Everything's Bigger in Texas: Steelers at Texans Preview

Well, so, since the cat is already out of the bag and Weidman and I both picked Houston in this week's Pick Em, I'm going to talk about why I think the Texans will win, then about what the Steelers would need to do to pull off an upset.

The reason I think Houston will win is that they don't need to do anything special to dispatch the Steelers and move to 3-1.  In order to win, they need to run a balanced offense and play well enough on defense.  They've been able to do both those things thus far this season, aside from their total collapse in the fourth quarter against the Saints in Week 3.  They have almost a 50/50 run/pass ratio, they're averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and they've held opposing quarterbacks to an 82.1 rating.  Now, that's not a great track record on defense, but it's good enough.  Also consider the fact that they playing against Drew Brees last week and Brees had three touchdown passes in the final quarter alone.

Texans coach Gary Kubiak knows that his team has an exceptional record when they run the ball 30 times or more in a game.  Even if Arian Foster still isn't at 100%, Ben Tate should be a more than sufficient substitute, especially if the Steeler run defense can't get their act together.  There was once a time, way back in 2010, when you couldn't run on the Steelers at all, so you didn't even try.  You'd take your chances passing the ball every down and hope that you had the talent to light them up and blockers capable enough to keep pass rushers at bay.  This season, teams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the Steelers.  If Houston runs the ball 30 times at 4.6 yards per attempt, that's 138 yards rushing, which will be more than enough to keep the pass defense off balance.

There are two ways to stop a strong pass rush: Run the ball effectively and Block well.  There are other, more subtle ways, but those are the most sure-fire ways to keep your quarterback upright.  The Texans can do both.   Matt Schaub has shown himself to be more than capable.  He's playing at home and Houston is looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Saints (just the way the game played out, New Orleans is a good team and there's no real shame in losing to them).

Since they know that they will be able to run the ball effectively, they'll certainly come out and try to run it.  Once they start running the ball well and get the Steeler defense back-pedaling, they'll start to throw the ball.  They'll have success with that, because their offense will be balanced and the Steelers will be off balance.  It will play out much as it did against the hated Ravens, but I don't think the game will get that ugly, primarily because I don't think the Texans will force seven turnovers.

I think the Texans will use a balanced offense to build a comfortable lead and that will be enough of a cushion so that they continue to just play well enough on defense.  I just don't think the Steelers have enough on offense to keep up with Houston and they aren't good enough on defense to stop the Texans if they're running the ball well and have that 50/50 ratio working for them.

But, if they can stop Houston from running all over them, then they have a shot.  In my opinion, the Texans aren't as loaded in the passing game as everyone seems to think they are.  Schaub is a great quarterback, Foster is a very skilled receiver out of the backfield, Andre Johnson is outstanding, and Owen Daniels is one of the better tight ends in the league.  Yes, that's a lot of talent and a lot of weapons, but that's pretty much where it stops.  Their other receivers -- most notably Kevin Walter, who has gone from, "one of the best #2 receivers in the league," to, "that guy Schaub throws to when the other team triple covers Andre Johnson" -- aren't that great.  On top of that, Schaub only completes 56 percent of his passes when the opposing team rushes five or more guys.  So, stop the run, blitz the hell out of Schaub, hope for a turnover.

On offense, the Steelers need to run the ball effectively.  That doesn't mean they need to run the ball a lot.  I'm not looking for Ike Redman and Rashard Mendenhall to get 20 carries each.  They just need to do about a yard or a yard and a half better than they the 3.3 yards per carry they've been averaging thus far this season.  Since the "Block Well" option probably isn't going to happen, they need to run the ball to keep the pass rush honest.  Houston doesn't have a spectacular pass rush -- and they certainly don't have a couple of flying murderballs like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- but they're plenty good enough to sack Ben Roethlisberger if they're allowed to pin their ears back and come running as soon as he says "hut."  The offensive line is going to feature two new starters, with Trai Essex in at left tackle and Ramon Foster in at right guard, so they'll need to create that half second of hesitation in the pass rush to have any prayer of protecting Roethlisberger.

The ultimate winning strategy is to keep the game close in the fourth quarter, since the Texans are known choke artists and this is one of the bigger games in the franchise's history.  For the Steelers, it's just Game 4 on their 2011 schedule.  If Houston doesn't come out and blow the Steelers off the field in the first half and the game stays close late, then the chests of the Texans players will start to tighten.  Even at that point, the Steelers will need to make the necessary clutch plays to win the game.

All this means that there is an extremely slim chance that the Steelers get out of Texas with a win.

Prediction:
Texans 30, Steelers 20

Weidman's Picks, Week 4

Here we go for week 4. This is an important week, as I gained some ground on Keller last week after my disastrous week two. Teams are shaping up, and we're beginning to see where things are going.

Buffalo at the Bungles
Well, Buffalo made a chump out of my rule of not betting against Brady last week. I still stand by that, as more often than not, he's gonna win - but the Bills are looking really good this year. This one's an easy pick: Buffalo's got this one.

Titans at the Browns
Both teams are on equal footing, wins-wise, with one loss a piece. However, the Browns haven't played against very good teams. On the other hand, the Titans lost to the Jags, who aren't looking so great. Cleveland's got a slight edge, but I think this one's going to the Titans.

Pittsburgh at Houston
This one pains me, but I think Houston's gonna win this one. Generally, the Steelers are road warriors, but after getting shellacked by the Ravens in week one and barely getting out of Indy alive last week, we're looking ragged. Houston, on the other hand, has only lost to the Saints, and they totally dismantled Indy (it was their first game sans Manning, but still.)

Detroit at Dallas
Detroit is undefeated right now, but I don't see them starting the season 4-0. They're due for a loss, and Dallas is no slouch this season - plus they're at home.

Niners at Philly
Vick's hurting, Philly's floundering and the Niners are...not bad, somehow. On the other hand, Philly is so heavily favored and Vick's most likely playing...so Philly it is.

Carolina at Chicago
*sigh* I dunno. Both these teams have been getting pounded on this season, and neither one looks very good. Bears are favored, but their losses have looked worse. They're also at home. This is my hardest and riskiest (read: dumb) pick of the week, but I'm going Carolina.

Redskins at Rams
The hapless Rams are due for a win, and "Sexy Rexy" coming to town might be it. I mean, it's gonna be close, but I think they'll do it. Interesting note: "Sexy Rexy" will always make me think of Rex Manning, and there is no way that Grossman can even anecdotally be compared to any manning. Even Cooper.

Saints at Jacksonville
Saints. That's it.

Vikings at Chiefs
Keller and I have a saying about matches like this. It's like two lepers comparing...um...equipment. Whomever wins, it isn't saying much. So, instead of a coin flip, I'll pick...let's see...how about 'whichever one is courting Max Starks'? Yeah. That's the ticket.

The New York Football Giants at the Cards
Tight line on this one, and the Giants are on the road...however, I have slightly more faith in them than Steelers West.

Falcons at Seahawks
Bird fight. The Falcons are trying to prove that they're better than their record, and the Seahawks are just trying to prove that they don't suck. Falcons by a feather.

Broncos at the Pack
Do I need to reference the Simpsons again? Do I need to mention the fact that the Pack is really, really good? How about the fact that they're playing at home with some of the only fans as nuts as ours? No? In that case, I just wrote a paragraph of nothing.

Pats at Oakland
Never...bet...against... You know what? I'm going to make the risky pick here and bet against Brady. Oakland's looking really good this season, and the only team they lost to also beat New England. I think Oakland's going to pull the upset.

Miami at San Diego
Meh. The Dolphins are playing like the Dolphins. The Chargers are still the Chargers.

Jets at the Ravens
Whoa, mama. This is gonna be a good one. It's gonna get ugly, too. I hate to pick the Ravens, but they're a great team. So is NY, but not as great.

Colts at Bucs
The Colts still can't find their bearings, even after almost getting the better of us last week. I don't think they're going to pull it off this week, either.


Buffalo over Bungles
Titans over Browns
Houston over Pittsburgh
Dallas over Detroit
Philly over Niners
Carolina over Chicago
Rams over Redskins
Saints over Jacksonville
Vikings over Chiefs
Giants over Cards
Falcons over Seahawks
Pack over Broncos
Oakland over Pats
San Diego over Miami
Ravens over Jets
Bucs over Colts

Keller's Picks, Week 4

Check out the Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

This is a critical week for me, because I'm reaching a decision point on two teams: The Washington Redskins and the Atlanta Falcons.  I'm trying to figure out of the Skins are real and I'm trying to figure out if the Falcons are not for real.  I no longer doubt the Bills, since they proved themselves against the Patriots last week.

That doesn't mean I'm going to pick the teams that are for real every week and pick against the teams that I think aren't for real every week.  There are levels of realness and deep calculations that go into the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) rating and they are proprietary.  If I released all my secrets, then you wouldn't have to come here every week and see my picks.

Also, we have a few new items in my Pick Em: Line of the Week, Moneyline of the Week, and Over/Under of the Week.  I added those in last week and didn't say anything about them, but now we have a sponsor in My Bookie.  Play the game on Facebook here.  I will be playing the character Mac Winswell.  And, to answer your question: Yes, I am that good looking in real life.  I can also raise one eyebrow and I occasionally wear glasses, so there you go.  We're practically twins, Mac and me.

On to the picks...

Detroit at Dallas:

I think that the Lions are a good team and that they have an excellent chance to make the playoffs.  I also think that Dallas is a sneaky-good team and they're playing at home.  Jared Allen almost won the game for the Vikings last week, but the Vikings don't have an offense.  DeMarcus Ware could take over this game in similar fashion and the Cowboys do have an offense.  I trust Tony Romo as long as it isn't January.

New Orleans at Jacksonville:

Drew Brees has a QBERT rating of 87.  Blaine Gabbert has a QBERT rating of 7.  Moving on.

San Francisco at Philadelphia:

You could almost say that the 49ers would lose this game because they're a West Coast team playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast.  However, they beat the Bengals in that scenario last week, then organized accommodations near Philly for this week so that they didn't have to go cross country as many times.  That being said, Frank Gore may not play and Mike Vick definitely will.  The Eagles are favored by nine points and they're angry and back into a corner.

Washington at St. Louis:

I'm starting to trust Rex Grossman.  I refuse to trust the Rams offense until Steven Jackson proves that he's 100%.  He could prove that this week while he's sitting on my bench in my one fantasy league.  The Redskins can either prove they're for real or prove that they got lucky in three close games to open the season, winning two.

Tennessee at Cleveland:

The Browns pass defense is shaky and it looks like Matt Hasselbeck may have to carry this team.  No Kenny Britt hurts, but they appear to have thrown the ball just fine against the Broncos last week.  The issue with the Titans is the running game.  If Chris Johnson doesn't get going soon, Hasselbeck's back will get tired and everyone will fall off.  Still... this is Cleveland, who had to struggle to put away a bad Dolphins team last week (where they were also at home).

Buffalo at Cincinnati:

The line on this game is Buffalo by 3, which makes me think that Vegas hasn't been watching much football thus far this year.  I understand that, yes, this game has the biggest letdown potential of any game in the last 15 years.  But... Andy Dalton is a horrible, horrible quarterback and Cincy will probably struggle to score 17 points, even against a pretty shoddy Bills defense.  What are the odds that Buffalo can't put up 20 points, even if they show up totally flat?  I say they're not good and the Bills win and cover.

Minnesota at Kansas City:

Trying to pick the winner here is like trying to pick the winner in a three-legged dog race.  The law of averages says that one of these teams has to win eventually and I guess the smart money is on the Chiefs going 0-16 this season instead of the Vikings, but the Chiefs play better at Arrowhead and Minnesota sucks something awful.  When in doubt, trust the home team.

Carolina at Chicago:

I hate Jay Cutler's face, but I can't get past the fact that the Panthers don't have a good enough pass rush to really wear him down.  Cam Netwon also looked pretty human against the craptastic Jaguars last week.  Bears are at home, coming off a disappointing division loss to the rival Packers.  I think they pull it together for this one, but I don't think they'll run away with it.

Steelers at Houston:

Hate to say it, but I think that's what will happen.  That line (Houston by 4) is tricky, though.  If they win 28-24 or 21-17, it's a push.  I think those are the two most likely score pairings in this game, so bettor beware.

Atlanta at Seattle:

Seahawks play tough at home, they gutted out a tough win against Steelers West last week, and their defense does not suck.  The Falcons offense may very well suck, which would doom this team.  If they're able to hang a 28-spot on Seattle this weekend, then I'll start believing in them again.  I'm thinking they at least win this game, though, so that's why I'm taking the 'Hawks.

NY Giants at Arizona:

I went back and forth on this one until I realized two things: Kevin Kolb knows that he needs to do something to impress the coaches and prove that he's worth what the Cardinals gave up to get him and this game has a huge amount of letdown potential for the Giants.  They just had a big win over a division rival, they're on the road, and they've favored.  I think they come in overconfident, Arizona jumps out to a big early lead, and time runs out before Eli and company can recover.  Also, I don't trust Eli Manning on the road.

Miami at San Diego:

I don't think the Dolphins stand a chance in this one and the line seems just about right, but the Chargers were heavy favorites at home last week and barely snuck by KC.  I wouldn't say I'm confident enough in the Chargers to believe they'll for sure cover, but I'm definitely confident enough to say that they'll for sure win.

Denver at Green Bay:

This is my Survivor Pool pick this week.  I almost picked this as the Line of the Week.  I think the Packers win by at least two touchdowns.

New England at Oakland:

I am starting to believe in the Raiders and I think they have a good, young team that will do well this season, provided that Jason Campbell doesn't completely implode and/or get hurt.  I cannot bet against the Patriots in this situation.  I think that they're really, really, really mad about last week's loss and I think they will take it out on Oakland, a young team with a bunch of guys that are prematurely starting to believe their press clippings.  I think that God will want to teach them some humility.  Since Al Davis must have some kind of deal with Satan (only explanation for his longevity), that means God hates the Raiders.

NY Jets at Baltimore:

This should be a great, low-scoring game, which probably means that it will be a great, high-scoring game.  That's why I fear the Under in this one.  I also think that the hated Ravens will not cover.  The Jets talk a big game, but they're more of a December/January team.  I just don't think they're ready to win this game yet.  Plus which, Ray Rice is better than Shonn Greene, Joe Flacco is better than Mark Sanchez, and the defenses are pretty much a wash.  The game is in Baltimore.  Too many things going in favor of the hated Ravens.

Indianapolis at Tampa:

I'm not sold on Tampa, but they have enough Josh Freeman mojo to win this game.  The Colts are on the road and are probably banged up and exhausted from their tight game against the Steelers last week.  Tampa is at home and Curtis Painter has a QBERT rating of 3.6.  Having said all that, it's a big line (Tampa by 10) and it'll be tough for this offense to cover a spread like that against a rejuvenated Indy defense.

Line of the Week:

Take Buffalo.I don't think there's a chance in hell they don't cover.  I think there's at least some chance that Tampa covers with a defensive touchdown or if the wheels start to come off and the defense gives up in the fourth quarter, so I don't feel as comfortable taking Indy against the spread.  The Bills could have a low scoring output (for them) and still beat Cincy by a touchdown.

Moneyline of the Week:

Titans over Browns.  It's even money and I think Tennessee is a mortal lock to win.  Arizona's odds (+104) aren't attractive enough to take the chance that an NFC West team can beat someone that's not in their division.

Over/Under of the Week:

Redskins at Rams: Take the Under.  These are two surprisingly good defenses and two offenses that are still under construction.  I wouldn't take the Under if the O/U was 35, but I can definitely see another 18-16 slug fest like we saw on Monday Night Football.

Dallas over Detroit
NOLA over Jacksonville
Philly over San Francisco
Washington over St. Louis
Tennessee over Cleveland
Buffalo over Cincinnati
KC over Minnesota
Chicago over Carolina
Houston over Steelers
Atlanta over Seattle
Arizona over NY Giants
San Diego over Miami
Green Bay over Denver
New England over Oakland
Baltimore over NY Jets
Tampa over Indianapolis

2011 NFL Pick Em Standings

Here's where we stand in the Pick Em Competition, week-by-week and YTD:

Keller: 159-81 YTD
Week 1: No picks, because we didn't think of it.
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 12-4
Week 5: 9-4
Week 6: 8-5
Week 7: 8-5
Week 8: 9-4 
Week 9: 7-7
Week 10: 8-8
Week 11: 9-5
Week 12: 12-4
Week 13: 12-4
Week 14: 13-3
Week 15: 8-8
Week 16: 9-7 
Week 17: 13-3

Weidman: 141-99 YTD
Week 1: No picks, because we didn't think of it.
Week 2: 6-10
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 9-4
Week 6: 9-4
Week 7: 5-8
Week 8: 9-4
Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 6-10
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 10-6
Week 14: 12-4
Week 15: 6-10
Week 16: 10-6
Week 17: 10-6

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Colts

Good news first:

1. By my math, the Steelers should've gotten half a win for Sunday night's performance, a full win for shutting out the Seahawks, and two losses for getting crushed by the hated Ravens on opening day.  That would make them 1.5-2 on the season, but, according to the way the NFL cooks the books, they're 2-1 and tied for first place.  That's good news.
2. Aside from that massive brain fart against Pierre Garcon, Ike Taylor played another excellent game.  William Gay looked solid, too.  Here's hoping he keeps the starting job opposite Taylor.
3. Troy Polamalu is on the Steelers payroll.  This is good news.
4. Marcus Gilbert was able to come back in the fourth quarter, which means that the Steelers, having only dressed seven offensive linemen, didn't need to line up a tight end or defensive end at left tackle.  If that had happened, I think Dwight Freeney would have decapitated Ben Roethlisberger.
5. Since I waited until Tuesday to post this, we had enough time for Mike Tomlin to announce that Legursky and Scott are not headed to injured reserve.  Scott's wearing a boot and Legursky is listed as Questionable for the Texans game.  Gilbert is supposed to be OK to play on Sunday.  When I saw all the injuries on Sunday night, I was really thinking that Scott and Legursky were headed to IR.
6. I... uh... I mentioned that they won, right?

Surprisingly small amount of bad news.

1. The Steelers were out-rushed by a significant margin on Sunday night.  Indianapolis is not a good running team, the Steelers were playing run-first on defense because Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter were in at quarterback, and the Colts also have a bad run defense.
2. Worse news is that they've been out-rushed on the season, 298-296.  Those numbers don't seem horrible, until you take a closer look and realize that they've attempted 79 running plays to their opponents' 65 attempts, meaning that opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per attempt and the Steelers are averaging 3.3.  As the Painter-led touchdown drive in the fourth quarter showed, the Steelers can make anyone look like an all-star if they're playing off balance on defense.  I know that the NFL is rapidly becoming a passing league and that running the ball and being able to stop the run are less important than they once were.  But, the Steeler defense has always thrived when they're able to make an opposing offense one dimensional and struggled against balanced offenses.  Then there's the fact that the defense is old and gets progressively worse when they have to stay on the field for long periods of time.  An offense that is balanced possesses the football, meaning that the defense will fare that much worse as the game wears on.
3. Houston will absolutely crush the Steelers -- like hated Ravens bad -- if they play this way against the Texans in Week 4.  I'm not saying that Houston is a rolling juggernaut, I'm saying that, when they play really well, it's when they establish the run and execute a balanced offense.  They are considerably better at that process than the Manning-less Colts, which means it will take a big effort from the Steelers defense to prevent Matt Schaub and company from getting into a rhythm.  
4. Three turnovers lost, one turnover forced.  That makes ten turnovers lost for the season and one turnover forced.  This needs to change.  I don't care what weird stuff they need Polamalu to do to change this trend, but they need to change it.  It's not even like there have been a lot of close calls.  Like, a ball gets tipped in the air and no one gets there on time to intercept it or that there have been a lot of dropped interceptions.  There haven't been a bunch of forced fumbles that the offense just happened to fall on.  There haven't been many opportunities created for turnovers, which is why there has only been one forced turnover.  Granted, it was a really critical forced turnover, but the Steelers need to work on getting over to the plus side of things.

I left the fact that Freeney and Robert Mathis treated Roethlisberger like a pinata for most of the game out of the Bad News section, since I feel as though those two guys just played tremendous games.  Yes, Gilbert and Scott were pretty easy match-ups for them, but you still have to go out and actually make the plays.  Dear God, did they ever.  So, I tip my cap to them.  I'm glad that their utter dominance didn't help carry their team to victory.

Also, I didn't want to list too many of the good things that the Colts did as bad news.  They played a much stronger game than I thought they would and deserve credit for rallying to tie the game after the sack-fumble-touchdown in the fourth quarter.  I honestly thought they'd curl up into a ball and allow the Steelers to pad their lead, but that was not the case.  I don't think that Indianapolis is a playoff team, but this is definitely a game that they can build on.  The Bills started out 0-8 last year, turned things around a little bit and finishing with a 4-4 record in their last eight games.  This season, they're building on the positive aspects of last season and they're doing well thus far in 2011.

But, since this site is not called Colts N At, I'll shut up about them already.

A win's a win.  Here's to me writing that again next week.

Weidman's Picks, Week 3

Okay...I took a bath last week. I went for some dogs and took some gut risks. This week's picks will be a bit more conservative.

San Fran at Cincinnati
Two not so great teams meeting up in this match, so I don't expect much. Both lost last week, so there's not even that much to look for an edge there. Call it Cincy by a hair.

New England at Buffalo
Buffalo put on a great show last week with a tight come-from-behind win against Oakland. That being said, I'm still not ready to bet against Brady.

Houston at NOLA
Houston is coming on strong with a perfect record so far, while New Orleans is 1-and-1. However, who have they beaten? A disorganized Indianapolis and a mediocre Miami. On the other hand, the Saints beat the Bears and lost to Green Bay in a slugfest. I see NOLA coming out on top in this one.

Giants at Philly
The big question on this game is, "is Vick going to play." If he does, then the Eagles will win. If he doesn't...well, the Eagles are probably still going to win. Philly has won the last 6 meetings between the teams, making this a safe bet. The Giants are going to come angry, but I still think Philly is the better team.

Cleveland vs Miami
Ugh. Another crappy match-up. Cleveland is tied up, whereas Miami is winless. I don't see much out of either team this season, but Cleveland should come out ahead this week.

Denver at Tennessee
Again, Homer Simpson owned the Broncos, and Tennessee beat the Ravens. This isn't too tough of a call.

Detroit vs Minnesota
I really can't believe that I'm saying this...man, this hurts...but Detroit is the better team. 2-0 vs 0-2? Come on. McNabb is lost, and Stafford is looking good. Difficulty: Stafford is my fantasy QB.

Jacksonville at Carolina
Historically, I've thought a lot of the Jags, but they've been struggling this season - and three points against the Jets last week. Panthers.

Kansas City at San Diego
The Chargers lost last week, but to the Pats, and they put up a hell of a fight against them, whereas the Chiefs have put up 10 points all season.

Jets vs Oakland
This is a coin-flip game for me. Both teams are playing strong, and the Raiders lost a tough one last week. Are they going to bring extra this week to make up for it, or fold in shame? I know that the Jets are favored, but...I think that Oakland might pull this out.

Baltimore at St. Louis
I think that the Ravens are playing the part of a pendulum. They kicked the ever-living shit out of us, then got cocky and lost to the Titans. This week, they're going to swing back towards the other side and beat the Rams. Maybe not as much as they did to us, but win they will.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay
I really, really didn't see ATL beating Philly last week, but they did. Tampa Bay is looking good, but the teams are evenly matched. I bet against the Falcons last week in a tight matchup and got burned - I'm not going to do that again this week.

Arizona at Seattle
Steelers West, all the way. Seattle's got nothing this season.

Green Bay at Chicago
Can anyone beat GB this year? Probably, but I don't think it's gonna be the Bears.

Pittsburgh at Indy
Okay...we didn't show up week one, and we dominated week two. A lot of what they say about the Steelers is true: We're old, we're slow and we're unpredictable. On the other hand, we're still the Steelers, and Indy is proving that, without Manning, they have no clue what they're doing.

Washington at Dallas
This is a tough call. Washington has looked good, but it's MNF - that's a lot of pressure on a new (to the team) QB, and Dallas just looks better.

Cincinnati over San Fran
New England over Buffalo
Philly over Giants
NOLA over Houston
Cleveland over Miami
Tennessee over Denver
Detroit over Minnesota
Carolina over Jacksonville
San Diego over Kansas City
Oakland over Jets
Baltimore over St. Louis
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Arizona over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
Pittsburgh over Indy
Dallas over Washington

Ready for Primetime: Steelers at Colts Preview

I spent a great deal of time thinking about how the league must be kicking themselves for scheduling this on Sunday Night Football, but I came up short.  Let's just go ahead and continue like I came up with something and that it was hilarious.

About the time the lockout ended, I looked at the schedule and actually thought that the Steelers would stand a good chance of winning this game even if Peyton Manning wasn't trolling Europe, looking under couch cushions to find some stem cells to heal his neck.  I knew that the Colts had been taking on water for some time.  A big reason that they finished 10-6 last season and won the division was that Manning grew two extra arms and grabbed four big buckets.  He bailed them out last year and they got worse in the offseason. 

They now have a rookie at left tackle, they let their second-best offensive lineman (Kyle DeVan) and best defensive player (Clint Session) walk.  Suitable replacements were not found in free agency or the draft.  Their old guys got a year older.  Two of their big stars -- Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney -- are still very good players, but they're no longer the unstoppable forces that they once were.  If they match up against a guy that's either young or crappy, then they have a big game.  Freeney has a shot at big game, since he's up against Jonathan Scott, who is young and possibly crappy.  Wayne will probably draw Ike Taylor, who is neither young nor crappy, so don't start Wayne in your fantasy league if you have other options.

As a matter of fact, I was holding on to Pierre Garcon in one of my leagues so that I could start him against Bryant McFadden this week (anyone who draws McFadden has a huge game).  Then William Gay had to go and screw all that up by playing well last week, so he's starting even though McFadden is healthy.  Austin Collie and Dallas Clark are possibilities, but they would need to be the first or second option for Kerry Collins to get any action, since I think the Steeler pass rush will have a big day on Sunday night and Collins won't have time to get to his third or fourth read.

So, Indianapolis doesn't have Manning and their offensive line is sketchy at best.  They haven't been able to run the ball at all the past three seasons and the Steelers have had an outstanding run defense since 1992, which means that it will be a lot of Collins running for his life.  Collins never ran that well to begin with and I'm guessing that being 38 and retired all offseason hasn't made him any faster.

Then you have their injury report for this week and it shows that the only good news is that Robert Mathis practiced and should play Sunday night.  Mathis is up against Marcus Gilbert, who is making only his second start.  Crowd noise will play a factor.  If the Colts can force an early turnover or two and convert those into points, then they can win this game.  This team is built to keep crushing down opponents after they get a lead and a lot of those pieces are still in place, even with Manning gone and Freeney not as good as he used to be.  The trouble is that Indianapolis has been having a really tough time scoring points at all, nonetheless building a lead (against pretty shaky defenses in Houston and Cleveland), and the Steelers don't exactly suck on defense.

I think there are two ways this game could shake out:

1. Colts keep it close in the first half -- a field goal or a touchdown on either side -- but the Steelers lean on Indy until they fall over, much like the second half of the Seahawks game, just with a smaller lead coming out of halftime.
2. The Steelers jump out to a big first half lead, the Colts coaches decide they need a change, and Curtis Painter goes into the game at quarterback for Indianapolis.

I fully expect option #1 to happen, since I don't think that the Steelers are "there" enough to jump out to a big first half lead.

If they do, this game has the potential to get really, really ugly for the Colts.  Kerry Collins isn't a world-beater, but Painter makes him look like a Voltron quarterback combining Michael Vick's legs, John Elway's arm, Tom Brady's awareness, Peyton Manning's preparation, and Ben Roethlisberger's improvisational skills.  Well, so, that's a real overstatement.  But the point remains that Painter sucks something awful. 

If he gets into the game, it will be like when Charlie Frye would come into Browns games late, when the contest had already been all but decided and the coaches wanted to see what he could do.  What he usually did was throw a couple of six yard skippers on seven yard outs, get sacked a bunch, sometimes throw interceptions, and fumble every third time he got sacked.  So, I guess Curtis Painter is a re-incarnation of Charlie Frye, which is bad news for a Colts team that has already endured a good deal of that in the last month.


It's a game the Steelers can win, a game they should win, and a game they damn-well better win.  But, I still don't think it's going to be a blowout (just like in Week 2, I don't they cover the 10.5 point spread).

Prediction:
Steelers 21, Colts 10

Office Pool Pick 'Em

This is the magical time of year where the real games seem too take a back seat to the fake games played in offices around the country: Fantasy football and office pick 'ems. When my sister-in-law asked me to help her with her picks for her weekly office pool, it occurred to me that she's not alone in looking for guidance.

Thing is, it's really a crapshoot.

What everyone from Coach, Dan, Shannon and Boomer, to the woman at the front desk who picks based on who has the prettier jerseys (and frustratingly, usually wins) doesn't want you to know is that anyone can win on any given Sunday and no one really knows how it's going to turn out. Someone should fit that into a movie. If this stuff was easy, we'd all just bet the line every week and rack up lots of fake money in MyBookie - and, frankly, that's what makes it so much fun.

What Keller and I decided to do was to give all of our readers out there two sets of picks for their office pools each week based on our methods. Keller, with his quarterback ratings, point-spreads, Vegas lines, conference records, scouting reports and weekly analysis...And me, with my basis of which team has players on my fantasy team (guaranteeing a loss) and which team is more likely to hate Ray Lewis. (Look, there's a reason I usually write for Arena Football.)

We're going to give you our picks and keep a running tally here each week (So bookmark this page!) Given the Rule of Secretaries, we've got equal chances of being right. Digging deep, we've put $50 on the line - a sum that exceeds the total annual budget of Steelers 'N At by...well, $50 - and the winner at the end of the season takes all.

We didn't start this last week for the following, scientific reason:

• We didn't think of it.

So, we hope that our picks will be of some use to you weekly pools, and check back each week for our latest. Be sure to let us know in the comments what you think!

Weidman's Picks, Week 17...................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 17
Weidman's Picks, Week 16...................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 16
Weidman's Picks, Week 15...................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 15
Weidman's Picks, Week 14...................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 14
Weidman's Picks, Week 13...................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 13
Weidman's Picks, Week 12...................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 12
Weidman's Picks, Week 11...................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 11
Weidman's Pick, Week 10....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 10
Weidman's Picks, Week 9.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 9
Weidman's Picks, Week 8.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 8
Weidman's Picks, Week 7.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 7
Weidman's Picks, Week 6.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 6
Weidman's Picks, Week 5.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 5
Weidman's Picks, Week 4.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 4
Weidman's Picks, Week 3.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 3
Weidman's Picks, Week 2.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 2

Keller's Picks, Week 3

Since I dominated last week, with a 12-4 record, I think that it's safe to say I just need to keep on keepin' on and trust my (mostly) infallible system.  I need to make one adjustment, since I have to admit Weidman is right.  Never bet against Tom Brady.

New England at Buffalo:

Never bet against Tom Brady.  The Bills have looked pretty impressive thus far, but they also needed an epic comeback to beat the Oakland Raiders.  This Buffalo team strikes me as one that's good against bad teams, but not quite ready to make the leap and play with the big boys.

Detroit at Minnesota:

The Lions are a team on the rise and they've actually turned things around on the road.  At one point, they had like a three year span where they lost all road games.  Now, I think they're riding a seven game streak.  They beat Tampa on the road in Week 1 and crushed the Chiefs last week.  I don't think they win the division, but they're good enough to beat a bad Vikings team.  They also have enough talent on the defensive line that they should to be able to contain Adrian Peterson for the most part.  That means the game falls on McNabb's shoulders, which is never a good thing.

NY Giants at Philly:

It looks like Mike Vick will play.  But, even if he wasn't going to suit up, I'd still take the Eagles and their cockroach quarterback.  The Giants are cresting the bottom of the, "Guys are starting to get healthy, we just need to hang in there," wave and Philly's guys are hanging ten on the, "Let's rally around the replacement!" wave.  It's a division game and it'll be tough, but I still like the Eagles.

Jacksonville at Carolina:

God help me, I am picking the Panthers.  They're playing at home, where they played the Packers tough last week, and the Jags are welcoming in the Blaine Gabbert Era.  All rookie quarterbacks making their first start have Projected QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) Index of 6.  Cam Newton had one of those, too, he just beat the projection.  I don't think Gabbert does.

San Francisco at Cincinnati:

I'm in doubt.  I'm picking the home team.  Also, the Bungles are 2.5 point favorites.  If you're not in doubt, that looks like a pretty attractive moneyline at +130.

Houston at NOLA:

Texans are 2-0, but they effectively faced two cream puffs.  This just smells like a game they'll blow.  NOLA plays better at home in the dome and blew out a good Bears team last week after narrowly losing to the defending champs on opening in at Lambeau.  I think it's safe to say they're for real.  If Houston beats them in their own house, then Houston is for real.  The Texans are an expansion team, so they cannot be real.

Miami at Cleveland:

I know the Dolphins gave up a kazillion yards in Week 1 against the Patriots, but everyone's giving up a kazillion yards against the Patriots.  I think their defense is sneaky good and underrated.  I think the Browns run defense is susceptible to Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush.  Also, the Dolphins only lose games at home and I feel that it is my duty, as a trained expert, to point out that they are playing the Cleveland Browns.

Denver at Tennessee:

This is my Lock of the Week.  I think the Titans will win and cover, since they're a team that I feel will follow a dominant home performance with a dominant home performance.  Then there's the fact that half of Denver's defensive line is hurt and their run defense sucked to begin with.  I would like to take this opportunity to add that Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer are good players.

Kansas City at San Diego:

The Chiefs lost their best defensive player (Eric Berry) and their best offensive player (Jamaal Charles).  The Chargers are at home and are probably mad that they lost to New England.

Hated Ravens at St. Louis:

I don't think that Baltimore suffers two letdown losses in a row on the road.  If Steven Jackson was 100%, I'd give the Rams a fighting chance.  But, he's not, and they're not a great team.  The hated Ravens, much as I hate to say it and much as their performance in Nashville in Week 2 seems to suggest otherwise, are a great team.

NY Jets at Oakland:

Hey, so, the Jets played a team last week in Jacksonville that has a questionable quarterback, a great running back, and a bunch of athletic receivers that are unreliable.  They won that game 32-3.  I don't care that they're on the road.

Green Bay at Chicago:

I went back and forth on this one.  I was almost in doubt, which would mean trust the home team.  I think the loss of Nick Collins is going to hurt the Packers a great deal on defense.  But, Jay Cutler doesn't have an offensive line and the Green Bay pass rush is going to destroy him.

Atlanta at Tampa:

I'm picking a lot of road teams this week and that seriously worries me.  But, I think that Tampa is overrated and that the Falcons will take care of business.  Plus which, this game doesn't have much letdown potential (road loss to an inferior team after a big home win; see: hated Ravens, Baltimore, Week 2) since most analysts are saying Atlanta didn't deserve to beat Philly because Vick got hurt.  That gives them the opportunity to play the "No Respect" card and Mike Smith is smart enough to use that as a motivator.

Arizona at Seattle:

Both these teams are craptastic, but you gotta pick someone, right?  I'm going with the home team -- Seattle actually has a great home crowd and they're much tougher there.  Should also be enough players left from last year's roster that they understand this: A 7-9 record could win this division and they just got their butts kicked by the Steelers, so they need to win a division game at home.

Steelers at Indianapolis:

We'll have a more thorough breakdown of this game later this week.  Bottom line, Kerry Collins should not have come out of retirement.  One of these weeks, some team is going to chase him out of the game and they will be a very lucky team.  That will mean that Curtis Painter will come in and Curtis Painter is a horrible, horrible quarterback.  I think Collins gets chased out by halftime.

Washington at Dallas:

I hate to pick the Cowboys, but I gotta do it.  I think the Redskins jumped out to a 2-0 record with smoke and mirrors and they eventually need to come down to Earth.  Dallas has been in both their games, overcame some adversity, and fought strong.  The football gods tend to reward that kind of thing.

Moneyline of the Week:


Gotta be Atlanta at Tampa.  It's possible that the Falcons could lose.  Anything is possible.  But, I don't see it.  This is the smartest play, since, at +115, you can win some money by playing Atlanta.

The other possibility is KC at San Diego.  I know the Chiefs have looked awful and there's no reason they should win this game.  However, it's a division game, which means that it could be tight.  The Chargers will only lose if they have a couple of big special teams breakdowns, but their special teams also suck.  The moneyline is +671.  That's worth a shot, right?  I'm not saying the Chiefs are a lock to win.  I think that taking Atlanta and the moneyline is a smarter bet.  But... maybe $20 to win $140?  In a division game?

Line of the Week:


I think the Bills beat the spread, which is 9.  I'm not betting against Tom Brady.  I think the Pats still win this game.  But, Buffalo has scored 79 points in their first two games and New England's defense sucks.  That means the Patriots would need to win 45-35 (or something) in order to cover.  Again, sure, it's possible, but I don't think it's bloody likely.

Summary:


Patriots over Bills
Lions over Vikings
Eagles over Giants
Panthers over Jaguars
Bengals over 49ers
Saints over Texans
Dolphins over Browns
Titans over Broncos
Chargers over Chiefs
Hated Ravens over Rams
Jets over Raiders
Packers over Bears
Falcons over Tampa
Seahawks over Cardinals
Steelers over Colts
Cowboys over Redskins

Good News and Bad News: Seahawks at Steelers

I actually don't have a ton of good news, which is rare following a 24 point shutout victory:

1. The Steelers won, which means they didn't lose.  A win's a win, but a loss would have been pretty humiliating.
2. They didn't turn the ball over seven times.  In fact, they didn't turn the ball over at all.
3. They used Mike Wallace in a number of different ways, including throwing the ball deep to him.  He cashed in on that play with a tremendous catch.
4. Marcus Gilbert played well and Robert Mathis might still be out of the line-up on Sunday night, so Gilbert might get another free pass in Week 3.  He needs time to adjust and settle in.  Practice helps, but there's no substitute for in-game experience.
5. William Gay and Ike Taylor both played well.  As a matter of fact, Gay played so well that I think the Steelers should keep him in the line-up.  I know I defended Bryant McFadden last season, but the guy isn't very good and he's certainly not as good as Gay.  Gay had a rough 2009, which is why they brought McFadden back last season, but I think it's time to give 22 another shot and see what he does with it.
6. The offensive and defensive lines controlled the line of scrimmage for almost the entire game.  Running the ball in goal-to-go situations is still dicey, but we're talking about good news here.
7. Tennessee beat the hated Ravens, which means there's a four-way tie in the AFC North.  A four-way tie is much better than being one game back of Baltimore, with them holding the tie-breaker.

Still more good news than bad news, though:

1. They also didn't force any turnovers on defense.  That means the defense has gone three straight games (two games this season and the Super Bowl) without forcing a turnover.  They're going to need to be on the plus side of the turnover margin when they play better teams.
2. Rashard Mendenhall had 19 carries for 66 yards.  Sure, he had a touchdown and sure it was a one-yarder, but the Steelers also ran four plays from the one yard line on the opening drive and came up with nothing.  Ike Redman averaged 4.9 yards a carry and also had a score, which may only be bad news for me, since I have Mendenhall on my fantasy team.
3. They were 2-for-4 in the red zone and 1-for-3 in goal-to-go.  Again, these are things that will come back to haunt them when they're playing better teams (hopefully in the playoffs).
4. Someone needs to fire the spotter that told Mike Tomlin to challenge that fourth and goal play on the first drive.
5. I can't tell if it's just that the Seattle passing game is really craptastic or if the secondary and pass rush actually performed well.  It's probably a little of both.  Maybe this is "neutral" or "meh" news.

The point is that they won and they needed to win.  Baltimore losing as well is a bonus.  But, I didn't get the sense that they went out on the field on Sunday and just pummeled the Seahawks into submission.  I didn't watch much of the Seattle-San Francisco game in Week 1, I was just going off of what I saw on the Seahawks roster. 

From what I saw on Sunday, I think it was more a case of Seattle having a bad team than it is of the Steelers playing really well.  After the game, I didn't have that satisfying feeling that I get after my blowout bloodlust has been satiated.  I felt very ambivalent about the victory.  Kind of like, "Oh, OK, well they won.  That's good." 

The Steelers didn't beat the Seahawks down.  They just seemed to... kinda... lean on the Seahawks until they fell over.  Then they spent most of the fourth quarter laying on top of Seattle, grabbing them by the wrists, and making them punch themselves in the face while repeating, "Quit hitting yourself, quit hitting yourself."

They only allowed eight first downs.  Marshawn Lynch rushed six times for 11 yards.  They had a 39-21 minute advantage in time of possession.  It was a game they statistically dominated, but I don't think it was a dominant performance. 

Sunday's game doesn't fix everything, it just helps to patch up a lot of the structural issues that were exposed/caused by the hated Ravens in Week 1.  A win in Week 3 against the Colts with similar results will make me think the Steelers are continuing on the right path.

Seahawks at Steelers Preview

I stalled on this one for two reasons.  First, I had to turn in my picks for our new Pick Em series.  Second, I really wasn't sure what to write, aside from, "The Steelers really, really should win this game."

So, the Steelers really, really should win this game.

I don't think that Seattle is a horrible team and, even if they're a west coast team playing at 1 p.m. Eastern time on the road, I don't think that they're that much worse than the Steelers.  The line for this game opened at 16, which is fairly insane.  I think enough people took advantage of that crazy line and it eventually moved to 14.  But, then I guess enough crazy, drunken Steeler fans saw that as easy money and it moved back to 15.  I think that 15 is just as crazy a line.

Don't get me wrong, I believe the Steelers will definitely win on Sunday.  I just don't think they'll win by 15.  I could see a ten point victory or even two touchdowns, but they'd need a 31-14 or 31-13 win and I don't think the offense is ready to score that many points.  After all, who would be dumb enough to predict a 31-13 final?

You can talk all you want about talent on defense and the potential the Steelers have on offense.  You can talk about how Tavarris Jackson is a dreadful, dreadful quarterback and Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five guy, but the fact remains that Jackson had a higher passer rating in Week 1 than Roethlisberger.  The Seahawks actually played a solid defensive game against the 49ers last week, they just played absolutely crappy special teams.  This could be a close game or even a Seattle win if the Steelers turn the ball over seven times or they have a couple of meltdowns on special teams.

Having said that, I also picked the Steelers in my NFL Survivor Pool this week, so I still think they're going to win.

When you play as badly as the Steelers did against the hated Ravens in Week 1, you have a long list of things to fix.  It would be naive to think that all those issues could suddenly be resolved in the space of seven days, just because our guys are "mad and determined" and their guys are "not very good."  Our guys are mad and determined and their guys aren't very good, but that doesn't mean this turns into a blowout.  This week and next week are all about getting a little bit better each time, rounding into regular season form, and hopefully picking up a couple of victories in the process.

Seattle may be a force in few years because they have a lot of youth and a lot of talent.  Currently, their coach is Pete Carroll and their quarterback is Tavarris Jackson, so I can't say they scare me.

In addition, this game gives Marcus Gilbert an opportunity to ease into the starting right tackle job.  The Steelers talked to Flozell Adams after Willie Colon went on injured reserve, but Adams was asking for the sky.  They signed some dude named Jamon Meredith for insurance, but, in the end, they did what they always do: They went in-house.  I think that's the right move.  Meredith would be a plug-in guy and Adams would be an extremely expensive band aid.  Maybe Colon comes back next year and plays well, or maybe he's discovered to be too fragile to be depended upon.  If he can't be depended upon, then the Steelers would be stuck in the same situation going into camp next year that they were this year: Adams is old and expensive and isn't the future.

When the Steelers drafted Gilbert, I originally thought he'd be a great fit at right tackle.  I had also assumed that Max Starks -- another big guy that played left tackle at Florida and needed to make the transition to the right side -- would be able to work with Gilbert and keep him from making the same mistakes Starks made.  Well, Starks got cut, Gilbert was hurt early in training camp, then he spent all of his time at left tackle.  Adams made a pretty smooth transition to the right side and that was after a lifetime of playing left tackle.  Gilbert should need less time, but more attention, since he's doesn't have to unlearn as many left tackle habits, but he needs to be trained on how to play right tackle.

Gilbert is a good move for now and for the future.  But, I'm also thinking that he'll need some time and attention, which is why it's good that he didn't have to jump in and make his first start at right tackle against the hated Ravens or Patriots.  He gets this week to get his feet wet and get settled, then he has Robert Mathis next week.  I hope he's ready.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Seahawks 17

Office Pool Pick 'Em

This is the magical time of year where the real games seem too take a back seat to the fake games played in offices around the country: Fantasy football and office pick 'ems. When my sister-in-law asked me to help her with her picks for her weekly office pool, it occurred to me that she's not alone in looking for guidance.

Thing is, it's really a crapshoot.

What everyone from Coach, Dan, Shannon and Boomer, to the woman at the front desk who picks based on who has the prettier jerseys (and frustratingly, usually wins) doesn't want you to know is that anyone can win on any given Sunday and no one really knows how it's going to turn out. Someone should fit that into a movie. If this stuff was easy, we'd all just bet the line every week and rack up lots of fake money in MyBookie - and, frankly, that's what makes it so much fun.

What Keller and I decided to do was to give all of our readers out there two sets of picks for their office pools each week based on our methods. Keller, with his quarterback ratings, point-spreads, Vegas lines, conference records, scouting reports and weekly analysis...And me, with my basis of which team has players on my fantasy team (guaranteeing a loss) and which team is more likely to hate Ray Lewis. (Look, there's a reason I usually write for Arena Football.)

We're going to give you our picks and keep a running tally here each week (So bookmark this page!) Given the Rule of Secretaries, we've got equal chances of being right. Digging deep, we've put $50 on the line - a sum that exceeds the total annual budget of Steelers 'N At by...well, $50 - and the winner at the end of the season takes all.

We didn't start this last week for the following, scientific reason:

• We didn't think of it.

So, we hope that our picks will be of some use to you weekly pools, and check back each week for our latest. Be sure to let us know in the comments what you think!


Weidman's Picks, Week 2.............................................Keller's Picks, Week 2
Weidman's Picks, Week 3.....................................................................Keller's Picks, Week 3

Keller's Picks, Week 2

In deciding my picks each week, I follow these rules:

1. It's a quarterback-driven league at this point. With that in mind, I have invented a new quarterback metric: QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) Index. I thought the name of the metric would immediately discount my credibility, but I think it's funny, so I'll keep it. It is a number between 1 and 100 that indicates how good I think I particular quarterback is from week to week (highest score wins). I also think that it adds to my credibility that I have enough general football knowledge that I don't need to Google Bert Jones to get the joke. Just in case, here's some perspective.
2. When in doubt, pick the home team. According to Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ), the home team finished 157-110 last season, with a winning percentage of .610. That means you have a pretty good statistical probability of picking the right team if you just choose the home team.
3. Would I bet the team to win outright, regardless of spread? Most pick 'em leagues are win/loss and don't factor the spread. That's what my predictions and Weidman's predictions assume. If you'd bet on them to win outright, why not pick them to win in your pick 'em?

Seattle at Steelers

The line is Steelers by 15, so I feel comfortable picking them outright. No matter how bad Ben Roethlisberger was last week, he's still gotta have a better QBERT rating than Tavaris Jackson's -8. Seahawks are a west coast team and kickoff will be at 10 a.m. their time.

Kansas City at Detroit

Matthew Stafford or Matt Cassel? Tough call. The Chiefs looked horrible against the Bills last week and Detroit looked pretty good against Tampa, but they're still the Lions. Hard to say. When in doubt, pick the home team.

Cleveland at Indianapolis

I think that, if Andy Dalton can beat this team, Kerry Collins can beat this team. I mean... it's Cleveland.

Baltimore at Tennessee

The hated Ravens are a possible letdown candidate in this one, especially since it's on the road. However, Matt Hasselbeck's squad got beat by a shoddy Jacksonville team last week that was quarterbacked by Josh McCown. McCown had been the starting quarterback for less time than I let food sit in my fridge, and I'm pretty anal about that. Maybe Baltimore squeaks one out, but they win.

Oakland at Buffalo

Sit back and think about this: Are you comfortable with the phrase, "2-0 Oakland Raiders"? Neither am I.

Arizona at Washington

I don't trust Rex Grossman, but I trust him enough to exploit a Steelers West defense that allowed 422 passing yards to Cam Newton in his first ever NFL start. I think he'll get enough done (at home) to beat the Cardinals.

Tampa at Minnesota

The Bucs are good enough to win this game and the Vikings are bad enough to blow it. I don't care if Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are really good players. This team passed for 28 yards against the Chargers last week. I'll take Josh Freeman over a washed up Donovan McNabb any week, including this one.

Jacksonville at Jets

I know New York barely escaped the Cowboys last week, but they also played like crap in Week 1 last season and turned things around in short order. Then, you have the aforementioned Luke McCown facing a Rex Ryan defense on the road in his second week as a starter. Too much for the Jags to overcome.

Chicago at New Orleans

Can't bet against the Saints at home coming off a tough loss to the Packers on opening night. The Bears looked awfully good against the Falcons last week, but Drew Brees looked awfully good against a Packers defense that's better than the Chicago defense he will face this week. On the other side, you have turnover machine Jay Cutler. I hate Jay Cutler's face. That swings it as much as anything.

Green Bay at Carolina

Aaron Rodgers has a permanent QBERT score of 95, until that changes. That beats Cam Newton and the rebuilding Panthers, even on the road.

Dallas at San Francisco

I know Tony Romo looked lost against the Jets, but can you really take Alex Smith over him? Even with Ted Ginn accounting for 98% of the 49ers total yards? I sure can't.

Cincinnati at Denver

Hey, the Broncos lost to the Raiders and the Raiders are a mess, but so are the Bengals. Actually, the Raiders are a mess and the Bengals are like one of those old ladies on Hoarders that has six dozen dead mice buried under back issues of Reader's Digest in her bedroom. Also, Denver is at home and they're especially tough at Mile High in the early parts of the season.

San Diego at New England

Tom Brady earned a 99 QBERT score on Monday night this week, even against a Miami defense that looked lost and overwhelmed. When Brady is comfortable, he's unbeatable. When he's tested, he breaks down. I think that the Chargers -- who held the Vikings to 28 yards passing last week and had the number one defense in the NFL last season -- will test Brady. San Diego matches up well against the Patriots and they have a number of fast, talented athletes on both sides of the ball.

Houston at Miami

I mentioned that the Patriots burned an overwhelmed Dolphins team on Monday night, right? Did I mention that the Texans have a talented group of receivers and Matt Schaub at quarterback? Well, consider it mentioned. I honestly believe that Miami has a better defense than they showed last week and that will become evident on Sunday, but I still think that it won't be enough.

Philadelphia at Atlanta

I almost was in doubt on this one and took the Falcons on this one. Then I remembered that the Atlanta defense can't tackle and they face some of the most elusive players in the NFL this week in LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick, and DeSean Jackson. Eagles win in a shoot-out.

St. Louis at Giants

Both teams are banged up. I think the Rams are a sneaky team this year and someone has to win the NFC West. But, the Giants are at home. They rallied against the Redskins last week, despite injuries, but ultimately came up short. I would also take a healthy Eli Manning over a wounded Sam Bradford.

Summary:

Steelers over Seahawks

Detroit over Kansas City

Indianapolis over Cleveland

Baltimore over Tennessee

Buffalo over Oakland

Washington over Arizona

Tampa over Minnesota

Jets over Jacksonville

New Orleans over Chicago

Green Bay over Carolina

Dallas over San Francisco

Denver over Cincinnati

San Diego over New England

Houston over Miami

Philadelphia over Atlanta

Giants over St. Louis

Weidman's Picks, Week 2

Seattle vs. Steelers
This one's easy for me - Steelers win this one, no problem. Not only are they favored, but Seattle's got a very young roster. Sure, that worked against us vs the Ravens, but in the case of Seattle, young = inexperienced. There are only 2 players or so still on the team from when we met up in the Super Bowl. Despite this, they're still not over it and the same ref is going to be in this game - so there will be tempers on their side of the line and a wishy-washy ref. However, I don't think that it will cause that much of a problem.

Kansas City vs. Detroit
The Lions suck now, they sucked then and they're gonna suck for the foreseeable. Don't waste your money and don't waste your time.

Cleveland vs. Indianapolis
This one's a little harder to call. Indy is feeling the loss of Manning and they had a real rough time of it last week. However, Cleveland is still Cleveland and lost by a hair to Cincy - another team I don't think much of.

Baltimore vs. Tennessee
Ravens are coming off an absolute thwumping of their most hated team in the history of ever last week. They're going to be swaggering ten-feet tall and feeling no pain. I see them parlaying that into another win this week. Difficulty: Cockiness and being on the road.

Oakland vs. Buffalo
What can I say? I grew up in upstate New York and I can't stand Oakland. Oakland is favored, but not by much. It's a home game for the Bills, and they stomped the Chiefs last week. I'm a little more concerned about them being cocky than the Ravens, but I see them pulling off the W.

Arizona vs. Washington
Both had equal scores and almost equal quarterback stats last week, but I'm going to go with Steelers West. I have to go with the better quarterback, or at least, the more comfortable one. Grossman is new to the team and there's just something about him that I'm not sure of.

Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota
I don't really have a dog in this fight. When in doubt, bet the line, which is a bare +3 for the Bucs. McNabb's looking shaky and that could make all the difference.

Jacksonville vs. NY Jets
I'd really like to say Jets, but...no. Jacksonville is a heavy favorite in this game, and I always hate when we have to play them (home or away.) They're one of the few teams that Tomlin has a losing record against, and we're better than the Jets.

Chicago vs. New Orleans
Chicago, no question. NOLA had its time in the sun, and they had a hell of a season opener against Green Bay, but I just don't have confidence in the team. The Bears are still Da Bears. Pick 'em.

Green Bay vs. Carolina
I'm going to buck the trend again here and pick the heavy underdog Pack. Home openers after a Super Bowl are hard to judge on. You're amped after a huge win, the crowd is eff'in nuts, the spotlight is on you and the season is just starting - however, they were just too solid to ignore. This is a risky pick, because Carolina is really, really good and GB is on the road - but I still take the Pack.

Dallas vs. San Fran
San Fran's not great, Dallas isn't looking good...it's a tough call. If you want to bet the line, go with the Niners, but I think Dallas has this one by a hair.

Cincinnati vs. Denver
Did Homer Simpson ever own the Bungles? No. I can't say much about Cincie, but I can say that they're going to squeak out a slim win over the Broncos.

San Diego vs. New England
I don't care that the Chargers are favored by a touchdown - never bet against Brady. I can't stand him, I can't stand the Pats and I can't stand their coach's stupid wardrobe, but they get results.

Houston vs. Miami
See the other game involving Florida. Bet the line and stay safe. Miami with a slight lead.

Philly vs. Atlanta
Atlanta only has a +1 pt advantage in this game, which might as well be a dead heat. This isn't the Gladiators vs the Power where it's going to come down to someone missing a PAT. Vick was a man with a plan last week, and he's going to his old stomping grounds. I won't bet against a QB facing his old team, and I'm not ready to bet against Vick at all right now.

St Louis vs. NY Giants
The Rams have the better team but only just. Based on last week's performance, it's not a Monday Night game that I'm excited about, but it's still MNF. Take the Rams by this >< much

Summary:
Steelers over Seattle
Kansas City over Detroit
Indianapolis over Cleveland
Baltimore over Tennessee
Buffalo over Oakland
Arizona over Washington
Tampa Bay over Minnesota
Jacksonville over NY Jets
Chicago over New Orleans
Green Bay over Carolina
Dallas over San Fran
Cincinnati over Denver
New England over San Diego
Miami over Houston
Philly over Atlanta
St Louis over NY Giants

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Hated Ravens

As far as good news is concerned, there isn't much to report:

1. I have Mike Wallace on my fantasy team, so that's at least something.
2. As my buddy Dan pointed out earlier today, we don't have to carry the stress of an undefeated season hanging over our heads.  We can relax in the knowledge that the Steelers are going to go 16-0 this season and we don't have to worry about it every week.
3. According to NFL bylaws, the Steelers will only be given one loss for yesterday's performance, instead of the three or four losses that they deserve.  That means that they're only 0-1 and there's a lot of season left to be played.
4. Ike Taylor looked good and effectively took Lee Evans out of the game.

There's lots of bad news, though:

1. The offensive line played pretty crappy.
2. Ben Roethlisberger got abused and was still in the game late in the fourth quarter, even though there was no chance for a comeback.
3. Rashard Mendenhall looked really tentative heading into the hole after that bumbled exchange/fumble in the third quarter.  He started out pretty strong, but the hated Ravens took him out of the game in the fourth quarter since the Steelers had to start throwing every down.
4. Seven turnovers.
5. Looks like Willie Colon got hurt.  Again.  So that's awesome.
6. The defense might have looked younger and more active had 74 year old Dick LeBeau thrown on some pads and ran out on to the field.
7. Bryant McFadden -- who I've defended in the past -- looked awful and the Steelers really need to think about getting Keenan Lewis or William Gay in there.
8. The Baltimore players were awfully proud of themselves after the game, which means they might not shut up about this victory until the Steelers play the hated Ravens again in November.  
9. My horribly, horribly misguided Preview will be on the Internet forever.
10. The biggest thing I got wrong in that Preview was that the hated Ravens were very, very ready for this game and the Steelers were absolutely not ready.
11. There were a lot of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest thing that concerned me was the way Baltimore blew the Steelers off the line on both sides of the ball.  Sure, it is possible that the guys on defense are older and slower, but they didn't get any smaller or weaker with age.  On offense, the line should have an advantage (I guess that's just in theory) because they know where they're supposed to go at the snap.  The defense shouldn't be able to jump to the ball faster than the offense because (again, in theory, since this isn't what we saw yesterday) they're supposed to be reacting and shouldn't know what's coming.

Now, for some perspective.

It's only one game and this is no time to panic.  They're not going to turn the ball over seven times in a game again this season.  Baltimore has a really good team and they played almost flawlessly yesterday.  The Steelers looked like a big pile of steaming crap, no doubt, but a big part of that was that the hated Ravens played exceptionally well.

The offensive line will play better.  In general, it would be difficult for the team to play much worse, so they will all play better in the next 15 games.  It will probably be several years before we see Roethlisberger play another stinker like that.

The pass rush will improve; playing against a much crappier team like the Seahawks or Manning-less Colts will help that along.

As I see it, the primary issue with the defense yesterday was that they were out of position for most of the game.  That made them have to hustle into position to get to the play.  When they got in position, they weren't able to square up and tackle.  This is responsible for two issues: The fact that they looked really slow and old and the fact that their tackling fundamentals were atrocious.

Pretty much everyone looks slow and old when they're chasing after Ray Rice.  Additionally, chasing guys down all day wears you out and makes you move even slower.  In previous seasons, LeBeau was able to insulate his guys from this by setting it out so that the play was always in front of them.  They were behind the play and doing a lot of chasing because the hated Ravens ran a lot of plays outside the hashmarks and most of the defense was jammed up in the middle of the field.  I'm sure the defense will be more spread out on Sunday against Seattle.  I'm sure the focus will be on getting to the quarterback and keeping everything in front of them.

McFadden does not get a pass on this.  You don't let Anquan Boldin get behind you if you give him a seven yard cushion at the snap.  That should never happen.

The other good news is that the Steelers know they have a lot of stuff they need to fix.  They may be able to fix everything by the time they play the Seahawks, but the other other good news is that they probably don't need to fix everything until they play Houston in Week 4, since they should be able to beat Seattle and the Colts without being 100% together.

And, hey, this also means that the Steelers will be the ones out for revenge come November.

Finally Football: Steelers at Hated Ravens Preview

At some point Thursday morning, I convinced myself that the Steelers were going to blow the hated Ravens out (win by at least two touchdowns).  I spent a lot of time between then and now trying to convince myself that it was a really, really dumb idea to think that.

I have been unsuccessful in being convincing enough to unconvince myself.  Therefore, I'm going to talk about why the Steelers will trounce Baltimore on Sunday.

The biggest reason is the fact that I think I overrated the hated Ravens.  I think that, even though I hate them more than any other professional sports team, I also respect and admire them.  I think that respect and admiration -- as well as all the positive press that has been flying around about them -- clouded my judgment.  The simple fact of the matter is that the hated Ravens are limited on both sides of the ball.

They have Ray Rice on offense and Rice is a fantastic player.  Aside from Rice, they have Lee Evans, who hasn't been relevant in some time, and Anquan Boldin, who caught all of 64 passes last year.  I think that Joe Flacco is a good quarterback.  At times he is a great quarterback.  His problem is that the Steelers make him look average.

On defense, they're very similar to the Steelers in that they have a lot of talent in the front seven, an outstanding safety, and marginal cornerbacks.  This means they're vulnerable in the secondary if the front seven doesn't get enough pressure.  That's the basic weakness of the Steeler defense, but the big difference is that Dick LeBeau seems to have successfully coached his cornerbacks to the point where they realize their limitations and don't take risks.  I don't see that with the Baltimore cornerbacks.  That means that they are vulnerable deep, which is where the Steelers like to throw the ball.  The Steelers have also shown a tendency in the preseason -- and have mentioned in interviews -- that they think they have the talent on offense to throw the ball a lot and score a bunch of points.

If you take a defense that struggles when it doesn't get pressure (hated Ravens posted only 27 sacks in 2010), add marginal cornerbacks that gamble too much, and put them up against an offense that will throw the ball a lot and likes to throw deep, it's a bad combination for that defense.  When you couple that with an offense that doesn't have much firepower that is run by a quarterback that struggles against the Steelers, you get a blowout.

Also, I keep thinking about the season opener in 2003.  The Steelers tuned up a high-powered offense in the preseason and hosted the hated Ravens at Heinz Field.  Everyone was expecting a tight, hard-hitting game, with very little scoring and a high quantity of three yards and a pile of dust.  Instead, Baltimore got smoked 34-15.  You could tell by watching that game that the Steelers were ready for the season to start and the hated Ravens were not.

In last night's game, you could tell that the Saints and Packers were ready for the season to start.  I think the Steelers are ready for the season to start.  I think the hated Ravens have added just the right number of new faces that they're not ready.  I think the Steelers will be a half step faster -- like they were in 2003 -- and they'll score quickly, like they did in 2003.  The hated Ravens will then start to overcompensate, because this is a bigger game for them (home game, they probably circled this game in April when the schedule came out, they've been looking to get past the Steelers since 2008).  The cornerbacks are going to start to gamble, the safeties will start to cheat, and we'll have the same situation as in 2003, where the hated Ravens made Jay Freakin' Riemersma look like an all-star.

It's entirely possible that I'm an idiot and it would not be the first time that I was proven to be horribly, horribly wrong.  It's very possible that the Steelers will not be ready for the blitz -- even though they must know it's coming -- just like they weren't ready against the Saints last season.  Ray Rice could take over this game all by himself.

It's just my opinion that the hated Ravens aren't ready to make that happen just yet.

Prediction:
Steelers 31, Hated Ravens 13

AFC North Preview

As I see it, this division breaks down to a couple of two-team races.

The Bengals and Browns are battling for third place, with the loser finishing last.  The Steelers and hated Ravens are battling for first place, with the loser finishing second.

As far as the first "race" is concerned, I think the Browns finish on top.  They seem more together, they have more talent, and they have a better owner.  Also, they have the cross-state rivalry with the Bengals and the one-sided rivalry with the Steelers.  The games are far more important to them than they are to the other team.  They're more important to the fans -- who still exist in Cleveland, which is surprising -- and the fans will show up, with a number of Browns faithful probably making the trip to Cincinnati for a road game.

Everyone in the AFC North gets to play the same, cushy schedule against the NFC West and the AFC South, which, for the time being, is minus Peyton Manning and has two rebuilding teams in the Titans and the Jaguars.  The two teams on the bottom half of the standings could take advantage of the soft schedule and bring the general record of the division up in the process.  But... there will probably be some Cardinals-Browns and 49ers-Bengals games later in the season that are only relevant for fantasy purposes.

For the other race in the division, that is a more complicated question.  Since the start of the 2008 season -- the beginning of the John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco Era -- the hated Ravens are 32-16 and the Steelers are 33-15.  (Side Note: Given John Harbaugh's success, at what point do we start referring to Jim Harbaugh as "John Harbaugh's Brother"?  Jim will, no doubt, crash and burn in San Francisco as a former college coach moving to a broken franchise with weak owners.  Once Jim starts to fail, this movement needs to start.)  The Steelers have two division titles and two playoff appearances, the hated Ravens have won zero division titles, but have been to the playoffs three times.  Baltimore wants to get to the Super Bowl and the Steelers are in the way.  In order to get where they need to get, the hated Ravens need to knock the Steelers out.

When the lockout ended, Baltimore cut Willis McGahee, Kelly Gregg, Todd Heap, and Derrick Mason.  I thought that they were purging their roster and starting a rebuilding process.  Then I realized that it was 2011 and not 2008 and that the hated Ravens were trying to cut some dead weight.  The Steelers effectively lost Flozell Adams and Max Starks, but the offensive line has looked at least equivalent this preseason.   The teams are basically even.

It will come down to Joe Flacco versus Ben Roethlisberger this season.  History says that we should back Roethlisberger.  Flacco did a good job with a marginal receiving corps last season.  This season, the team subtracted Mason and added Lee Evans.  Their top two guys are Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans.  Once again, it's 2011 and not 2008.

I think the Steelers and hated Ravens will beat common opponents and that the Steelers will get the best of Baltimore.

Thus, with a 12-4 record, the Steelers win the division.  I think they get the better of the hated Ravens over the course of the season.   I think that the difference will be Ben Roethlisberger over Joe Flacco.

For anyone that takes issue with this prediction, I would like to remind you that the name of this blog is "Steelers N At" and not "Ravens Rule, Hon!"  I try to remove myself from my fandom as much as possible, but sometimes emotion and team loyalty get in the way.

Official Predictions:

1. Steelers (12-4)
2. Hated Ravens (11-5)
3. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
4. Bengals (5-11)