Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Keller's Picks, Week 7

Click here to view the Pick 'Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD).

I lost a game off my Pick 'Em lead last week, so I need to buckle down.  This is an interesting slate of games, since there are a number that could go either way (what I like to call "swing" games).  I've done well in my swing games thus far this season against Weidman, which of course means that he'll either pick all the same winners as me this week.  If he doesn't, go with his picks.  Just to switch it up.

Chicago at Tampa:

When in doubt, go with the... oh, wait.  This game is being played in London, which basically means that the Bucs get screwed out of a home game.  My opinion of the Bears changes from week to week, but this week I'm high on them.  I think that Mike Martz calls a pretty conservative game, Matt Forte has a pretty big day, and Chicago does just enough on offense and defense to survive across the pond.

Washington at Carolina:

I spent the whole season backing Sexy Rexy, then he turned in a QBERT rating of -15 against the Eagles last week.  Now, the John Beck Era begins in Washington.  I think Cam Newton's legs make the difference in this game, because pretty much everything else is a wash.  Also, Panthers are at home.

San Diego at NY Jets:

Jets have a short week and looked pretty underwhelming against a godawful Dolphins team.  Chargers had a bye week to get healthy, which was their biggest issue thus far this season.  Considering that they went 4-1 with 14 players on the active roster, I'd say they're a pretty good team. 

Seattle at Cleveland:

I really don't want to take the Browns, but they're at home and the Seahawks still have Tavaris Jackson and his 13.2 QBERT rating at quarterback.

Houston at Tennessee:

The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for the Texans and two weeks to think about how bad the Steelers beat them in Week 5.  Houston has a pretty ordinary offense without Andre Johnson.  They have a pretty ordinary defense without Mario Williams.  Ordinary won't get it done against a well-rested Hasselbeck in Nashville.

Denver at Miami:

I mentioned that the Dolphins are godawful, right?  Well, they are.  I know that the Broncos just traded their best receiver and that they suck pretty bad and they're on the road.  But, Miami is 1-10 in their last 11 home games, so I wouldn't give them much of a home field advantage.  There is also the emergence of the Football Jesus himself, Tim Tebow.  He just wins.  He's a competitor.  He's a leader.  TIM TEBOW'S QBERT IS UNDEFINED BECAUSE HE DIVIDES BY ZERO.  Seriously, though, these are two crappy teams.  You go with the one that has the player with the most ability and the most upside, which is the Denver Broncos.

Atlanta at Detroit:

The Lions burned me last week, but I'm willing to give them another chance.  Because they're at home.  And Atlanta is still in the penalty box.  And Detroit's defensive line will take this game over because they will destroy Matt Ryan and bottle Michael Turner up.

Kansas City at Oakland:

Carson Palmer on three days of practice... or KC?  That's a tough call.  When in doubt, take the home team.  Also, I carefully devised this equation:

Playing for Dead Owner + Rallying Around New Quarterback + At Home > Kansas City Chiefs

If this game were at Arrowhead or if somehow managed to die again, then I would take the Chiefs.  I can't believe I keep backing the Raiders even though, up until about a week ago, I actually thought their head coach's name was Huey Lewis.

Steelers at Steelers West:

I know their defensive coordinators used to coach our defensive backs.  I know Whis and Grimm are still there.  I know they have a lot of former Steelers.  I know they're tough at home.  I also know that their secondary sucks, Beanie Wells can't get out of his own way, and Kevin Kolb is only a slight upgrade over Max Hall.

St. Louis at Dallas:

The Rams will break out of this funk at some point.  Brandon Lloyd will help.  Sam Bradford getting healthy will help.  Playing the NFC West will help.  Unfortunately, the Cowboys are fired up this week, they're at home, and they're a way better team than St. Louis.

Green Bay at Minnesota:

Do... do we really need an explanation on this one?  If I had picked the Vikings, would you have been like, "Oh, hey, well if Keller thinks they're gonna win, then yeah."  If so, I'm flattered.  I'm also a little ashamed.

Indianapolis at NOLA:

The Saints aren't the rolling juggernaut they once appeared to be, but they're plenty good enough to beat the Colts.

Baltimore at Jacksonville:

See: Pick, Green Bay at Minnesota.

Line of the Week: 

Indianapolis (+14) at NOLA.  The Saints are much better than the Colts and they will win this game.  But, two touchdowns?  And that's a push?  The New Orleans defense is too shaky to blow anyone out that bad.

Moneyline of the Week:

Denver (+112) at Miami.  Tebow can divide by zero.  Also, Miami sucks real bad and they've lost 10 of their last 11 at home.

Over/Under of the Week:

Seattle at Cleveland (41, OVER).  Two mediocre defenses and it's October, so it's not like there will be three feet of snow.  Three feet of snow is the only thing that will keep this at the under.

Chicago over Tampa
Carolina over Washington
San Diego over NY Jets
Cleveland over Seattle
Tennessee over Houston
Denver over Miami
Detroit over Atlanta
Oakland over Kansas City
Steelers over Steelers West
Dallas over St. Louis
Green Bay over Minnesota
NOLA over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Jacksonville

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