Keller's Picks, Week 8

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Last week was not kind to the kind citizens of Pick Em Land, but this week looks promising.  There are fewer swing games and more games that look like they're sure things.  I also think that the upsets are going to be easier to sniff out (including our Moneyline of the Week).  But, that's just what I think and my opinions aren't worth much, historically.

Having said that, you should totally use all my picks for your pool this week.

Indianapolis at Tennessee:

This is a tougher call than you might think, since everyone knows that the Colts are sucking something awful this year and the Titans at least beat Baltimore.  But, both teams got taken to the woodshed last week, so it's not a slam dunk (and maybe it's a bad idea for Vegas to favor the Titans by 9).  Still, I think Tennessee has the better quarterback, they're playing at home, and Chris Johnson needs to do something to keep fantasy football players everywhere from showing up at his house with pitchforks and torches.

Jacksonville at Houston:

This one is more of a slam dunk.  I know the Jags beat the hated Ravens on Monday Night Football, but that also means a short week.  You know who else beat the hated Ravens?  The Titans, who got shellacked by the Texans in Week 7.

Minnesota at Carolina:

I'm gonna pick some road teams, I promise.  I think the Panthers are starting to put things together and I think they're learning how to limit mistakes and win close games.  I think Cam Newton is getting better, which is pretty scary.  The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is Adrian Peterson.  He seems primed for one of those games where he just destroys everyone and everything.  Peterson fills me with doubt, so take the home team.

NOLA at St. Louis:

See?  Road team.  I was wrong to pick against the Saints to cover last week.  These tune-up games are perfect for them.  They always win them in impressive fashion.

Arizona at Baltimore:

Joe Flacco struggled last week against Jacksonville.  You know what's going to be best for what's ailing him?  The crappy Cardinals secondary.  Also, I think John Harbaugh has Suggs, Lewis, Ngata, and Reed that Kevin Kolb had group sex with their mothers.  This one's gonna be ugly.

Miami at NY Giants:

Giants are finally getting healthy and the Dolphins are still completely terrible at the game of football.

Washington at Buffalo:

Half the guys on the Redskins are on injured reserve and the other half of them are just injured.  This team is taking on serious amounts of water and they draw a well-rested Bills team playing at home.  Not a good draw.  I don't think this game is a blowout, but I think Buffalo wins comfortably and gets back on track.

Detroit at Denver:

I don't buy into Tebowmania and I just read that Matthew Stafford is practicing and should be available on Sunday.  Denver and Tebow were barely good enough to beat the completely terrible Dolphins last week.  It's gut check time for the Lions, who have the opportunity to gain half a game on the idle Packers.  Interesting stat: Tebow was sacked seven times by the completely terrible Dolphins last week.  Related sidenote: Detroit's defensive line is very, very good.

New England at Steelers:

Too much Tom Brady, their offensive line is too good, too much Wes Welker, their defense will do just enough to win this game.  There are a bunch of reasons why the Patriots will win on Sunday.  Check back later this week to find out what the Steelers need to do to win.

Cleveland at San Francisco:

Interesting sidenote: In my one league, I have Aaron Rodgers and he's on bye.  A few weeks back, I picked up Alex Smith because I knew he was playing Cleveland this week.  I also have Michael Crabtree.  I dropped Smith and added Andy Dalton, because I think the Browns pass defense is pretty good.  Cleveland needs to celebrate the small victories, because there's no way they're winning this game.

Cincinnati at Seattle:

OK.  I can't believe I'm going to type this, but here goes: This prediction hangs on whether or not Tavaris Jackson plays.  Jackson was inching his way towards respectability and I think he was very nearly there before he got hurt.  I think he can make enough plays to win against a tough Cincy defense.  I also think that the Bengals aren't ready to win this game.  They're still young, it's a cross-country trip, Seattle plays better at home, and everyone on the Bengals had the bye week to read all about how they're a surprise team that's going to make some noise.  Something about Cincinnati's history tells me that they choke this one away just as everyone is starting to believe in them.

Dallas at Philadelphia:

I had this game picked at the beginning of the season.  Andy Reid has never lost a game following a bye (regular season only).  Don't think about it too much, just follow me blindly.

San Diego at Kansas City:

1. The Chiefs started out horrible, then lost a bunch of guys, then re-grouped.
2. Todd Haley has realized that he can't run the same offense he wanted to when the season started and he has adjusted.
3. The defense is improving.
4. KC is trending positive, while the Chargers are trending negative.
5. Norv Turner still coaches the San Diego Chargers.
6. There is something wrong with Philip Rivers.  I think he's hurt pretty badly, but he doesn't want anyone to know.
7. This game is in Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football.  Everyone will be drunk and rowdy by kickoff and the fans will help the Chiefs take this game over.

Line of the Week:

This is a tough one.  If the Patriots win, then they'll win by more than a field goal, so take them (-3 at Steelers).  The line has already moved a point since Monday, so get on it now because it's only going to keep going up.  I have not fully convinced myself that New England is going to win yet and I think the Lions (-3) at Denver is a safer bet.  The Broncos suck something awful and Football Jesus isn't going to miracle them to victory this week.  If Stafford plays -- and it looks like he is going to -- then they're pretty much a lock to cover.


Moneyline of the Week:

If Tavaris Jackson plays, take the Seahawks (+129) and the money and run.  If he doesn't, the Chiefs look mighty attractive at (+171).  Double your pleasure (and your money) and bet both!


Over/Under of the Week:

After last week's debacle -- I said to take the Over on Seahawks-Browns and they ended up combining for nine points -- I'm not going to get cute.  Take the Under on Seahawks-Bengals.  Both teams have consistently hit the under, regardless of opponents.  Both teams are solid on defense and not so awesome on offense.

Tennessee over Indianapolis
Houston over Jacksonville
Carolina over Minnesota
NOLA over St. Louis
Baltimore over Arizona
NY Giants over Miami
Buffalo over Washington
Detroit over Denver
New England over Steelers
San Francisco over Cleveland
Seattle over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Dallas
Kansas City over San Diego