Let's just get this out there right off the bat: I don't think the Steelers are going to win this game. I'd say I'm 99% certain that the Patriots are going to beat them and probably beat them soundly. That remaining 1% doesn't come from logic.
Well, so, there's a bunch of reasons. Brady's 6-1 against the Steelers for his career. The Patriots just came off a bye and they've won eight straight (regular season) games coming off a bye. Matchups are a huge issue because the Steelers don't have enough depth in the secondary (note that I said "depth" not "talent"). Then there's the fact that the Patriots tend to make better in-game adjustments than pretty much anyone, but especially the Steelers.
The thing is that understanding how to beat the Patriots is pretty easy. You need to stop Tom Brady, not get intimidated, and score enough points on offense to keep up with them. Simple, right? Well, it's also easy to understand how to make as much money as Mark Zuckerberg, it's just incredibly difficult to come up with something like Facebook and take the right steps to make sure it takes off. The difficulty of the task lies in the execution, which is why New England hasn't lost a lot of games in the last decade or so.
Here's what they need to do, but I doubt that they'll be able to do it.
Contain Wes Welker:
If Ike Taylor is as successful against Welker as he was against Larry Fitzgerald last week, that counts as a win. I'm not saying he will have had a bad game if Welker gets more than four receptions for 78 yards. I'm saying that Fitz caught four balls on ten targets last week, so he only caught a pass 40% of the time. Welker has been targeted an average of 13 times a game thus far this season. To make the math easy, let's say he gets targeted 15 times on Sunday. If he finishes with six catches, that's a good sign.
Taylor has had a very good season thus far and I think he's up to the task, but he's also struggled against Welker in the past, so we shall see.
Don't Let Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski Kill You:
Part of the Steelers undoing last season was that they weren't able to handle the talented tight end duo. They need to come out with three linemen, Woodley and Timmons, and six defensive backs, then move Troy in close like he's a linebacker. New England varies how they line up Hernandez and Gronkowski. Sometimes, they'll line up next to the tackles, sometimes they'll split out wide like receivers. Woodley and Timmons need to mirror them and chuck them within five yards of the line, with Troy and the other defensive backs providing support.
Brady doesn't like pressure up the middle, so blitz Troy until it works, then back off. Rinse, repeat.
Tackling was a major issue in last year's game and the Steelers can't afford to have the first guy miss. The Patriots tend to isolate guys so that they just need to break one tackle and start running, which means gang tackling is not going to be an option.
Spreading the linebackers out like this will create some huge natural running lanes, but that's ultimately not an issue, because...
We Don't Need to Make Assurances as if We Were Lawyers:
Brady will see those nice, juicy running lanes and want to take advantage of it. He'll audible to a lot of running plays, especially early. What the Steelers need to do is not freak out when BenJarvis Green-Ellis (The Law Firm) starts getting five or six yards a carry. What they need to remember is that BJGE getting 5.5 yards per rush is better than Brady getting ten yards per pass attempt.
New England has a tendency to try to turn everything into a shootout. The Steelers need to brace for that and stay in the fight.
Be Efficient on Offense and Don't Panic:
At some point, Bill Belichick realized that the NFL changed the rules so drastically that it didn't make sense to try and play defense. From there on, he focused on building a team that could score as many points as possible. The fact that the Patriots are so prolific on offense puts pressure on the other team's defense, but it also puts a great deal of pressure on the other team's offense because they feel as though they need to keep up.
Imagine a party on a Friday night. The New England offense is the Hot Cheerleader and the other offense is the Awkward Girl that ditched the overalls, glasses, and ponytail and decided that she wanted to be pretty. She may be prettier than the Hot Cheerleader and she may make that girl nervous or uneasy, but the hot cheerleader is still a hot cheerleader and everyone knows it. All she needs to do is keep being a hot cheerleader, which is like breathing. She just needs to wait until the Awkward Girl knocks something over or reference Proust and then the Hot Cheerleader has the ball.
What the Awkward Girl needs to do is keep things together until the Hot Cheerleader has too many shots and passes out in the basement. She can't panic, because the Hot Cheerleader can smell fear.
The Steelers can't turn the ball over and they can't try to force what isn't there. They also can't just lean on the run and try to play keep away, since the Patriots are actually very good at defending the run and the Steelers are actually pretty bad at running the ball.
Point blank, New England's pass defense kinda sucks. They're last in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. Taking the stance that they've been in the lead all season and teams have been desperately passing the ball in an attempt to catch up isn't valid. They've allowed 8.5 yards per attempt. They have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, with 37. They just had their bye, which means they allow over six completions of 20+ yards per game. The opportunities will be there. The Steelers don't need to force anything, they just need to make the plays when they're open.
They need to be balanced and efficient on offense. They can't commit dumb penalties. They can't blow assignments. They need to convert on third down. They need to convert in the red zone. They can't turn the ball over. They need to keep rolling with the punches, stay with the Patriots, not flinch, and wait until the Hot Cheerleader passes out in the basement.
And... that's it. That's all they need to do. Easy, right? Please join my social networking site so that I can become a billionaire.
Prediction:
Patriots 31, Steelers 23
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 8
Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)
Ew. That's all I can say about last week. Those eff'n Ravens really summed it all up with their world-class choke Monday. That was a sure thing - but sure things aren't worth the paper they're written on in this sport. (At least the Saints delivered an epic beating that should make up for all failed picks.) So, all I can do is buck up and hope this week is better.
I have a hole to dig myself out of.
Dolphins at the New York Football Giants
This one is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. The Dolphins suck so bad that they might pull his Chinliness out of retirement, and they're on the road against a playoff-worthy team. Giants walk away with this one.
Jags at Texans
Well, this one should be a gimmie, but...well...talk to the Ravens. I don't think that matters, for a number of reasons. First off, they blew their wad last week. They aren't going to pull an upset two weeks in a row. Second, they're on the road, and that's always good for a hit against a team. Texas keeps it big.
Colts at Titans
Meh. The Titans aren't great, but the Colts are on their way to being a punchline in Detroit's locker room. I think the line might be a bit extreme on them (and it's mainly because of the Colts forgetting to show up last week) but it doesn't change the fact that the Titans are going to win.
Vikings at Panthers
Well, when in doubt, take the home team. Once again, neither team is worth watching, and I've got nothing good to say about the game. Take the Cats.
Saints at Rams
I think that the Saints got a taste for tenderized meat last week and are going to be coming back for a second helping this week. I doubt they're going to nuke it from orbit again, but they aren't going have any trouble.
Cards at hated Ravens
The bird fight of the week. The Cards are hurting from the Steelers beating on them last week, and the Ravens are prepping for their share next week. I think that these facts are going to keep the line closer, so I'd take the points this week. Why? Because the Cards have something to prove, and the Ravens aren't going to risk injuries.
Lions at Broncos
What do you think a lion would do to a horse? That's what's gonna happen. Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme, but the Lions are going to win this one on the road. Plus, Detroit hasn't screwed the pooch yet.
Skins at Bills
I still think that the Skins are better than they look, but they're not really contenders. I still see Bills in the playoffs, and they going to have a nice win at home.
Pats at Steelers
Ugh. This is the prediction that I've been dreading all week. The Steelers are probably going to go 1-2 over the next three weeks, and this isn't going to be the 1. Sure, we're sitting at the top of our division and on pretty equal standing with the Pats - but Brady is, what, 6-1 against us? He also has good tight ends and the Steelers have a blind spot there. Don't bet against Brady. *sigh*
Browns at Niners
Another easy home pick. Niners are just the better team.
Bungles at Seahawks
The Seahawks haven't improved with age this year, and the Bungles are still looking really good. Even though they're on the road, they're still going to win this one. Take Cincy.
Dallas at Philly
Philly is well-rested and ready to go. They've had a rough go of it this season, but coming off a bye at home makes them the pick in this game, especially when the Cowboys have been less than earth-shattering.
Chargers at Chiefs
Give this one to the road team. I know, the Chargers seem to be "meh" of late, but I think they're going to pull this one off by a hair. Granted, it's Halloween and anything can happen.
New York Football Giants over Dolphins
Texans over Jags
Titans over Colts
Panthers over Vikings
Saints over Rams
Hated Ravens over Cards
Lions over Broncos
Bills over Skins
Pats over Steelers
Niners over Browns
Bungles over Seahawks
Philly over Dallas
Chargers over Chiefs
Ew. That's all I can say about last week. Those eff'n Ravens really summed it all up with their world-class choke Monday. That was a sure thing - but sure things aren't worth the paper they're written on in this sport. (At least the Saints delivered an epic beating that should make up for all failed picks.) So, all I can do is buck up and hope this week is better.
I have a hole to dig myself out of.
Dolphins at the New York Football Giants
This one is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. The Dolphins suck so bad that they might pull his Chinliness out of retirement, and they're on the road against a playoff-worthy team. Giants walk away with this one.
Jags at Texans
Well, this one should be a gimmie, but...well...talk to the Ravens. I don't think that matters, for a number of reasons. First off, they blew their wad last week. They aren't going to pull an upset two weeks in a row. Second, they're on the road, and that's always good for a hit against a team. Texas keeps it big.
Colts at Titans
Meh. The Titans aren't great, but the Colts are on their way to being a punchline in Detroit's locker room. I think the line might be a bit extreme on them (and it's mainly because of the Colts forgetting to show up last week) but it doesn't change the fact that the Titans are going to win.
Vikings at Panthers
Well, when in doubt, take the home team. Once again, neither team is worth watching, and I've got nothing good to say about the game. Take the Cats.
Saints at Rams
I think that the Saints got a taste for tenderized meat last week and are going to be coming back for a second helping this week. I doubt they're going to nuke it from orbit again, but they aren't going have any trouble.
Cards at hated Ravens
The bird fight of the week. The Cards are hurting from the Steelers beating on them last week, and the Ravens are prepping for their share next week. I think that these facts are going to keep the line closer, so I'd take the points this week. Why? Because the Cards have something to prove, and the Ravens aren't going to risk injuries.
Lions at Broncos
What do you think a lion would do to a horse? That's what's gonna happen. Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme, but the Lions are going to win this one on the road. Plus, Detroit hasn't screwed the pooch yet.
Skins at Bills
I still think that the Skins are better than they look, but they're not really contenders. I still see Bills in the playoffs, and they going to have a nice win at home.
Pats at Steelers
Ugh. This is the prediction that I've been dreading all week. The Steelers are probably going to go 1-2 over the next three weeks, and this isn't going to be the 1. Sure, we're sitting at the top of our division and on pretty equal standing with the Pats - but Brady is, what, 6-1 against us? He also has good tight ends and the Steelers have a blind spot there. Don't bet against Brady. *sigh*
Browns at Niners
Another easy home pick. Niners are just the better team.
Bungles at Seahawks
The Seahawks haven't improved with age this year, and the Bungles are still looking really good. Even though they're on the road, they're still going to win this one. Take Cincy.
Dallas at Philly
Philly is well-rested and ready to go. They've had a rough go of it this season, but coming off a bye at home makes them the pick in this game, especially when the Cowboys have been less than earth-shattering.
Chargers at Chiefs
Give this one to the road team. I know, the Chargers seem to be "meh" of late, but I think they're going to pull this one off by a hair. Granted, it's Halloween and anything can happen.
New York Football Giants over Dolphins
Texans over Jags
Titans over Colts
Panthers over Vikings
Saints over Rams
Hated Ravens over Cards
Lions over Broncos
Bills over Skins
Pats over Steelers
Niners over Browns
Bungles over Seahawks
Philly over Dallas
Chargers over Chiefs
Keller's Picks, Week 8
Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)
Last week was not kind to the kind citizens of Pick Em Land, but this week looks promising. There are fewer swing games and more games that look like they're sure things. I also think that the upsets are going to be easier to sniff out (including our Moneyline of the Week). But, that's just what I think and my opinions aren't worth much, historically.
Having said that, you should totally use all my picks for your pool this week.
Indianapolis at Tennessee:
This is a tougher call than you might think, since everyone knows that the Colts are sucking something awful this year and the Titans at least beat Baltimore. But, both teams got taken to the woodshed last week, so it's not a slam dunk (and maybe it's a bad idea for Vegas to favor the Titans by 9). Still, I think Tennessee has the better quarterback, they're playing at home, and Chris Johnson needs to do something to keep fantasy football players everywhere from showing up at his house with pitchforks and torches.
Jacksonville at Houston:
This one is more of a slam dunk. I know the Jags beat the hated Ravens on Monday Night Football, but that also means a short week. You know who else beat the hated Ravens? The Titans, who got shellacked by the Texans in Week 7.
Minnesota at Carolina:
I'm gonna pick some road teams, I promise. I think the Panthers are starting to put things together and I think they're learning how to limit mistakes and win close games. I think Cam Newton is getting better, which is pretty scary. The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is Adrian Peterson. He seems primed for one of those games where he just destroys everyone and everything. Peterson fills me with doubt, so take the home team.
NOLA at St. Louis:
See? Road team. I was wrong to pick against the Saints to cover last week. These tune-up games are perfect for them. They always win them in impressive fashion.
Arizona at Baltimore:
Joe Flacco struggled last week against Jacksonville. You know what's going to be best for what's ailing him? The crappy Cardinals secondary. Also, I think John Harbaugh has Suggs, Lewis, Ngata, and Reed that Kevin Kolb had group sex with their mothers. This one's gonna be ugly.
Miami at NY Giants:
Giants are finally getting healthy and the Dolphins are still completely terrible at the game of football.
Washington at Buffalo:
Half the guys on the Redskins are on injured reserve and the other half of them are just injured. This team is taking on serious amounts of water and they draw a well-rested Bills team playing at home. Not a good draw. I don't think this game is a blowout, but I think Buffalo wins comfortably and gets back on track.
Detroit at Denver:
I don't buy into Tebowmania and I just read that Matthew Stafford is practicing and should be available on Sunday. Denver and Tebow were barely good enough to beat the completely terrible Dolphins last week. It's gut check time for the Lions, who have the opportunity to gain half a game on the idle Packers. Interesting stat: Tebow was sacked seven times by the completely terrible Dolphins last week. Related sidenote: Detroit's defensive line is very, very good.
New England at Steelers:
Too much Tom Brady, their offensive line is too good, too much Wes Welker, their defense will do just enough to win this game. There are a bunch of reasons why the Patriots will win on Sunday. Check back later this week to find out what the Steelers need to do to win.
Cleveland at San Francisco:
Interesting sidenote: In my one league, I have Aaron Rodgers and he's on bye. A few weeks back, I picked up Alex Smith because I knew he was playing Cleveland this week. I also have Michael Crabtree. I dropped Smith and added Andy Dalton, because I think the Browns pass defense is pretty good. Cleveland needs to celebrate the small victories, because there's no way they're winning this game.
Cincinnati at Seattle:
OK. I can't believe I'm going to type this, but here goes: This prediction hangs on whether or not Tavaris Jackson plays. Jackson was inching his way towards respectability and I think he was very nearly there before he got hurt. I think he can make enough plays to win against a tough Cincy defense. I also think that the Bengals aren't ready to win this game. They're still young, it's a cross-country trip, Seattle plays better at home, and everyone on the Bengals had the bye week to read all about how they're a surprise team that's going to make some noise. Something about Cincinnati's history tells me that they choke this one away just as everyone is starting to believe in them.
Dallas at Philadelphia:
I had this game picked at the beginning of the season. Andy Reid has never lost a game following a bye (regular season only). Don't think about it too much, just follow me blindly.
San Diego at Kansas City:
This is a tough one. If the Patriots win, then they'll win by more than a field goal, so take them (-3 at Steelers). The line has already moved a point since Monday, so get on it now because it's only going to keep going up. I have not fully convinced myself that New England is going to win yet and I think the Lions (-3) at Denver is a safer bet. The Broncos suck something awful and Football Jesus isn't going to miracle them to victory this week. If Stafford plays -- and it looks like he is going to -- then they're pretty much a lock to cover.
Moneyline of the Week:
If Tavaris Jackson plays, take the Seahawks (+129) and the money and run. If he doesn't, the Chiefs look mighty attractive at (+171). Double your pleasure (and your money) and bet both!
Over/Under of the Week:
After last week's debacle -- I said to take the Over on Seahawks-Browns and they ended up combining for nine points -- I'm not going to get cute. Take the Under on Seahawks-Bengals. Both teams have consistently hit the under, regardless of opponents. Both teams are solid on defense and not so awesome on offense.
Tennessee over Indianapolis
Houston over Jacksonville
Carolina over Minnesota
NOLA over St. Louis
Baltimore over Arizona
NY Giants over Miami
Buffalo over Washington
Detroit over Denver
New England over Steelers
San Francisco over Cleveland
Seattle over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Dallas
Kansas City over San Diego
Last week was not kind to the kind citizens of Pick Em Land, but this week looks promising. There are fewer swing games and more games that look like they're sure things. I also think that the upsets are going to be easier to sniff out (including our Moneyline of the Week). But, that's just what I think and my opinions aren't worth much, historically.
Having said that, you should totally use all my picks for your pool this week.
Indianapolis at Tennessee:
This is a tougher call than you might think, since everyone knows that the Colts are sucking something awful this year and the Titans at least beat Baltimore. But, both teams got taken to the woodshed last week, so it's not a slam dunk (and maybe it's a bad idea for Vegas to favor the Titans by 9). Still, I think Tennessee has the better quarterback, they're playing at home, and Chris Johnson needs to do something to keep fantasy football players everywhere from showing up at his house with pitchforks and torches.
Jacksonville at Houston:
This one is more of a slam dunk. I know the Jags beat the hated Ravens on Monday Night Football, but that also means a short week. You know who else beat the hated Ravens? The Titans, who got shellacked by the Texans in Week 7.
Minnesota at Carolina:
I'm gonna pick some road teams, I promise. I think the Panthers are starting to put things together and I think they're learning how to limit mistakes and win close games. I think Cam Newton is getting better, which is pretty scary. The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is Adrian Peterson. He seems primed for one of those games where he just destroys everyone and everything. Peterson fills me with doubt, so take the home team.
NOLA at St. Louis:
See? Road team. I was wrong to pick against the Saints to cover last week. These tune-up games are perfect for them. They always win them in impressive fashion.
Arizona at Baltimore:
Joe Flacco struggled last week against Jacksonville. You know what's going to be best for what's ailing him? The crappy Cardinals secondary. Also, I think John Harbaugh has Suggs, Lewis, Ngata, and Reed that Kevin Kolb had group sex with their mothers. This one's gonna be ugly.
Miami at NY Giants:
Giants are finally getting healthy and the Dolphins are still completely terrible at the game of football.
Washington at Buffalo:
Half the guys on the Redskins are on injured reserve and the other half of them are just injured. This team is taking on serious amounts of water and they draw a well-rested Bills team playing at home. Not a good draw. I don't think this game is a blowout, but I think Buffalo wins comfortably and gets back on track.
Detroit at Denver:
I don't buy into Tebowmania and I just read that Matthew Stafford is practicing and should be available on Sunday. Denver and Tebow were barely good enough to beat the completely terrible Dolphins last week. It's gut check time for the Lions, who have the opportunity to gain half a game on the idle Packers. Interesting stat: Tebow was sacked seven times by the completely terrible Dolphins last week. Related sidenote: Detroit's defensive line is very, very good.
New England at Steelers:
Too much Tom Brady, their offensive line is too good, too much Wes Welker, their defense will do just enough to win this game. There are a bunch of reasons why the Patriots will win on Sunday. Check back later this week to find out what the Steelers need to do to win.
Cleveland at San Francisco:
Interesting sidenote: In my one league, I have Aaron Rodgers and he's on bye. A few weeks back, I picked up Alex Smith because I knew he was playing Cleveland this week. I also have Michael Crabtree. I dropped Smith and added Andy Dalton, because I think the Browns pass defense is pretty good. Cleveland needs to celebrate the small victories, because there's no way they're winning this game.
Cincinnati at Seattle:
OK. I can't believe I'm going to type this, but here goes: This prediction hangs on whether or not Tavaris Jackson plays. Jackson was inching his way towards respectability and I think he was very nearly there before he got hurt. I think he can make enough plays to win against a tough Cincy defense. I also think that the Bengals aren't ready to win this game. They're still young, it's a cross-country trip, Seattle plays better at home, and everyone on the Bengals had the bye week to read all about how they're a surprise team that's going to make some noise. Something about Cincinnati's history tells me that they choke this one away just as everyone is starting to believe in them.
Dallas at Philadelphia:
I had this game picked at the beginning of the season. Andy Reid has never lost a game following a bye (regular season only). Don't think about it too much, just follow me blindly.
San Diego at Kansas City:
- The Chiefs started out horrible, then lost a bunch of guys, then re-grouped.
- Todd Haley has realized that he can't run the same offense he wanted to when the season started and he has adjusted.
- The defense is improving.
- KC is trending positive, while the Chargers are trending negative.
- Norv Turner still coaches the San Diego Chargers.
- There is something wrong with Philip Rivers. I think he's hurt pretty badly, but he doesn't want anyone to know.
- This game is in Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. Everyone will be drunk and rowdy by kickoff and the fans will help the Chiefs take this game over.
This is a tough one. If the Patriots win, then they'll win by more than a field goal, so take them (-3 at Steelers). The line has already moved a point since Monday, so get on it now because it's only going to keep going up. I have not fully convinced myself that New England is going to win yet and I think the Lions (-3) at Denver is a safer bet. The Broncos suck something awful and Football Jesus isn't going to miracle them to victory this week. If Stafford plays -- and it looks like he is going to -- then they're pretty much a lock to cover.
Moneyline of the Week:
If Tavaris Jackson plays, take the Seahawks (+129) and the money and run. If he doesn't, the Chiefs look mighty attractive at (+171). Double your pleasure (and your money) and bet both!
Over/Under of the Week:
After last week's debacle -- I said to take the Over on Seahawks-Browns and they ended up combining for nine points -- I'm not going to get cute. Take the Under on Seahawks-Bengals. Both teams have consistently hit the under, regardless of opponents. Both teams are solid on defense and not so awesome on offense.
Tennessee over Indianapolis
Houston over Jacksonville
Carolina over Minnesota
NOLA over St. Louis
Baltimore over Arizona
NY Giants over Miami
Buffalo over Washington
Detroit over Denver
New England over Steelers
San Francisco over Cleveland
Seattle over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Dallas
Kansas City over San Diego
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Steelers West
Mostly good news this week, since the game wasn't really as close as the score would indicate.
- The game wasn't as close as the score would indicate. When it became 32-14 and the Steelers let up. They were more interested in taking time off the clock than stopping the Cardinals. They just wanted to make sure that Larry Fitzgerald didn't do anything crazy and he didn't. I'm not sure if they were just looking to make sure guys didn't get hurt, if they were trying to be good sports against their old coaches, but they let their foot off the gas. Against the 2008 or 2009 Cardinals, that would've been a huge mistake, but it's easy enough to get by the 2011 Cardinals when you build an 18 point lead. No lead is safe against the Patriots or the hated Ravens. If the Steelers manage to get a lead in those games, they should keep building on it until the game is over, if not after.
- As trips to the woodshed go, this was a pretty impressive beating. The pass rush got to Kolb, the defense forced a turnover, and the passing game lit it up, with 361 yards through the air and three touchdowns. The Steelers forced a safety. The defensive line looked solid and the linebackers were all over the field -- especially James Farrior, who is looking younger by the week, but still doesn't look young.
- Ike Taylor impressed me once again. It wouldn't be accurate to say that he shut Larry Fitzgerald down, but he did keep Fitz from taking over the game like he did in Super Bowl XLIII. Fitzgerald had four catches for 78 yards, but Taylor kept him out of the end zone and won more battles than he lost, even if you include penalty yards, as Fitzgerald was targeted ten times.
- I was surprised to discover that the Cardinals had as many sacks as the Steelers, with two. Maybe Ben Roethlisberger handled the pressure significantly better than Kolb. Maybe I've just become accustomed to Roethlisberger taking severe beatings every week and a constant barrage of pressure just looks normal to me. But, in my opinion, I thought the offensive line had another solid game in pass protection.
- Arizona had a big weakness in the secondary and the Steelers exploited it. They didn't throw 30 times in the first half, but they did plenty of damage with the shots they did take. These kinds of strategic moves -- and the fact that they made a high percentage of the plays that were available -- bode well for the rest of the season. Sure, they're a team that likes to throw the ball deep regardless of opponent, but they seemed to take more shots against the Cardinals and I was happy to see it. I would also like to mention that the Patriots have a very shaky pass defense.
Light on the bad news and some of it is nitpicky...
- Only forced one turnover, which brings them to three on the season. They're getting better at protecting the ball, but it's high time they started forcing their opponents into some bad decisions and mistakes.
- Nine penalties, though I think a third of those were on Taylor and at least one of those was ticky-tacky. Still, they can't commit nine penalties against New England and Baltimore and expect to win. Out of the nine penalties committed, three resulted in first downs for Arizona and there were two on the touchdown drive in the second quarter that helped keep that drive alive.
- I was also surprised to learn that the Steelers had 93 yards (taking out two kneel-downs by Roethlisberger). I figured the total was more like 60 or 70 yards, since they didn't seem to be in synch all game. Part of the issue was the attacking front seven for Arizona, but a larger part of the problem was that the Steelers weren't blowing up big holes for their backs. I think it's time to let Mendenhall get in there for four or five carries and see how it goes. If the line is pushing people off the ball, keep Rashard in. If they're not opening up holes, then it's time to put in Isaac Redman. Mendenhall averaged 2.5 yards a carry and Redman averaged 4.8. There's no question that Mendenhall is the more talented back, but there's also no question that Redman can do more with less. If there isn't a hole, he puts his head down and pushes ahead for at least a few yards. I don't think Mendenhall should lose his job, he's still their best option, but he's no longer the best option for every situation, so they need to start a committee approach. That also means getting Mewelde Moore involved, which will be covered in further detail in the Patriots preview.
- I love that Mike Wallace ended up with 118 yards and a touchdown. But, if you factor in that 95 of those yards came on one catch and that he was targeted seven times, that makes for a pretty inefficient game. I know that Wallace doesn't run a lot of high percentage routes, but they need to do better than three catches on seven targets. That would involve throwing more short passes his way, including some more of those quick slants that seem to have found their way out of the game plan.
- I still don't know if the Steelers are good, bad, great, average, or dominant. Right now, they're still miscellaneous. The good news in this bit of bad news is that they've won the games they were supposed to win thus far, so they're a 5-2 enigma instead of a 3-4 or 2-5 enigma. I guess that we can say we'll know more after Sunday's game against the Patriots. I just wish I knew more now.
I'll say that I'm satisfied by Sunday's performance, but I'll also say that I'm still worried.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Catching Up With Old Friends: Steelers at Steelers West Preview
There was a time when the Arizona Cardinals had about 30 percent former Steelers coaches and players on their team and most of them played major roles. Now, they have Nick Eason, Joey Porter, and Clark Haggans, and most of the overlaps are on the coaching side. They have Whisenhunt and Grimm and they recently hired Ray Horton -- former secondary coach for the Steelers -- to be their defensive coordinator. As a matter of fact, if you go to the Coaches page on the Cardinals website, Horton's head shot still has him wearing a Steelers polo.
Now, you may recall that the Steeler secondary was kind of a weak spot for the team the last... well, decade or so. But, most importantly, it wasn't a dominant unit from when he arrived in 2004 until he left in 2010. Now that he's working with a bunch of young players and a few stragglers -- I was surprised to find that Porter and Haggans were still starting -- the results have not been good. What I'm trying to say is that the Cardinals pass defense sucks.
If you look up the stats, you'll find that they're "only" ranked 20th in passing yardage allowed and that they've kept opposing quarterbacks to some pretty respectable numbers: eight yards per attempt, six touchdowns, four interceptions, an 87.7 quarterback rating. What those stats leave out -- and this is the kind of insider information you'll only find on Steelers N At -- is the fact that they've played Donovan McNabb (benched), Rex Grossman (benched), and Tavaris Jackson (benched). When they've faced quarterbacks that are halfway decent (Cam Newton, Eli Manning), they've gotten crushed. Ben Roethlisberger is better than "halfway decent," so that means the Steelers should throw the ball a lot.
I may be biased because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that Mike Wallace should get a lot of those targets. The Cardinals have already given up 26 passing plays of 20 yards or more and four passing plays of 40 yards or more. They've only played five games, so that means that they've given up about five passes of 20+ yards and one pass play of 40+ yards per game. As a point of comparison, through six games, the Steelers have given up ten pass plays of 20+ yards and zero pass plays of 40+ yards. On offense, they have 21 pass plays of 20+ yards and five of 40+ yards. When the Steelers pass the ball, they throw it a long ways down the field. The Cardinals are vulnerable to that. The best big play threat the Steelers have is Mike Wallace, so they should chuck it deep to him early and often.
They also have Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, who are two guys with some speed that can catch the deep ball. Hines Ward has been playing better and getting more involved in the offense the last couple of weeks and he will be a factor as well. I know I'm always preaching about how the Steelers need to control the clock and run the ball, but I definitely don't feel that way this week. This week, I think that Roethlisberger should have 30 pass attempts by halftime.
If he drops back 30 times, that means there's a higher risk of him getting sacked. Well, the Cardinals pass rush isn't exactly fearsome and the offensive line has been providing better pass protection of late. I think they're up to the challenge and, if they aren't, they can max protect. I think that three of our guys can still get open against six of theirs. Add in the fact that Horton is a secondary coach by trade and likes to blitz safeties and cornerbacks and you get a well-protected Roethlisberger throwing to explosive receivers against an undermanned and undertalented secondary.
I'm happy that Rashard Mendenhall played better last week and had bigger holes to run through. If Roethlisberger throws the ball 30 times in the first half, the Steelers will probably need Mendenhall in the second half to run the ball and protect the lead. I'm not a huge fan of that strategy, but I've come to accept that it's how the Steelers roll.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals don't scare me on offense. It's not just that they have Kevin Kolb at quarterback instead of Kurt Warner. It's that their offensive line lost a lot of veteran leadership and they're not as good as they were in 2008. It's that they also don't have Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. It's that I honestly believe that Ike Taylor will do a good job covering Larry Fitzgerald. There are two ways the Cardinals can stay in/win this game: 1. Larry goes off or, 2. The Steelers turn the ball over a lot. That's the full list. The only guy on this entire team that really scares me is Larry Fitzgerald.
Beanie Wells is like Rashard Mendenhall, only not as fast. He's a capable back, he's the best guy on the team, but he's not an elite guy. He's not MJD or Arian Foster or Chris Johnson or Ray Rice. He also can't beat you all by himself like those guys can. He can beat you all by himself like Fitzgerald can -- and almost did in Super Bowl XLIII.
I also think that, whatever advantage Whis and Grimm had in terms of familiarity with personnel is now gone. A lot of the same guys still play for the Steelers, but most of them are in new roles and there are more new faces than you'd think. Specifically, Whis never coached Wallace, Sanders, Mendenhall, or 80 percent of the offensive line. Bruce Arians has been running the same scheme for the last hundred years and LeBeau never shows you the same thing twice. This is Mike Tomlin's team now. They were really Bill Cowher's team the last time the Steelers traveled to Arizona in 2007.
If the Cardinals come out with the secondary back and try to guard against the deep ball, throw short. If they press, throw deep. If they blitz, max protect and throw deeper. The Steelers just need to pass early, they need to pass often, and they need to keep passing until they're pretty sure everyone is dead.
If they do that, then my prediction makes sense. If they try to control the clock and impose their will, they still win, just not by as much.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Steelers West 14
Now, you may recall that the Steeler secondary was kind of a weak spot for the team the last... well, decade or so. But, most importantly, it wasn't a dominant unit from when he arrived in 2004 until he left in 2010. Now that he's working with a bunch of young players and a few stragglers -- I was surprised to find that Porter and Haggans were still starting -- the results have not been good. What I'm trying to say is that the Cardinals pass defense sucks.
If you look up the stats, you'll find that they're "only" ranked 20th in passing yardage allowed and that they've kept opposing quarterbacks to some pretty respectable numbers: eight yards per attempt, six touchdowns, four interceptions, an 87.7 quarterback rating. What those stats leave out -- and this is the kind of insider information you'll only find on Steelers N At -- is the fact that they've played Donovan McNabb (benched), Rex Grossman (benched), and Tavaris Jackson (benched). When they've faced quarterbacks that are halfway decent (Cam Newton, Eli Manning), they've gotten crushed. Ben Roethlisberger is better than "halfway decent," so that means the Steelers should throw the ball a lot.
I may be biased because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that Mike Wallace should get a lot of those targets. The Cardinals have already given up 26 passing plays of 20 yards or more and four passing plays of 40 yards or more. They've only played five games, so that means that they've given up about five passes of 20+ yards and one pass play of 40+ yards per game. As a point of comparison, through six games, the Steelers have given up ten pass plays of 20+ yards and zero pass plays of 40+ yards. On offense, they have 21 pass plays of 20+ yards and five of 40+ yards. When the Steelers pass the ball, they throw it a long ways down the field. The Cardinals are vulnerable to that. The best big play threat the Steelers have is Mike Wallace, so they should chuck it deep to him early and often.
They also have Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, who are two guys with some speed that can catch the deep ball. Hines Ward has been playing better and getting more involved in the offense the last couple of weeks and he will be a factor as well. I know I'm always preaching about how the Steelers need to control the clock and run the ball, but I definitely don't feel that way this week. This week, I think that Roethlisberger should have 30 pass attempts by halftime.
If he drops back 30 times, that means there's a higher risk of him getting sacked. Well, the Cardinals pass rush isn't exactly fearsome and the offensive line has been providing better pass protection of late. I think they're up to the challenge and, if they aren't, they can max protect. I think that three of our guys can still get open against six of theirs. Add in the fact that Horton is a secondary coach by trade and likes to blitz safeties and cornerbacks and you get a well-protected Roethlisberger throwing to explosive receivers against an undermanned and undertalented secondary.
I'm happy that Rashard Mendenhall played better last week and had bigger holes to run through. If Roethlisberger throws the ball 30 times in the first half, the Steelers will probably need Mendenhall in the second half to run the ball and protect the lead. I'm not a huge fan of that strategy, but I've come to accept that it's how the Steelers roll.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals don't scare me on offense. It's not just that they have Kevin Kolb at quarterback instead of Kurt Warner. It's that their offensive line lost a lot of veteran leadership and they're not as good as they were in 2008. It's that they also don't have Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. It's that I honestly believe that Ike Taylor will do a good job covering Larry Fitzgerald. There are two ways the Cardinals can stay in/win this game: 1. Larry goes off or, 2. The Steelers turn the ball over a lot. That's the full list. The only guy on this entire team that really scares me is Larry Fitzgerald.
Beanie Wells is like Rashard Mendenhall, only not as fast. He's a capable back, he's the best guy on the team, but he's not an elite guy. He's not MJD or Arian Foster or Chris Johnson or Ray Rice. He also can't beat you all by himself like those guys can. He can beat you all by himself like Fitzgerald can -- and almost did in Super Bowl XLIII.
I also think that, whatever advantage Whis and Grimm had in terms of familiarity with personnel is now gone. A lot of the same guys still play for the Steelers, but most of them are in new roles and there are more new faces than you'd think. Specifically, Whis never coached Wallace, Sanders, Mendenhall, or 80 percent of the offensive line. Bruce Arians has been running the same scheme for the last hundred years and LeBeau never shows you the same thing twice. This is Mike Tomlin's team now. They were really Bill Cowher's team the last time the Steelers traveled to Arizona in 2007.
If the Cardinals come out with the secondary back and try to guard against the deep ball, throw short. If they press, throw deep. If they blitz, max protect and throw deeper. The Steelers just need to pass early, they need to pass often, and they need to keep passing until they're pretty sure everyone is dead.
If they do that, then my prediction makes sense. If they try to control the clock and impose their will, they still win, just not by as much.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Steelers West 14
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 7
Click here to view the Pick 'Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD).
Well, Keller took defeat so well last week that he's already called me out on Facebook. So that's...great. Let's see if I can repeat history and beat him again this week.
Denver at Miami
Miami is favored by a point this week, mainly 'cause they're at home. Man, this is a tough call. Denver, Simpsons, blah, blah, blah. Both teams suck, Denver just sucks a little less. They're the "smart" call in this game - but do I really think that Miami is gonna go 0-6 to start the season? No. Miami makes a stand and pulls this one off by the skin of their teeth.
Chargers at Jets
Another tough call, and I can feel my weekly pick-ship sinking already. In a reverse of DEN/MIA, these are two good(ish) teams. Chargers are coming off of a bye, and the Jets are 50/50 in ugly games this year. It's going to be close, but I think the Chargers are going home with a win.
Texans at Titans
Which team is Houston bringing? The team that beat us, Miami and Indy - or the team that lost to Oakland, Baltimore and NOLA? They've only won against crap teams (or a good team on a crappy week) and lost to solid ones. That makes it a tough call. The Titans are about as streaky, but their wins have been more convincing. They're at home, coming off a bye and look better.
Falcons at Lions
This one's easier. Detroit's my pick until they royally screw the pooch.
Redskins at Panthers
Warning: Dumb pick ahead. Yes - The Skins had a horrible game last week, they've benched Sexy, the Panthers are at home and favored...but I think this one is still going to the Skins. Panthers aren't that great, and I think that taking some eggs out of the Rexy basket is going to shake things up.
Bears "at" Bucs
Pip-pip, cheerio with a crumpet in the sticky wicket and some such poppycock. Merry old England, where the Bears are favored by a point - as well as a favored pick by a lot of experts. But leave us not forget that it's by one point. Let's look at an important intangible: Josh Freeman. His first NFL game was in London a few years ago and got royally crushed. I think that the drive to banish that ghost will be enough to over-come that one point deficit against the streaky Bears.
Seahawks at Browns
The teams are tied up on the season, but Cleveland is better and at home. Not much more to say about this game.
Steelers at Steelers West
We're favored, that's the good news. Bad news is, Arizona's a long ways away, and a surprising number of experts are picking the Red Ones. I'm not one of them. (A person picking the Cards or an expert.) Steelers win this one.
Chiefs at Raiders
Raiders are looking really good and are at home. Not only that, but they just picked up Palmer. Oakland isn't done making noise this season, and I don't see them dropping one at home this week.
Pack at Vikings
Nothing is worse than a bitter rivalry where one of the teams flat-out stinks like three-day-old vomit on a French Quarter sidewalk in August. I would like to take the remainder of this segment's space to discuss more weighty matters like, "How about the fact that the Power lost 'Total Chaos' Carter to the Predators. Doesn't that suck?" Discuss.
Rams at Cowboys
I mean, really. We have to play the Preds twice in the first 5 games this year - and now we have to face our former pass-rusher? Really? Oh - And Dallas is gonna crush the Rams.
Colts at Saints
Man...I wish I hadn't blown my vomit-in-the-Quarter line above. How about, "the Saints are going to crush them like a team that built its whole offense around one guy who hurt his neck and is missing the season"?
Ravens at Jags
Might as well close out the Wall of Shame section of this post by mentioning how much the Ravens are just going to steamroll the Jags.
Miami over Denver
Chargers over Jets
Titans over Texans
Lions over Falcons
Redskins over Panthers
Bucs over Bears
Browns over Seahawks
Steelers over Steelers West
Raiders over Chiefs
Pack over Vikings
Cowboys over Rams
Saints over Colts
Ravens over Jags
Well, Keller took defeat so well last week that he's already called me out on Facebook. So that's...great. Let's see if I can repeat history and beat him again this week.
Denver at Miami
Miami is favored by a point this week, mainly 'cause they're at home. Man, this is a tough call. Denver, Simpsons, blah, blah, blah. Both teams suck, Denver just sucks a little less. They're the "smart" call in this game - but do I really think that Miami is gonna go 0-6 to start the season? No. Miami makes a stand and pulls this one off by the skin of their teeth.
Chargers at Jets
Another tough call, and I can feel my weekly pick-ship sinking already. In a reverse of DEN/MIA, these are two good(ish) teams. Chargers are coming off of a bye, and the Jets are 50/50 in ugly games this year. It's going to be close, but I think the Chargers are going home with a win.
Texans at Titans
Which team is Houston bringing? The team that beat us, Miami and Indy - or the team that lost to Oakland, Baltimore and NOLA? They've only won against crap teams (or a good team on a crappy week) and lost to solid ones. That makes it a tough call. The Titans are about as streaky, but their wins have been more convincing. They're at home, coming off a bye and look better.
Falcons at Lions
This one's easier. Detroit's my pick until they royally screw the pooch.
Redskins at Panthers
Warning: Dumb pick ahead. Yes - The Skins had a horrible game last week, they've benched Sexy, the Panthers are at home and favored...but I think this one is still going to the Skins. Panthers aren't that great, and I think that taking some eggs out of the Rexy basket is going to shake things up.
Bears "at" Bucs
Pip-pip, cheerio with a crumpet in the sticky wicket and some such poppycock. Merry old England, where the Bears are favored by a point - as well as a favored pick by a lot of experts. But leave us not forget that it's by one point. Let's look at an important intangible: Josh Freeman. His first NFL game was in London a few years ago and got royally crushed. I think that the drive to banish that ghost will be enough to over-come that one point deficit against the streaky Bears.
Seahawks at Browns
The teams are tied up on the season, but Cleveland is better and at home. Not much more to say about this game.
Steelers at Steelers West
We're favored, that's the good news. Bad news is, Arizona's a long ways away, and a surprising number of experts are picking the Red Ones. I'm not one of them. (A person picking the Cards or an expert.) Steelers win this one.
Chiefs at Raiders
Raiders are looking really good and are at home. Not only that, but they just picked up Palmer. Oakland isn't done making noise this season, and I don't see them dropping one at home this week.
Pack at Vikings
Nothing is worse than a bitter rivalry where one of the teams flat-out stinks like three-day-old vomit on a French Quarter sidewalk in August. I would like to take the remainder of this segment's space to discuss more weighty matters like, "How about the fact that the Power lost 'Total Chaos' Carter to the Predators. Doesn't that suck?" Discuss.
Rams at Cowboys
I mean, really. We have to play the Preds twice in the first 5 games this year - and now we have to face our former pass-rusher? Really? Oh - And Dallas is gonna crush the Rams.
Colts at Saints
Man...I wish I hadn't blown my vomit-in-the-Quarter line above. How about, "the Saints are going to crush them like a team that built its whole offense around one guy who hurt his neck and is missing the season"?
Ravens at Jags
Might as well close out the Wall of Shame section of this post by mentioning how much the Ravens are just going to steamroll the Jags.
Miami over Denver
Chargers over Jets
Titans over Texans
Lions over Falcons
Redskins over Panthers
Bucs over Bears
Browns over Seahawks
Steelers over Steelers West
Raiders over Chiefs
Pack over Vikings
Cowboys over Rams
Saints over Colts
Ravens over Jags
Keller's Picks, Week 7
Click here to view the Pick 'Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD).
I lost a game off my Pick 'Em lead last week, so I need to buckle down. This is an interesting slate of games, since there are a number that could go either way (what I like to call "swing" games). I've done well in my swing games thus far this season against Weidman, which of course means that he'll either pick all the same winners as me this week. If he doesn't, go with his picks. Just to switch it up.
Chicago at Tampa:
When in doubt, go with the... oh, wait. This game is being played in London, which basically means that the Bucs get screwed out of a home game. My opinion of the Bears changes from week to week, but this week I'm high on them. I think that Mike Martz calls a pretty conservative game, Matt Forte has a pretty big day, and Chicago does just enough on offense and defense to survive across the pond.
Washington at Carolina:
I spent the whole season backing Sexy Rexy, then he turned in a QBERT rating of -15 against the Eagles last week. Now, the John Beck Era begins in Washington. I think Cam Newton's legs make the difference in this game, because pretty much everything else is a wash. Also, Panthers are at home.
San Diego at NY Jets:
Jets have a short week and looked pretty underwhelming against a godawful Dolphins team. Chargers had a bye week to get healthy, which was their biggest issue thus far this season. Considering that they went 4-1 with 14 players on the active roster, I'd say they're a pretty good team.
Seattle at Cleveland:
I really don't want to take the Browns, but they're at home and the Seahawks still have Tavaris Jackson and his 13.2 QBERT rating at quarterback.
Houston at Tennessee:
The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for the Texans and two weeks to think about how bad the Steelers beat them in Week 5. Houston has a pretty ordinary offense without Andre Johnson. They have a pretty ordinary defense without Mario Williams. Ordinary won't get it done against a well-rested Hasselbeck in Nashville.
Denver at Miami:
I mentioned that the Dolphins are godawful, right? Well, they are. I know that the Broncos just traded their best receiver and that they suck pretty bad and they're on the road. But, Miami is 1-10 in their last 11 home games, so I wouldn't give them much of a home field advantage. There is also the emergence of the Football Jesus himself, Tim Tebow. He just wins. He's a competitor. He's a leader. TIM TEBOW'S QBERT IS UNDEFINED BECAUSE HE DIVIDES BY ZERO. Seriously, though, these are two crappy teams. You go with the one that has the player with the most ability and the most upside, which is the Denver Broncos.
Atlanta at Detroit:
The Lions burned me last week, but I'm willing to give them another chance. Because they're at home. And Atlanta is still in the penalty box. And Detroit's defensive line will take this game over because they will destroy Matt Ryan and bottle Michael Turner up.
Kansas City at Oakland:
Carson Palmer on three days of practice... or KC? That's a tough call. When in doubt, take the home team. Also, I carefully devised this equation:
Playing for Dead Owner + Rallying Around New Quarterback + At Home > Kansas City Chiefs
If this game were at Arrowhead or if somehow managed to die again, then I would take the Chiefs. I can't believe I keep backing the Raiders even though, up until about a week ago, I actually thought their head coach's name was Huey Lewis.
Steelers at Steelers West:
I know their defensive coordinators used to coach our defensive backs. I know Whis and Grimm are still there. I know they have a lot of former Steelers. I know they're tough at home. I also know that their secondary sucks, Beanie Wells can't get out of his own way, and Kevin Kolb is only a slight upgrade over Max Hall.
St. Louis at Dallas:
The Rams will break out of this funk at some point. Brandon Lloyd will help. Sam Bradford getting healthy will help. Playing the NFC West will help. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are fired up this week, they're at home, and they're a way better team than St. Louis.
Green Bay at Minnesota:
Do... do we really need an explanation on this one? If I had picked the Vikings, would you have been like, "Oh, hey, well if Keller thinks they're gonna win, then yeah." If so, I'm flattered. I'm also a little ashamed.
Indianapolis at NOLA:
The Saints aren't the rolling juggernaut they once appeared to be, but they're plenty good enough to beat the Colts.
Baltimore at Jacksonville:
See: Pick, Green Bay at Minnesota.
Line of the Week:
Indianapolis (+14) at NOLA. The Saints are much better than the Colts and they will win this game. But, two touchdowns? And that's a push? The New Orleans defense is too shaky to blow anyone out that bad.
Moneyline of the Week:
Denver (+112) at Miami. Tebow can divide by zero. Also, Miami sucks real bad and they've lost 10 of their last 11 at home.
Over/Under of the Week:
Seattle at Cleveland (41, OVER). Two mediocre defenses and it's October, so it's not like there will be three feet of snow. Three feet of snow is the only thing that will keep this at the under.
Chicago over Tampa
Carolina over Washington
San Diego over NY Jets
Cleveland over Seattle
Tennessee over Houston
Denver over Miami
Detroit over Atlanta
Oakland over Kansas City
Steelers over Steelers West
Dallas over St. Louis
Green Bay over Minnesota
NOLA over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Jacksonville
I lost a game off my Pick 'Em lead last week, so I need to buckle down. This is an interesting slate of games, since there are a number that could go either way (what I like to call "swing" games). I've done well in my swing games thus far this season against Weidman, which of course means that he'll either pick all the same winners as me this week. If he doesn't, go with his picks. Just to switch it up.
Chicago at Tampa:
When in doubt, go with the... oh, wait. This game is being played in London, which basically means that the Bucs get screwed out of a home game. My opinion of the Bears changes from week to week, but this week I'm high on them. I think that Mike Martz calls a pretty conservative game, Matt Forte has a pretty big day, and Chicago does just enough on offense and defense to survive across the pond.
Washington at Carolina:
I spent the whole season backing Sexy Rexy, then he turned in a QBERT rating of -15 against the Eagles last week. Now, the John Beck Era begins in Washington. I think Cam Newton's legs make the difference in this game, because pretty much everything else is a wash. Also, Panthers are at home.
San Diego at NY Jets:
Jets have a short week and looked pretty underwhelming against a godawful Dolphins team. Chargers had a bye week to get healthy, which was their biggest issue thus far this season. Considering that they went 4-1 with 14 players on the active roster, I'd say they're a pretty good team.
Seattle at Cleveland:
I really don't want to take the Browns, but they're at home and the Seahawks still have Tavaris Jackson and his 13.2 QBERT rating at quarterback.
Houston at Tennessee:
The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for the Texans and two weeks to think about how bad the Steelers beat them in Week 5. Houston has a pretty ordinary offense without Andre Johnson. They have a pretty ordinary defense without Mario Williams. Ordinary won't get it done against a well-rested Hasselbeck in Nashville.
Denver at Miami:
I mentioned that the Dolphins are godawful, right? Well, they are. I know that the Broncos just traded their best receiver and that they suck pretty bad and they're on the road. But, Miami is 1-10 in their last 11 home games, so I wouldn't give them much of a home field advantage. There is also the emergence of the Football Jesus himself, Tim Tebow. He just wins. He's a competitor. He's a leader. TIM TEBOW'S QBERT IS UNDEFINED BECAUSE HE DIVIDES BY ZERO. Seriously, though, these are two crappy teams. You go with the one that has the player with the most ability and the most upside, which is the Denver Broncos.
Atlanta at Detroit:
The Lions burned me last week, but I'm willing to give them another chance. Because they're at home. And Atlanta is still in the penalty box. And Detroit's defensive line will take this game over because they will destroy Matt Ryan and bottle Michael Turner up.
Kansas City at Oakland:
Carson Palmer on three days of practice... or KC? That's a tough call. When in doubt, take the home team. Also, I carefully devised this equation:
Playing for Dead Owner + Rallying Around New Quarterback + At Home > Kansas City Chiefs
If this game were at Arrowhead or if somehow managed to die again, then I would take the Chiefs. I can't believe I keep backing the Raiders even though, up until about a week ago, I actually thought their head coach's name was Huey Lewis.
Steelers at Steelers West:
I know their defensive coordinators used to coach our defensive backs. I know Whis and Grimm are still there. I know they have a lot of former Steelers. I know they're tough at home. I also know that their secondary sucks, Beanie Wells can't get out of his own way, and Kevin Kolb is only a slight upgrade over Max Hall.
St. Louis at Dallas:
The Rams will break out of this funk at some point. Brandon Lloyd will help. Sam Bradford getting healthy will help. Playing the NFC West will help. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are fired up this week, they're at home, and they're a way better team than St. Louis.
Green Bay at Minnesota:
Do... do we really need an explanation on this one? If I had picked the Vikings, would you have been like, "Oh, hey, well if Keller thinks they're gonna win, then yeah." If so, I'm flattered. I'm also a little ashamed.
Indianapolis at NOLA:
The Saints aren't the rolling juggernaut they once appeared to be, but they're plenty good enough to beat the Colts.
Baltimore at Jacksonville:
See: Pick, Green Bay at Minnesota.
Line of the Week:
Indianapolis (+14) at NOLA. The Saints are much better than the Colts and they will win this game. But, two touchdowns? And that's a push? The New Orleans defense is too shaky to blow anyone out that bad.
Moneyline of the Week:
Denver (+112) at Miami. Tebow can divide by zero. Also, Miami sucks real bad and they've lost 10 of their last 11 at home.
Over/Under of the Week:
Seattle at Cleveland (41, OVER). Two mediocre defenses and it's October, so it's not like there will be three feet of snow. Three feet of snow is the only thing that will keep this at the under.
Chicago over Tampa
Carolina over Washington
San Diego over NY Jets
Cleveland over Seattle
Tennessee over Houston
Denver over Miami
Detroit over Atlanta
Oakland over Kansas City
Steelers over Steelers West
Dallas over St. Louis
Green Bay over Minnesota
NOLA over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Jacksonville
Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs Jaguars
I tried to get started on writing this a number of times yesterday and really couldn't come up with an angle. It's basically the same story as it was against the Seahawks and the Colts: The Steelers won, they did some things well, but it's not as though there was any catharsis behind the victory. Week 5 against the Titans was a catharsis game. They took out all the frustration and anxiety of the season out on an opponent that thought they had a chance to win, but didn't know what hit them.
Unlike most situations, you root for the bully when they're your team. It's a guilty pleasure, because everyone still gets paid regardless of the outcome, you just hope no one gets seriously injured. If your team beats another team senseless, there's a sense of satisfaction and relief. You're satisfied that you follow a good team and you're relieved that there isn't a fourth quarter/Hail Mary situation like we had on Sunday. When you expect your team to crush the other team, you're unsatisfied and worried if they don't. I would say that I'm dissatisfied with Sunday's performance, but I'm not worried.
The Jaguars are a young team and they'll improve. One of the steps toward improvement is not giving up. They didn't give up in the second half and everyone was pretty much expecting them to. I think the second half was more a result of improved effort and execution by Jacksonville than the Steelers slacking off, not being a good team, or not executing properly. Ben Roethlisberger was off all game, it's just that it was windy in the second half, so that made it look like he took a nosedive. There were plays to be made, the Steelers just didn't make all of them. What they did do is make enough plays to win, which is sufficient, even if it's not satisfying.
I'm not worried because the plays were there. Those plays only need to be made eventually and consistently, not every time. If a team hit every big play that was available to them, they'd be unstoppable. I'm not looking for unstoppable, I'm looking for great. Great means making more plays than you miss. Roethlisberger may have another "off" game this season, but he won't be this far off very often. And, even though he was off, he still managed 8.7 yards per attempt and 16.7 yards per completion, and I will take that.
I'm not worried because I'm actually starting to believe that the offensive line will come together and be a good unit. That's provided they have the same five guys in the starting line-up for consecutive weeks, which hasn't happened yet. The good news is that they've played fairly well the past few games even though there have been a lot of injuries. I think the pass protection continues to be consistent and the running game continues to improve. As he showed, Rashard Mendenhall can do a lot of damage if there's solid blocking in front of him. He's their best option. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer wouldn't have scored a touchdown in the first quarter with the same blocking. They would've gotten stopped at the one or two yard line and I think we all know how dicey things have been for the Steelers inside the five the past few years.
I'm not worried because William Gay and Ike Taylor have been playing quite well. Ryan Clark has stepped up his game. Troy Polamalu has been much more controlled the past two games, but he hasn't lost any of his explosiveness. More importantly, he passed concussion tests this week, so he should be available for Steelers West. Brett Keisel made a triumphant return to the line-up. LaMarr Woodley is playing out of his mind, which makes up for the fact that James Harrison is out. Farrior and Timmons are much improved, though Timmons looks like he still has room to improve.
The only thing that concerns me is turnovers. They've done a better job of protecting the ball the past couple of weeks, but they're still not taking it away. Forcing two turnovers in six games is not getting it done. As I've mentioned before, turnovers can be the result of tipped passed and lucky bounces, but you also make your own luck. That's why they call it forcing turnovers.
But, they're also 4-2 after six games and only half a game behind the hated Ravens for the division lead. Now is not the time to panic. There will be plenty of time for that later.
Unlike most situations, you root for the bully when they're your team. It's a guilty pleasure, because everyone still gets paid regardless of the outcome, you just hope no one gets seriously injured. If your team beats another team senseless, there's a sense of satisfaction and relief. You're satisfied that you follow a good team and you're relieved that there isn't a fourth quarter/Hail Mary situation like we had on Sunday. When you expect your team to crush the other team, you're unsatisfied and worried if they don't. I would say that I'm dissatisfied with Sunday's performance, but I'm not worried.
The Jaguars are a young team and they'll improve. One of the steps toward improvement is not giving up. They didn't give up in the second half and everyone was pretty much expecting them to. I think the second half was more a result of improved effort and execution by Jacksonville than the Steelers slacking off, not being a good team, or not executing properly. Ben Roethlisberger was off all game, it's just that it was windy in the second half, so that made it look like he took a nosedive. There were plays to be made, the Steelers just didn't make all of them. What they did do is make enough plays to win, which is sufficient, even if it's not satisfying.
I'm not worried because the plays were there. Those plays only need to be made eventually and consistently, not every time. If a team hit every big play that was available to them, they'd be unstoppable. I'm not looking for unstoppable, I'm looking for great. Great means making more plays than you miss. Roethlisberger may have another "off" game this season, but he won't be this far off very often. And, even though he was off, he still managed 8.7 yards per attempt and 16.7 yards per completion, and I will take that.
I'm not worried because I'm actually starting to believe that the offensive line will come together and be a good unit. That's provided they have the same five guys in the starting line-up for consecutive weeks, which hasn't happened yet. The good news is that they've played fairly well the past few games even though there have been a lot of injuries. I think the pass protection continues to be consistent and the running game continues to improve. As he showed, Rashard Mendenhall can do a lot of damage if there's solid blocking in front of him. He's their best option. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer wouldn't have scored a touchdown in the first quarter with the same blocking. They would've gotten stopped at the one or two yard line and I think we all know how dicey things have been for the Steelers inside the five the past few years.
I'm not worried because William Gay and Ike Taylor have been playing quite well. Ryan Clark has stepped up his game. Troy Polamalu has been much more controlled the past two games, but he hasn't lost any of his explosiveness. More importantly, he passed concussion tests this week, so he should be available for Steelers West. Brett Keisel made a triumphant return to the line-up. LaMarr Woodley is playing out of his mind, which makes up for the fact that James Harrison is out. Farrior and Timmons are much improved, though Timmons looks like he still has room to improve.
The only thing that concerns me is turnovers. They've done a better job of protecting the ball the past couple of weeks, but they're still not taking it away. Forcing two turnovers in six games is not getting it done. As I've mentioned before, turnovers can be the result of tipped passed and lucky bounces, but you also make your own luck. That's why they call it forcing turnovers.
But, they're also 4-2 after six games and only half a game behind the hated Ravens for the division lead. Now is not the time to panic. There will be plenty of time for that later.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Containing MJD: Steelers vs. Jaguars Preview
I originally thought about calling this post, "No Time for Love, Dr. Jones," but then I thought I'd need to add the hyphen and the "Drew" and then would anyone get the joke, and... well, I decided to leave all the 80s movies reference in the post itself and leave them out of the name. I only have one more, anyway, so it's not like I could develop a theme.
The post's name says it all: Stop Maurice Jones-Drew and you stop the Jacksonville offense. I don't think the Steelers need to bottle him up like they did against Chris Johnson last week -- although that would be nice -- since I think they can still win the game even if he gets 100 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars are about as talented as the Colts, but the primary differences are that their running back is better, their quarterback is younger, they don't have two all-star pass rushers, and they're not playing at home. Indianapolis almost beat the Steelers because Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and the home crowd took over the game. But, the key word there is almost, seeing as how the Steelers won that game and all. If MJD stays under 125 yards and only scores one touchdown, then he will be more than contained enough and the Steelers will win a close game. If MJD gets taken out of the game plan -- either because he's averaging two yards a carry or the Steelers have a two touchdown lead in the second half -- then the Steelers will win like they did against the Titans last week.
Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert is not as good as Matt Hasselbeck. Jacksonville went from David Garrard to Luke McCown to Gabbert and they got worse each time. But, sucking it up and going to the rookie quarterback is like giving dry birth to a porcupine; it's rough and it's painful, but it's gotta be done sometime. Mike Thomas is not as talented as Nate Washington. Ike Taylor was able to handle Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans, and did well against Andre Johnson, so he can more than handle Thomas. The trouble for the Jaguars is that Thomas has almost twice as many targets as any other pass catcher on the team, so Gabbert might throw the ball at him even if he's covered. That could mean that the Steelers could finally record their second interception of the season, which would make this a banner day.
Tight end Marcedes Lewis has only eight catches and 16 targets on the season and MJD has only been targeted 11 times as a receiver. If Gabbert looks at those guys a little more, then Jacksonville will get something out of the pass offense, but it won't be enough.
In order to stop MJD, you need to do a lot of the things that the Steelers did against CJ last week. Sound tackling, gap discipline, backside contain, excellent pursuit. But, you also need to bear in mind that he's a lot harder to tackle than anyone that usually carries a football. He's already short and he tends to run with a lower pad level than someone his height. At some point, he figured out that defenses would stop trying to tackle his legs and hips because they're so well-developed. That means that people who are trying to tackle him concentrate on his torso/head/shoulders area. As a result, MJD makes a lot of moves and jukes with his torso and leads in a given direction with his shoulders, when really it's his legs that control where he's headed. No one notices what he's doing with his legs because they're trying to tackle his shoulders. The tackler lunges the wrong way and MJD is off to the races.
Then there's the fact that he's short, powerful, and runs with a very low pad level. That means that, even if you managed to get your hands on him, you're probably going for a two yard ride. So, the secret is to focus on his feet, don't let him get low, and put someone in front of him that will make him want to juke. While he's juking, two dudes have to come in and tackle him. He's also a very patient runner, which means that stretching the play out and pushing him to the sidelines cuts out some of his options and makes it easier to push him out of bounds. Basically, if the Steelers can accomplish the same gap-shooting, gang tackling effort that they produced on defense last week, they can have similar -- and even better -- results against MJD.
Jacksonville's two best defensive linemen are defensive tackles -- Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton -- who are better at stopping the run than they are rushing the passer. They signed Aaron Kampman in the offseason, but he's been banged up and isn't enough of threat to single-handedly kill Ben Roethlisberger. They don't have enough of a pass rush to get to him enough to make him do something stupid. Or, at least not frequently enough that he makes as many mistakes as he did against the hated Ravens, and therefore costs the Steelers the game. This means that Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw and his likelihood of getting murdered is quite low. When he has time to throw, he's incredibly effective.
The only real way the Jaguars can get in his face is by blitzing him a lot. By a lot, I mean rushing six or more guys regularly. If they blitz Roethlisberger, he will destroy them. So, here's to hoping they blitz Roethlisberger.
Rasean Mathis will probably cover Mike Wallace. Mathis is a good player and has had success against the Steelers in the past, but he's not fast enough to cover Wallace and he's too aggressive, which means he'll take chances that he won't be able to compensate for. He'll probably start the game playing with a 7-10 yard cushion on Wallace, which leaves him open to those quick slants that the Steelers like to throw. If they throw enough of them, Mathis will start to creep in. At that point, fake the quick slant and have Wallace streak up the field. They can also try this with Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Hines Ward made his triumphant return to relevance last week and he'll be covered by Derek Cox. Derek Cox is not a very good player, so Ward might get some more looks in the red zone. The Jacksonville safeties are underrated and pretty versatile, but I think this defense is on the short end of too many match-ups for the safeties to swing the game.
Unless the Steelers commit seven turnovers again or allow MJD to gash them for 150 or more yards, I don't think the Jaguars win this game. But, I think that Jacksonville will hang in there enough and get get MJD close enough to 150 yards that they'll make it interesting. I also think the fact that their run defense is pretty stout and that the Steelers will still try to run at it -- even if they're not successful -- means that this game stays relatively close. The Steelers won't cover, is I guess what I'm trying to say.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Jaguars 14
The post's name says it all: Stop Maurice Jones-Drew and you stop the Jacksonville offense. I don't think the Steelers need to bottle him up like they did against Chris Johnson last week -- although that would be nice -- since I think they can still win the game even if he gets 100 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars are about as talented as the Colts, but the primary differences are that their running back is better, their quarterback is younger, they don't have two all-star pass rushers, and they're not playing at home. Indianapolis almost beat the Steelers because Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and the home crowd took over the game. But, the key word there is almost, seeing as how the Steelers won that game and all. If MJD stays under 125 yards and only scores one touchdown, then he will be more than contained enough and the Steelers will win a close game. If MJD gets taken out of the game plan -- either because he's averaging two yards a carry or the Steelers have a two touchdown lead in the second half -- then the Steelers will win like they did against the Titans last week.
Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert is not as good as Matt Hasselbeck. Jacksonville went from David Garrard to Luke McCown to Gabbert and they got worse each time. But, sucking it up and going to the rookie quarterback is like giving dry birth to a porcupine; it's rough and it's painful, but it's gotta be done sometime. Mike Thomas is not as talented as Nate Washington. Ike Taylor was able to handle Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans, and did well against Andre Johnson, so he can more than handle Thomas. The trouble for the Jaguars is that Thomas has almost twice as many targets as any other pass catcher on the team, so Gabbert might throw the ball at him even if he's covered. That could mean that the Steelers could finally record their second interception of the season, which would make this a banner day.
Tight end Marcedes Lewis has only eight catches and 16 targets on the season and MJD has only been targeted 11 times as a receiver. If Gabbert looks at those guys a little more, then Jacksonville will get something out of the pass offense, but it won't be enough.
In order to stop MJD, you need to do a lot of the things that the Steelers did against CJ last week. Sound tackling, gap discipline, backside contain, excellent pursuit. But, you also need to bear in mind that he's a lot harder to tackle than anyone that usually carries a football. He's already short and he tends to run with a lower pad level than someone his height. At some point, he figured out that defenses would stop trying to tackle his legs and hips because they're so well-developed. That means that people who are trying to tackle him concentrate on his torso/head/shoulders area. As a result, MJD makes a lot of moves and jukes with his torso and leads in a given direction with his shoulders, when really it's his legs that control where he's headed. No one notices what he's doing with his legs because they're trying to tackle his shoulders. The tackler lunges the wrong way and MJD is off to the races.
Then there's the fact that he's short, powerful, and runs with a very low pad level. That means that, even if you managed to get your hands on him, you're probably going for a two yard ride. So, the secret is to focus on his feet, don't let him get low, and put someone in front of him that will make him want to juke. While he's juking, two dudes have to come in and tackle him. He's also a very patient runner, which means that stretching the play out and pushing him to the sidelines cuts out some of his options and makes it easier to push him out of bounds. Basically, if the Steelers can accomplish the same gap-shooting, gang tackling effort that they produced on defense last week, they can have similar -- and even better -- results against MJD.
Jacksonville's two best defensive linemen are defensive tackles -- Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton -- who are better at stopping the run than they are rushing the passer. They signed Aaron Kampman in the offseason, but he's been banged up and isn't enough of threat to single-handedly kill Ben Roethlisberger. They don't have enough of a pass rush to get to him enough to make him do something stupid. Or, at least not frequently enough that he makes as many mistakes as he did against the hated Ravens, and therefore costs the Steelers the game. This means that Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw and his likelihood of getting murdered is quite low. When he has time to throw, he's incredibly effective.
The only real way the Jaguars can get in his face is by blitzing him a lot. By a lot, I mean rushing six or more guys regularly. If they blitz Roethlisberger, he will destroy them. So, here's to hoping they blitz Roethlisberger.
Rasean Mathis will probably cover Mike Wallace. Mathis is a good player and has had success against the Steelers in the past, but he's not fast enough to cover Wallace and he's too aggressive, which means he'll take chances that he won't be able to compensate for. He'll probably start the game playing with a 7-10 yard cushion on Wallace, which leaves him open to those quick slants that the Steelers like to throw. If they throw enough of them, Mathis will start to creep in. At that point, fake the quick slant and have Wallace streak up the field. They can also try this with Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Hines Ward made his triumphant return to relevance last week and he'll be covered by Derek Cox. Derek Cox is not a very good player, so Ward might get some more looks in the red zone. The Jacksonville safeties are underrated and pretty versatile, but I think this defense is on the short end of too many match-ups for the safeties to swing the game.
Unless the Steelers commit seven turnovers again or allow MJD to gash them for 150 or more yards, I don't think the Jaguars win this game. But, I think that Jacksonville will hang in there enough and get get MJD close enough to 150 yards that they'll make it interesting. I also think the fact that their run defense is pretty stout and that the Steelers will still try to run at it -- even if they're not successful -- means that this game stays relatively close. The Steelers won't cover, is I guess what I'm trying to say.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Jaguars 14
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 6
Click here to view the current standings (week-by-week and YTD)
Keller and I tied last week at 9-4, but it really should have been a higher tie. A few teams came from behind and pulled off upsets that shouldn't have happened. But hey, thems the breaks, right? Now, on to week six.
Buffalo at Giants
Okay, Giants are at home and favored (probably because of it), but the Bills are going to pull it off.
Colts at Bungles
Did you ever thing you'd see the day where the Bungles are the easy pick over the Colts? I sure didn't. But I also didn't think that I'd have gone months without seeing Peyton hawking TVs and credit cards, but there you have it.
Jags at Steelers
I realize that Keller has no faith in the Steelers this season - I mean, he picked the Titans last week - but this is another easy call. Steelers are at home, the Jags suck this year and we're gonna see a W this weekend.
Eagles at Redskins
Sometimes I don't know what Vegas is thinking. Eagles haven't shown anything of value overall this season, Washington's at home and Sexy Rexy has only dropped one game this season - yet somehow, The Dream Team is favored. This one is going to the Redskins.
Niners at Detroit
It's a topsy-turvy world that makes my first tough call of the week be "who's gonna win, Niners or Detroit." Okay, it wasn't that hard - I think the Lions are going to win at least one more week.
Rams at Pack
If you're reading my blog post to make your decision on this game...I don't know what to tell you. Maybe pick 'ems aren't for you.
Panthers at Falcons
Not much good to say about either team. If anything, the Falcons are a hair better and are at home. Take the home team.
Browns at Raiders
I hate, hate, hate the term, "they're better than their record," but...the Raiders are better than their record. The Browns are...the Browns. I'm also sure that the Raiders are still going to riding a high of winning one for the Gipper (Davis), so I see them pulling it off.
Texans at Ravens
I know I've picked a lot of home teams this week, and I promise that I'm not being lazy, but I need to pick them again. These are the two teams that trounced us this year, and they're both very, very good. However, the Ravens are better.
Saints at Bucs
See? Not the home team. Not to belittle the Bucs, but the Saints are still a Super Bowl-worthy team and the Bucs aren't right now.
Cowboys at Pats
Aaaaaaand, back to form. Home team is going to win here, because it's Brady. And he's at home. And the Cowboys are pretty 'meh.' It's going to be a win for New England, not by a little bit.
Vikings at Bears
As I've said, the Bears have looked shaky best this year, but the Vikings have looked far, far worse. Sure, they're coming off a big win last week, but...they're still the Vikings.
Dolphins at Jets
Might as well finish the home-team love strong and go with the Jets here. They're angry about losing last week to the Pats, and now that they're home and playing cream-puffs, I figure they're going to work out some frustrations.
Buffalo over Giants
Bungles over Colts
Steelers over Jags
Redskins over Eagles
Detroit over Niners
Pack over Rams
Falcons over Panthers
Raiders over Browns
Ravens over Texans
Saints over Bucs
Pats over Cowboys
Bears over Vikings
Jets over Dolphins
Keller and I tied last week at 9-4, but it really should have been a higher tie. A few teams came from behind and pulled off upsets that shouldn't have happened. But hey, thems the breaks, right? Now, on to week six.
Buffalo at Giants
Okay, Giants are at home and favored (probably because of it), but the Bills are going to pull it off.
Colts at Bungles
Did you ever thing you'd see the day where the Bungles are the easy pick over the Colts? I sure didn't. But I also didn't think that I'd have gone months without seeing Peyton hawking TVs and credit cards, but there you have it.
Jags at Steelers
I realize that Keller has no faith in the Steelers this season - I mean, he picked the Titans last week - but this is another easy call. Steelers are at home, the Jags suck this year and we're gonna see a W this weekend.
Eagles at Redskins
Sometimes I don't know what Vegas is thinking. Eagles haven't shown anything of value overall this season, Washington's at home and Sexy Rexy has only dropped one game this season - yet somehow, The Dream Team is favored. This one is going to the Redskins.
Niners at Detroit
It's a topsy-turvy world that makes my first tough call of the week be "who's gonna win, Niners or Detroit." Okay, it wasn't that hard - I think the Lions are going to win at least one more week.
Rams at Pack
If you're reading my blog post to make your decision on this game...I don't know what to tell you. Maybe pick 'ems aren't for you.
Panthers at Falcons
Not much good to say about either team. If anything, the Falcons are a hair better and are at home. Take the home team.
Browns at Raiders
I hate, hate, hate the term, "they're better than their record," but...the Raiders are better than their record. The Browns are...the Browns. I'm also sure that the Raiders are still going to riding a high of winning one for the Gipper (Davis), so I see them pulling it off.
Texans at Ravens
I know I've picked a lot of home teams this week, and I promise that I'm not being lazy, but I need to pick them again. These are the two teams that trounced us this year, and they're both very, very good. However, the Ravens are better.
Saints at Bucs
See? Not the home team. Not to belittle the Bucs, but the Saints are still a Super Bowl-worthy team and the Bucs aren't right now.
Cowboys at Pats
Aaaaaaand, back to form. Home team is going to win here, because it's Brady. And he's at home. And the Cowboys are pretty 'meh.' It's going to be a win for New England, not by a little bit.
Vikings at Bears
As I've said, the Bears have looked shaky best this year, but the Vikings have looked far, far worse. Sure, they're coming off a big win last week, but...they're still the Vikings.
Dolphins at Jets
Might as well finish the home-team love strong and go with the Jets here. They're angry about losing last week to the Pats, and now that they're home and playing cream-puffs, I figure they're going to work out some frustrations.
Buffalo over Giants
Bungles over Colts
Steelers over Jags
Redskins over Eagles
Detroit over Niners
Pack over Rams
Falcons over Panthers
Raiders over Browns
Ravens over Texans
Saints over Bucs
Pats over Cowboys
Bears over Vikings
Jets over Dolphins
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Keller's Picks, Week 6
Click here to view the current standings (week-by-week and YTD)
Well, continuing to bet against the Dream Team worked out. I am going to keep riding their losing streak until they prove they can win. I also picked the Giants to beat the Seahawks in my Survivor Pool, so I'm eliminated from that. That just gives me more time to continue my Steelers N At Pick Em Domination.
St. Louis at Green Bay:
The Packers are an unstoppable force, the Rams are a moveable object. This one is probably going to get ugly. Since that's my prediction, I think that means that you shouldn't take the Packers if you're still alive in your Survivor Pool.
Jacksonville at Steelers:
If the Steelers play like they did in Week 5 against the Titans, this one could get ugly. If they play like they did against Indy and Seattle, then they still win (and possibly cover). Ben Roethlisberger saw his QBERT rating jump to 93.4. Blaine Gabbert's rating has seen considerable improvement in the past few weeks, but he started at 8.7, so...
Philadelphia at Washington:
Same script as last week: Eagles have one win, opponent has one loss and is at home, yet Philly is somehow favored in this game. I'm still not 100% sold on Washington, but I'm 100% sold on picking against the Eagles. I know the Dream Team will eventually prove me wrong, but I don't think it's this week. At least I hope it's not this week.
San Francisco at Detroit:
I'm sold on the 49ers, but I'm also sold on the Lions. The game is in Detroit and Matthew Stafford and company really look like they want to prove they're for real. A 6-0 start would go a long way towards proving that. If the 9ers win, they will suddenly show up on the radar of a whole lot of people.
Carolina at Atlanta:
After weeks of trying and failing, the Panthers finally complete an upset. Sure, they're 1-4, but they've been competitive in all their games, which is more than you can say for the Falcons. Atlanta's pass defense and pass rush have been suspect and they won't be able to win a shoot out if Julio Jones can't play.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati:
The Curtis Painter Experiment is showing signs of improvement, but he hasn't faced a defense as good as the Bengals. I can't believe I just typed that. Also, Cincy would have a decent shot at the playoffs with a strong defense, AJ Green, and a weak schedule, if only they didn't have an uncoordinated ginger at quarterback. Can't believe I just type that, either. I think I should move on.
Buffalo at NY Giants:
I think I may be channeling my anger at the Giants because of the Survivor Pool thing and that is affecting my judgment. But, I can't shake the feeling that the Bills have enough on offense to outscore the Giants. I don't have enough doubt in my heart to pick the home team.
Houston at Baltimore:
I don't doubt that the hated Ravens will win this game. I hate to say it, but they have a great team and they're tough at home. They're also 3-0 in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era coming off a bye week. Houston will probably be without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. But, I can't shake the feeling that they'll come out strong in the first half, build a lead, and finally run out of gas in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland at Oakland:
I'm going to stop picking against the Raiders as soon as they stop dedicating games to the memory of Al Davis. They have a special kind of motivation right now and that makes them especially dangerous. Plus which, they're at home and they're playing the Browns.
Dallas at New England:
Tom Brady has won 30 consecutive (regular season) games at home. Not betting against that. Then there's the fact that the Patriots are a way better team than the Cowboys, Dallas has a shaky pass defense, and Tom Brady has won 30 consecutive (regular season) games at home.
New Orleans at Tampa:
The Bucs got humiliated by the Niners on the road last week and Josh Freeman is incredibly competitive. And they're at home. These things make them very dangerous. They do not, however, make them dangerous enough to beat Drew Brees and a very talented Saints team.
Minnesota at Chicago:
The Vikings looked good last week and the Bears looked... not so good... on Monday night. But, the Bears were playing the Lions on the road and the Vikings were playing Steelers West at home. The game is in Chicago and I think the Bears play just well enough to start the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota.
Miami at NY Jets:
I know the Jets are a mess, but the Dolphins are a bigger mess. New York showed just enough fight against the Patriots to make me believe that they're not a total pile of crap. That's not a glowing endorsement of them, but it's good enough to pick them to beat Miami.
Line of the Week:
Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland. The Raiders are at home and will still be playing for their dear, departed owner. Also, they're playing the Browns. They'll cover.
Moneyline of the Week:
Carolina (+166) over Atlanta. The Upset Special. Cam Newton is superhuman and the Falcons have proven themselves to be very, very human. I don't care that the game is at home. They could play in Matt Ryan's basement and the Panthers would still win.
Over/Under of the Week:
Rams at Packers (47.5), OVER. Green Bay might break the Over all by themselves. Throw in a suspect Packers pass defense and a well-rested Rams offense and this looks like a safe bet.
Green Bay over St. Louis
Steelers over Jacksonville
Washington over Philadelphia
Detroit over San Francisco
Carolina over Atlanta
Buffalo over NY Giants
Baltimore over Houston
Oakland over Cleveland
New England over Dallas
NOLA over Tampa
Chicago over Minnesota
NY Jets over Miami
Well, continuing to bet against the Dream Team worked out. I am going to keep riding their losing streak until they prove they can win. I also picked the Giants to beat the Seahawks in my Survivor Pool, so I'm eliminated from that. That just gives me more time to continue my Steelers N At Pick Em Domination.
St. Louis at Green Bay:
The Packers are an unstoppable force, the Rams are a moveable object. This one is probably going to get ugly. Since that's my prediction, I think that means that you shouldn't take the Packers if you're still alive in your Survivor Pool.
Jacksonville at Steelers:
If the Steelers play like they did in Week 5 against the Titans, this one could get ugly. If they play like they did against Indy and Seattle, then they still win (and possibly cover). Ben Roethlisberger saw his QBERT rating jump to 93.4. Blaine Gabbert's rating has seen considerable improvement in the past few weeks, but he started at 8.7, so...
Philadelphia at Washington:
Same script as last week: Eagles have one win, opponent has one loss and is at home, yet Philly is somehow favored in this game. I'm still not 100% sold on Washington, but I'm 100% sold on picking against the Eagles. I know the Dream Team will eventually prove me wrong, but I don't think it's this week. At least I hope it's not this week.
San Francisco at Detroit:
I'm sold on the 49ers, but I'm also sold on the Lions. The game is in Detroit and Matthew Stafford and company really look like they want to prove they're for real. A 6-0 start would go a long way towards proving that. If the 9ers win, they will suddenly show up on the radar of a whole lot of people.
Carolina at Atlanta:
After weeks of trying and failing, the Panthers finally complete an upset. Sure, they're 1-4, but they've been competitive in all their games, which is more than you can say for the Falcons. Atlanta's pass defense and pass rush have been suspect and they won't be able to win a shoot out if Julio Jones can't play.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati:
The Curtis Painter Experiment is showing signs of improvement, but he hasn't faced a defense as good as the Bengals. I can't believe I just typed that. Also, Cincy would have a decent shot at the playoffs with a strong defense, AJ Green, and a weak schedule, if only they didn't have an uncoordinated ginger at quarterback. Can't believe I just type that, either. I think I should move on.
Buffalo at NY Giants:
I think I may be channeling my anger at the Giants because of the Survivor Pool thing and that is affecting my judgment. But, I can't shake the feeling that the Bills have enough on offense to outscore the Giants. I don't have enough doubt in my heart to pick the home team.
Houston at Baltimore:
I don't doubt that the hated Ravens will win this game. I hate to say it, but they have a great team and they're tough at home. They're also 3-0 in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era coming off a bye week. Houston will probably be without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. But, I can't shake the feeling that they'll come out strong in the first half, build a lead, and finally run out of gas in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland at Oakland:
I'm going to stop picking against the Raiders as soon as they stop dedicating games to the memory of Al Davis. They have a special kind of motivation right now and that makes them especially dangerous. Plus which, they're at home and they're playing the Browns.
Dallas at New England:
Tom Brady has won 30 consecutive (regular season) games at home. Not betting against that. Then there's the fact that the Patriots are a way better team than the Cowboys, Dallas has a shaky pass defense, and Tom Brady has won 30 consecutive (regular season) games at home.
New Orleans at Tampa:
The Bucs got humiliated by the Niners on the road last week and Josh Freeman is incredibly competitive. And they're at home. These things make them very dangerous. They do not, however, make them dangerous enough to beat Drew Brees and a very talented Saints team.
Minnesota at Chicago:
The Vikings looked good last week and the Bears looked... not so good... on Monday night. But, the Bears were playing the Lions on the road and the Vikings were playing Steelers West at home. The game is in Chicago and I think the Bears play just well enough to start the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota.
Miami at NY Jets:
I know the Jets are a mess, but the Dolphins are a bigger mess. New York showed just enough fight against the Patriots to make me believe that they're not a total pile of crap. That's not a glowing endorsement of them, but it's good enough to pick them to beat Miami.
Line of the Week:
Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland. The Raiders are at home and will still be playing for their dear, departed owner. Also, they're playing the Browns. They'll cover.
Moneyline of the Week:
Carolina (+166) over Atlanta. The Upset Special. Cam Newton is superhuman and the Falcons have proven themselves to be very, very human. I don't care that the game is at home. They could play in Matt Ryan's basement and the Panthers would still win.
Over/Under of the Week:
Rams at Packers (47.5), OVER. Green Bay might break the Over all by themselves. Throw in a suspect Packers pass defense and a well-rested Rams offense and this looks like a safe bet.
Green Bay over St. Louis
Steelers over Jacksonville
Washington over Philadelphia
Detroit over San Francisco
Carolina over Atlanta
Buffalo over NY Giants
Baltimore over Houston
Oakland over Cleveland
New England over Dallas
NOLA over Tampa
Chicago over Minnesota
NY Jets over Miami
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs. Titans
Mostly good news, since this was a pretty sound ba-thwumping by the home team...
- It's time for a shout out to special teams. I realize that they had a punt blocked and that sucks. But, they also have a dangerous return game for the first time since the first coming of Randle-El and it got to the point where the Titans were actually kicking out of bounds to avoid putting the ball in the hands of Antonio Brown. That's the first time that's happened since... can't remember it ever happening. Maybe their punter just sucks? Nah, I think it's Brown. Yes, they also botched an onside kick, but it was a surprise onside kick. You know who else botched a surprise onside? The Colts. And the Cowboys. Both in the Super Bowl. A team falls for that trick once a year, maximum. It's for the best that it happened in Week 5. Having said that, I think the Steelers wasted their lone successful fake punt attempt for the season. But, I also think that it was worth it. Once they converted and scored, the game was in their hands.
- Huge shout out to Max Starks and a lesser one for Ramon Foster. Marcus Gilbert is questionable for next week after re-aggravating his shoulder injury, but I like the current combination of guys with Scott at right tackle and Starks at left tackle. Now, Starks and I have had our differences, but he played a great game. If he can keep that up, I may start liking him again. He is also now available to tutor Gilbert on how to play right tackle for the Steelers after playing left tackle for the Florida Gators. That's a unique blend of experiences that Starks has that will help Gilbert out considerably. He can tell Gilbert what he did wrong, more importantly what he did wrong, and most importantly, what he learned. In the meantime, he'll hopefully keep doing a great job of protecting Ben Roethlisberger's blind side and blocking in the run game.
- Speaking of the running game, the offensive line opened up some huge holes against a talented front seven. Think about that before you add Jonathan Dwyer to your fantasy team. With the hole he had, Mike Tomlin could've gained 30 yards on that play, Rashard Mendenhall would've scored, and Willie Parker (present day) would've gotten about as much as Dwyer. Maybe it was the two practices in pads. Maybe it was the desperation of the moment. Maybe the Steelers just wanted hacks like me to shut up for two seconds. Whatever it was, it worked, so I hope it continues.
- I've said it before and I'll say it again: Roethlisberger may be a womanizer and an alleged rapist, but he's an exceptional quarterback. If he gets that much time every week, he will have similar results. He's know for his ability to break tackles and keep the play alive, but he's definitely most effective when he can take the snap, scan the field, and make a decision without someone in his face.
- Efficiency in the red zone, with four conversions on five attempts.
- The defensive line was attacking the line of scrimmage and the linebackers were swarming to the ball. That was what we were looking for all season. So... hey, Steelers. You're soft and you're going to get tossed around like a bunch of school girls against Jacksonville. You want to prove that I'm wrong? Show me I'm wrong.
- Tackling was much improved as well. Guys were in their lanes, took good angles in pursuit, and didn't over commit, especially Troy Polamalu.
- Great games by the replacements on the defensive line. Cameron Heyward is looking better and better, Ziggy Hood atoned for some spotty play in the first quarter of the season, and Chris Hoke was especially disruptive and active, pushing plays back and chasing Chris Johnson down.
- LaMarr Woodley needed to step up with Harrison out of the lineup and he did. Well done.
Now for the bad news:
- Woodley was credited with the Steelers first interception of the season. It was the second turnover forced by the defense this season. It's Week 5. Luck is a component of turnovers, but you also make your own luck. Hopefully, they'll be able to trick Blaine Gabbert into making some mistakes when the Jaguars come to town.
- Roethlisberger really should have spiked that ball at the end of the first half. You're either 100% sure that everyone is on the same page and throw the ball, or you're less than 100% sure and you spike the ball. Looking at the replay, I can't believe he was 100% sure.
- Issac Redman had the same blocking as Dwyer and averaged 3.3 yards per attempt. If you take out the 76-yarder, then Dwyer's average drops to 3.1, but he was also in there when the Titans were stacking the box and two yards a carry would've been considered a victory. Regardless, it's also not time to add Redman to your fantasy team. The Steelers need to get Mendenhall back. With the kinds of holes the offensive line was creating, Mendenhall would've had a huge day.
Aside from how well Starks played on three days of practice, the big news was that that Steelers finally executed the kind of game we wanted to see from them against the Seahawks and the Colts. Yes, it would've been nice for them to win all five games of the season thus far by a margin of 38-17, but I know I was definitely looking for them to beat someone down. That's exactly what they did to the Titans on Sunday.
Tennessee has a lot of talent along both the offensive and defensive line. They are a tough team. The Steelers bullied them and beat them until they didn't want to get up any more. Was it the two practices in pads? If so, they're screwed, as Tomlin used up two of the precious few padded practices he has available to him for the rest of the season. I would think that the message was sent and that the Steelers like the feeling of beating on a team until they don't want to get up. I would also think that a physical, veteran group like this wouldn't need to practice in pads to get used to -- and expect and enjoy -- contact.
Hopefully, last week's practices were enough. I guess we'll find out when the Jaguars come to town.
Saturday, October 08, 2011
Remembering Al Davis
I have to say this right from the start: I never liked Al Davis. He was a polarizing figure and you either loved him or you hated him. Since I was too young to get fully involved in the great Steelers-Raiders rivalry of the 70s, I held onto that hate to make up for lost time. From there, Davis made it easy for me, moving the Raiders from Oakland to LA as it suited him, having feuds with the NFL commissioner, and making head-scratching football decision after head-scratching football decision in his twilight years.
I never liked him, but I always respected him. I was aware of the fact that he was a leader and a pioneer. I knew that he should be -- but usually wasn't -- mentioned in the same breath as other owner royalty with the Rooneys, the Maras, and the Hunts. For the past 15 years or so, though, he was viewed as a crazy, irrational old man that acted impulsively and usually only in his best interests. He was a charicture in sunglasses and ugly track suits that watched over his crooked, failing empire from the owner's box.
I've taken my fair share of cheap shots at him over the years because he made it so easy and I was lazy. I wanted to extract every last pound of flesh from my imagined rival as I could before it was too late. Now it's too late and I'm sorry.
Davis took a fledgling AFL and a young Raider team and dragged it to prominence with him, through balls and ambition. The last decade of ineptitude in Oakland has made it easy to forget all the great players that have worn the Silver and Black. With savvy business decisions and more savvy football decisions, he presided over one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. When the 1970 merger came along, he was leading the charge to expand football in America. He was there alongside the Hunts, Rooneys, and Maras during the labor issues of the 80s and early 90s, trying to ensure a future for the League he helped build while watching out for the best interests of the team he loved so dearly.
Yes, he sued the commissioner. Yes, he had contentious relationships with both Pete Rozelle and Paul Taglibue. Yes, he screwed over Los Angeles and Oakland in different ways with questionable leases. Yes, he abstained from the last Collective Bargaining Agreement vote. It could be that his brain realized that his body was betraying him and he didn't want to make such an important decision in his condition. We'll probably never know. But, the fact remains that he was instrumental in making the NFL what it is today. The fact remains that the young league probably couldn't have made it as far as it has and become as successful as it has without him.
That is how I think Al Davis should be remembered: As a pioneer and a personality. As a successful businessman and a thoroughly engaged owner of one of the league's most successful franchises. And, now that he has passed, I think that's how he will be remembered. I think Davis is on a short list of people whose death helped restore their legacy. That list, in my mind, includes: Elvis, Michael Jackson, Richard Nixon, and Al Davis.
Jackson wasn't all child molester jokes and eccentric shopping sprees, he was an amazingly gifted musician and entertainer. Same with Elvis, but substitute drug-fueled insanity. Nixon wasn't just Watergate and Kent State. Davis wasn't just track suits and lawsuits. All of these men were talented, influential, and controversial and they changed their world significantly.
I heard the news this morning when I got an e-mail notification from the Wall Street Journal. It said, "Raiders Owner Al Davis, Football Pioneer, Dies." That's how it should be.
When I texted my brother to tell him the news, he texted back, "Just when the Raiders were turning around." But, as the back of the Raiders media guide says, "The greatness of the Raiders will continue in its future."
I never liked him, but I always respected him. I was aware of the fact that he was a leader and a pioneer. I knew that he should be -- but usually wasn't -- mentioned in the same breath as other owner royalty with the Rooneys, the Maras, and the Hunts. For the past 15 years or so, though, he was viewed as a crazy, irrational old man that acted impulsively and usually only in his best interests. He was a charicture in sunglasses and ugly track suits that watched over his crooked, failing empire from the owner's box.
I've taken my fair share of cheap shots at him over the years because he made it so easy and I was lazy. I wanted to extract every last pound of flesh from my imagined rival as I could before it was too late. Now it's too late and I'm sorry.
Davis took a fledgling AFL and a young Raider team and dragged it to prominence with him, through balls and ambition. The last decade of ineptitude in Oakland has made it easy to forget all the great players that have worn the Silver and Black. With savvy business decisions and more savvy football decisions, he presided over one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. When the 1970 merger came along, he was leading the charge to expand football in America. He was there alongside the Hunts, Rooneys, and Maras during the labor issues of the 80s and early 90s, trying to ensure a future for the League he helped build while watching out for the best interests of the team he loved so dearly.
Yes, he sued the commissioner. Yes, he had contentious relationships with both Pete Rozelle and Paul Taglibue. Yes, he screwed over Los Angeles and Oakland in different ways with questionable leases. Yes, he abstained from the last Collective Bargaining Agreement vote. It could be that his brain realized that his body was betraying him and he didn't want to make such an important decision in his condition. We'll probably never know. But, the fact remains that he was instrumental in making the NFL what it is today. The fact remains that the young league probably couldn't have made it as far as it has and become as successful as it has without him.
That is how I think Al Davis should be remembered: As a pioneer and a personality. As a successful businessman and a thoroughly engaged owner of one of the league's most successful franchises. And, now that he has passed, I think that's how he will be remembered. I think Davis is on a short list of people whose death helped restore their legacy. That list, in my mind, includes: Elvis, Michael Jackson, Richard Nixon, and Al Davis.
Jackson wasn't all child molester jokes and eccentric shopping sprees, he was an amazingly gifted musician and entertainer. Same with Elvis, but substitute drug-fueled insanity. Nixon wasn't just Watergate and Kent State. Davis wasn't just track suits and lawsuits. All of these men were talented, influential, and controversial and they changed their world significantly.
I heard the news this morning when I got an e-mail notification from the Wall Street Journal. It said, "Raiders Owner Al Davis, Football Pioneer, Dies." That's how it should be.
When I texted my brother to tell him the news, he texted back, "Just when the Raiders were turning around." But, as the back of the Raiders media guide says, "The greatness of the Raiders will continue in its future."
Thursday, October 06, 2011
Pittsburgh Power 2012 Update
Hey, it's never too early to be thinking about the Power's next season. Well, for me anyway. Either way, I wanted to give a bit of a State of the Arena Union update now that the 2012 schedule has been announced. That, coupled with some big changes around the league, make for some exciting news.
Here's the schedule, according to the Power website:
3/9 @Orlando Predators (NFL Network)
3/23 Philadelphia Soul (NFL Network)
3/29 @Milwaukee Mustangs
4/6 Iowa Barnstormers
4/14 Orlando Predators
4/20 @New Orleans VooDoo
4/28 Cleveland Gladiators
5/5 Georgia Force
5/12 @San Antonio Talons
5/19 Kansas City Command
6/3 @Arizona Rattlers
6/8 @Cleveland Gladiators (NFL Network)
6/16 Milwaukee Mustangs
6/24 @Philadelphia Soul
6/30 @Iowa Barnstormers
7/7 Tampa Bay Storm
7/14 @Georgia Force
7/20 Jacksonville Sharks (NFL Network)
Oooooookay! There's a lot to cover here, but I'll get to the schedule in a moment. First, I'd like to talk about the team itself. The Power is shaping up in exciting ways already, and they're still recruiting for the season. As things stand right now, QB Morris is out, whereas "Joystick" Washington, "Powertool" Dewalt, Anthony DeGrate and back-up QB Bill Stull have all been resigned. Washington and DeWalt are both key, as they were our star play-makers last year, and I was very concerned that we were going to lose one or both of them to other teams - or leagues.
What about the quarterback situation? That's the big question. Last season, we had four players fill that position, and Morris was the best of them - and that's not saying much. Coach Siegfried has stressed that consistency at this position is a major goal for this season, and he's committed to that in a big way. First off, as mentioned above, Bill Stull is back. He looked good in the one game he played for us last year, and I think that he'll make a solid backup. The big news is our starter.
The Power has stolen big shot Kyle Rowley away from the Spokane Shock, and I couldn't be more excited. In 2008, he was the offensive player of the year, and in 2010, he lead the Shock to an Arena Bowl win and took home the MVP title. This is huge. He's a great player, has a lot of experience and already has an Arena Bowl victory under his belt. Morris was never an Arena QB by the shear fact that he lacked experience. Games were lost because of this inexperience and lack of confidence. Having a true veteran behind center could be that one drop that makes the whole solution gel.
My concerns right now are people who haven't been confirmed for next season. No word yet on defensive stand-outs Josh Lay, Terrance "Total Chaos" Carter or Gary "Da Bully" Butler. It's no secret that our defense struggled at times last year, but these guys are all dynamic players with a lot to offer, and I think that they'd come back with a renewed focus and united force. Now, if we can't get them all, then I'd hope they get prioritized in the order I put them here.
So, how about the season? There are some theories that I can put forth, but a lot is still up in the air. Keller commented to me the other day that he doesn't like the year-to-year contracts in the league, as it makes it hard to hate on the same people long-term. Now, he has a point, but I like the fact that anything can happen any season. This year will be no exception.
It's obvious that Pittsburgh already has a following that the league recognizes as they have a whopping four games on the NFL Network this year - with two of them being in the first three weeks. I talked at length last season of the home team embracing that we've given them, and it seems that others are noticing.
Last year, the league took it easy on this expansion team's early season, but that is not the case this year. First of all, we need to face the Preds twice in the first five games, and that's not good at all. After parting ways with Coach O'Hara at the end of the season, they've aggressively started pursuing top talent. Given that they have the consistently largest fanbase in the league, that shouldn't be difficult. Also, they resigned TT Toliver. Nuff Said.
Things are going to be turned on their head in our division as well. The only good news is that Kurt Rocco has left the hated Gladiators to see if he can help turn the Voodoo around - under Coach O'Hara down in New Orleans, where the Arena Bowl will be played this year. We still have to play them, but only once - and that's good, because they might actually be something to watch this year...from a distance.
While we picked up Rowley, Philly answered with "Dirty" Dan Raudabaugh (Yes, I'm gonna push the nickname 'til it sticks) from the Dallas Vigilantes. If you remember, we only beat Dallas by one point last year, and they went to the playoffs. Now we have to play him twice this season, and that's not good.
The Milwaukee and Cleveland camps have been comparatively quiet thus far, but it's still early. The Mustangs aren't historically great, so until something changes, I'm not going to worry too much. Right now, Cleveland is less scary than Philly, but they're officially a bitter rival and both teams are always going to get it up for each other.
Other things of note are the Barnstormers, Rattlers and Sharks. The Ratts went to the Arena Bowl last year, have won several before and will always be dangerous. I'm not looking forward to getting whooped on by them again. The Barnstormers were middling last year, but now they have Coach Ho, formerly of Philly and Chicago. He's a better coach than Philly showed last year, and I think he can make a dangerous team out of Iowa - and we have to play them twice.
Finally, we end the season against the defending champs, the Jacksonville Sharks. On the up side, they won't have Garcia anymore. He's decided to play one more season, but not with the Sharks. He wants to coach, so he'd like to play somewhere he can hope to lead in future years. (He will be offered a chance at a one-day contract to retire a Shark.) I think that this is a great move for him. Few can challenge his experience, and he'll be a great asset. Unlike the Favres of the world, he's coming back for "just one more" for the right reasons that shouldn't tarnish his legacy if it goes sideways.
****Update****
It looks like the San Antonio Talons picked up Garcia and Robert Quiroga (formerly of the Predators.) This, coupled with a flurry of other signings they've made this month means that we're going to have a really tough game in May.
*****
On the down side with the Sharks, they've signed Florida State star Chris Leak to augment former Steeler hopeful, Omar Jacobs (remember him?) Whether either one of them will measure up to Garcia is yet to be seen, but it's a scary combo.
So, that's the run-down. A lot of news about the upcoming season has already come out, but there's still a lot more to come. There's still a long time (and a lot of NFL action) to go before March, and a lot can still happen. More details to come when I have them.
Go Power, Go Pens and Go Steelers!
Here's the schedule, according to the Power website:
3/9 @Orlando Predators (NFL Network)
3/23 Philadelphia Soul (NFL Network)
3/29 @Milwaukee Mustangs
4/6 Iowa Barnstormers
4/14 Orlando Predators
4/20 @New Orleans VooDoo
4/28 Cleveland Gladiators
5/5 Georgia Force
5/12 @San Antonio Talons
5/19 Kansas City Command
6/3 @Arizona Rattlers
6/8 @Cleveland Gladiators (NFL Network)
6/16 Milwaukee Mustangs
6/24 @Philadelphia Soul
6/30 @Iowa Barnstormers
7/7 Tampa Bay Storm
7/14 @Georgia Force
7/20 Jacksonville Sharks (NFL Network)
Oooooookay! There's a lot to cover here, but I'll get to the schedule in a moment. First, I'd like to talk about the team itself. The Power is shaping up in exciting ways already, and they're still recruiting for the season. As things stand right now, QB Morris is out, whereas "Joystick" Washington, "Powertool" Dewalt, Anthony DeGrate and back-up QB Bill Stull have all been resigned. Washington and DeWalt are both key, as they were our star play-makers last year, and I was very concerned that we were going to lose one or both of them to other teams - or leagues.
What about the quarterback situation? That's the big question. Last season, we had four players fill that position, and Morris was the best of them - and that's not saying much. Coach Siegfried has stressed that consistency at this position is a major goal for this season, and he's committed to that in a big way. First off, as mentioned above, Bill Stull is back. He looked good in the one game he played for us last year, and I think that he'll make a solid backup. The big news is our starter.
The Power has stolen big shot Kyle Rowley away from the Spokane Shock, and I couldn't be more excited. In 2008, he was the offensive player of the year, and in 2010, he lead the Shock to an Arena Bowl win and took home the MVP title. This is huge. He's a great player, has a lot of experience and already has an Arena Bowl victory under his belt. Morris was never an Arena QB by the shear fact that he lacked experience. Games were lost because of this inexperience and lack of confidence. Having a true veteran behind center could be that one drop that makes the whole solution gel.
My concerns right now are people who haven't been confirmed for next season. No word yet on defensive stand-outs Josh Lay, Terrance "Total Chaos" Carter or Gary "Da Bully" Butler. It's no secret that our defense struggled at times last year, but these guys are all dynamic players with a lot to offer, and I think that they'd come back with a renewed focus and united force. Now, if we can't get them all, then I'd hope they get prioritized in the order I put them here.
So, how about the season? There are some theories that I can put forth, but a lot is still up in the air. Keller commented to me the other day that he doesn't like the year-to-year contracts in the league, as it makes it hard to hate on the same people long-term. Now, he has a point, but I like the fact that anything can happen any season. This year will be no exception.
It's obvious that Pittsburgh already has a following that the league recognizes as they have a whopping four games on the NFL Network this year - with two of them being in the first three weeks. I talked at length last season of the home team embracing that we've given them, and it seems that others are noticing.
Last year, the league took it easy on this expansion team's early season, but that is not the case this year. First of all, we need to face the Preds twice in the first five games, and that's not good at all. After parting ways with Coach O'Hara at the end of the season, they've aggressively started pursuing top talent. Given that they have the consistently largest fanbase in the league, that shouldn't be difficult. Also, they resigned TT Toliver. Nuff Said.
Things are going to be turned on their head in our division as well. The only good news is that Kurt Rocco has left the hated Gladiators to see if he can help turn the Voodoo around - under Coach O'Hara down in New Orleans, where the Arena Bowl will be played this year. We still have to play them, but only once - and that's good, because they might actually be something to watch this year...from a distance.
While we picked up Rowley, Philly answered with "Dirty" Dan Raudabaugh (Yes, I'm gonna push the nickname 'til it sticks) from the Dallas Vigilantes. If you remember, we only beat Dallas by one point last year, and they went to the playoffs. Now we have to play him twice this season, and that's not good.
The Milwaukee and Cleveland camps have been comparatively quiet thus far, but it's still early. The Mustangs aren't historically great, so until something changes, I'm not going to worry too much. Right now, Cleveland is less scary than Philly, but they're officially a bitter rival and both teams are always going to get it up for each other.
Other things of note are the Barnstormers, Rattlers and Sharks. The Ratts went to the Arena Bowl last year, have won several before and will always be dangerous. I'm not looking forward to getting whooped on by them again. The Barnstormers were middling last year, but now they have Coach Ho, formerly of Philly and Chicago. He's a better coach than Philly showed last year, and I think he can make a dangerous team out of Iowa - and we have to play them twice.
Finally, we end the season against the defending champs, the Jacksonville Sharks. On the up side, they won't have Garcia anymore. He's decided to play one more season, but not with the Sharks. He wants to coach, so he'd like to play somewhere he can hope to lead in future years. (He will be offered a chance at a one-day contract to retire a Shark.) I think that this is a great move for him. Few can challenge his experience, and he'll be a great asset. Unlike the Favres of the world, he's coming back for "just one more" for the right reasons that shouldn't tarnish his legacy if it goes sideways.
****Update****
It looks like the San Antonio Talons picked up Garcia and Robert Quiroga (formerly of the Predators.) This, coupled with a flurry of other signings they've made this month means that we're going to have a really tough game in May.
*****
On the down side with the Sharks, they've signed Florida State star Chris Leak to augment former Steeler hopeful, Omar Jacobs (remember him?) Whether either one of them will measure up to Garcia is yet to be seen, but it's a scary combo.
So, that's the run-down. A lot of news about the upcoming season has already come out, but there's still a lot more to come. There's still a long time (and a lot of NFL action) to go before March, and a lot can still happen. More details to come when I have them.
Go Power, Go Pens and Go Steelers!
Please Don't Let CJ Murder Us: Steelers vs. Titans Preview
My analysis for Sunday's game against Tennessee basically comes down to the title of this post. Chris Johnson is a game-murdering death stick on two legs. If you thought the Steeler defense looked slow and old against Ray Rice and Arian Foster, then they are going to look like a bunch of 90 year old women with two arthritic hips against Johnson.
Since Aaron Smith and Casey Hampton didn't practice today and James Harrison has been ruled out, that means that, with Jason Worilds also out, Larry Foote is going to be playing Lawrence Timmons' position and Timmons is going to be replacing Harrison. Two guys hurt, two guys playing out of position. On a defense that has already had issues stopping the run. I like Chris Hoke. I like Ziggy Hood. I'm glad that Keisel is going to be back. They all represent speed upgrades on defense. But, against Johnson, you're still talking about a bunch of turtles on Red Bull as opposed to a bunch of regular turtles.
Johnson has taken a while to get back up to speed after his holdout, but he gained 101 yards on 23 carries against Cleveland last week and says that he now feels comfortable with the new blocking schemes and linemen in front of him. That is incredibly bad news for the Steelers. If this were 2004-2010, I would say that the best course of action would be to line up and have the Titans try their best. Historically, it's been impossible to run on the Steelers, which would mean the game would be be put in Matt Hasselbeck's hands. Historically, I would really like the odds in that situation.
But, this ain't history. This is 2011.
First of all, the Titans went 2-1 while Johnson was struggling and Elizabeth Hasselbeck's Husband's Brother (henceforth EHHB, because I'm tired of spelling the word Hasselbeck) stepped up in a big way. He's completing almost 67 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He hasn't been a turnover machine like Roethlisberger. He's been efficient and pretty explosive, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt (which is better than Roethlisberger is averaging).
So, you have EHHB and CJ, which is a lethal combination. The Titans gave up 350 passing yards last week to a pretty pedestrian Browns pass offense, but they also limited a pretty good running team to 3.8 yards per carry. Colt McCoy was sacked only four times in 65 dropbacks, but Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach are slightly better than Jonathan Scott/Max Starks and Chris Kemoeatu/Doug Legursky. If Ben Roethlisberger and his gammy left foot drop back to pass 65 times on Sunday, he will be sacked more than four times.
Oh, yeah. Roethlisberger is hurt. Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore did not practice. That means that Isaac Redman is going to be the lead back (possibly the only back). Still, I think the Steelers adjust enough on offense and Redman will play well enough behind a spotty offensive line, that this game will not be an embarrassing blowout. Tennessee has a pretty good defense, but they're not as good as Baltimore or Houston, so the Steelers should be able to score some points.
But, the only way they can score enough points to win is if they stop Chris Johnson. In previous seasons, they may have stopped Johnson by sound gap discipline, winning battles at the point of attack, and taking away cutback lanes with back side pursuit. This season, they don't seem to be able to do that. If Johnson sees the kinds of huge holes and wide open cutback lanes that Foster saw last week, he is going to destroy the Steelers defense. EHHB will pick up whatever points and yardage are left over.
The other way to stop Johnson is to keep the ball the hell away from him so that he doesn't get to touch it. The best way to do that is by running the ball effectively and holding a hefty advantage in time of possession. That will keep the ball away from Johnson, it will keep the old, tired defense off the field, and it will also keep Roethlisberger from dropping back 65 times, which would probably result in his death (or at least maiming).
In order to keep the Titans from crushing an already ailing Roethlisberger, Bruce Arians should call more short passes. It seems like Mike Wallace gains an average of 15 yards on every one of those hitch screens they throw him, so how about throwing more than one of those a game? How about throwing two to Wallace, one to Emmanuel Sanders and maybe a bubble screen or two to Antonio Brown just to mix things up?
What I'm proposing is not a radical concept, but talking about it and doing it are two different things entirely. The Steelers were able to successfully implement this strategy in Week 2 against the Seahawks, but Seattle is nowhere near as good a team as the Titans. They're too strong and too talented for the Steelers to be able to lean on them until they fall over. But, the only other option is to keep trying to score by throwing the ball and keep giving the ball back to Johnson. That strategy has a higher probability of failure.
The only upside is that they're at home and they've got the "us against the world" mentality going for them, which is almost as effective a motivator as Mike Tomlin. We'll see if the home crowd and a psychological edge are enough to overcome the physical and talent mismatches.
I doubt they do.
Prediction:
Titans 21, Steelers 13
Since Aaron Smith and Casey Hampton didn't practice today and James Harrison has been ruled out, that means that, with Jason Worilds also out, Larry Foote is going to be playing Lawrence Timmons' position and Timmons is going to be replacing Harrison. Two guys hurt, two guys playing out of position. On a defense that has already had issues stopping the run. I like Chris Hoke. I like Ziggy Hood. I'm glad that Keisel is going to be back. They all represent speed upgrades on defense. But, against Johnson, you're still talking about a bunch of turtles on Red Bull as opposed to a bunch of regular turtles.
Johnson has taken a while to get back up to speed after his holdout, but he gained 101 yards on 23 carries against Cleveland last week and says that he now feels comfortable with the new blocking schemes and linemen in front of him. That is incredibly bad news for the Steelers. If this were 2004-2010, I would say that the best course of action would be to line up and have the Titans try their best. Historically, it's been impossible to run on the Steelers, which would mean the game would be be put in Matt Hasselbeck's hands. Historically, I would really like the odds in that situation.
But, this ain't history. This is 2011.
First of all, the Titans went 2-1 while Johnson was struggling and Elizabeth Hasselbeck's Husband's Brother (henceforth EHHB, because I'm tired of spelling the word Hasselbeck) stepped up in a big way. He's completing almost 67 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He hasn't been a turnover machine like Roethlisberger. He's been efficient and pretty explosive, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt (which is better than Roethlisberger is averaging).
So, you have EHHB and CJ, which is a lethal combination. The Titans gave up 350 passing yards last week to a pretty pedestrian Browns pass offense, but they also limited a pretty good running team to 3.8 yards per carry. Colt McCoy was sacked only four times in 65 dropbacks, but Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach are slightly better than Jonathan Scott/Max Starks and Chris Kemoeatu/Doug Legursky. If Ben Roethlisberger and his gammy left foot drop back to pass 65 times on Sunday, he will be sacked more than four times.
Oh, yeah. Roethlisberger is hurt. Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore did not practice. That means that Isaac Redman is going to be the lead back (possibly the only back). Still, I think the Steelers adjust enough on offense and Redman will play well enough behind a spotty offensive line, that this game will not be an embarrassing blowout. Tennessee has a pretty good defense, but they're not as good as Baltimore or Houston, so the Steelers should be able to score some points.
But, the only way they can score enough points to win is if they stop Chris Johnson. In previous seasons, they may have stopped Johnson by sound gap discipline, winning battles at the point of attack, and taking away cutback lanes with back side pursuit. This season, they don't seem to be able to do that. If Johnson sees the kinds of huge holes and wide open cutback lanes that Foster saw last week, he is going to destroy the Steelers defense. EHHB will pick up whatever points and yardage are left over.
The other way to stop Johnson is to keep the ball the hell away from him so that he doesn't get to touch it. The best way to do that is by running the ball effectively and holding a hefty advantage in time of possession. That will keep the ball away from Johnson, it will keep the old, tired defense off the field, and it will also keep Roethlisberger from dropping back 65 times, which would probably result in his death (or at least maiming).
In order to keep the Titans from crushing an already ailing Roethlisberger, Bruce Arians should call more short passes. It seems like Mike Wallace gains an average of 15 yards on every one of those hitch screens they throw him, so how about throwing more than one of those a game? How about throwing two to Wallace, one to Emmanuel Sanders and maybe a bubble screen or two to Antonio Brown just to mix things up?
What I'm proposing is not a radical concept, but talking about it and doing it are two different things entirely. The Steelers were able to successfully implement this strategy in Week 2 against the Seahawks, but Seattle is nowhere near as good a team as the Titans. They're too strong and too talented for the Steelers to be able to lean on them until they fall over. But, the only other option is to keep trying to score by throwing the ball and keep giving the ball back to Johnson. That strategy has a higher probability of failure.
The only upside is that they're at home and they've got the "us against the world" mentality going for them, which is almost as effective a motivator as Mike Tomlin. We'll see if the home crowd and a psychological edge are enough to overcome the physical and talent mismatches.
I doubt they do.
Prediction:
Titans 21, Steelers 13
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 5
Check out the full Pick Em standings (week-by-week and YTD)
Okay, week 4 could have been better, but it could have been worse. Now, we're on to week five, and past the quarter-way point for the season.
Titans at Steelers
Okay, the Steelers are banged up and not looking that great this season so far, but we're back home this week and looking for a win. Starks is back on the team to shore up our line, and as far as I know, Keisel will be back in action this week. I think it's still gonna be an ugly game, but I'll take the Steelers by a hair.
Raiders at Texans
I want to pick the Raiders this week, but I got burned by them last week. They've beaten some tough opponents and they only lost to the Bills by a hair - but this one looks to be Houston's week. The Texans should have won by a lot more than they did last week, but they constantly shot themselves in the foot. They're at home this week and probably learning from last week's mistakes - assuming they do learn, then they'll win.
Chiefs at Colts
Yuck. Another one of those games. Neither team really deserves a win, but the Colts are due, and they're at home.
Bungles at Jags
Similar to the above situation, but with a few more W's mixed in. Normally, the move would be to take the home team, but the line is so close, it's a crap-shoot. I'll take the Bungles in this one.
Seahawks at the football Giants
Pretty easy call on this one. The 'Hawks stink, whereas the Giants are good and at home.
Steelers West at Vikings
Can the Vikes make a run on Detroit's perfect season record from a few years ago? This week will tell. I think they're only favored because they're at home, and Starks didn't go there. Cards pull this one off and prove that yet another team has bigger...equipment...than the Minnesota Lepers.
Saints at Panthers
Easy win for the Saints unless they get cocky.
Eagles at Bills
The Bills only lost by a field goal last week, and I'm seeing them going to the playoffs this year (write it down) - The Eagles are still lost. Vick's not long for this season, because he's going to start getting reckless and hurt himself. This being a big statement week, it might happen Sunday. Take the Bills in this one.
Bucs at Niners
Honestly, both of these teams is doing better than I thought they'd be at this point of the season. After some risky picks above, I'm going to play it safe and pick the home team in this matchup.
Jets at Pats
Don't bet against Brady. I did it last week, and life was not good. The Jets got tenderized by the Ravens last week (Shout-out: Sally, try to stop laughing at Flan, please. Flan, we'll get revenge for you on Nov 6th \Shout-out), and now they need to travel to Foxboro. The Jets are flying home in tears.
Chargers at Broncos
I still don't like the Broncos, and the Chargers are coming out strong. They might be on the road, but they're going to take this one.
Pack at Falcons
The Pack needs to lose at some point, but it's not going to be in Atlanta.
Bears at Detroit
Sweet, bubbly Buddha...Do I really need to pick the Lions again? Yes. Yes, I do. The bears are struggling, and Detroit still hasn't seen a loss. I'm starting to feel good about the Thanksgiving game actually being interesting this year, for crying out loud. Take the Lions.
Steelers over Titans
Texans over Raiders
Colts over Chiefs
Bungles over Jags
Football Giants over Seahawks
Arizona over Vikings
Saints over Panthers
Bills over Eagles
Niners over Bucs
Pats over Jets
Chargers over Broncos
Pack over Falcons
Detroit over Bears
Okay, week 4 could have been better, but it could have been worse. Now, we're on to week five, and past the quarter-way point for the season.
Titans at Steelers
Okay, the Steelers are banged up and not looking that great this season so far, but we're back home this week and looking for a win. Starks is back on the team to shore up our line, and as far as I know, Keisel will be back in action this week. I think it's still gonna be an ugly game, but I'll take the Steelers by a hair.
Raiders at Texans
I want to pick the Raiders this week, but I got burned by them last week. They've beaten some tough opponents and they only lost to the Bills by a hair - but this one looks to be Houston's week. The Texans should have won by a lot more than they did last week, but they constantly shot themselves in the foot. They're at home this week and probably learning from last week's mistakes - assuming they do learn, then they'll win.
Chiefs at Colts
Yuck. Another one of those games. Neither team really deserves a win, but the Colts are due, and they're at home.
Bungles at Jags
Similar to the above situation, but with a few more W's mixed in. Normally, the move would be to take the home team, but the line is so close, it's a crap-shoot. I'll take the Bungles in this one.
Seahawks at the football Giants
Pretty easy call on this one. The 'Hawks stink, whereas the Giants are good and at home.
Steelers West at Vikings
Can the Vikes make a run on Detroit's perfect season record from a few years ago? This week will tell. I think they're only favored because they're at home, and Starks didn't go there. Cards pull this one off and prove that yet another team has bigger...equipment...than the Minnesota Lepers.
Saints at Panthers
Easy win for the Saints unless they get cocky.
Eagles at Bills
The Bills only lost by a field goal last week, and I'm seeing them going to the playoffs this year (write it down) - The Eagles are still lost. Vick's not long for this season, because he's going to start getting reckless and hurt himself. This being a big statement week, it might happen Sunday. Take the Bills in this one.
Bucs at Niners
Honestly, both of these teams is doing better than I thought they'd be at this point of the season. After some risky picks above, I'm going to play it safe and pick the home team in this matchup.
Jets at Pats
Don't bet against Brady. I did it last week, and life was not good. The Jets got tenderized by the Ravens last week (Shout-out: Sally, try to stop laughing at Flan, please. Flan, we'll get revenge for you on Nov 6th \Shout-out), and now they need to travel to Foxboro. The Jets are flying home in tears.
Chargers at Broncos
I still don't like the Broncos, and the Chargers are coming out strong. They might be on the road, but they're going to take this one.
Pack at Falcons
The Pack needs to lose at some point, but it's not going to be in Atlanta.
Bears at Detroit
Sweet, bubbly Buddha...Do I really need to pick the Lions again? Yes. Yes, I do. The bears are struggling, and Detroit still hasn't seen a loss. I'm starting to feel good about the Thanksgiving game actually being interesting this year, for crying out loud. Take the Lions.
Steelers over Titans
Texans over Raiders
Colts over Chiefs
Bungles over Jags
Football Giants over Seahawks
Arizona over Vikings
Saints over Panthers
Bills over Eagles
Niners over Bucs
Pats over Jets
Chargers over Broncos
Pack over Falcons
Detroit over Bears
Keller's Picks, Week 5
Check out the full Pick Em standings (week-by-week and YTD)
Last week, I learned that there might yet be some fight left in the Bengals, the 49ers are better than I thought, and that the Redskins are (mostly) for real. I also learned that I don't trust the Philadelphia Eagles and that I will continue to not trust them until such time as they blow someone out. Could be a good team, could be a bad team, could be anybody. I need to see them take out a season's worth of frustration out on some bunch of hapless bastards that just happened to be on the schedule. Until then, they're paper champions with an injury-prone quarterback and a suspect secondary (see below).
The jury is still out on Atlanta. They won at Seattle, which is never easy, but they also made Tavaris Jackson look like an all-star, which is much more difficult.
With six teams on bye, there are only 13 games this week. On to the picks!
NOLA at Carolina:
The Panthers are looking much better compared to last year and they've been competitive in all their games. The issue is that the Saints have moved past the stage where "doing their best and keeping it close" is progress. Also, Drew Brees. This is a sneaky line (Saints by 6.5). Carolina has been competitive, sure, but they've also lost two games by exactly seven points. One of those was at home when they were big underdogs to the Packers. Have a strange suspicion that the Saints will cover, but it's also tough to call this a lock, since they may only beat the Panthers by a field goal or four points.
Philly at Buffalo:
I've picked the Dream Team all four games this season and I'm 1-3, just like them. Last season, they allowed 2.5 touchdown passes per game and opposing quarterbacks posted an 80.8 quarterback rating. Then they added that dude from Oakland with the weird name. This season, they're allowing 2.5 touchdown passes a game and opposing quarterbacks have a 106.7. At this point, I would like to remind everyone that Buffalo has a great pass offense, they're at home, and they're ticked off that they blew a lead to the Bengals last week.
Seattle at NY Giants:
The Seahawks are starting to show progress, but the Giants are already a good team and are getting healthier by the week. And they're at home. And Seattle is a west coast team playing a 1 p.m. game. This is my Survivor Pool pick for Week 5, so the Giants better win.
Tennessee at Steelers:
This pick makes me hope I end the week at 12-1, with the Steelers ruining my perfect record by winning. But... I have to say I don't trust the Steelers run defense, Chris Johnson is looking better with every game, and Matt Hasselbeck seems to have found the Fountain of 2006.
Oakland at Houston:
If this game were a home game for the Raiders, I'd say there was real potential for the Texans to have a letdown. But, I think the home crowd, the dome, and the fact that Houston knows they need to stay focused will carry them over Oakland. God help me, the Raiders are a good team. They'll be in the playoff picture late in the season once they get to tee off on the Chiefs twice and have another game against the Broncos (also have Cleveland and Cincy coming up). They're just not good enough to beat a very good Texans team in Houston.
Kansas City at Indianapolis:
The Chiefs finally got a W last week at home and now it's the Colts turn. Two horrid offenses, two decent defenses. When in doubt, take the home team.
Arizona at Minnesota:
There will be no winless teams after this week! You heard it here first! This is officially more exclamation points than any review of this game deserves! The Vikings have played well in the first half thus far, Steelers West has played poorly in the second half. As long as Minnesota gets the halftime, the two teams will spend the second half trying to give the game to each other.
Tampa at San Francisco:
Niners are for real, someone has to win the NFC West, and Tampa is an average team trying to masquerade as a good team. I love me some Josh Freeman, but the supporting cast isn't there. Plus which, San Francisco is the kind of team that's built to beat the Bucs. They can get a lead and protect it with a solid defense and a strong running attack coupled with a quarterback that doesn't do anything stupid with the ball. No Freeman heroics this week.
San Diego at Denver:
I know the Chargers have, like, eight people healthy on defense and they're on the road. I understand. I also understand that the Broncos are a really, really bad team.
NY Jets at New England:
I would almost take the Jets if this game was in New York, but they seem to be having too many issues right now. It's entirely possible that they step up and back up some of their boasting in this game. They always seem to be able to get up for the Patriots. I just think there's too much Tom Brady and too many trouble areas for the Jets. But... I also have to say I don't think New England covers (-9.5).
Green Bay at Atlanta:
Have you seen the Packers? They're pretty good. If the Falcons defense made Tavaris Jackson look like an all-star in Week 4, think of how good Aaron Rodgers is going to look this week.
Chicago at Detroit:
At this point, I take the Lions until they lose, then I'll take them on a case-by-case basis. Against an inconsistent Bears team at home following a dramatic comeback victory on the road? When they'll be the hottest ticket in town after the Tigers get knocked out of the playoffs by the Yankees? You could argue that the expectations are too high and too unrealistic, but not with this match-up, not against a division rival, and not with me taking the Lions until they lose.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-2.5) over Tampa. That line means that a 49ers (that is better than people think) only needs to beat a Tampa team (that is worse than people think) by a field goal. At home. With Tampa having to make a west coast trip in a short week.
Moneyline of the Week:
Buffalo (+123) over Philly. A 3-1 team is at home and is an underdog to a 1-3 team? Say what? Dream Team keeps fading. Take the money (and the Bills) and run.
Over/Under of the Week:
Kansas City at Indianapolis (39, Under). I mentioned that these are two horrid offenses and two decent defenses, but I didn't mention that KC's highest offensive output of the season was 22 points and Indy's season high is 20 points. Yes, those two numbers add up to 42, which is greater than 39. But... Chiefs average 12.2 points a game and the Colts average 15.8. Which adds up to 29, which is much less than 39. There are some games that could turn into shootouts (Packers-Falcons, Jets-Patriots, Eagles-Bills), but they all have really high Over/Unders. I find it's always easier to take two bad offenses and the under than to risk a lop-sided blowout when one high-powered offense is firing on all cylinders and the other is not. Unless the Over looks suspiciously low, which none of them do.
NOLA over Carolina
Buffalo over Philly
Cincinnati over Jacksonville
NY Giants over Seattle
Tennessee over Steelers
Houston over Oakland
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Minnesota over Arizona
San Francisco over Tampa
San Diego over Denver
New England over NY Jets
Green Bay over Atlanta
Detroit over Chicago
Last week, I learned that there might yet be some fight left in the Bengals, the 49ers are better than I thought, and that the Redskins are (mostly) for real. I also learned that I don't trust the Philadelphia Eagles and that I will continue to not trust them until such time as they blow someone out. Could be a good team, could be a bad team, could be anybody. I need to see them take out a season's worth of frustration out on some bunch of hapless bastards that just happened to be on the schedule. Until then, they're paper champions with an injury-prone quarterback and a suspect secondary (see below).
The jury is still out on Atlanta. They won at Seattle, which is never easy, but they also made Tavaris Jackson look like an all-star, which is much more difficult.
With six teams on bye, there are only 13 games this week. On to the picks!
NOLA at Carolina:
The Panthers are looking much better compared to last year and they've been competitive in all their games. The issue is that the Saints have moved past the stage where "doing their best and keeping it close" is progress. Also, Drew Brees. This is a sneaky line (Saints by 6.5). Carolina has been competitive, sure, but they've also lost two games by exactly seven points. One of those was at home when they were big underdogs to the Packers. Have a strange suspicion that the Saints will cover, but it's also tough to call this a lock, since they may only beat the Panthers by a field goal or four points.
Philly at Buffalo:
I've picked the Dream Team all four games this season and I'm 1-3, just like them. Last season, they allowed 2.5 touchdown passes per game and opposing quarterbacks posted an 80.8 quarterback rating. Then they added that dude from Oakland with the weird name. This season, they're allowing 2.5 touchdown passes a game and opposing quarterbacks have a 106.7. At this point, I would like to remind everyone that Buffalo has a great pass offense, they're at home, and they're ticked off that they blew a lead to the Bengals last week.
Seattle at NY Giants:
The Seahawks are starting to show progress, but the Giants are already a good team and are getting healthier by the week. And they're at home. And Seattle is a west coast team playing a 1 p.m. game. This is my Survivor Pool pick for Week 5, so the Giants better win.
Tennessee at Steelers:
This pick makes me hope I end the week at 12-1, with the Steelers ruining my perfect record by winning. But... I have to say I don't trust the Steelers run defense, Chris Johnson is looking better with every game, and Matt Hasselbeck seems to have found the Fountain of 2006.
Oakland at Houston:
If this game were a home game for the Raiders, I'd say there was real potential for the Texans to have a letdown. But, I think the home crowd, the dome, and the fact that Houston knows they need to stay focused will carry them over Oakland. God help me, the Raiders are a good team. They'll be in the playoff picture late in the season once they get to tee off on the Chiefs twice and have another game against the Broncos (also have Cleveland and Cincy coming up). They're just not good enough to beat a very good Texans team in Houston.
Kansas City at Indianapolis:
The Chiefs finally got a W last week at home and now it's the Colts turn. Two horrid offenses, two decent defenses. When in doubt, take the home team.
Arizona at Minnesota:
There will be no winless teams after this week! You heard it here first! This is officially more exclamation points than any review of this game deserves! The Vikings have played well in the first half thus far, Steelers West has played poorly in the second half. As long as Minnesota gets the halftime, the two teams will spend the second half trying to give the game to each other.
Tampa at San Francisco:
Niners are for real, someone has to win the NFC West, and Tampa is an average team trying to masquerade as a good team. I love me some Josh Freeman, but the supporting cast isn't there. Plus which, San Francisco is the kind of team that's built to beat the Bucs. They can get a lead and protect it with a solid defense and a strong running attack coupled with a quarterback that doesn't do anything stupid with the ball. No Freeman heroics this week.
San Diego at Denver:
I know the Chargers have, like, eight people healthy on defense and they're on the road. I understand. I also understand that the Broncos are a really, really bad team.
NY Jets at New England:
I would almost take the Jets if this game was in New York, but they seem to be having too many issues right now. It's entirely possible that they step up and back up some of their boasting in this game. They always seem to be able to get up for the Patriots. I just think there's too much Tom Brady and too many trouble areas for the Jets. But... I also have to say I don't think New England covers (-9.5).
Green Bay at Atlanta:
Have you seen the Packers? They're pretty good. If the Falcons defense made Tavaris Jackson look like an all-star in Week 4, think of how good Aaron Rodgers is going to look this week.
Chicago at Detroit:
At this point, I take the Lions until they lose, then I'll take them on a case-by-case basis. Against an inconsistent Bears team at home following a dramatic comeback victory on the road? When they'll be the hottest ticket in town after the Tigers get knocked out of the playoffs by the Yankees? You could argue that the expectations are too high and too unrealistic, but not with this match-up, not against a division rival, and not with me taking the Lions until they lose.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-2.5) over Tampa. That line means that a 49ers (that is better than people think) only needs to beat a Tampa team (that is worse than people think) by a field goal. At home. With Tampa having to make a west coast trip in a short week.
Moneyline of the Week:
Buffalo (+123) over Philly. A 3-1 team is at home and is an underdog to a 1-3 team? Say what? Dream Team keeps fading. Take the money (and the Bills) and run.
Over/Under of the Week:
Kansas City at Indianapolis (39, Under). I mentioned that these are two horrid offenses and two decent defenses, but I didn't mention that KC's highest offensive output of the season was 22 points and Indy's season high is 20 points. Yes, those two numbers add up to 42, which is greater than 39. But... Chiefs average 12.2 points a game and the Colts average 15.8. Which adds up to 29, which is much less than 39. There are some games that could turn into shootouts (Packers-Falcons, Jets-Patriots, Eagles-Bills), but they all have really high Over/Unders. I find it's always easier to take two bad offenses and the under than to risk a lop-sided blowout when one high-powered offense is firing on all cylinders and the other is not. Unless the Over looks suspiciously low, which none of them do.
NOLA over Carolina
Buffalo over Philly
Cincinnati over Jacksonville
NY Giants over Seattle
Tennessee over Steelers
Houston over Oakland
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Minnesota over Arizona
San Francisco over Tampa
San Diego over Denver
New England over NY Jets
Green Bay over Atlanta
Detroit over Chicago
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