I'm not making any Jim Fassell guarantees -- especially since the hated Ravens have a head-to-head win on the Steelers and they're not going away -- but it is looking very promising right now.

So... the offense is totally fixed now that Ben's back, right? Right?

Well, maybe. I know that the Steelers are currently ranked 31st in the league in pass offense right now. That will certainly improve. I know that they're struggling in the red zone and struggling in general to score points against anyone that isn't Tampa right now. That will improve. But, I can't say that sliding Roethlisberger in there will fix everything, but it will go a long way towards making the offense more potent and effective.

Right now, we'll just have to wait and see. His timing might be off -- though the bye week work they put in will help prevent that from happening -- and it will take him some time to re-adjust to the speed of the game and reading coverages in real time, but I think we'll definitely see a big spike in passing production.

Wow, you seem real positive. Any complaints?

The defense could still break my heart. At this point, I'm starting to trust them, I'm off the couch and back in the bedroom, but we're sleeping in separate beds. I just keep thinking back to last year and I don't want to set myself up to get hurt.

The return game is horrible. I know that Antonio Brown had a kick return for a touchdown against the Titans, but that was a trick play. Plus which, that dude is dead to me. In the game against the hated Ravens, he caught the final kickoff about seven yards deep in the end zone, hesitated -- at which point everyone in the stadium was screaming, "NO NO NO! DON'T RUN IT OUT!" -- and then ran the kick back to the 15. So, we lost about five seconds off the clock and five yards of field position. It's not as though Batch was going to drive the team down the field and get a field goal, but that was just stupid. Randle-El is a fair-catching machine.

Then, Stefan Logan had a 105 yard kickoff return for a touchdown this week. Not that I want Logan back, but that was just a groin shot that I didn't need.

And... Jeff Reed has me worried. He's missed four kicks already this year and he doesn't seem quite so automatic at Heinz Field anymore. I dropped him from my fantasy teams, but I still don't think we should even consider dropping him from the Steelers. I have faith that he will turn things around... just really hope he does it soon.

Finally, if this team is basically a carbon copy of the 2008 team only with a better offensive line, then I am SUPER happy about the fact that we can add "great punter" to that list, since Vulva is not hurt. He has been very impressive and I hope he punts for the team for a long, long time.

Steelers vs. Hated Ravens Review

If I had put in a prediction for this game, I would have predicted the Steelers to lose. This is not because I actually thought the Steelers would lose, but I had a track record of predicting them to lose, then they'd win. I was going to keep that up until they finally lost, then start making real predictions.

So, Sunday's loss is kind of a relief, because I was having a tough time trying to think of how the Steelers would lose to Cleveland. Then I thought of some other stuff about the Browns game coming up in Week 6, but more on that later.

I am bummed because I went to the game and Steelers lost, which puts my overall record at 12-3. It seems like so long ago that I was actually undefeated.

But, I had fun at the game, it was a great game, and I was able to get a ticket for one of my brother's groomsmen. He had never been to a professional football game and it was a great experience for him. The day would've been perfect if the Steelers had managed to win. Ultimately, though, I can't say that I'm that upset about the loss. The big thing is that I would have preferred it be to someone outside of the division, or, really someone outside of the conference. And I really really really wish it hadn't come at home against the hated Ravens.

Overall, though, I feel good about this season and I have reconciled Sunday's game.

This is for three reasons:

1. The Steelers are 3-1 and are heading into their bye week. I'm sure that every Steeler fan on the planet would've taken a 3-1 start when the season started.
   
2. Ben Roethlisberger comes back after the bye and will have a full week to get himself situated and prepare for Cleveland.
3. The Steelers would have won Sunday's game if Ben Roethlisberger was the quarterback instead of Charlie Batch. The Smithsonian must have noticed that Batch's arm was missing and taken it back. Roethlisberger would have made two or three of the key long throws that Batch couldn't make and the Steelers would've won.

But, there's one thing that worries me.

I know that the Steelers would have won on Sunday if Roethlisberger was starting... but I'm not sure that they'd be 3-1 or 4-0 if he started these first four games. There seemed to be something unique about those first three games. The defense had more fire, they got more pressure on the quarterback, seemed to be hitting harder. I think they understood that the offense wasn't going to win the game for them, so they had to go out and win it.

On Sunday, I think they had a little too much faith in Charlie Batch, even when he showed there was no reason to have faith in him. I think they might already be tired. I think they might already be starting to show their age, as evidenced by the ease of the last touchdown drive by the hated Ravens and possibly even how they let up and almost seemed to roll over in the last half of the fourth quarter against the Titans.

After the bye, the offense should be much better. But, I'm very skeptical of the thinking that Roethlisberger will fix the offense automatically; just by showing up. That seems to me to be a lot like trying to save a bad marriage by having a kid. The Steelers offense is still broken and one piece -- even one really big, really important piece -- won't be able to completely fix it.

I think a lot of people were too quick to accept that the offense was fixed just because it looked good against Tampa. I think the defense relaxed and may already have worn themselves out by carrying the offense for a month.

The defense is great, but it's also very old. Some new guys need to get more reps. The defense needs to slowly get younger, because suddenly overhauling an entire defense is a good way to finish in the bottom third of the league.

So, if you take the fact that the defense may already be worn out, the offense is overrated and possibly broken, and that no one knows what to expect from Roethlisberger -- or how the fans will react -- then you've got a pretty compelling argument that the Steelers will be a worse team after the bye with Roethlisberger.

I'm not saying keep Batch in there. Dear God, please, no. I'm not saying put in Leftwich or even my boyfriend Dennis Dixon. Ben Roethlisberger gives the Steelers the best chance to win -- and by a wide margin.

I'm saying that no one should expect the Steelers to start winning 38-6 every week (highest scoring effort of the season matched with best defensive effort of the season) just because they looked good as a team with their fourth string quarterback behind center and now have their first string guy. I'm also saying that it's possible that the Cleveland game could go the other way and the Steelers could lose 19-14 (highest points allowed, lowest points scored) or worse.

The defense might let down and the offense might not get on track. That could also persist for a couple of games. Or longer.

Having said all that, I'm still glad that they're 3-1, I still think they are in good shape, and I think they weathered this first storm well. The key will be how they weather the coming (possible) storm.

Steelers-Bucs Review

Well, I was completely wrong. The good news on that is that I'd rather be wrong and have the Steelers win than be right and have the Steelers lose. I'm sure you all know by now that the Steelers won today, just like they won Super Bowl XL and Super Bowl XLIII.

Today was the kind of blowout win and type of offense production that I think we were all looking for and probably needed. The Steelers are 3-0, proved me wrong yet again, and I am happy.

Now, three weeks into the season, I have to say that I am satisfied.

The Steelers finally opened up the offense, continued to play suffocating defense, and looked solid on special teams. Remember when Bitch Merger and -- what was that guy's name? Not Bitch Merger -- were averaging 30 yards a punt throughout the 2008 season? That's what the Buccaneers are currently dealing with. On top of the turnovers the Steelers forced, the fact that Mendenhall was running downhill all game, that Batch reclaimed his arm from the Smithsonian, and the Steelers got a couple of lucky bounces, Tampa had to deal with the fact that they lost 100 yards of field position because their punter sucks and Vulva is awesome. The Steelers were able to overcome that in 2008 because they had a great team. Tampa was not able to overcome their punter -- and everything else -- because it's a lot to overcome, they're probably a crappy team, and the 2010 Steelers could be a great team.

They may be able to overcome the fact that they didn't have a quarterback for the first four games of the season and establish themselves as the favorite to win the AFC. They may be able to, but let's not count any chickens when we've only got three games in the basket.

Also, Charlie Batch didn't play badly, but he's not the longterm answer at quarterback. He has probably held Byron Leftwich off for Week 4, but there's no way he's holding Ben Roethlisberger off after the suspension is over. His first touchdown to Mike Wallace was an underthrown ball that Wallace adjusted to and the cornerback did not. The second touchdown to Wallace was a lucky bounce. The third touchdown to Hines Ward was a nice play, but he also had all day to throw. I'm thinking he doesn't get as much time in the pocket next week against the hated Ravens as he did today against the Buccaneers.

His 24 yard "scramble" looked like the last play in The Longest Yard. I kept waiting for one of the guards to come along and clock him. He threw three touchdown passes, yes, but he also threw two interceptions and threw for only 86 yards to guys not named Mike Wallace.

I definitely overestimated Tampa. They may possibly be a gawd-awful team. But, the fact remains that the Steelers went into Tampa and completely destroyed that gawd-awful team, which is what great teams are supposed to do. They're also supposed to beat good teams.

After the other action today, I think you can safely say that Tennessee and Atlanta are good teams. I think you might be able to say that those are both very good or great teams. The Titans are 2-1 and have averaged 34 points a game against teams that aren't the Steelers. The Falcons put up 41 against Steelers West and 27 against the defending champs, winning in overtime today and also moving to 2-1.

That means that the Steelers beat two good teams and one crappy team without a quarterback. That means that they should be even better when they actually have a quarterback.

Does that mean that Mendenhall will be able to average seven yards a carry every week? No. But, it also means that he probably won't have to. It would be nice if he did, but it won't be as critical to the team's success.

The bad news is that they'll probably need Mendenhall to run for 143 yards and a touchdown next week against the hated Ravens. Some dude named Peyton Hillis just did that to the hated Ravens this week, so chances are not good that they will let that happen two weeks in a row.

I can't predict what the season will hold for the Steelers (obviously) but I can say that I'm satisfied now at 3-0. Heading into the season, with the expectations most of us had, 3-0 is definitely cause for some satisfaction.

Steelers-Bucs Preview

I didn't forget to post a review of the Titans game. I thought about it and realized that, basically, it broke down to this:

1. To say that the offense is terrible right now would be understating the obvious.
2. To say that the defense is fantastic right now would be understating the obvious.
3. But, the Steelers are 2-0 and that ain't bad.

That's really where we're at now. Charlie Batch completed five of 11 passes on Sunday for 25 yards. Averaging 2.3 yards per attempt is bad for a running back, to say nothing of a quarterback. A quarterback that allegedly knows the system and is more experienced and is therefore better than Dennis Dixon, I might add.

Dixon actually wasn't playing that bad. He had completed 68.8 percent of his passes and was averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He just didn't lead the offense on any touchdown drives. Neither did Batch, but that's not the point.

The offense is not bad. It's not struggling. It's not trying to find its groove. It's ass-terrible and I'm not convinced that it will be fixed when Ben Roethlisberger comes back. That's a story for another time, though.

I am starting to believe that the defense is back to their 2008 form, but they flashed a lot of 2009 in the fourth quarter against the Titans. If that game went to overtime, the Steelers would have lost.

The important thing to remember is that the game did not go into overtime and the Steelers did not lose. They're 2-0. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-0. That's what matters. Even if they lose their next two games -- which could very well happen -- they're still 2-2 heading into the bye, which is what we all realistically hoped for.

Regarding the game against Tampa this weekend...

I saw that the Steelers were favored by three points this weekend and thought, "Only three? But Tampa really sucks." Then I thought about it from Tampa's perspective. They must be thinking, "We're undefeated and playing at home. Somehow, we're three point underdogs to a team that's starting a 36 year-old third string quarterback that hasn't scored a touchdown in regulation all season."

You could argue that Tampa is only 2-0 because they beat a couple of really crappy teams -- Carolina looks awful and Tampa needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat Cleveland. But the key here is that Tampa doesn't know any better. They're too young and dumb to know that they don't have "quality wins" and should just roll over and get crushed by the Steelers.

They have youth on their side and they have confidence on their side. The issue with young teams is usually that they don't have a broad history of successes to remember when they're struggling. They don't have a mental example of a time when they overcame adversity in a situation, what they learned they learned from that situation, and how they can use that experience and confidence to succeed in the situation they're currently struggling with.

If Ben Roethlisberger finds himself down by three in a Super Bowl with two minutes left in the game facing a long field, he knows that he should be able to drive the team down the field and score because he's done it before. Josh Freeman -- the quarterback for the Buccaneers -- now has his example. He was down by 11 against the Browns in Week 1 and brought his team back to win.

Sure, it's the Browns. Sure, it's only one example. But that's all Freeman knows. All these players know is that they sucked something awful last season, but they started to band together, started to figure some stuff out, and won more than they lost the last six games of the season. This season, they know they're 2-0, they're at home, and they're underdogs to some bunch of old dudes that are waiting for a rapist to come back and lead them.

Tampa doesn't have a lot of star power -- or really any star power -- but that doesn't mean they aren't talented. If you're in the NFL, you're talented. There are about six billion people in this world and only about 1,500 of them are on NFL rosters. In order to make that cut, you need to be talented. Some players are more talented than others, sure. Some teams are more talented than others.

The Steelers have more star power and talent than the Bucs, but the Bucs are too young and dumb to be intimidated by that. The Steelers are assuming that they'll win, while the Bucs expect to win and will do whatever it takes to win.

A lot of the fans are just waiting for Roethlisberger to come back. There are probably a number of players on the Steelers that feel as though they just need to get through this first month, though they'd never admit that publicly.

Tampa's together, Tampa's at home, Tampa has their team in place and they're confident in that team and what they're doing. If the Steelers try to turn things around in the fourth quarter and basically say, "We're the grown-ups here, so just listen to us and let us win the game," Tampa won't listen.

I don't quite trust the defense yet -- especially late in the game -- and I definitely and definitively don't trust the offense. I trust that Tampa is starting to build some swagger and everyone in their locker room knows that this could be their "statement game."

Prediction:

Buccaneers 17, Steelers 15

Steelers-Titans Preview

This is a tough one because I had it penciled in as a loss. The Titans are a superior team when the Steelers don't have Ben Roethlisberger under center and they're at home. I knew that their confidence would be built up from beating up on Oakland the week before.

In the Falcons game, I knew that we were the better team overall, but we were going to be handicapped on offense in Dixon's first start. That meant it would come down to the quarterbacks and Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Dennis Dixon.

In this game? A lot of things need to go right for the Steelers to win.

The Steelers will win if:

They can run the ball.

I know that sounds obvious, since the best way to win with an inexperienced quarterback is to be able to run the ball and set up the passing game, but it's true. The running game was solidly OK against the Falcons and, if you've been watching the Steelers for the past two seasons, it was solidly good. But, Tennessee has a better front seven than Atlanta and the Steelers are on the road. And Max Starks -- as much as I've ragged on him over the years -- is the best option the Steelers have at left tackle and will be missed in the running game and the passing game.

With any luck, the offensive line will rally around whoever needs to start in place of Starks and have a great game. Running the ball is part talent, part execution, and part desire. If the Steelers get the first two thirds down, the talent part won't matter as much.

They use Dixon properly.

During the Falcons game, the announcers kept saying that Dennis Dixon can only throw to the middle part of the field. If he tries to throw right or throw left, he's doomed. If he focuses on the middle, he's good to go.

That was a partially accurate statement.

The fact is that Dixon can only read one section of the field on a given play. He can read the left side, the right side, or the middle -- but not all at once. He doesn't have the experience and grasp of the offense to read the entire field.

What teams usually do with a quarterback that runs well, doesn't have a complete grasp of the offense, and can't read the field is fix it so that he only has to read one section of the field. Usually, with fast, right-handed quarterbacks, they roll that quarterback out to the right.

The advantages are that he only needs to read part of the field, he can run if he needs to, and he can throw the ball out of bounds if there is no other option, because he's already outside the tackle box.

Now, the Steelers didn't try this at all in the game against Atlanta, which leads me to three conclusions:

1. They thought they could beat the Falcons without using this strategy.
2. They are dumb and don't know what they're doing.
3. I am dumb and don't know what I'm talking about.

Since we hope that #2 isn't true and know that #3 is not at all possible, I'm hoping that #1 is true and that the Steelers deploy the "roll out" strategy against the Titans.

The defense holds up.

We're all shell-shocked from 2009 and were waiting for the defense to blow it against the Falcons. They didn't. If the Steelers get a lead, they will turtle and try to keep Dixon from giving the game away. That means the defense will need to hold up.

The Titans will win if:

They can run the ball.

If Chris Johnson is unsuccessful -- for him that means about 20 carries for about 70 yards and possibly a touchdown -- then the Steelers have a chance. If he is successful -- which could mean up to 200 yards and multiple touchdowns -- then the Steelers are boned. Johnson is their most powerful and effective weapon on offense. Stop him and you stop the Titans.

But, the defense can't be too concerned with the run.

A deep pass here or there can be sustained. If the defense becomes overly obsessed with stopping the run, then Kenny Britt and Nate Washington become Randy Moss and Jerry Rice.

They get a big play from their defense or special teams.

Any return or turnover that gets the Titans inside the 20 is going to kill the Steelers in terms of momentum and the scoreboard. Tennessee is too good in the red zone to give them extra opportunities. If they get one, they will convert. That would be too much of a swing in points in what should be a low-scoring game.

Odds:

The Titans are at home, they're coming off a blow-out win, and they're playing with confidence. The Steelers are on the road, they have an inexperienced quarterback, and they barely escaped Week 1 with a win.

Prediction:
Titans 17, Steelers 7