Let's just get this out there right off the bat: I don't think the Steelers are going to win this game. I'd say I'm 99% certain that the Patriots are going to beat them and probably beat them soundly. That remaining 1% doesn't come from logic.
Well, so, there's a bunch of reasons. Brady's 6-1 against the Steelers for his career. The Patriots just came off a bye and they've won eight straight (regular season) games coming off a bye. Matchups are a huge issue because the Steelers don't have enough depth in the secondary (note that I said "depth" not "talent"). Then there's the fact that the Patriots tend to make better in-game adjustments than pretty much anyone, but especially the Steelers.
The thing is that understanding how to beat the Patriots is pretty easy. You need to stop Tom Brady, not get intimidated, and score enough points on offense to keep up with them. Simple, right? Well, it's also easy to understand how to make as much money as Mark Zuckerberg, it's just incredibly difficult to come up with something like Facebook and take the right steps to make sure it takes off. The difficulty of the task lies in the execution, which is why New England hasn't lost a lot of games in the last decade or so.
Here's what they need to do, but I doubt that they'll be able to do it.
Contain Wes Welker:
If Ike Taylor is as successful against Welker as he was against Larry Fitzgerald last week, that counts as a win. I'm not saying he will have had a bad game if Welker gets more than four receptions for 78 yards. I'm saying that Fitz caught four balls on ten targets last week, so he only caught a pass 40% of the time. Welker has been targeted an average of 13 times a game thus far this season. To make the math easy, let's say he gets targeted 15 times on Sunday. If he finishes with six catches, that's a good sign.
Taylor has had a very good season thus far and I think he's up to the task, but he's also struggled against Welker in the past, so we shall see.
Don't Let Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski Kill You:
Part of the Steelers undoing last season was that they weren't able to handle the talented tight end duo. They need to come out with three linemen, Woodley and Timmons, and six defensive backs, then move Troy in close like he's a linebacker. New England varies how they line up Hernandez and Gronkowski. Sometimes, they'll line up next to the tackles, sometimes they'll split out wide like receivers. Woodley and Timmons need to mirror them and chuck them within five yards of the line, with Troy and the other defensive backs providing support.
Brady doesn't like pressure up the middle, so blitz Troy until it works, then back off. Rinse, repeat.
Tackling was a major issue in last year's game and the Steelers can't afford to have the first guy miss. The Patriots tend to isolate guys so that they just need to break one tackle and start running, which means gang tackling is not going to be an option.
Spreading the linebackers out like this will create some huge natural running lanes, but that's ultimately not an issue, because...
We Don't Need to Make Assurances as if We Were Lawyers:
Brady will see those nice, juicy running lanes and want to take advantage of it. He'll audible to a lot of running plays, especially early. What the Steelers need to do is not freak out when BenJarvis Green-Ellis (The Law Firm) starts getting five or six yards a carry. What they need to remember is that BJGE getting 5.5 yards per rush is better than Brady getting ten yards per pass attempt.
New England has a tendency to try to turn everything into a shootout. The Steelers need to brace for that and stay in the fight.
Be Efficient on Offense and Don't Panic:
At some point, Bill Belichick realized that the NFL changed the rules so drastically that it didn't make sense to try and play defense. From there on, he focused on building a team that could score as many points as possible. The fact that the Patriots are so prolific on offense puts pressure on the other team's defense, but it also puts a great deal of pressure on the other team's offense because they feel as though they need to keep up.
Imagine a party on a Friday night. The New England offense is the Hot Cheerleader and the other offense is the Awkward Girl that ditched the overalls, glasses, and ponytail and decided that she wanted to be pretty. She may be prettier than the Hot Cheerleader and she may make that girl nervous or uneasy, but the hot cheerleader is still a hot cheerleader and everyone knows it. All she needs to do is keep being a hot cheerleader, which is like breathing. She just needs to wait until the Awkward Girl knocks something over or reference Proust and then the Hot Cheerleader has the ball.
What the Awkward Girl needs to do is keep things together until the Hot Cheerleader has too many shots and passes out in the basement. She can't panic, because the Hot Cheerleader can smell fear.
The Steelers can't turn the ball over and they can't try to force what isn't there. They also can't just lean on the run and try to play keep away, since the Patriots are actually very good at defending the run and the Steelers are actually pretty bad at running the ball.
Point blank, New England's pass defense kinda sucks. They're last in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. Taking the stance that they've been in the lead all season and teams have been desperately passing the ball in an attempt to catch up isn't valid. They've allowed 8.5 yards per attempt. They have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, with 37. They just had their bye, which means they allow over six completions of 20+ yards per game. The opportunities will be there. The Steelers don't need to force anything, they just need to make the plays when they're open.
They need to be balanced and efficient on offense. They can't commit dumb penalties. They can't blow assignments. They need to convert on third down. They need to convert in the red zone. They can't turn the ball over. They need to keep rolling with the punches, stay with the Patriots, not flinch, and wait until the Hot Cheerleader passes out in the basement.
And... that's it. That's all they need to do. Easy, right? Please join my social networking site so that I can become a billionaire.
Prediction:
Patriots 31, Steelers 23
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