Check out the full Pick Em standings (week-by-week and YTD)
Last week, I learned that there might yet be some fight left in the Bengals, the 49ers are better than I thought, and that the Redskins are (mostly) for real. I also learned that I don't trust the Philadelphia Eagles and that I will continue to not trust them until such time as they blow someone out. Could be a good team, could be a bad team, could be anybody. I need to see them take out a season's worth of frustration out on some bunch of hapless bastards that just happened to be on the schedule. Until then, they're paper champions with an injury-prone quarterback and a suspect secondary (see below).
The jury is still out on Atlanta. They won at Seattle, which is never easy, but they also made Tavaris Jackson look like an all-star, which is much more difficult.
With six teams on bye, there are only 13 games this week. On to the picks!
NOLA at Carolina:
The Panthers are looking much better compared to last year and they've been competitive in all their games. The issue is that the Saints have moved past the stage where "doing their best and keeping it close" is progress. Also, Drew Brees. This is a sneaky line (Saints by 6.5). Carolina has been competitive, sure, but they've also lost two games by exactly seven points. One of those was at home when they were big underdogs to the Packers. Have a strange suspicion that the Saints will cover, but it's also tough to call this a lock, since they may only beat the Panthers by a field goal or four points.
Philly at Buffalo:
I've picked the Dream Team all four games this season and I'm 1-3, just like them. Last season, they allowed 2.5 touchdown passes per game and opposing quarterbacks posted an 80.8 quarterback rating. Then they added that dude from Oakland with the weird name. This season, they're allowing 2.5 touchdown passes a game and opposing quarterbacks have a 106.7. At this point, I would like to remind everyone that Buffalo has a great pass offense, they're at home, and they're ticked off that they blew a lead to the Bengals last week.
Seattle at NY Giants:
The Seahawks are starting to show progress, but the Giants are already a good team and are getting healthier by the week. And they're at home. And Seattle is a west coast team playing a 1 p.m. game. This is my Survivor Pool pick for Week 5, so the Giants better win.
Tennessee at Steelers:
This pick makes me hope I end the week at 12-1, with the Steelers ruining my perfect record by winning. But... I have to say I don't trust the Steelers run defense, Chris Johnson is looking better with every game, and Matt Hasselbeck seems to have found the Fountain of 2006.
Oakland at Houston:
If this game were a home game for the Raiders, I'd say there was real potential for the Texans to have a letdown. But, I think the home crowd, the dome, and the fact that Houston knows they need to stay focused will carry them over Oakland. God help me, the Raiders are a good team. They'll be in the playoff picture late in the season once they get to tee off on the Chiefs twice and have another game against the Broncos (also have Cleveland and Cincy coming up). They're just not good enough to beat a very good Texans team in Houston.
Kansas City at Indianapolis:
The Chiefs finally got a W last week at home and now it's the Colts turn. Two horrid offenses, two decent defenses. When in doubt, take the home team.
Arizona at Minnesota:
There will be no winless teams after this week! You heard it here first! This is officially more exclamation points than any review of this game deserves! The Vikings have played well in the first half thus far, Steelers West has played poorly in the second half. As long as Minnesota gets the halftime, the two teams will spend the second half trying to give the game to each other.
Tampa at San Francisco:
Niners are for real, someone has to win the NFC West, and Tampa is an average team trying to masquerade as a good team. I love me some Josh Freeman, but the supporting cast isn't there. Plus which, San Francisco is the kind of team that's built to beat the Bucs. They can get a lead and protect it with a solid defense and a strong running attack coupled with a quarterback that doesn't do anything stupid with the ball. No Freeman heroics this week.
San Diego at Denver:
I know the Chargers have, like, eight people healthy on defense and they're on the road. I understand. I also understand that the Broncos are a really, really bad team.
NY Jets at New England:
I would almost take the Jets if this game was in New York, but they seem to be having too many issues right now. It's entirely possible that they step up and back up some of their boasting in this game. They always seem to be able to get up for the Patriots. I just think there's too much Tom Brady and too many trouble areas for the Jets. But... I also have to say I don't think New England covers (-9.5).
Green Bay at Atlanta:
Have you seen the Packers? They're pretty good. If the Falcons defense made Tavaris Jackson look like an all-star in Week 4, think of how good Aaron Rodgers is going to look this week.
Chicago at Detroit:
At this point, I take the Lions until they lose, then I'll take them on a case-by-case basis. Against an inconsistent Bears team at home following a dramatic comeback victory on the road? When they'll be the hottest ticket in town after the Tigers get knocked out of the playoffs by the Yankees? You could argue that the expectations are too high and too unrealistic, but not with this match-up, not against a division rival, and not with me taking the Lions until they lose.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-2.5) over Tampa. That line means that a 49ers (that is better than people think) only needs to beat a Tampa team (that is worse than people think) by a field goal. At home. With Tampa having to make a west coast trip in a short week.
Moneyline of the Week:
Buffalo (+123) over Philly. A 3-1 team is at home and is an underdog to a 1-3 team? Say what? Dream Team keeps fading. Take the money (and the Bills) and run.
Over/Under of the Week:
Kansas City at Indianapolis (39, Under). I mentioned that these are two horrid offenses and two decent defenses, but I didn't mention that KC's highest offensive output of the season was 22 points and Indy's season high is 20 points. Yes, those two numbers add up to 42, which is greater than 39. But... Chiefs average 12.2 points a game and the Colts average 15.8. Which adds up to 29, which is much less than 39. There are some games that could turn into shootouts (Packers-Falcons, Jets-Patriots, Eagles-Bills), but they all have really high Over/Unders. I find it's always easier to take two bad offenses and the under than to risk a lop-sided blowout when one high-powered offense is firing on all cylinders and the other is not. Unless the Over looks suspiciously low, which none of them do.
NOLA over Carolina
Buffalo over Philly
Cincinnati over Jacksonville
NY Giants over Seattle
Tennessee over Steelers
Houston over Oakland
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Minnesota over Arizona
San Francisco over Tampa
San Diego over Denver
New England over NY Jets
Green Bay over Atlanta
Detroit over Chicago
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