I originally thought about calling this post, "No Time for Love, Dr. Jones," but then I thought I'd need to add the hyphen and the "Drew" and then would anyone get the joke, and... well, I decided to leave all the 80s movies reference in the post itself and leave them out of the name. I only have one more, anyway, so it's not like I could develop a theme.
The post's name says it all: Stop Maurice Jones-Drew and you stop the Jacksonville offense. I don't think the Steelers need to bottle him up like they did against Chris Johnson last week -- although that would be nice -- since I think they can still win the game even if he gets 100 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars are about as talented as the Colts, but the primary differences are that their running back is better, their quarterback is younger, they don't have two all-star pass rushers, and they're not playing at home. Indianapolis almost beat the Steelers because Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and the home crowd took over the game. But, the key word there is almost, seeing as how the Steelers won that game and all. If MJD stays under 125 yards and only scores one touchdown, then he will be more than contained enough and the Steelers will win a close game. If MJD gets taken out of the game plan -- either because he's averaging two yards a carry or the Steelers have a two touchdown lead in the second half -- then the Steelers will win like they did against the Titans last week.
Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert is not as good as Matt Hasselbeck. Jacksonville went from David Garrard to Luke McCown to Gabbert and they got worse each time. But, sucking it up and going to the rookie quarterback is like giving dry birth to a porcupine; it's rough and it's painful, but it's gotta be done sometime. Mike Thomas is not as talented as Nate Washington. Ike Taylor was able to handle Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans, and did well against Andre Johnson, so he can more than handle Thomas. The trouble for the Jaguars is that Thomas has almost twice as many targets as any other pass catcher on the team, so Gabbert might throw the ball at him even if he's covered. That could mean that the Steelers could finally record their second interception of the season, which would make this a banner day.
Tight end Marcedes Lewis has only eight catches and 16 targets on the season and MJD has only been targeted 11 times as a receiver. If Gabbert looks at those guys a little more, then Jacksonville will get something out of the pass offense, but it won't be enough.
In order to stop MJD, you need to do a lot of the things that the Steelers did against CJ last week. Sound tackling, gap discipline, backside contain, excellent pursuit. But, you also need to bear in mind that he's a lot harder to tackle than anyone that usually carries a football. He's already short and he tends to run with a lower pad level than someone his height. At some point, he figured out that defenses would stop trying to tackle his legs and hips because they're so well-developed. That means that people who are trying to tackle him concentrate on his torso/head/shoulders area. As a result, MJD makes a lot of moves and jukes with his torso and leads in a given direction with his shoulders, when really it's his legs that control where he's headed. No one notices what he's doing with his legs because they're trying to tackle his shoulders. The tackler lunges the wrong way and MJD is off to the races.
Then there's the fact that he's short, powerful, and runs with a very low pad level. That means that, even if you managed to get your hands on him, you're probably going for a two yard ride. So, the secret is to focus on his feet, don't let him get low, and put someone in front of him that will make him want to juke. While he's juking, two dudes have to come in and tackle him. He's also a very patient runner, which means that stretching the play out and pushing him to the sidelines cuts out some of his options and makes it easier to push him out of bounds. Basically, if the Steelers can accomplish the same gap-shooting, gang tackling effort that they produced on defense last week, they can have similar -- and even better -- results against MJD.
Jacksonville's two best defensive linemen are defensive tackles -- Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton -- who are better at stopping the run than they are rushing the passer. They signed Aaron Kampman in the offseason, but he's been banged up and isn't enough of threat to single-handedly kill Ben Roethlisberger. They don't have enough of a pass rush to get to him enough to make him do something stupid. Or, at least not frequently enough that he makes as many mistakes as he did against the hated Ravens, and therefore costs the Steelers the game. This means that Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw and his likelihood of getting murdered is quite low. When he has time to throw, he's incredibly effective.
The only real way the Jaguars can get in his face is by blitzing him a lot. By a lot, I mean rushing six or more guys regularly. If they blitz Roethlisberger, he will destroy them. So, here's to hoping they blitz Roethlisberger.
Rasean Mathis will probably cover Mike Wallace. Mathis is a good player and has had success against the Steelers in the past, but he's not fast enough to cover Wallace and he's too aggressive, which means he'll take chances that he won't be able to compensate for. He'll probably start the game playing with a 7-10 yard cushion on Wallace, which leaves him open to those quick slants that the Steelers like to throw. If they throw enough of them, Mathis will start to creep in. At that point, fake the quick slant and have Wallace streak up the field. They can also try this with Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Hines Ward made his triumphant return to relevance last week and he'll be covered by Derek Cox. Derek Cox is not a very good player, so Ward might get some more looks in the red zone. The Jacksonville safeties are underrated and pretty versatile, but I think this defense is on the short end of too many match-ups for the safeties to swing the game.
Unless the Steelers commit seven turnovers again or allow MJD to gash them for 150 or more yards, I don't think the Jaguars win this game. But, I think that Jacksonville will hang in there enough and get get MJD close enough to 150 yards that they'll make it interesting. I also think the fact that their run defense is pretty stout and that the Steelers will still try to run at it -- even if they're not successful -- means that this game stays relatively close. The Steelers won't cover, is I guess what I'm trying to say.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Jaguars 14
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