Weidman's Picks, Week 13

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

I had a really good week last week, but I unfortunately dropped a swing game to Keller. Not looking good for me down the stretch, but I'm gonna soldier on. I have a feeling Keller's gonna drop all his games this week and make me Supreme Awesome Guy.

Philly at Seattle
Yet another birdie fight for the season, and once again, it's two kinda crappy teams. The Dream Team is favored, but I don't care - Philly chokes in important matchups, they're traveling across the country and Seattle is at home.

Jets at Skins
Skins are just kinda limping along now, and the Jets are still playing for something. Despite being on the road, they've got this one.

Chiefs at Bears
Despite winning, we really let the Chiefs off the hook last week. Now way that game should have been that close. Word is, Palko is still getting the start even though they have Orton now. Given that, being on the road and the fact that the Bears are a much better team, KC loses this one decisively.

Titans at Bills
Too close to call. I like the Bills in this game, but it's still not that simple. When in doubt, take the home team.

Oakland at Miami
Okay, Miami is actually favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still Miami. They're terrible, and Oakland is a strong force in their division riding a winning streak.

Bungles at Steelers
Okay, the Steelers are heavily favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still the Steelers. They play down to the level of their opponents, and the Bungles are very good this season...but they're still the Steelers and this is a must-win game for them in front of a home crowd. Win, yes. Ass-stomping, no.

Falcons at Texans
I'm gonna flip a coin here. *flip* Crap. It landed on its edge. Well, I took the home team above, so I'll take the road team here.

Broncos at Vikings
No coin flip here, but it's still going to be close. The Vikings are at home, but this week's theme is remembering who teams are - and they're still the Vikings.

Panthers at Bucs.
The Panthers won last week. Yippie for them. Against the Colts. No yippie for me and my pick. This week, the Bucs will win one for my honor.

Colts at Pats.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *deep breath, sip of water* BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Ahem

Pats.

Ravens at Browns
There's one irrelevant team in our division, and that's the Browns. They do like to play to ruin other teams' seasons, but it won't happen this week. Baltimore smells blood in the water and they're not going to drop a division game if they can help it.

Pack at New York Football Giants
Pack keeps a'rollin, all season long.

Cowboys at Steelers West
Cards' season is over. You know it, I know it, they know it. Instead of playing for pride, I think they're playing for next season now.

Rams at Niners
You don't even need to look at the line to know that this is the second most obvious game of the week.

Detroit at Saints
With Ndamukong Suh* doing his best James Harrison impression, Detroit is on the road without a key player, and NOLA is undefeated at home. Lions have been good on the road, but missing that key piece of their defense and the Saints being unstoppable at home...yeah, it's the Saints in this one.
*Why, yes, I copy-and-pasted his name. Thank you for asking.

Chargers at Jags
Hmm...boring MNF game. The Jags are the lesser team, and they just lost their coach. Chargers are coming in and spanking them.

Seattle over Philly
Jets over Skins
Bears over Chiefs
Bills over Titans
Oakland over Miami
Steelers over Bungles
Falcons over Texans
Broncos over Vikings
Bucs over Panthers
Pats over Colts
Ravens over Browns
Pack over New York Football Giants
Cowboys over Steelers West
Niners over Rams
Saints over Detroit
Chargers over Jags

Keller's Pick, Week 13

(Click here to see current Pick Em standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

Had a solid week last week and went 1-0 in swing games, expanding my lead over the increasingly sage Weidman.

This week's games frighten and confuse me, so I'm sure to go 16-0.

Philadelphia over Seattle:
I know the Eagles got crushed by the Pats last week and they're on the road on the west coast without Mike Vick and Jeremy Maclin on four days rest in a tough place to play.  Wait.  Those are all pretty compelling reasons to take the Hawks.  But, Seattle can't exploit Philly's weaknesses on defense and the Eagles will be able to score points.  Plus, they've got Vince Young.  All Young does is win football games.  That's all he do. He was Tebow before Tebow was Tebow.

Carolina at Tampa:
The Bucs can't stop the run, but the Panthers can't run the ball unless it's Cam Newton running it.  Still off the Carolina bandwagon and Tampa's at home.  That's a sneaky line, though, with the Bucs favored by 3.5.  I think they win by a field goal, but not four or more.

Cincinnati at Steelers:
Hey, look at that!  It's another weird line (Steelers by 6.5).  I don't think they win by a touchdown, but Steeler Nation is probably moving the money in their direction.  Steelers already beat the Bengals and I don't think the Might Ginger wins this game on the road.  He's done exceptionally well on the road, but I just don't see it.

Atlanta at Houston:
When I was thinking about this write-up, I thought the game was in Atlanta.  I thought, "The Falcons are tough at home.  If that game was in Houston, I'd take the Texans."  That's as good a reason as any to welcome in the TJ Yates Era.

NY Jets at Washington:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence for the Jets.  This is about the time of year when they wake up and realize that you don't automatically make the playoffs just because you think you're awesome... then they turn it on.  That starts here.  Hopefully for Santonio Holmes, especially, because I have a must-win fantasy game this week.

Indianapolis at New England:
Interesting note: Dan Orlovsky and Ernie Sims were both on the Detroit team that went 0-16 and they're both on the Colts this year.  Another interesting note: Indy is horrible and the Pats aren't, so Tom Brady and company roll.

Oakland at Miami:
The Dolphins are on a roll of sorts, the Raiders are headed in the other direction, Darren McFadden probably still won't be available, and they have no healthy receivers.  Plus which, I'm picking like 38 road teams this week, so I need to even things out.

Denver at Minnesota:
FOOTBALL JESUS PARTS THE TWIN CITIES.

Tennessee at Buffalo:
Buffalo lost their ninth starter to injured reserve this week and can't stop the run.  Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer are good players.  Somehow, the Bills are favored.  Something to keep in mind.

Kansas City at Chicago:
The Bears bandwagon is looking awfully desolate at this point, so I'm thinking about jumping off.  However, the only thing more awful than Chicago's bandwagon is the Chiefs offense.  Unless Kyle Orton and Thomas Jones go all Chad Brown on their former team -- which I don't think happens -- the Bears are going to win this one pretty easy.

Baltimore at Cleveland:
Hated Ravens are well-rested after a dominant Thanksgiving night performance against the 49ers.  They know they need to win to stay in the hunt.  Aside from playing spoiler, the Browns don't have much going for them.

Dallas at Arizona:
If the Cowboys remember to not kick to Patrick Peterson, they'll be just fine.  Steelers West still has an atrocious secondary and Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten are pretty good.

Green Bay at NY Giants:
Interesting note: Green Bay is a rolling juggernaut and, even if I picked against them, you shouldn't.  Keep picking them until they lose.  Or until the wrap up the first seed and Mike McCarthy decides to rest the starters.  Whichever comes first.

St. Louis at San Francisco:
John Harbaugh's brother is going to have his guys ready to go and fired up.  Also, the Rams may secretly be trying to be a worse team than the Colts, if that's possible.  Unfortunately for them, it isn't.

Detroit at NOLA:
Did anyone watch the game on Monday night?  I sure didn't, but I did notice that the Saints averaged 8.3 yards per play.  Every time they snapped the ball, 8.3 yards.  I am super glad I dropped Detroit's defense.

San Diego at Jacksonville:
Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver announced that he fired coach Jack Del Rio and plans to sell the team.  I'm... thinking they'll be a little distracted.  Also, Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert.

Line of the Week:
Baltimore (-6.5 over Cleveland).  Hated Ravens win by at least a touchdown.  I don't care that this game is in Cleveland.  It could be in Paul Brown's private suite in heaven and Baltimore would still win by a touchdown.

Moneyline of the Week:
Texans (+127) are underdogs at home, but I can't pin my Moneyline of the Week on a rookie quarterback named after a William Shatner character.  I'm gonna go Tennessee (+115) over Buffalo.

Over/Under of the Week:
Kansas City at Chicago (37.5).  New quarterback + backup quarterback + Chicago in December = UNDER.

Philly over Seattle
Tampa over Carolina
Steelers over Cincinnati
Houston over Atlanta
NY Jets over Washington
New England over Indianapolis
Miami over Oakland
Denver over Minnesota
Tennessee over Buffalo
Chicago over Kansas City
Baltimore over Cleveland
Dallas over Arizona
Green Bay over NY Giants
San Francisco over St. Louis
NOLA over Detroit
San Diego over Jacksonville

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Chiefs

I was talking to a co-worker about the game this morning.  He's from Argentina and follows soccer a lot more closely than he follows the NFL, but I thought he summed last night's game up nicely.  He said, "The Steelers sucked last night.  Fortunately, the Chiefs sucked even more."  That's about all the information you really need, but you can read on if you want to check out the good news and the bad news.

Good News first...

1. They won.  And, gosh darnit, a win is a win.  They'll need to keep winning games in which they suck, because the hated Ravens don't look like they're going to go away any time soon.  Baltimore plays Cleveland twice, Indy, at San Diego, and at Cincinnati the rest of the season.  The Steelers also draw Cleveland twice, Cincy once, and they get to play the Rams, but they also have to travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers on a Monday night.  If the season ended today, the hated Ravens would win the division and the Steelers would be the #5 seed.  The only way to improve that seeding is to win out and hope Baltimore drops another game.
2. They forced four turnovers.  I don't care that Tyler Palko played a horrible game and basically gift wrapped three of the turnovers.  The defense still took advantage of the opportunities that were presented to them and they haven't been the most opportunistic bunch thus far this year.  One of those turnovers closed out the game, which has also been an issue since about Super Bowl XLIII.
3. Max Starks did a great job against Tamba Hali.  I'm not sure what got into him.  Maybe it was being unemployed and out of shape that lit a fire under him.  I've been unemployed and out of shape before and I don't recall improving this much in a two month period, but whatever.  I'm happy that he's in at left tackle and playing well.
4. Ike Taylor continues to impress.  He had another great game with four tackles, an interception, and two passes defended.  Yes, one of those "passes defended" was an interception that went through his hands and bounced off his facemask, but we all knew going into this game that Taylor can't catch.  What was particularly impressive to me was that he accomplished everything he accomplished in man coverage and he was generally assigned to Kansas City's hottest receiver all game.  He lined up across from Steve Breaston and Dwayne Bowe at different points in the game, depending on who Dick LeBeau thought was going to get targeted.  In general, Palko was smart enough to avoid Taylor, which means his hottest receiver was unavailable to him for most of the evening.  That's a pretty nice weapon for LeBeau to have in his arsenal.
5. Suisham converted both his field goal attempts.  Jeff Reed is still available.

Now for the Bad News:

1. The box score says that the Chiefs had one sack and four quarterback hits.  If you saw that and didn't watch the game, then checked Steelers N At and saw that Starks played well against Hali, then you'd think that the offensive line had a good game and Ben Roethlisberger wasn't pressured all that much.  Fortunately, we both watched the game and we've gotten to the Bad News section of the post, so we can dispel that misguided assumption.  The offensive line sucked.  Without Pouncey to make the line calls and fortify the middle of the line, they got shredded up the middle and Roethlisberger was dodging defenders all night.  Really, the only pass rushing weapon the Chiefs have is Hali.  Stop him and you're supposed to stop their pass rush.  Given the fact that Hali was stopped and the pass rush still harassed Roethlisberger all night, we had all better hope that Pouncey doesn't miss a significant amount of time.  The interior of the offensive line got abused by a bunch of marginal players.  That's very, very bad news considering that they don't play a lot of teams with marginal players on the defensive interior the next few weeks and they certainly won't face any in the playoffs.
2. I really have no idea what was going on with the offensive game plan.  This is not to take anything away from the Kansas City defense, because they played extremely well, hung in there, and didn't have any lapses in coverage like they did against the Patriots.  I know Mike Wallace didn't play well -- he had two drops, looked like he quit on a few other routes, and was not a very enthusiastic blocker -- but you still need to get him the ball.  If the defenders are giving him a 10 or 11 yard cushion, throw some slants or some quick screens.  If they crowd him at the line, throw deep.  This is a strategy that also works for Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown.  All three of those guys are fast and explosive and are dangerous in the open field.  Hines Ward is no longer that guy, if he ever was.  Why throw a bunch of those quick screens to him when you have Brown, Wallace, and Sanders?  Why keep trying to throw deep to Wallace when two members of the secondary are essentially lined up at the goal line?  Bruce Arians has never been great at making in game adjustments, but the two adjustments he made -- the screens to Ward and putting Wallace in motion to get him away from Brandon Flowers -- were bad ideas and also didn't work.  It could be that Roethlisberger was supposed to audible to a screen or a slant or a 10 yard out when he saw the cornerbacks playing off and never did.  But, if he missed that the first time, it's up to Arians or quarterbacks coach Ken Anderson to remind him.
3. They turned the ball over twice, with one of those turnovers coming in the red zone.
4. They were 1-for-3 in the red zone, including the aforementioned turnover.
5. I'm concerned about the illness that got Pouncey pulled from the game.  Is it just the flu?  Is it something worse?  Does he have Lupus?  It's just weird that team doctors said, "illness" instead of just saying that he had the flu.  I guess we'll check the injury report on Wednesday and see if this mysterious ailment still has him sidelined.  I'm just suspicious because the Steelers are keeping everyone in the dark, which only adds to the conjecture.  Whatever the illness is, I'd prefer that they just tell us and get it over with.
6. I'm more concerned about Troy's injury.  If it was a concussion or "concussion-like symptoms" (whatever that means) that kept him out of the game, then maybe he should shut it down for a few games.  He's got a history with brain injuries going all the way back to Southern Cal and you only get one brain.  Ever since Crosby took an extended leave because of his concussion injuries, I've been thinking that football players should be treated even more gingerly.  Sure, they wear better helmets and more padding than hockey players, but the guys they're hitting and getting hit by are bigger and stronger.  Again, I'm not a doctor, but I'm thinking the Steelers should err on the side of caution and not rush him back, even if he keeps insisting on it.  I'd rather see him out of the line-up than become a vegetable or lose his mind like Mike Webster did.
7. According to the stats, Jason Worilds had the team's only sack and four quarterback hits.  To me, he looked really uncomfortable and awkward when he had to rush the passer.  I can't wait for LaMarr Woodley to come back.

The bottom line is that they needed to win to keep pace and they won and kept pace.  They can't play this sloppily against the Bengals and hope to win.  They can't play this sloppily again this season if they expect to win -- not even against the Browns or the Rams.

Let's just hope they keep sucking a little bit less than the competition.

Homecoming for Palko: Steelers at Chiefs Preview

Well, so, the game is in Kansas City, which means it's not really a homecoming.  But, Palko is from here and that counts for something, right?

I have a feeling that Tyler Palko will not like facing the team he grew up rooting for.  If the Chiefs approach Sunday night's game with the same strategy on offense and defense that kept them competitive in the first half against the Patriots on Monday, the Steelers are going to destroy them.  Kansas City "went big" on defense, using their heaviest defensive linemen and they kept everyone in tight, playing mostly man to man.  They didn't blitz as much as the announcers let on, but they definitely brought pressure.  If they do that against the Steelers, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will get behind the coverage and Ben Roethlisberger will torch them.

Basically, Marcus Gilbert needs to keep Tamba Hali from killing Roethlisberger and everything will be fine.  Kansas City's defense blows assignments, they don't tackle well, and they're not particularly fast.  Hali is their only weapon.  Double team him and you're good to go.  You can run on them, you can throw on them, you can run through them, and you can run by them.

Palko hung in there for a little while against New England, but he's ultimately not talented enough to win a big game against a good team.  He's a capable back-up, but the fact that the Chiefs signed Kyle Orton this week tells me that they don't see him as being the quarterback of the future.  I don't think ol' neckbeard will have enough practice time in to start on Sunday night, but he should be able to help them for the final five games of the season.

With the depth they have at running back: Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster, and Thomas Jones, it's not unusual to see them split carries, but Jones usually gets the bulk of them.  None of these guys is going to bust the game wide open like Jamaal Charles.  Steve Breaston's from here, too, but he's also not a game breaker.  The only real weapon they have left on offense is Dwayne Bowe.  Put Ike Taylor on him with Ryan Clark helping out over the top and try to shut him out.  If the Steelers can do that, they'll stifle the Chiefs on offense.

On Monday night, the Chiefs varied formations, mixed in some wild cat, and had everyone shifting or in motion before the snap.  This led to some pre-snap penalties, but it also led to some confusion for the Patriots on defense.  They'll throw all the wrinkles and wacky formations they can think of at you, but it's ultimately just a gimmick and requires consistent execution to be sustainable.

Honestly, after watching them play on Monday night, I feel like an idiot for picking the Chiefs to win any games this year in Pick Em.  They're a bad, bad team.  Barring a special teams touchdown AND a defensive touchdown, I don't see them winning this game, or even keeping it close.  The Steelers are too talented, too motivated, and too well rested to lose this game unless something goes catastrophically wrong.

Prediction:
Steelers 31, Chiefs 10

Weidman's Picks, Week 12

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Better late than never. Sorry, I just drove 7 hours and I'm updating from my tablet in the middle of nowhere and my closest neighbors are horses and a 19th century graveyard...admitted, better than some of my neighbors back home.

Yay! Gained a little ground back last week and had a really good set of picks. Lets see if I can keep it alive and make some good Turkey Day (week) predictions!

Green Bay at Detroit
Not news: Detroit is going to lose on Thanksgiving
News: It's actually going to be a worthwhile game to watch.

Dolphins at Cowboys
Cowboys are at home, they have a turkey with 5000 drumsticks on the sidelines, Miami sucks...the list goes on. Well, no it doesn't. That's really all that matters. Mmmmm...drumsticks.

San Fran at Baltimore
You know what? I'm going to engage in a little wishful thinking here and say that the Niners are going to pick up a road win against the hated Ravens. Why? They've lost to some crappy teams and barely held off some good teams. Granted, the Niners haven't had the toughest schedule, but they're still playing strong.

Buffalo at Jets
They have tied records, and this could be a tough call...could be, but it's not. Jets.

Bears at Raiders
I know I've been all about the Raiders, but this week, I think it's going to go the Bears way.

Browns at Bungles
Important divisional game. I'd really like the Brownies to win it to chip away at the Bungles' record...but, no. The Bungles are really good, water is no longer wet and the sky is no longer blue. We actually have to worry about them down the stretch.

Vikings at Falcons
Until the Vikings get an overhaul on everything down to their jockstraps and choice of mustard at the concession stand, I can't pick them for anything.

Texans at Jags
See above, apply it to the Jags, but with a little less vehemence.

Arizona at Rams
The battle of who can suck less. Rams win by a hair, but only because they're at home.

Bucs at Titans
Again, tough call, so take the home team.

Panthers at Colts
You heard it hear first - this is the week that the Colts cease to be winless. I've been saying they won't get beaten down all season, and I think that this is the game that they finally do it. They're playing a lousy team, they're at home, they're going to be underestimated just because they're ten games in the hole.

Skins at Hawks
Skins are still quite sad and the Hawks can come through big. Take them at home.

Pats at Eagles
Well, the Eagles hate the Pats that's good for morale. They'll be up for this game and have a boisterous home crowd. Unfortunately for them, the Pats don't care. Pats win.

Denver at Chargers
Tough call. The Broncs are arguably better than the Chargers, but they're on the road. On the other hand, the Chargers generally seem to hate me and the Broncs love to prove me wrong...so, I'm calling the Broncos for once, and we'll see how it plays out.

Pittsburgh at Chiefs
Tyler Palko is starting.

Giants at Saints
Both teams are good. Both teams have lost more than they should have. Saints are better and at home. Neither team is my pick for the Super Bowl, but it's still going to be an entertaining match-up this week.

Green Bay over Detroit
Cowboys over Dolphins
San Fran over Baltimore
Jets over Buffalo
Bears over Raiders
Bungles over Browns
Falcons over Vikings
Texans over Jags
Rams over Arizona
Titans over Bucs
Colts over Panthers
Hawks over Skins
Pats over Eagles
Denver over Chargers
Pittsburgh over Chiefs
Saints over Giants

Keller's Picks, Week 12

(Click here to view NFL Pick Em standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

I lost a game on my lead to Weidman last week, so I need to get it right this week.  There's a full slate of games every week from here on out.  This is where the season will be won or lost.

Green Bay at Detroit:
I'm picking the Packers until they lose and I jumped off the Lions bandwagon last week.  I think Rodgers and Green Bay keep rolling.

Miami at Dallas:
The Dolphins are on a roll of late and Matt Moore's QBERT rating has spiked considerably in the past three weeks, but they're still not good enough to beat the Cowboys at Dallas.

San Francisco at Baltimore:
This is a tough one.  Short week for both teams and the 49ers have to travel to the east coast.  But, it's a night game and I have a feeling that San Francisco can out-ugly just about anyone, including the hated Ravens.  I just hope I can watch this game, listen to all the Harbaugh Bowl talk, and not punch someone in the face.  That would make the remainder of my Thanksgiving visit a little uncomfortable.

Buffalo at NY Jets:
I hate to take the Jets, because they're awful.  But, they did manage to beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating has been declining at a geometric rate since Week 6.  Sanchize isn't much better, but he's good enough and he's at home.

Cleveland at Cincinnati:
The Browns are a terrible team, the Bengals are better than anyone thought they could be coming into the season, and they're beyond pissed off after dropping back-to-back games to the Steelers and hated Ravens.  I think they roll.  That line can't get high enough.

Houston at Jacksonville:
I know that Matt Leinart is a pretty crappy quarterback that hasn't had a decent QBERT rating since his last year at Southern Cal.  The trouble is that the Jags couldn't beat Cleveland last week and their run defense leaves a lot to be desired.  I think Leinart pulls a Griese, attempts eight passes, and Ben Tate and Arian Foster get 100 yards each.

Carolina at Indianapolis:
This is a shaky pick, but I jumped off the Panthers bandwagon last week, it worked, and I need to stick with that.  Plus which, Indy is coming off a bye and they're at home.  They can't finish 0-16, can they?  Don't answer that.

Tampa at Tennessee:
I'm not saying the Titans are the 2011 Packers.  This is more a vote of no-confidence in Tampa.  Matt Hasselbeck should start and Tennessee is good enough to actually remember to tackle LeGarrett Blount, which is where the Packers went wrong yesterday.

Minnesota at Atlanta:
Adrian Peterson may not play and the Falcons have a tough run defense.  Also, the Vikings suck.

Arizona at St. Louis:
Two craptastic teams and a lot of questions usually means take the home team.  I can't do that because the Rams are craptastic squared and may not win another game the rest of the season.

Chicago at Oakland:
Sure, this might look like a dumb pick, but consider:

1. The Raiders have only won two games at home.
2. I'm still on the Bears bandwagon.
3. My buddy Keith says that Caleb Hanie is a combination of Football Jesus and Joseph Smith, which is good enough for me.  I think the offense might actually improve with him at the helm.  Then again, I hate Jay Cutler with the burning passion of a thousand dying sons, so my judgement may be clouded.

Washington at Seattle:

Seahawks play well at home and the Redskins are a total mess.  On the field, off the field, in Victorian England, it doesn't matter.  They'd lose to a 19th century soccer team, is what I'm saying.

New England at Philadelphia:

Just when you think the Patriots are dead, they rise from the ashes.  Just when you think the Dream Team is turning things around, they crap the bed.  Don't bet against Tom Brady and don't bet for Michael Vick/Less Emotionally Stable Michael Vick.

Denver at San Diego:

I have been converted to the First Church of Football Jesus.  The Chargers are overrated and Tebow just wins.  They'll find a way to lose this game and he'll find a way to win.  That's what he does, he wins football games.  And Tebows.  And solves the national debt crisis.

Steelers at Kansas City:

More details to follow for the full-on game preview, but anyone who watched the Chiefs on Monday night should not question this pick.

NY Giants at NOLA:

There's a really good chance that a desperate Giants team could pull the upset on the road, but the Saints are at home and they're coming off a bye.  I am not in the business of betting against Sean Payton when he's had two weeks to prepare for an opponent and two weeks to get his entire backfield healthy (start Mark Ingram).

Line of the Week:

Bengals (-9) over Browns.  Like I said, that line can't get big enough.  I think Cincy wins by at least two touchdowns.

Moneyline of the Week:

Denver (+243) over San Diego.  Yeah, Football Jesus!  (I'm totally breaking up with you if you lose this game).

Over/Under of the Week:

Washington at Seattle (37.5, UNDER).  Two bad offenses, two underrated defenses.  When in doubt, always take the under in a Seahawks game.

Green Bay over Detroit

Dallas over Miami

San Francisco over Baltimore

NY Jets over Buffalo

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Houston over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Carolina

Tennessee over Tampa

Atlanta over Minnesota

Arizona over St. Louis

Chicago over Oakland

Seattle over Washington

New England over Philadelphia

Denver over San Diego

Steelers over Kansas City

NOLA over NY Giants

Weidman's Picks, Week 11

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

This is getting to be a habit with the ugly weeks. Last week, Keller and I both bet heavily on upsets - and the upsets came even stronger.  Also, I slipped farther behind in the standings. Thank you for still reading.

Jets at Broncos
I'll start this out with a road team pick. The Broncos are doing better than I'd expect, but the Jets are stomping the important games. Only concern is them pulling a Ravens after beating a hated rival twice this season.

Raiders at Vikings
Another road pick. The Vikings are just awful.

Bills at Miami
Three for three. Nothing more to report here.

Jags at Browns
Even matchup between two lousy teams. When in doubt, take the home team, in this case the Browns. But, if there's going to be an upset this week, this game has a very strong possibility.

Bungles at Ravens
Wow...this is a toughie. It's the absolute opposite of the above in every way. If you'd told me at the beginning of the season that there would be an important game between the Ravens and the Bungles this late in the season, I'd have told you that you were full of crap. And yet...here we are. The Bungles held their own against us last week, but we ran all over them early on. If they give the Ravens that opportunity at home, there's no chance. Baltimore had a big hangover last week and lost ground to us in the standings. This is a division game, and I don't see them doing it again.

Panthers at Lions
I hate to just keep picking the favorites, but again, here we are. The Lions choked majorly last week against the Bears, but they'll bring it back at home this week.

Bucs at Pack
I keep thinking that the Pack has to lose at some point, but every week I look at who they're playing and say, "not this week." Especially not at home.

Dallas at Skins
The Skins may be at home, but they've dropped three in a row, just when the Cowboys are really getting their act together. I see this one being a stomping.

Cards at Niners
Ditto the above, but in the home team's favor and by a lot more.

Seattle at St. Louis
This one is gonna be too close to call for a lot of people. Seattle had a huge win last week, and I hope to see them show the Ravens how you follow that up.

Titans at Falcons
Their records are tied, but the Falcons are the better team and at home.

Chargers at Bears
Bears are favored and at home...but I don't think so. The Chargers are geared for an upset, and I don't think the Bears are going to handle the win last week.

Eagles at Giants
Rivalry games can go any which way, no matter what the record...but the Dream Team never arrived, and the Giants have all the cards.

Chiefs at Pats
I feel kinda bad for the Chiefs. They're gonna get stomped the next two weeks.


Jets over Broncos
Raiders over Vikings
Bills over Miami
Browns over Jags
Ravens over Bungles
Lions over Panthers
Pack over Bucs
Dallas over Skins
Niners over Cards
Seattle over St. Louis
Falcons over Titans
Chargers over Bears
Giants over Eagles
Pats over Chiefs

Keller's Picks, Week 11

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Well, I got crushed again last week, but I called Seahawks over hated Ravens and went 4-2 in swing games.  I am officially on the Bears bandwagon and that large crashing sound you heard was me jumping off the bandwagons of the Lions, Panthers, and Bills.  I thought that would give me three sure-fire wins this week.  Then I discovered that the Panthers play the Lions.  Ah, well.  On with the picks.

NY Jets at Denver:
Don't get me wrong, I'm all about the Football Jesus.  I just don't think he has enough miracles in him to beat an angry and cornered Jets team.  Home field isn't an advantage for the Broncos at this point in the season and I think the Broncos are just bad enough on defense to make the Jets look good.  They looked pretty crappy on Sunday night, so this is no small feat.

Buffalo at Miami:
Yes, I'm aware that I said I was off the Bills bandwagon.  But, they've struggled recently because they've been playing decent-to-good pass defenses and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating plummeted as a result.  The Dolphins pass defense is awful, so he gets back on track this week.

Cincinnati at Baltimore:
This is the second week in a row that the Bengals draw an opponent that lost a craptastic, frustrating game the week before.  This is the second week in a row that the Bengals will lose to that opponent.  But... the line's a little crazy (Baltimore -7), so take Cincy if you're picking on spreads.

Jacksonville at Cleveland:
Honestly, I have no idea.  I really should take the home team, but I'm tired of picking the Browns and then finding out they did something dumb to blow the game.  This one could end in a 0-0 tie, unless there's a defensive touchdown.

Oakland at Minnesota:
The Vikings are favored by one, which confuses the hell out of me.  I know that Run DMC is probably out for this game, but he's been out for a few weeks.  I checked around to see if Minnesota was able to clone Jared Allen and Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, but Google said no.  I also checked to make sure that Carson Palmer was still alive and he is.  I have no idea why a 5-4 team working on 11 days rest would be underdogs to a 2-7 team that got destroyed on Monday Night Football.

Carolina at Detroit:
Stupid bandwagon widows playing each other the week after I jump off.  Seriously, I should be able to take this one off the board.  When in doubt, take the home team.

Tampa at Green Bay:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's a good football player.  Did you know that the gestation period of an elephant is 22 months?  I just wanted to add something else here to make it look like I did my homework.

Dallas at Washington:
Redskins lost by 11 points to Miami last week and the Cowboys destroyed the Bills.  Washington may be the worst team in the league and they decided to go back to Rex Grossman to try to jump start the offense.  Any time that Sexy Rexy is your game changer, you have serious, serious problems.

Arizona at San Francisco:
Steelers West is going to crush me again with another improbable road win this week.  I can feel it.  Still, it would be super dumb to actually pick against the 49ers.

Seattle at St. Louis:
I hate picking the Rams.  I really do.  But, they followed up their upset of the Giants with a 6-3 loss to Cleveland.  I think the "crazy upset then crapping the bed on the road" trend continues.

Tennessee at Atlanta:
Oh, great.  Two of the most schizophrenic teams in the league are playing each other.  Not sure which version of which team is going to show up on either side, but Atlanta's home.  Where they choked big time against the Saints in Week 10.  I hate this game.

San Diego at Chicago:
YEAH!  GO BEARS! WOOOOOOOOOOOO!  *checks to make sure he has a clear path to exit bandwagon*

Philadelphia at NY Giants:
I know Eli and company lost at San Francisco last week, but I think they might be the second best team in the NFC.  The Eagles are... not so much.  They lost at home to Steelers West last week.  That's just embarrassing.  I'm all about betting against the Dream Team at this point.

Kansas City at New England:
Hey, so, never bet against Tom Brady.  The moneyline for this game is KC +720.  I wonder how they feel about that.  Like, are they depressed?  Motivated?  Constipated?  I'll go with the last two, but taking the points might not be a bad idea.

Line of the Week:
I'm all in on the Chicago bandwagon (Chicago -3.5).  I think they win by a touchdown, even if they don't dismantle the Chargers like they did the Lions.

Moneyline of the Week:
Bills (+111) over Dolphins.  That's the "upset" that I'm the most comfortable with.  Both teams are taking on water, but Buffalo has more buckets.

Over/Under of the Week:
Dallas at Washington (41.5, OVER).  I think the Cowboys might score 42 points all by themselves, so this is easy money.

NY Jets over Denver
Buffalo over Miami
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Jacksonville over Cleveland
Oakland over Minnesota
Detroit over Carolina
Green Bay over Tampa
Dallas over Washington
San Francisco over Arizona
St. Louis over Seattle
Atlanta over Tennessee
Chicago over San Diego
NY Giants over Philadelphia
New England over Kansas City

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Bengals

In the interest of full disclosure, I will say that I was only able to catch the last 35 seconds of this game.  I got on a plane in Chicago at 12 p.m. Central time and landed in Austin at 2:55 p.m. Central time, which means I was in the air from kickoff to Victory Formation.

I read the recaps and all the Monday morning stuff, checked out the box score, and it looks like a missed a pretty good game.  I didn't see any of the bad stuff, but looking at it from the outside, I can only think of good news.

1. The Steelers were 3-for-4 in the red zone.  That's huge.  Rashard Mendenhall was also able to punch it in twice from inside the ten, which is good news for the goal-to-go offense.  That's an area where they struggled all season and the Cincinnati defense is not a bunch of pushovers.  Their front seven is a big test for any team and the Steelers passed.
2. Suisham didn't miss any kicks.  Jeff Reed is still available.
3. Holy crap, two turnovers!  I think the defense might be on pace to record ten or maybe even 12 turnovers this season.  Seriously, though, both picks came when the Bengals were trying to come back, so they were both huge.  Well done, William Gay.
4. Andy Dalton had two touchdown passes, but he also threw two interceptions and needed 30 pass attempts (completed only 15) to get to 170 yards.  The only real issue is that the Steelers didn't record any sacks.  I talked to a couple of people who said that they didn't blitz much, so that makes sense.
5. Oh, here's some bad news: Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times and hit another 13 times.  That's pretty ridiculous, especially considering how well the line has been pass blocking lately.  Did Cincinnati blitz a lot and the Steelers didn't max protect and/or keep Heath in to block?  Maybe leave something in the comments and let me know.  I was going to DVR the game, but I don't get back from Austin until late Thursday, so I figured I wouldn't have time to watch it.

Now for the really good news.  Since the hated Ravens lost to Seattle (CALLED IT), the Steelers are in first place in the division.  They have a bye in Week 11 and Baltimore and Cincy play each other.  One of those teams is coming out of that game with four losses and the other will have three losses, which means the winner will be tied with the Steelers for the division lead.  I hope the hated Ravens lose, but I don't think that's going to happen.  If Cincy beats Baltimore, then the Steelers are still in first place because Sunday's win gives them the tiebreaker over the Bengals.

We're ten games into the season and the Steelers are 7-3 with a bye week to get healthy.  That late bye is especially big for them, since they're an old team and it's better for them to rest and recover later in the season.  There's another game with the Bengals looming on the schedule, but there's also two games against the Browns, one against the hapless Rams, and one at Kansas City.  It's a very winnable stretch and the Bengals and hated Ravens have to play each other twice before the end of the year, so I'm liking how the division race is shaking out.

Is it weird that the Monday night game against the 49ers is shaping up to be one of the biggest games of the season (for both teams)?  Yeah, I think it's weird.

Defending the Bungles: Steelers at Bengals Preview

The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-2 on the season and they're in first place in the AFC North.  That was weird to type.  This is a team that people picked to finish anywhere between 1-15 and 4-12 before the season started.  The fact that they're 6-2 and in first place has led a number of people to try to come up with reasons as to why this is possible.  They've been lucky, they haven't played anyone, they're not ready to step up against elite competition.

Well, they don't make the schedule.  They just play the games that are on the schedule.  The one time they played against elite competition, the 49ers needed to rally late to beat them.  Sure, four of their wins are against Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee, but four of the Steelers' wins are against those teams.  Against elite competition, the Steelers are 1-3, with a win against the Patriots, two losses to the hated Ravens, and a loss to Houston.  It could be that it's the Steelers that aren't ready for prime time.

This season has played out in a very similar manner to 2009 for Cincinnati.  They're coming off a bad season. Everyone's talking about Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  Everyone thinks the Steelers -- coming off a Super Bowl appearance -- will roll an overrated Bengals team that isn't ready to win this game.  Well, I've learned something from the 2009 season and certainly won't be underestimating the Bengals like I did then.  Actually, twice.

Cincinnati is a solid, tough team with a solid, tough defense.  They're not explosive on offense, but they're efficient.  Rookie Andy Dalton has been impressive thus far and is 4-1 on the road.  He hasn't gotten rattled when teams have blitzed him and he isn't acting like a rookie quarterback.  Dick LeBeau loves to face rookie quarterbacks and he's got an exceptionally strong track record against them, but I think that Dalton will be able to hold his own on Sunday.

Ordinarily, this would be a much bigger game for the Bengals than the Steelers.  Cincinnati has been, in their eyes, disrespected.  They've heard all the talk that they're overrated, they're lucky, and that they haven't beat anyone.  They know that the best way to quiet all their detractors is to beat the Steelers on Sunday.  They're at home, it's a division game, and they will be very intense and highly motivated.  But, the Steelers suffered an emotional loss to Baltimore on Sunday night and all their guys are angry and determined.  Throw in the fact that there may be more Steeler fans at the game than Bengal fans and that levels the intensity playing field.

This game will come down to who makes the plays they need to make when they need to make them.  When the Steelers get in the red zone, they need to close the deal.  When Cincinnati faces third down, the defense needs to get off the field.  I'm past the point of thinking that the Steelers will suddenly start forcing turnovers.  If they're going to end the season with seven or eight forced turnovers, then they're going to need to get off the field on third down in order to survive.

Dalton is playing beyond his years, so just blitzing the hell out of him isn't going to get the job done.  The Steelers need to get pressure with four guys and vary their coverage schemes in the secondary.  This is not an explosive offense, so the defenders need to play sound fundamental football.  They need to wrap up on tackles, not take bad angles, and always be in position.  This is an efficient offense, but it's a young offense.  If the Steelers force them to plod their way down the field and play a perfect game, then someone somewhere is going to screw up.  It will be a battle of wills and the Steelers can't be the first ones to flinch.

On defense, Cincinnati has a good front seven that gets consistent pressure, but isn't as ferocious or relentless as the front seven for the hated Ravens.  If the pass blocking holds up and the front five play as well as they've played in recent weeks, then Ben Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw.  That's important, because he's going to need to take some shots deep.  Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hal and Nate Clements are both great players and they're accomplished man-to-man defenders.  But, given the talent levels of Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace and the fact that the rules are set up to favor the offense, neither Clements nor Hall can cover their guys one-on-one deep.  The Bengals safeties are a liability.  When this pass defense has gotten beat, it's gotten beat deep.  Roethlisberger's first read needs to be to the deep man and he needs to throw the ball long early and often.  Cincinnati doesn't have the kind of offense that can overcome a big deficit, so a big, early lead will be the best way to take some of the wind out of the sails of the home team and the home crowd.

The Bengals are second in the league in run defense and allow a league best 3.3 yards per carry.  I don't think the Steelers will be able to run on them, but they have to try and they have to run the ball efficiently.  If they're purposefully one-dimensional like they were against the Patriots, then they have a chance to move the ball and score some points.  If Cincinnati completely shuts the run game down and the Steelers abandon the run for the pass, it's going to be a long day for Roethlisberger.  He also probably won't have time in the pocket to wait for the deep receiver to break free.  That's a lethal combination right there, so they need to take steps to ensure it doesn't play out that way.

Point blank, the Steelers are a more talented team than the Bengals.  They have more weapons on offense, more game changers on defense, a better quarterback, and a dangerous returner in Antonio Brown.  But, games are not won and lost on talent alone.  Cincinnati has been winning games because of their patience, their discipline, and their ability to make timely plays.  If they keep the game tight and make more of those plays than the Steelers, they will win this game.

It's going to be a fight.  It's not going to be easy.  It's going to take a tremendous effort from the Steelers in all phases of the game.  I think they're up for the challenge.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Bengals 20

Weidman's Picks, Week 10

(Click here to view current Pick Em Standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

I gained a little ground on Keller last week, but I still took a drubbing. Upsets can ruin anyone's day. Doesn't help also having to deal with the Steelers losing to the hated Ravens this week.

Raiders at Chargers
Although their records are tied, Chargers are really coming alive, the Raiders are sagging a bit and the Chargers are at home. Take San Diego.

Bills at Cowboys
This is my stupid pick of the week. I know that the Cowboys are heavily favored at home, but I just like the Bills better this season. I know they screwed up bad against the Jets last week, but this is a new week. Cowboys are always overrated, and this season they deserve it less than most.

Titans at Carolina
Another one of those cases where I just don't agree with the line - not even the overall pick. Tennessee hasn't been great on the road - but Carolina is just crap this season and they've lost more at home than they've won. I actually think the Titans are going pull an upset this week.

Texans at Bucs
Close call here, and one of those cases where the safe bet is the home team, even if I'm not wild about them. Play it safe with the Bucs.

Jags at Indy
Crap hosting slightly less crap. I dunno...I really, really don't see the Colts going completely winless this season, and this is their best bet so far. I think the line mainly reflects that the Colts are experiencing one of the biggest melt-downs of all time (citation needed) and not the actual game. Indy brings it.

Steelers West at Eagles
Bird fight, and as in nature, and Eagle wins over a Cardinal any day.

Saints at Falcons
This one is too close to easily call. A few weeks ago, I would have had a much easier choice, but the Saints haven't aged well this season and the Falcons are gaining strength. However, by a hair, I'm taking the Saints.

Rams at Browns
Another crap on crap match-up with the home team being slightly better. Take the Brownies.

Skins at Miami
Going by the records, Skins would be the call, but the game is more than records. Miami's at home and hungry to stay ahead of the Colts (terrible teams do that, right?) so I'm gonna take the fish.

Bronos at Chiefs
I still don't have much faith in the horsies, and the Chiefs are at home. It's not gonna be flashy, but I'll take them.

Steelers at Bungles
Last week was a tough loss. A division loss. To the Ravens. This is something the Steelers can't take lying down. We've got a lot of ground to make up to keep a hold on Baltimore, and Pittsburgh knows this. Also, the Steelers are historically good on the road when their backs are up against it.

Ravens at Seahawks
Bird fight, part II. There's really no breaking this one down - Ravens win handily.

Lions at Bears
I'm sold on the Lions and not on the Bears, oh my. They're not the favorites, but I think Detroit's gonna stack up another win.

New York Football Giants at San Fran
The Giants had a great game on the road last week, but I don't think they're gonna do it again...and, dare I say it, San Fran might just be better than the Pats this year.

Pats at Jets
Okay, granted, every time I don't bet on Brady, he wins...but, seriously - if the Jets can beat the Pats in Foxboro, they can beat them at home...but it can go either way. Take the Jets by one of Brady's expensively coiffed hairs.

Vikes at the Pack
I've mentioned it before, but it sucks for everyone involved when a rivalry is totally lopsided, and they don't get much more lopsided than here. The hapless Vikes are on the road against Rogers and his stupid touchdown dance.


Chargers over Raiders
Bills over Cowboys
Titans over Carolina
Bucs over Texans
Indy over Jags
Eagles over Steelers West
Saints over Falcons
Browns over Rams
Miami over Skins
Chiefs over Bronos
Steelers over Bungles
Ravens over Seahawks
Lions over Bears
San Fran over New York Football Giants
Jets over Pats
Pack over Vikes

Keller's Picks, Week 10

(Click here to view current Pick Em Standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

I am going to do something that is either vastly idiotic or incredibly brilliant.  It's probably vastly idiotic, but at least I have reasons to back my idiocy up.  I have been picking mostly favorites thus far and I've gotten crushed the last few weeks because of all the upsets.

I have identified what I believe to be some prime upset candidates and I will back them this week.  I have a nine game lead over Weidman and I've performed well in swing games thus far.  If I can take a high percentage of those games this week -- since he's been taking mostly favorites as well -- I can come that much closer to locking up the title.

If I'm wrong, then I'll know that the NFL has returned to a semi-sane point and I can go back to picking the favorites.  Well, really, if I'm wrong then I'm going back to picking the favorites because that's a higher percentage game.  But, I've thought through several scenarios, analyzed the match-ups, and done some regressions, and I feel as though the upsets I've targeted are as "sure" as they can get.

Oakland at San Diego:
Having said that, I'm not a total moron.  Philip Rivers has returned to a respectable QBERT rating and almost came back to beat the Packers last week.  Oakland will be without Darren McFadden, Carson Palmer has a QBERT rating in the teens, and they lost to freaking Denver last week.

Steelers at Cincinnati:
This is a tough match-up and it should be a close game, but I think the Steelers will pull this one out after a tough loss to the hated Ravens on Sunday night.  It's not that I don't believe in the Bengals.  God help me, I think Andy Dalton is going to be very good and AJ Green scares me.  They have a solid defense and I think they are for real.  It's just that I believe in the Steelers more.

Denver at Kansas City:
This is where I start to come off the rails.  It'll get worse, so just hang in there.  I'm not a huge fan of Football Jesus, but I have to say that he adds a certain air of unpredictability to a game.  With two teams that are difficult to handicap in a game that could go either way, you go with the wild card.  Tebow is that wild card and will end up doing something weird to either win or lose this game.  I'm betting he does something weird that gives the Broncos a W.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis:
The Colts may be an awful, awful team, but the Jags aren't much better.  Indy is at home, they're angry about all the Suck for Luck talk, their coach has come under fire, and they have a bunch of veteran leadership that will help carry them into the bye week with something positive to focus on.  Even given all that, I'm still in doubt.  That means I take the home team.

Houston at Tampa:
I'm still not sold on the Bucs, I think Arian Foster is an unstoppable death machine, and I think Josh Freeman's heroics are behind him.  They'll need a huge performance from Freeman to win this game and I don't think he has it in him.

Buffalo at Dallas:
The Cowboys have been quietly solid the last few weeks.  After years of being labeled as overrated, I think they're happy with just being rated.  I think the Bills started to believe the hype and they came into the Jets game overconfident.  They'll be focused this week, but Dallas has similar personnel to the Jets and I think DeMarcus Ware has a field day on Ryan Fitzpatrick and this spread offense.

Tennessee at Carolina:
Road teams coming off a bye have not done well this year, but home teams have been consistent.  I'm not buying the line, personally (Panthers -3.5), but I think Carolina will win.  I'm on the fence, which means I'm in doubt, which means take the home team.

Washington at Miami:
Lesser of two evils and the home team.  Let's just pretend this game isn't even happening and move on.

NOLA at Atlanta:
I'm not saying that the fact that the Falcons beat the Colts like a rented mule (hey, that actually works!) makes them a great team.  I think that, at home, playing with some confidence, and facing a very shaky defense, the Falcons can make this happen.  The pieces are starting to fall together for Atlanta and I think they're on their way up, while the Saints are on their way down.  Not "out of the playoff picture" down, just not "unstoppable juggernaut like the Packers" up.

Detroit at Chicago:
I'm gonna put two statements that are true but sound absurd back-to-back: The Lions play better at home and the Lions pass rush will be too much for the Bears.  Chicago used a lot of max protect schemes against the Eagles on Monday night and were successful, but Detroit will be able to rush four and drop seven and still get some pressure.  I think that's the difference.

St. Louis at Cleveland:
Last week, I needed a running back.  I picked up Chris Ogbonnaya.  It took me ten minutes to find him because I had a hell of a time trying to figure out how to spell his name (used OB at the start the first few times and probably also used OY).  I found him, picked him up, and he fumbled on his first play from scrimmage.  He's the best option Cleveland has at running back.  I still picked the Browns, because the Rams are that horrible.

Arizona at Philadelphia:
Hugely successful passing attack against hugely sucktastic secondary?  This one could get ugly.

Baltimore at Seattle:
I have not lost my mind.  The last time the hated Ravens won an emotional game over the Steelers, they went on the road and got destroyed by a Titans team that I just picked to lose to Carolina.  The AFC has been a mess this year.  Every week, there's a new "Team to Beat" and every week that team loses.  It's Baltimore's turn this week.

Yes, thank you.  I know this is a dumb idea.  But, if the NFL (especially the AFC) has truly been turned upside down, then this would be the best singular representation of that chaos.  Or something like that.

NY Giants at San Francisco:
I hope there is enough room on the 49ers bandwagon for me.  If not, I can easily jump off.  I don't feel great about this pick, but I'm tired of picking against San Francisco and picking wrong.  The NFC has been much more consistent this year.

New England at NY Jets:
Brady already lost at home last week, so I'm surprised the sun came up on Monday.  But, really, the Pats lose three straight?  The Jets have the right combination of guys to play man on the New England receivers and shut them down.  They're playing well enough on offense to score enough to win.  Right now, the Jets are trending up and the Patriots are trending down.

Minnesota at Green Bay:
But, there's no stopping the trend of Packers victories.  At least this week.  I'll keep picking them until they lose.  If they lose, I'll probably pick them again because Aaron Rodgers has a 100 QBERT rating and he's on my fantasy team (the good one).

Line of the Week:
Giants (+3.5) at 49ers.  Something about this game reeks of a three point victory.  That smell might just be the gash on my arm getting infected.  I cut it when I jumped on the 49ers bandwagon.

Moneyline of the Week:
Detroit (+136) at Chicago.  I picked a lot of upsets this week, but this is the one I'm most confident in.

Over/Under of the Week:
Oakland at San Diego (47.5/UNDER).  Scoring is down across the league the last few weeks (by "down" I mean 43 points per game).  These two teams have struggled at different points on both sides of the ball and they're both turnover machines.  How is it that they score more than the average this week?  I don't see it.

San Diego over Oakland
Steelers over Bengals
Denver over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Houston over Tampa
Dallas over Buffalo
Carolina over Tennessee
Miami over Washington
Atlanta over NOLA
Detroit over Chicago
Cleveland over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Arizona
Seattle over Baltimore
San Francisco over NY Giants
NY Jets over New England
Green Bay over Minnesota

Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs. Hated Ravens

Well, the really good news is that my wife's cousin was in from out of town and we went to the game together.  We had a great time and it was an incredible game... right up until the end there.

The bad news on that front is that, after starting my career undefeated when seeing the Steelers live, I just picked up my sixth loss.  Maybe it's my seventh.  Not sure.  I'm on either a 3-6 or 3-7 run, so maybe I should stop going.  I think that's a good call.

Good news first:

1. James Harrison returned with a vengeance.  Wow, what a game: Eight tackles, three sacks, three tackles for loss, and six quarterback hits.  If he can stay hot, the pass rush is going to be extremely dangerous when Woodley comes back.
2. The Steelers forced a turnover!  Gotta celebrate the small victories.
3. For the third consecutive week, the offensive line looked good.  Rashard Mendenhall averaged four yards a carry -- a good number against Baltimore -- they managed to punch it in inside the five, and Ben Roethlisberger was only sacked once.
4. I know the pass defense had a meltdown in the last drive, but they actually played well.  Joe Flacco did throw for 300 yards, but he needed 47 attempts to do it.  Roethlisberger threw for 30 more yards on ten fewer attempts.  Yes, that last drive was awful.  Yes, the secondary again failed to record an interception.  But, holding an opposing quarterback to 6.4 yards per attempt is a win for the pass defense, even if it didn't translate to a win in the standings.
5. Ray Rice had 86 total yards.  I would accept that as a win.  I was shocked that he only averaged 2.4 yards per attempt and they kept him from breaking a long run.  Stopping Ray Rice and making Flacco beat you is generally a good strategy.  It just didn't work on Sunday night.  The percentages are more in your favor if you make Flacco beat you than if you take your focus away from Rice.  If these teams meet again, the percentages will favor the Steelers if they're able to shut Rice down.
6. I doubt we'll see a collapse like that again the rest of the season.  Maybe they got it out of their systems?

Now for the bad news:

1. Two turnovers.  They need to take care of the ball, especially when they're not forcing turnovers on defense.  Yes, one of those turnovers was when Mike Wallace tried to run the Stanford Play at the end of the game, but that doesn't excuse Roethlisberger's interception.
2. The hated Ravens ran 77 plays and the Steelers only ran 58.  It could be that the defense was worn out after running around so much.  Facing 77 plays against the Colts or Seahawks is different than facing 77 plays against Baltimore.  There's a higher intensity level, the collisions are more violent, and the magnitude of the game puts stress on your body.  If the defense had gotten off the field on third down -- Baltimore was 14-for-21 in that area -- then maybe they would have had more gas in their tanks at the end.
3. Jeff Reed is still available.  One of the issues for the Steelers is that Tomlin doesn't trust Shaun Suisham.  That's why he waited for a delay of game penalty on fourth and six at the hated Ravens 30.  Honestly, I was pretty hammered at the time and thought it was only fourth and two and that the Steelers should go for it.  Or, at third and ten, there should be a two down strategy.  Take what you can get, then go for it on fourth down.  But, the larger issue is that Tomlin doesn't trust Suisham and Kevin Colbert needs to get on the phone and see who else is out there.  Oh, look at that.  Jeff Reed is available.
4. The largest issue, though, is that the Steelers were 1-for-4 in the red zone, with one turnover.  If they go 2-for-4 or 3-for-4, then Flacco's late game heroics turn into him padding his stats at garbage time.
5. Mike Wallace was targeted only six times and Antonio Brown was targeted 11 times.  From where I was sitting, it looked like Wallace broke out deep on a few plays, but Roethlisberger wasn't looking for him.  When you have a weapon like Wallace, you need to use him.  That's me talking as a Steeler fan and not as someone that has Wallace on my fantasy team.

There's more good news than bad for this game because I thought the Steelers played very well.  They just couldn't finish the game out and they couldn't finish when they got inside the 20.  The issues with the offensive and defensive lines appear to be resolved.  They're still not forcing turnovers and they're still turning the ball over too much.  When you don't force turnovers, then turning the ball over once is too many.  They need to put more work in on red zone drills -- both on offense and defense -- so that the offense gets better and the defense gets better.

The silver lining is that they're only a half game back and they've only played two division games thus far.  They have seven games left, with two each against Cincinnati and Cleveland, starting at Cincy next week.  Given that the hated Ravens swept them this season, they're no longer in the driver's seat in the division, but they're at least sitting shotgun.  

God help me, the Bengals are in first place and they will play two tough games against the Steelers in the coming month.  First order of business is to report back to work, try to get better, put Sunday night in the past, and focus on the next game on the schedule.  Maybe Baltimore suffers another letdown after another emotional victory over their bitter rival.  They're at Seattle and the Seahawks play tougher at home.  But, the fact remains that the Steelers can only control what they do, so they need to re-focus and kick the crap out of the Bungles next week.

Let's Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

Heading into Sunday night's game, there is only one thing I know for sure: The Steelers won't get blown out like they did in Week 1.  Other than that, I am not sure about anything.

I don't think it will be a high-scoring affair.  I don't think the Steelers will blow the hated Ravens out and that makes me sad.  I think the Steelers can (and will) win this game, but I don't know that for sure.  There will be no Flacco Jersey bets this year. 

Well, I guess I know two other things for sure: I know that I'm very excited for the game and I know what they need to do to win.  Just like with the Patriots, it's pretty easy to figure out how to beat Baltimore.  The actual execution is the difficult part.

Don't Turn the Ball Over:

This is kind of a general thing, but it was certainly overlooked on opening day.  It's true that the Steelers have turned the ball over 13 times and the hated Ravens have forced 16 turnovers.  But, if you take into account that seven of those turnovers/takeaways came in the first game, the Steelers have only given the ball up six times in seven games and Baltimore has only taken it away nine times in six games.  That's still a big number for the HR, but they had four more takeaways against the Jets, which means five in five games. 

Um... Let's just keep with, "Don't turn the ball over."

Since the Steelers can't seem to force any turnovers this year, they'll need to hang onto the ball to win.  Turning it over once probably means losing the turnover battle and that can't happen.

Contain Ray Rice:

This has the second lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio.  Rice is an elusive, explosive, athletic player that has great vision, catches the ball well, and is tough to bring down.  We saw that first hand in Week 1 and pretty much throughout his career.  Like with Maurice Jones-Drew, there's no real way to completely shut him down; you just need to limit the damage he does.

The defensive line has been much better in terms of gap discipline and attacking the line of scrimmage the last five games, so that's part of the solution.  The fact that LaMarr Woodley and James Farrior probably won't play is a big problem.  If the d-line can get him moving east-to-west, the linebackers -- even if they're not the starters -- should be able to close on him and bring him down.  James Harrison looks like he might return, which means that Lawrence Timmons can move back to the inside.  That's a key factor in containing Rice.  Not containing him as a runner, but making sure he doesn't kill you catching checkdowns from Joe Flacco.

In the past, Rice has still been a big factor in games where the Steelers have bottled him up as a runner.  He's accomplished this by catching a four yard dump-off pass and turning it into a ten yard gain.  The Steelers need to have a spy on Rice at all times.  Troy makes the most sense, but he'll be busy roaming around the secondary and hopefully causing problems for Flacco there.  That means Timmons needs to get back to his Team Assassin ways and focus on murdering Ray Rice.  I think it can be done and I think Timmons (v 2010) would be the man for the job.

Suggs and Ngata:

Here's your lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio.  These two guys have destroyed the Steelers the past few years and were particularly destructive in Week 1.  Yes, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis still make plays, but Suggs and Ngata just seem to straight-up murder them.  I think the pass protection has improved since Max Starks came back and I think Starks is a big upgrade over Jonathan Scott, but there's only so much lipstick you can put on this situation.  Ramon Foster is an upgrade over Legursky and a healthy Kemo will fare better against Ngata than the last time out, but neither guy is in Ngata's class.

Just like with Ray Rice, there's no way to take these guys completely out of the game.  You just need to know where they are, know where they're going, and try like hell to stop them.  If Foster, Pouncey, Kemo, and Starks win more battles than they lose, then the Steelers can win.  If Ngata and Suggs go off like they did in Week 1, well you saw the results.

Pass to Set Up the Run:

This is a good idea for two reasons: It has worked the past few weeks and it lets the Steelers know what they're working with early.  Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball a lot more in the first half the past few weeks -- especially against New England -- and they were able to move the ball and get some open space in the running game.  Historically, open space in the running game has been extremely rare against the hated Ravens, so this strategy is worth a shot.  My thinking is that there won't be a whole lot of things that go well for the Steelers on offense and they may as well find out how poorly things are going to go as early as possible.

If they work Roethlisberger out of the shotgun early, then he'll have more time to get rid of the ball and they'll be able to gauge Baltimore's plan on defense.  If the hated Ravens bring the house, then I think Roethlisberger will shred them, since he's been very effective against the blitz thus far this season.  If they rush four or five guys and get to him almost immediately, then it's time to try something different.  The issue in the first game was that Suggs and Ngata were in Roethlisberger's face as soon as he said "Hut" so Baltimore didn't need to blitz that much.  If they're not successful rushing four or five guys -- meaning Suggs and Ngata are being somewhat contained -- then they'll start sending more guys and then they're screwed.

So...

I think it's possible that the Steelers can accomplish all these things, but I don't know how likely it is.  I would love to see a blow out -- I hate the hated Ravens, I'm playing a guy this week who has Rice, Flacco, and Baltimore's defense, I hate the hated Ravens -- but who would be stupid enough to predict something like that?

I think it's close.  I think the Steelers win more of these battles than they lose.  I think, in the end, Roethlisberger makes all the difference.

Prediction:
Steelers 17, Hated Ravens 13

Weidman's Picks, Week 9

Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Half-way through the season and 10 games behind Keller. Not the end of the world, but I need to step up my game. Or, you know, just not fall farther behind. Something like that.

Jets at Buffalo
Yuck. I've gotta start this out on an unsure foot. There's only a 1 point line on this game and (note that I still hate this phrase) the Jets are better than their record. However, I still think the Bills are going to make some noise in the post-season and they're at home.

Browns at Texans
Wow. I think the line on this game is way out of whack, but I don't think the result is wrong. Texans win this one.

Miami at Chiefs
Are the Dolphins going to go 0-8? Is that still possible in the NFL? Yes it is. (Yes, Indy - I see your hand up over there. Just put your head down and take a nap. Everyone is trying to pretend you aren't playing this year.)

Seattle at Dallas
Okay, Vegas - once again, I question your hatred of certain teams. Also, once again, I'm not going to disagree with the bottom line. Dallas is a shell of their normal selves, but the Seahawks were bad to start with and now they have key injuries on the road.

Niners at Redskins
Finally - a road team I can back. Niners are strong, the Skins are weak and fading. Take the Niners.

Bucs at Saints
Normally, this would be an easy pick. This week? F*(% no. The Saints lost to the Rams last week. The winless Rams. I mean, they're still gonna win this week, but it's not a slam dunk. 5-3 and a loss to the Rams suddenly makes the Saints look a lot more vulnerable.

Atlanta at Indy
Hey, Indy - wake up for a second. You suck. Now go back to sleep.

Denver at Oakland
Broncos have the consolation that they're not the worst team in the league, but that's about all I can say about them. Oakland is still strong(ish) and they don't give a flying fish if Palmer has TJ Hoosyourmama back on his team.

Bungles at Titans
Here's an underdog pick for yinz guys. Titans are favored, but the Bungles are....please don't make me say it. *sigh* Okay: the Bungles are the better team, and better by more than the one-game advantage they currently have.

NY Football Giants at Pats
Look, I'm thrilled that we stomped the crap out of Pretty Boy last week, but I'm going to return to form and remind everyone that betting against Brady is stupid in regular situations, and super stupid when he's at home. Now, the Giants are a good team and they'll put up a fight - there's history there, so it's going to be close. This one will be fun.

Pack at Chargers
Until they lose, I won't even consider picking against Rogers.

Rams at Steelers West
Both teams are looking bad this year, but I think last week was a fluke for the Rams. Also, the Cards have a bad record but decent play. Take them at home.

Bears at Eagles
Eagles still aren't the team advertised, but they're at home and it's Monday night. I think they're going to take this one.

Ravens at Steelers
Saved the best for last. I really just can't even contain myself on this one. The Ravens are streaky, the Steelers are getting stronger. Suggs is talking shit. Now, they actually had to have a huge come-from-behind victory last week against the Cards - that's not something they should have needed to do. Even so, they are not the team that kicked us all over the field in week one. A lot of people are writing them off, but that's dangerous. Think about if the Steelers had performed like Baltimore this season. Right now, their chests would be pumped out, Hines would be saying that no one says we can win, Keis would be calmly saying that we're a team on the rise and Tomlin would explain it's a process.

But none of that matters. Every game against the Ravens is a fresh start. Nothing else in the entire league or season matters to either team. It's knock-down, drag-out, eat-your-opponent's-heart-through-their-smashed-mouth football...and this week it's the Sunday night game.

(Sorry, Sally - but your birds are losing this week.)

Buffalo over Jets
Texans over Browns
Chiefs over Miami
Dallas over Seattle
Niners over Redskins
Saints over Bucs
Atlanta over Indy
Oakland over Denver
Bungles over Titans
Pats over NY Football Giants
Pack over Chargers
Steelers West over Rams
Eagles over Bears
Steelers over Ravens

Keller's Picks, Week 9

Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Last week wasn't fantastic, but I managed to go 1-1 in swing games and maintain my lead over Weidman.  I have not, however, had much luck with the Over/Under of the Week or Line of the Week.  So... maybe don't bet heavy on those and just stick to the Moneyline of the Week, which has been fairly consistent.

I need a big week this week so that I can (hopefully) pull away from the competition.

Atlanta at Indianapolis:

Law of averages says that the Colts should win eventually, but I don't see it happening this week.  The bummer part is that Indy doesn't play Miami this season, so we're going to miss out on the Andrew Luck Bowl.

Tampa at NOLA:

The Saints are angry after losing to the Rams last week, Tampa is overrated, and the fact that the Bucs are coming off a bye doesn't really scare me.  The fact that Tampa beat NOLA earlier this year doesn't scare me.  Drew Brees and that offense playing with something to prove scares me.

Cleveland at Houston:

The Texans seem to understand that they just need to keep it together, win the winnable games, and survive the season without choking.  The Browns don't seem to understand that you need to score points to win games.  I'd take the points on this one (Browns +10.5), but it's not my line of the week.  I think Cleveland hangs in there and the Texans slowly put them away.

NY Jets at Buffalo:

I can't say that I'm really sold on the Bills, but I'll also say that I'm not sold on the Jets.  If it was just a matter of quarterbacks-versus-pass-defenses, then I'd take the Jets.  But, the Jets haven't shown that they can run the ball effectively, the Bills have shown that they can, and the New York run defense is pretty suspect.

Miami at Kansas City:

KC has come back in a big way and they're also catching some breaks (like they did in overtime on Monday night).  They're at home and the Dolphins are the second worst team in the league.

San Francisco at Washington:

Hello, worst team in the league!  Yes, the 3-4 Redskins are worse than the 0-7 Dolphins and the 0-7 Colts.  They're a mess on both sides of the ball.  I'm super glad that I divested my fantasy team of all Redskins in Week 3.

Seattle at Dallas:

My faith in Dallas is waning, but I have zero faith in the Seahawks without Tavaris Jackson.  Charlie Whitehurst has a negative QBERT rating and Pete Carroll is finally starting to show why he should've stayed in school.

Denver at Oakland:

Carson Palmer has been re-united with TJ Houshmanzadeh.  Championship!  But seriously, folks.  Football Jesus isn't going to be able to miracle his way out of this one, either.

Cincinnati at Tennessee:

I'm sick of picking against the Bengals.  If I had picked them every week this year, I think I'd be like 95 games over .500.  Also, their defense is scary good, this Andy Dalton kid isn't half bad, and the Titans are starting to fall apart.  At least they managed to beat the hated Ravens before they realized they suck.

St. Louis at Arizona:
In a classic, "When in doubt, pick the home team" situation, I'm going with the road team.  Vegas isn't touching it and the lines that actually exist show Steelers West by 3.  The Rams showed me more on Sunday than the Cardinals did.  I think Sam Bradford comes back, Steven Jackson has a big day, and Kevin Kolb doesn't finish the game (which leaves some dude named Skeleton, I think).

NY Giants at New England:

Tom Brady has won, like, 815 consecutive (regular season) games at home, they just came off a tough loss, and I think Justin Bieber was a toddler the last time the Patriots lost two in a row.  I know it's a re-match of Super Bowl XLII and the Giants won that game (18-1!  18-1!  18-1!), but don't get cute.

Green Bay at San Diego:

Something about an undefeated team traveling multiple time zones after a bye to face a cornered team on the road makes me nervous.  Then I remember that the Chargers are overrated and Aaron Rodgers is really, really good.  Nervousness gone.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh:

Can't see the hated Ravens sweeping the (regular season) series.  I think they're different teams than they were in Week 1.  I don't think one team blows out the other.  It will be a close game.  In that situation, I trust the home team and the quarterback with two rings.

Chicago at Philadelphia:

I'm not buying into the fact that the Dream Team is finally coming together and that they will cut a path of destruction through the rest of the league, but I will definitely take Mike Vick at home in prime time.  Also, don't get cute.  Also also, when in doubt, trust the home team.

Line of the Week:

49ers (-3.5) at Washington.  The Redskins are awful, the 49ers are not, the 9ers are 3-0 in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast this season, and the Redskins are AWFUL.  Did I mention that the Redskins are awful?

Moneyline of the Week:

Cincy (+127) at Tennessee.  It's time to believe in the Bengals.  Or, at least, it's time to take advantage of the fact that Vegas still doesn't believe in them.

Over/Under of the Week:
Jets at Bills (44, OVER).  Something tells me this turns into a shootout, which means you should take the Under.

Atlanta over Indy
NOLA over Tampa
Houston over Cleveland
Buffalo over NY Jets
Kansas City over Miami
San Francisco over Washington
Dallas over Seattle 
Oakland over Denver
Cincinnati over Tennessee 
St. Louis over Arizona
New England over NY Giants
Green Bay over San Diego
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Philly over Chicago 

Good News and Bad News: Patriots at Steelers

As I always say: Every time I pick the Steelers to lose, I hope and pray that I'm wrong.  That means I'm glad I was wrong about this game.  Sunday's game was a pretty impressive display by the home team, with more good news than bad.

Good news first:

1. The big story lines on Monday morning were about how Ben Roethlisberger outdueled Tom Brady, but I think the biggest story from this game was how well the secondary played.  Ike Taylor was already having a big year, but supporting guys like William Gay, Cortez Allen, and Keenan Lewis really picked up their games.  I was surprised (and relieved) to see how well they all played in man coverage.  In general, the Zone Blitz scheme involves more blitzing and zone schemes -- hence the name -- but it was refreshing to see the Steelers take a break from what usually works for them and actually try something that had a good chance of working against the offense they matched up against.  Everyone in the defensive backfield kept the intensity up all game, didn't give up a big play, and tackled well.
2. I was talking to someone yesterday and they mentioned that the pass rush has been much improved since Brett Keisel came back.  I agree with that, but I also think LaMarr Woodley had a little something to do with the resurgence.  I think Casey Hampton is playing himself back into game shape and Ziggy Hood/Cameron Heyward keep improving game by game.  This is still a unit that has an age problem, but they're starting to silence some of the critics that said they were too old and too slow after the opener against the hated Ravens.
3. Again, I must be desensitized to pressure on Roethlisberger, because I was surprised to find out that the Patriots sacked him five times on Sunday and recorded four quarterback hits in addition to the sacks.  I thought the offensive line continued to play well and improve.  I thought they looked especially sharp in pass protection.  If they can field the same starting five for the third week in a row in Week 9 against Baltimore, they can really start to build something good.  I'm not going to say "special" or "great," because I don't think this group has that much upside.  I would be more than satisfied with "good" at this point, especially considering how poorly they've played in stretches over the past few seasons.
4. New England converted 30 percent of their first downs (3 of 10) and the Steelers converted 62.5 percent of theirs (10 of 16).  That's a huge swing.
5. Time of possession was also a huge factor, with the Steelers winning that battle 39:22-20:38.  They did that by dropping back to pass on 55 of 78 plays, which proves that they can be just as efficient throwing the ball and playing keepaway now as they were running the ball and playing keepaway during the Cowher Era.  They ended up with only 98 yards rushing, but they also averaged 4.3 yards per attempt, so I'm fine with that.  I don't think that they need to pile up a bunch of yards, they just need to be efficient when they run the ball.

Bad news is mostly injury-related:

1. It looks like Lawrence Timmons -- who still doesn't have a sack this year -- could be the only healthy starting linebacker against the hated Ravens.  Woodley has a hamstring issue, James Harrison is recovering from eye surgery (really can't rush back from something like that), and James Farrior could be out until December with a calf injury.  Marcus Gilbert got hurt again.  It seems to be something slightly different every game, but he also comes out every game.  I think the Steelers should just rest him a week or so and make sure he's completely healthy.  He's a young player that wants to impress the other guys on the roster, so he may be overstating how good he's feeling week to week.
2. If I were a Patriots fan, I'd be thinking that my team got pretty well dominated in all phases of the game, but still only lost by eight.  That would be the good news for New England and part of the bad news for the Steelers.  This is their third dominant performance of the season: Tennessee and Arizona were the other two -- but it's the first time where they pushed the other team around and weren't comfortably in the lead in the fourth quarter.
3. The Steelers didn't blow the Patriots out because they were 2-for-5 in the red zone and didn't force any turnovers.  It's true that they're turning the ball over a lot less on offense, but they're still not forcing any turnovers on defense.  At the half way point in the season, they've forced a total of three turnovers and they've converted only half of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns.  That needs to improve if they're going to actually be the favorite in the AFC, as opposed to the chic pick of the week in the AFC.
4. Shaun Suisham missed another field goal, giving him five misses in 18 attempts.  Those five missed field goals are the most in the NFL.  His 72.2 percent conversion rate is 30th in the league.  I know Heinz Field is a tough place to kick, but there seem to be a number of younger, better guys lying on the scrap heap right now.  Jeff Reed is also available.  If nothing else, the Steelers should bring a few guys in to have a look at them.  Kickers have been getting more and more accurate -- and from longer distances -- over the years, but Suisham has not kept pace.  The Steelers need to find someone who can keep pace.  Jeff Reed is also available.

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about the fact that I was wrong and that the Steelers won.  I was overjoyed and fairly drunk on Sunday.  The problem is that I don't think they're the team to beat at this point.

Yes, they're leading their division.  Yes, they just beat the Patriots and hold an important tiebreaker for playoff seeding.  Yes, they have a solid defense and an outstanding quarterback.  Yes, the AFC is down this year due to the fact that Peyton Manning has not played and no one seems to want to win the AFC West.

There's still the red zone issue.  There's still the turnovers issue.  There's still a shaky kicker and an offensive line that is being held together by duct tape.  There's the fact that their depth has been tested a bunch already and we're only eight games into the season.  Injuries tend to pile up towards the end of the year and there are limits to every team's depth.  They can't withstand more injuries to the offensive line, defensive line, or linebackers. 

Homefield advantage is nice, but history -- especially Steeler history -- has proven that it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl.  They're one of the best teams in AFC, but I don't think they're the team to beat just yet.

They still need to beat the hated Ravens on Sunday night.  Wins against the Chiefs and 49ers would help.  They can't choke against the Bengals or Browns.  But, I guess you can still call them the team to beat this week if you really, really want to.