There was a time when the Arizona Cardinals had about 30 percent former Steelers coaches and players on their team and most of them played major roles. Now, they have Nick Eason, Joey Porter, and Clark Haggans, and most of the overlaps are on the coaching side. They have Whisenhunt and Grimm and they recently hired Ray Horton -- former secondary coach for the Steelers -- to be their defensive coordinator. As a matter of fact, if you go to the Coaches page on the Cardinals website, Horton's head shot still has him wearing a Steelers polo.
Now, you may recall that the Steeler secondary was kind of a weak spot for the team the last... well, decade or so. But, most importantly, it wasn't a dominant unit from when he arrived in 2004 until he left in 2010. Now that he's working with a bunch of young players and a few stragglers -- I was surprised to find that Porter and Haggans were still starting -- the results have not been good. What I'm trying to say is that the Cardinals pass defense sucks.
If you look up the stats, you'll find that they're "only" ranked 20th in passing yardage allowed and that they've kept opposing quarterbacks to some pretty respectable numbers: eight yards per attempt, six touchdowns, four interceptions, an 87.7 quarterback rating. What those stats leave out -- and this is the kind of insider information you'll only find on Steelers N At -- is the fact that they've played Donovan McNabb (benched), Rex Grossman (benched), and Tavaris Jackson (benched). When they've faced quarterbacks that are halfway decent (Cam Newton, Eli Manning), they've gotten crushed. Ben Roethlisberger is better than "halfway decent," so that means the Steelers should throw the ball a lot.
I may be biased because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that Mike Wallace should get a lot of those targets. The Cardinals have already given up 26 passing plays of 20 yards or more and four passing plays of 40 yards or more. They've only played five games, so that means that they've given up about five passes of 20+ yards and one pass play of 40+ yards per game. As a point of comparison, through six games, the Steelers have given up ten pass plays of 20+ yards and zero pass plays of 40+ yards. On offense, they have 21 pass plays of 20+ yards and five of 40+ yards. When the Steelers pass the ball, they throw it a long ways down the field. The Cardinals are vulnerable to that. The best big play threat the Steelers have is Mike Wallace, so they should chuck it deep to him early and often.
They also have Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, who are two guys with some speed that can catch the deep ball. Hines Ward has been playing better and getting more involved in the offense the last couple of weeks and he will be a factor as well. I know I'm always preaching about how the Steelers need to control the clock and run the ball, but I definitely don't feel that way this week. This week, I think that Roethlisberger should have 30 pass attempts by halftime.
If he drops back 30 times, that means there's a higher risk of him getting sacked. Well, the Cardinals pass rush isn't exactly fearsome and the offensive line has been providing better pass protection of late. I think they're up to the challenge and, if they aren't, they can max protect. I think that three of our guys can still get open against six of theirs. Add in the fact that Horton is a secondary coach by trade and likes to blitz safeties and cornerbacks and you get a well-protected Roethlisberger throwing to explosive receivers against an undermanned and undertalented secondary.
I'm happy that Rashard Mendenhall played better last week and had bigger holes to run through. If Roethlisberger throws the ball 30 times in the first half, the Steelers will probably need Mendenhall in the second half to run the ball and protect the lead. I'm not a huge fan of that strategy, but I've come to accept that it's how the Steelers roll.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals don't scare me on offense. It's not just that they have Kevin Kolb at quarterback instead of Kurt Warner. It's that their offensive line lost a lot of veteran leadership and they're not as good as they were in 2008. It's that they also don't have Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. It's that I honestly believe that Ike Taylor will do a good job covering Larry Fitzgerald. There are two ways the Cardinals can stay in/win this game: 1. Larry goes off or, 2. The Steelers turn the ball over a lot. That's the full list. The only guy on this entire team that really scares me is Larry Fitzgerald.
Beanie Wells is like Rashard Mendenhall, only not as fast. He's a capable back, he's the best guy on the team, but he's not an elite guy. He's not MJD or Arian Foster or Chris Johnson or Ray Rice. He also can't beat you all by himself like those guys can. He can beat you all by himself like Fitzgerald can -- and almost did in Super Bowl XLIII.
I also think that, whatever advantage Whis and Grimm had in terms of familiarity with personnel is now gone. A lot of the same guys still play for the Steelers, but most of them are in new roles and there are more new faces than you'd think. Specifically, Whis never coached Wallace, Sanders, Mendenhall, or 80 percent of the offensive line. Bruce Arians has been running the same scheme for the last hundred years and LeBeau never shows you the same thing twice. This is Mike Tomlin's team now. They were really Bill Cowher's team the last time the Steelers traveled to Arizona in 2007.
If the Cardinals come out with the secondary back and try to guard against the deep ball, throw short. If they press, throw deep. If they blitz, max protect and throw deeper. The Steelers just need to pass early, they need to pass often, and they need to keep passing until they're pretty sure everyone is dead.
If they do that, then my prediction makes sense. If they try to control the clock and impose their will, they still win, just not by as much.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Steelers West 14
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